Hey i worked pretty hard on this, so plz dont be that leafs fan that's gonna come in and say marner is gonna make 8x8 at a 99 point pace despite being a franchise pillar and a top 5 RW imo (fyi, Kuch, Kane, Stone, Pasta, Mitch)
Here's the rundown
Off the books:
Gards: 4.05 (UFA)
Hainsey: 3 (UFA/Retirement)
Z: 4.5 (dumped for a 2nd and a spec or something like that)
Brown: 2.1 (traded at draft to a team lacking rw depth for like a 3rd and 4th)
Total Cap Relief: 13.65
Extensions:
AM: 11.634x5
Marner: 10.5x4 (signs a matthews-esk contract, both take them to ufa. Marner's camp think he's worth every bit matthews. I'd assume theyre looking for 11.616x4 (Or more with a longer contact, but the leafs would lose a lot of their ability to change the roster with less cap space). But maybe Dubas can sell C being more valuable than W, jersey sales compared to matthews (showing they make more money from matthews and therefore he is worth more [top selling jersey last year ahead of McDavid and Crosby while Mitch wasn't top 15]), and a slight discount on top of that just to get his cap hit rounded to a nice 10.5. Marner comes down from 11.616 to 10.5 on a shorter term, saving about 1.1 mil, but small discounts are huge for cash strapped teams and add up)
Kap: 4x3 (takes him to ufa, on a pretty team-friendly deal for what he provides and staggers matthews mitch and kap so the leafs can plan)
Johnsson: 2x2 (Bridge)
Ennis: 700x1 (Stays for the medical staff who have already helped him tremendously)
Oz: 925x2(Same contract, just extended 2 years for stability)
Lindholm (Traded/unsigned)
Adds: 29.53 (- current elc cost) about 25.4
Change: +11.7 mil
Current cap space without added players: About 10.5 mil (82 mil cap)
Leafs have the assets to orpik Marleau, and he'd agree to waive his no movement clause because he makes more money and helps the leafs cap wise. say he signs to 2x1. The team buying him out only having 1.25 mil against the cap and nothing year 2. Salary wise, only 416,667 thousand per season, so a team like arz could realistically do this without financial strain)
Cap space after: about 14.75
Forgot Sparks 925x1 prove that he can be a consistent nhl backup
Lindholm: 850x2 (cap space for more depth, can be let go if needed) (Not included in final cap space estimate as they let him go in this plan)
14.75-11.5= 3.25 under the cap to make a signing or a trade
It's possible if the leafs play their cards correctly, everything can go smoothly. They can replenish depth with that farm system they had built up over all of those bad years and low aav savy cap friendly *wink* depth signings. This is the model of success the penguins and black hawks have followed, keep your stars for about 5 years then lock them up 8 till the end of their carrer, while replenishing depth with through the draft in the 3rd-7th round, sometimes 1sts or 2nds if they weren't traded, but they could be used to add/modify your roster which will happen quite a lot while contending. Try to sign college free agents, they're low risk high reward. some times you get valuable players like Adam Oats, Blake Wheeler,Ed Belfore, and Joe Mullen. More recently guys like Kevin Hayes and Zach Aston Reese, and Will Butcher. This also applies to players out of mens leagues. Bring them to training camp and see what you have. Maybe someone that can be effective.
The point of this is to show the leafs can be a powerhouse for years to come with smart moves.
Here's the team lol thanks for reading my entire explanation if you got this far. Also i tweaked the contracts a few times so the final numbers could be slightly off but nothing more than a mil either way hopefully.
Theoretical trades/Signing/Lineup (This part isn't as important as the cap management, this is just to show how a possible roster could look like. I'm not a leafs fan, so i may not get everything right. This is just to show a roster potentially ice next year.
Lineup details:
Lilly plays 30-45 games, more if he looks good or he gets sent back to the ahl if he isnt ready. You give him a shot playing 2nd powerplay sometimes to let him work his offensive instincts. While in the ahl, he plays top PP and PK while honing his game to become more well rounded and nhl ready.
Give Marchment more time in the AHL, he can come up when marleau leaves next season
With the new cap space the leafs have, they address a the need for a top 4 RHD via FA. Jensen was traded at the deadline as a rental, hit FA, and the leafs sign him
They also sign veteran defenseman Ben Lovejoy to be a steady player and split games with Lilly. With Lovejoy, Lilly, and Holl, the leafs blue line can withstand an injury or 2 without falling apart. Also the leafs have flexibility with who they play every night with 8 nhl dmen every night.
Also I've spent way to much time on this, so the specs that need re-signed are all most likely gonna be in the ahl barring a call up due to injury. All to < 925k contacts
Low penalty on the cap and a small salary to pay (about 900k over 2 years), so the yotes pick up a mid round pick for relatively no negative consequences. Leafs do it to shed 4.25 in cap. Mutual low cost high return move.
The leafs get more cap space, get picks, and clear the log jam at RW (Marner, Nylander, Kapanen)
3.
TOR
Detriot acquires both picks and a project defenseman with a bad contact. The term really sinks Z's value. If they could Replenish Z, this trade looks pretty good for the wings.
McDavid, Connor
$250,000)
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