Edited May 16 at 1:24 p.m.
Quoting: SNipeSHowInc
Explain why Marner isn’t worth 2 overall. I’ll accept that it doesn’t fit Chicagos needs right now to make that move, if that’s what you mean. But if you mean the player himself isn’t worth it then explain why Marner isn’t worth a 2nd overall
There are lots of reasons. He is a an almost 30 year old pending UFA with a massive contract that will command an even larger extension that can't seem to get the job done when it matters most. Regardless, no team in a position to have a 2nd overall pick has any business buying a "win now" player. Value isn't just determined by how many points a player can put up in a season. It is also heavily determined by the longevity of affordability, control, and the window that player gives you. It is also determined by whether they elevate their teammates, can take over and/or break important games, and rise to the occasion in the biggest moments. Which, none of TOR's guys with big contracts have done and somehow still got those big contracts. Kane and Toews didn't even get their $10.5M contracts and Full No Move Clauses until they had won 2 cups. What did Matthews, Marner, Tavares, and Nylander do?
Whoever CHI picks will still be a young man entering their second or third contract and still be under RFA control and should be able to give CHI 10-20 years total of production. At best, Marner gives us 8 years of production, but that is probably a stretch and I'd be willing to bet that he is in decline somewhere in the last few years of an 8 year extension, which means his cap hit becomes a problem when it matters most. Also, if Marner is willing to waive for and/or extend with CHI, that means he would be just as likely in free agency. So, if CHI actually has any interest in the first place, why wouldn't CHI just wait and not spend anything?
Who in their right mind would spend a 2nd overall pick on him, knowing all of this? There is almost no precedent for a trade such as this, with the closest in recent history being Debrincat for a 7th overall pick, and he was still under RFA control. The only teams I could see using such a high pick to acquire an established player would be ones that are near completion and just happened to have a bad season where they end up with a high pick and need a "win now" piece to take the roster to the next level. Even then, I could only see a pick in the 5-15 range or multiple later picks (plus) being used in such an acquisition, not a 2nd overall. The onus is on YOU/TORONTO to prove that he is worth it, not on anyone else to prove he isn't, but this should do the trick, anyway.