Marners Contract by the Numbers

Created by: tomkinoo

Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Feb. 7, 2019

Published: Feb. 7, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Legend

Left Handed

Original Team

Waivers Exempt

Right Handed

Position

Trade Clause

Max Perf. Bonus

Expiry Status

Term Remaining

McDavid, Connor

$12,500,000 ( Performance Bonus

$250,000)

NMC

UFA - 5

Description

First I'm going to use points per game on ELC vs % of cap

Nylander - 135PTS - 185GP = 0.73 pts/g - 6.962 AVV / 79.5 CAP = 8.77% of cap
Matthews - 179PTS - 183GP = 0.98 pts/g - 11.634 AVV / 83 CAP = 14.02% of cap

Marner - 191PTS - 207GP = 0.92 pts/g

If we want the pts per game ratio to % percentage of cap

Nylander - 0.73 / 8.77 = 0.083
Matthews - 0.98 / 14.02 = 0.070

Using Nylander's ratio - % of cap = 11.08 --> 9.196 AVV
Using Matthew's ratio - % of cap = 13.14 --> 10.906 AVV

Using the average of the two, which is fair because Marner isn't a center, but he's also a one of a kind winger - 12.11 % of cap --> 10.051 AVV

As an elite winger comparison, Kane got 11.09 % of the cap on a 5 year deal.

12.11 % of cap could either be for 5 or 6 years, I will calculate both just to see the difference.

I'm going to use Chris Johnston's tweet that speculates the AAV for an 8 year contract for Matthews as a reference to see how the term affects the AAV. Part of me believes the leafs organization actually leaked this number to calm the fan base about the 5 year term.

Here's the tweet - https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/1092859349473640452

5 year - 11.643 AAV / 83 CAP = 14.02%
8 year - 13.8 AAV / 83 CAP = 16.63%

That's a 0.87 % increase per year

5 year - 11.643 AAV
6 year - 12.359 AAV
7 year - 13.081 AAV
8 year - 13.8 AAV

Doing the same exercise with Marner's 12.11% of cap we got earlier...

First column will be for 12.11 % as the 5 year number, second as the 6 year number

5 year - 10.051 AAV - 9.329 AAV
6 year - 10.773 AAV - 10.051 AAV
7 year - 11.496 AAV - 10.773 AAV
8 year - 12.217 AAV - 11.496 AAV

I think the second column is more realistic if you consider Kane's 11.09% of the cap on a 5 year deal ( 9.205 AAV with a 83 CAP ).

Personally I'd rather the 6 x 10.051 to stagger the contracts and to leave more room for the Johnsson/Kapanen contracts.

*** Reminder that cap crunchs with talented young players are a good thing ***

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell		6	$10,051,600

Buyouts

Mikhail Grabovski: $0

Retained Salary Transactions

Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
15	$83,000,000	$71,111,299	$0	$0	$11,888,701

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Marleau, Patrick $700,000$700,000 LW, C UFA - 1	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 6	Marner, Mitchell $10,051,600$10,051,600 RW UFA - 6
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 2	Matthews, Auston $11,634,000$11,634,000 C UFA - 5	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 5
Brown, Connor $2,100,000$2,100,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Kadri, Nazem $4,500,000$4,500,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3
	Gauthier, Frédérik $675,000$675,000 C UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA - 3	Zaitsev, Nikita $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 5	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Muzzin, Jake $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD UFA - 1	Holl, Justin $675,000$675,000 RD UFA - 1
Dermott, Travis $863,333$863,333 LD/RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Horton, Nathan $5,300,000$5,300,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1

Top Comments

Feb. 7, 2019 at 2:52 p.m.

ChiHawk

Joined: Apr. 2017

Posts: 18,991

Likes: 9,300

Kudos for the analytics you put into this! applaud

tomkinoo, GMTD, TorontoUltraFan81 and 1 other person liked this.

Feb. 7, 2019 at 2:56 p.m.

swinny

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 4,783

Likes: 2,005

Ridiculously well thought out.

You might have to come back to this to see how close you are.

GMTD and ChiHawk liked this.

Feb. 7, 2019 at 2:59 p.m.

Juice

Joined: Apr. 2016

Posts: 3,301

Likes: 1,512

So...this is interesting work...I like what you did to show a statistical justification for a reasonable range...my biggest concern is that Marner doesn't look at himself as

Nylander < Marner < Matthews

he sees

Nylander < Marner = Matthews

So I think your numbers will be what Toronto is hoping to forecast since they value Matthews more as a goalscoring centre….but I would tack $500-$600k on to each range to account for the negotiation aspect with Marner's camp

GMTD liked this.

Feb. 7, 2019 at 3:04 p.m.

GMTD

Eichel Tower

Joined: Apr. 2017

Posts: 4,716

Likes: 2,441

Quoting: ChiHawk

Kudos for the analytics you put into this! applaud

Quoting: swinny

Ridiculously well thought out.

You might have to come back to this to see how close you are.

I think you nailed it, excellent job, you should do this for a living as either GM assistant or an agent.
WOW, that is amazing.

gretzkyghosts liked this.

Feb. 7, 2019 at 3:13 p.m.

tomkinoo

Dubas for Prez

Joined: Oct. 2018

Posts: 219

Likes: 57

Quoting: GMTD

I think you nailed it, excellent job, you should do this for a living as either GM assistant or an agent.
WOW, that is amazing.

Thank you, honestly I've only started deep diving into contracts AAVs after the Nylander contract was announced, but I originally thought between 6.3 AAV and 6.8 AAV was fair for Nylander. After looking into in further though, it's not a bad contract, the league is changing a lot and 9.196 % of the cap like I calculated above isn't far off from the league standard for players of his caliber . Gaudreau was 9.25 %, Pastrnak was 8.89, for reference

ChiHawk and Green4D4 liked this.

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