2019-20 Season previews - projected league standings - all teams included

Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Sep. 6, 2019

Published: Sep. 6, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

I was waiting on Gardiner to sign somewhere before making this and now he has. Welcome to the 2019-20 previews for the NHL. I use a Leafs AGM so that it stays in my history so I can look back on it, but all teams will be here with my thoughts. Below is a Leafs opening night roster (there is an Easter egg in there. Props if you find and actually understand it).

Before we begin, lets laugh at my biggest hits and misses from last year: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/850750

Prediction: Preds fall to 99 points
Reality: Preds fall to 100 points

Prediction: WPG wins the presidents trophy with 119 points. Tampa steps back in the regular season to focus on playoff success
Reality: Ahahahahahahahaha! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Prediction: Isles at 71 points and MTL at 76 points
Reality: I made these predictions based on their off seasons. Even if NYI hadn't gone on a PDO bender I still think I ranked them too low. Won't make the same mistake with CBJ this year.

Prediction: Scott Darling rebounds and this is the first year I finally give up on the canes being my hipster pick to make the playoffs.
Reality: ****ing lol.

Prediction: NJD miss the playoffs
Reality: ...by ALOT more than I thought

Okay you can laugh at the rest on your own time. On to this years disaster of a prediction! I will include more hot takes because last years cold takes aged very poorly. Hurrah for over correction!

Atlantic Division:
P-TBL - 113P: Last year I had them chilling in the season and going deep sooo ima just flip that around this time.
X-BOS - 106P: Tighter race with Toronto this year with Toronto's health at the start being the difference. Chara is washed up and the young guys will need to step up to complete the transition. Boston will have some work to do in the coming years, but their transition to the youth is going very well.
X-TOR - 104P: Removed anchor contracts and added at a serious position of need I like what Doobie has done this off season. I think the young guys have a real chance to be difference makers down the lineup and that a healthy and re-united AM-WN line will tear up the league. I will predict right now that Marner doesn't hit 90 points again this year (not that I think there will be a serious drop off) but that the media is too enamoured with blaming Nylander that we don't notice. Injuries prevent Toronto from taking a statistical step up from last season but they will be playing a stronger and more consistent game overall. The regular season means nothing at this point. Playoff success is key.
X-FLA - 100P: If they can ever get good goaltending and offence going in the same season they will make the playoffs. This is the year (I say for the 3rd time). The Bob and Stralman contracts suck but Talon is in win-now mode and I think they will at least win-now to some extent.
MTL - 98P: They aren't quite there yet and being stuck in the best division in the league doesn't help. If Price can hold form anything is possible and they will be challenging for a wildcard spot.
BUF - 81P: They have improved this off season but they are still cellar dwellers in this top heavy division. Their young core is forming and I think they are slowly getting on the right track however THEY NEED A BOTTOM 6 FOR THE LOVE OF GOD!
DET - 74P: Yzerman fires up the tanks. Larkin and friends are not enough to outweigh the many boat anchors on the team.
OTT - 69P: They have a (slightly better) team. Chabot's point totals will regress (shooting % and 2nd assists) but his play will improve. They still have issues but I like some of their pieces.

Metropolitan Division: Basically 'the **** if I know' division
Y-WSH - 103P: Still a very good team. Not much has changed from last year.
X-CAR - 101P: The best Dcore in the league don't @ me. They needs some help up front but they have the pieces to make those moves. I like the direction of this team and if they can get consistent goaltending (which is always their problem) they will make it.
X-NJD - 99P: I love their offseason. They have proved that cap space is key for a rebuilding team and I want to see them rewarded. A full season of Hall + their additions will be more than enough to make the playoffs IF they can get consistently decent goaltending.
X-PIT- 98P: You can never count PIT out but oh boy does JR seem to want to try. Baffling decisions have them deconstructing a contender and Sid isn't getting any younger.
PHI - 96P: I still think that the young pieces this team has will propel them to success but they downgraded their Dcore and signed some BAD deals. Either way I am expecting big improvement after last year.
NYI - 95P: 2013-14 Leafs esq regression is coming but they still have nice pieces in their system. I think they will still have a positive season even if they miss. Very interested in how Varly and Greiss do.
CBJ - 88P: They have lost a lot but they still have a good young core of players to rebuild around. If one of their goalies can step up Torts will win the Jack Adams.
NYR - 82P: I think they have added a lot but I still don't like their depth. They need a ton of young guys to step up in a big way and I think they will ultimately be the big losers that look worse than they are thanks to the Thunderdome thing the Metro has going on. It also doesn't help that they seem dead set on trading Kreider (according to this site anyway).

Central Division:
Y-STL - 102P: STL winning their division is less about STL (read: recency bias) as it is about the rest of their division. Binnington needs to prove he is not just a flash in the pants.
X-NSH - 99P: Downgrade PK to get an overrated Duchene? Okay I guess. That is an expensive centre core for what they are getting though.
X-COL - 97P: Overrated team. That being said I don't think they are bad at all. They have worked to add much needed depth to the roster and have a bright future ahead.
X-DAL - 96P: Ben Bishop put up the best numbers of his career and they nearly missed the playoffs. Pavalski is a nice add but the team sorely needs depth all around the roster.
CHI - 92P: A strong season from the young core. While it hasn't been perfect I have mostly liked what CHI has done this off season. I think there is more work to do but that they will be competitive.
WPG - 90P: It feels like this version of the core has already missed its chance which is too bad really. I don't think they'll stay down for long but some changes are going to be made. I DO NOT like the return for Trouba in the slightest and I think they have downgraded massively on the back end. Their F core will be key and that (as of now) is a big ?.
MIN - 81P: Mediocre team with a good Dcore. A few nice young pieces but an owner who wants to contend each year will hamstring your ability to build around them.

Pacific Division:
Z-SJS - 105P: Healthy players plus an emerging young core to supplement their talented roster should lead the sharks to be 1st in their conference. They are on the clock however and I think with all of their 30+ players (on long term deals) they are just going to stop being good one day and it will be as sudden as the Kings. I think they have at least one more year in them though, probably 2 and maybe even a 3rd if they really push it.
X-LVK - 101P: I think the race between these two teams will be tight and entirely based on how Calgary's goalies do, as well as rebound seasons by patches. A weak division brings them back to a 100 point season. Having Stone all year also helps A TON.
X-CGY - 101P: Acquiring Lucic was a head-scratcher but a strong Dcore plus decent top 6 will bring them to the top of a weak division. Goalies need to be consistent.
X-ARI - 93: Hipster pick. Fully aware they could easily miss with a low 80's point total because WEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
ANH - 87P: No longer being coached by Carlyle helps with many issues. Believe me I know from experience. They got a lot younger and have the best goalie in the league who should have won the vezina for the last two seasons AND FITE ME IF YOU DISAGREE!
VAN - 84P: Marginal improvement with the future being thrown away thanks to awful contracts SOMEBODY RESTRAIN THAT MAN ON JULY 1st!
EDM - 77P: A team with serious issues that hasn't really improved much. What little they have is overshadowed by others in the division.
LAK - 72P: DundundunDADA! DUNDUNDUNDADA!

Playoff Qualification threshold:
East: 98P
West: 93P

Overall standings in an easy to view way (teams with same points ordered by who I think is the better of them):
P-TBL- 113
X-BOS- 106
Z-SJS- 105
X-TOR- 104
Y-WSH- 103
Y-STL- 102
X-LVK- 101
X-CAR- 101
X-CGY- 101
X-FLA- 100
X-NSH- 99
X-NJD- 99
X-PIT- 98
MTL- 98
X-COL- 97
X-DAL- 96
PHI- 96
NYI- 95
X-ARI- 93
CHI- 92
WPG- 90
CBJ- 88
ANH- 87
VAN- 84
NYR- 82
BUF- 81
MIN- 81
EDM- 77
DET- 74
LAK- 72
OTT- 69

Playoff predictions (Left = home ice):
Round 1:
East:
(w)TBL-PIT (PIT is on the decline and JR seems determined to make them worse so Tampa advances)
WSH-FLA(w) (Going for the upset here Bob is a beast and I like Florida's offensive core)
BOS-TOR (w) (Jokes aside Toronto's play has gotten better each go around and with Boston ageing/in transition I don't think it would be unrealistic to see them eek out a w)
(w)CAR-NJD (NJ looks promising but CAR is better in every way)

West:
(w)SJS-ARI (See the NJ-CAR series)
(w)STL-DAL (Neither are perfect but the Stars NEED depth so badly)
(w)LVK-CGY (Honestly I think LVK could have a nice resurgence with Patches)
NSH-COL(w) (Youth and speed trump an overpaid centre core)

Round 2:
East:
TBL-TOR(w) (before you call me a homer, I am betting that Tampa is mentally scarred and chokes)
CAR-FLA(w) (I like CAR but I really like Florida with an actual goalie)

West:
SJS-LVK(w) (Revenge is sweet)
STL-COL(w) (Ima be honest this is more a guess based on my intentional underrating of the blues to avoid recency bias)

For those who are actually reading this; here is a hint for the easter egg: Base 16

Round 3:
East:
(w)TOR-FLA (Okay this one is because I am a homer)

West:
LVK-COL(w) (**** if I know have a guess)

Round 4:
(w)TOR-COL (predictions at this point are meaningless so **** it GO LEAFS GO!)

Draft order (before lottery):
OTT
LAK
DET
EDM
MIN
BUF
NYR
VAN
ANH
CBJ
WPG
CHI
NYI
PHI
MTL
ARI
DAL
PIT
NJD
NSH
CGY
CAR
STL
WSH
SJS
BOS
TBL
FLA
LVK
COL
TOR