Leafs 2019-2020 and Thoughts

Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Apr. 27, 2019

Published: Apr. 27, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Going to give thoughts on the key areas / players for this offseason, sometimes it's best to write things down

MARNER CONTRACT:

Alright so I know I'm going to get a lot of flack for my number on the contract here, I've previously done an AGM where I broke down Marner's contract by the numbers. Using pts/game and percentage of cap. I'll put the link for that below. The number I came out was 10.051 AVV x 6 years. Now a lot of people seem to think he should be making the same as Matthews, and the calculations kind of debunks that because it mostly just looks at points and ignores position, nor does it give more importance for goals over assists, which Matthews obviously scores more of. So now I don't feel like coming out with some equation to calculate contracts based on goals or position, might explore that some other time, but it's definitely fair to say that centres are more important than wingers, and goals are more important than assists(especially considering secondary assists). So I'm going to shave 700k off the AVV, which will still leave Marner in the top 5 highest paid wingers in the league.

Most of you are going to come back and say Marner won't take 9.3 Mil, and you may be right. His agent has definitely lead us to believe this could be true, but I say we have to play hard ball. It's a shame he's the last contract of the big 3, because he definitely is the most beloved and I don't think we necessarily played it too hard on the Matthews or Nylander negotiations, but our future success really depends on Marner being signed at under 10 mil. I say we tell him, we will take our 4 1st round picks if you want your 10.15mil +... He really wants to play in Toronto, I'm sure he'll make some sacrifices to play here if we push him to

I think you could sell Marner on taking under 10 mil by making him understand the value of being the poster boy of the franchise, the hometown boy who took a hometown discount. We already know he's done ads with Apple, Intact Insurance, Bauer, Beats and Visa (I'm for sure missing a few). If he took a hometown discount he'd be even more marketable. John Tavares, another hometown kid, actually made 17.3M (23.31 M CAN) this year if you include his endorsement deals...

Link for contract calculations - https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1024463

NYLANDER:

"I don’t think we should worry about Nylander’s shooting percentage blip (5.4 percent) anymore than we worried about Nazem Kadri’s in 2015-16 (he followed up that season with back-to-back 30-goal seasons).

When we account for usage, Nylander actually had the best impact on 5-on-5 shots and expected goals among Leafs forwards. That’s largely because of his ability to move the puck up the ice with possession — an area where Matthews isn’t as strong. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Matthews began playing his best hockey when Nylander rejoined him at 5-on-5 (that line dominated play, controlling over 60 percent of the expected goals in the last month of the season)." - from Ian Tulloch's end of the season grades on the Athletic

The best defence is a good offence and Nylander tends to play in the offensive zone. Thats all I have to say to those who hate Nylander and say that he's soft, we are not trading Nylander. He's going to silence all the critics next year when he plays the whole season on Tavares or Matthews, mark my word

KADRI:

After game 7 I wanted to trade him, but that was just my emotions taking over. I think out of all players he should shoulder the series loss the most, completely selfish play. But after much thought, and a few sleeps , I think we should keep him. We've already came along way in his development as a player and I'm sure we can go even further so that he can control his emotions. He's a a great 2 way centre that can put up 30 goals if given the right wingers, 4.5 mil is a steal for him. Also if we tried to trade him we would be selling low on him considering the suspension and his low production this season. I'm expecting a big bounce back season out of him next year

KAPPY / JOHNSSON:

I'd love to resign both of them, but the more of these AGMs I do, the more I realize it might not be possible if we want to upgrade our D. Personally I'd rather trade Kapanen if we have to trade one of them, for 3 reasons. One, I think we would get more back for him in a trade. He's a first rounder which, unrightfully so, usually garners more interest. Also his speed will draw a lot of interest from teams looking to get younger and faster. Two, I think Johnsson is a more complete player. Kapanen is fast and can shoot, his passing leaves a lot to be desired. He also tends to enter the zone and take low percent shots instead of circling back to find a pass or getting down low and cycling the puck. Three, we are stronger on the right wing and have Bracco knocking at the door.

As far as their contracts, Connor Brown is a good comparable. Brown had 20 goals, 36 points in his contract year giving him a 2.1 MIL AVV x 3 years. At 20 goals and 44/43 points, with the cap going up I'm sure they'll fall between 2.5 - 3.25 MIL depending on if they want a 2 or a 3 year deals. I'd prefer 2 year deals for them at around 2.75. Obviously we have to bridge them, and if I was them I'd bet on myself with a bridge deal anyways

MARLEAU:

We have to swallow the hard truth. Marleau will be a leaf next year, and even if he retires, his AVV counts towards the cap. He also can't be sent through waivers because of the NMC. The only solution would be to do the Orpiks thing, but that's a stretch, don't think the NHL was too impressed with the Caps when they did it. It would also involve giving away a good asset to sweeten the deal..... would be really impressed with Dubas if he made it happen without giving away too much. Expectations are very low though

ZAITSEV:

We have to trade him, and I think his value is higher than we expect. There are still a lot of GMs in the league that value a tenacious smooth skating defensive defenceman. Say what you will about his puck management, but he is actually really good without the puck. He's really tough to play against and he proved it in the Boston series making Pastranak and Marchands life really difficult.

Yes we are already weak on the right side, but he just doesn't suit our style of play or the Dubas vision. Look at all the recent Dubas drafted D making a splash, Liljegren, Sandin, Hollowell, Durzi. They are all skilled puck moving defencemen. That's the direction the organization is going, skill all throughout the lineup, Zaitsev just doesn't fit the mold.

As far as trading him, don't forget how much we moaned and groaned about Polak. Now he's on the second pairing of a team that made the second round, there is still a market for players like Polak and Zaitsev. Not saying were going to get much back for him, mostly because of his contract, but we can maybe get a 5th rounder.

BABCOCK AND CO:

Jeff Veillette wrote a great piece that sums up my thoughts about Babcock, link below. Although I hate how stubborn he is, he's brought structure to the organization and I would still respect if we gave him one last year. Also, now that the media is finally critically questioning him, his hand might be forced to make adjustments, like trusting his younger players and playing Marleau less.

http://faceoffcircle.ca/2019/04/24/this-years-game-7-was-mike-babcocks-tipping-point

OTHER THOUGHTS:

Connor Brown or Hyman's got to go. Brown seems like the obvious piece to be moved. Hyman's got a lot of heart, which we need, and Brown probably gets more interest on the trade market because of his 20 goal season and his numbers in junior

Hyman should be moved down the lineup, Boston and Colorado are proving that stacking a first line is sustainable. Would love to see us do the same, we also have more depth than both of those teams so it wouldn't hurt us as much. Stacking a Marner Matthews line would be really interesting, at least trying it out.

Actually not opposed to Hainsey coming back at 1 mil for 1 year on the third pair, don't know how feasible that is

Both Liljegren and Sandin are not ready for the NHL out of camp. Could see Sandin getting a trial run later in the season though, kind of what we did with Dermott last year

Not going to do a big Kapanen trade here because that's all people would focus on

TIm Heed, Jan Rutta would be RHD I'd want to go after in free agency.

Anyways, heres wonderwall

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