According to the very reliable people of Twitter, the NHLPA, in their battle to limit escrows that force players to give up percentages of their salary if the NHL overestimates its revenue when it sets the cap, may have agreed with the NHL to freeze the salary cap at $81.5m for a couple of years. Obviously, the Leafs are badly hurt by this, but so is every team against the cap. Here, I'll underpay everyone on the Lightning and still be barely under the cap to prove that this is not okay for us.
I moved Killorn to the Avalanche because they seem like one of the few teams who aren't so awful that Killorn would never want to go there (unless he's trying to weaponize his no-trade list to prevent any trade at all), but can maybe afford him. They have $15m in cap and do have to re-sign Rantanen, but otherwise I think they can make it work. I don't pay that much attention to the Avalanche, so if a fan wants to come here and tell me why I'm stupid and wrong, go ahead. If a trade doesn't work, waivers are always an option and I feel like a team like the Kings, Ducks, or Senators should have the cap space and want some depth scoring and veteran experience on what will be a young, prospect-filled team, so while Killorn would have them on his no-trade list, with waivers, he has no choice. I chose the Blackhawks for Paquette because I think they could be looking to contend shortly and some bottom-six center depth is always nice. If not them, I'm sure someone would take him as he's well worth that contract. I chose the Red Wings for Coburn mainly because of the Yzerman connection and some short-term cheap defensive options wouldn't hurt them, but he's another player who I'm sure someone else would take too.
This leaves us with a 22 man roster, but without making an NTC disappear, I don't see a way around that. It's doable anyway, just not encouraged, and anyway, this is already so ridiculous that it's really the least of the concerns. Every single player rejects these deals and we're *still* not fitting 23 men under the cap. If Point takes a reasonable AAV rather than one of our crazy low bridge offers, we probably have to lose two if not three of Cernak, Cirelli, Sergachev, and Joseph. I don't think we have the prospects to replace them.
tl;dr: If Twitter turns out to be correct, we're absolutely screwed.
Free Agent Signings
RFA
YEARS
CAP HIT
Point, Brayden
3
$6,000,000
Cirelli, Anthony
3
$3,000,000
Cernak, Erik
3
$2,000,000
Sergachev, Mikhail
3
$3,500,000
Colton, Ross
3
$800,000
Joseph, Mathieu
3
$1,200,000
Masin, Dominik
3
$800,000
Martel, Danick
3
$800,000
Smith, Gemel
3
$700,000
Martin, Spencer
3
$700,000
Verhaeghe, Carter
2
$1,000,000
Spencer, Matthew
2
$800,000
Stephens, Mitchell
2
$880,000
Thomas, Ben
2
$700,000
Volkov, Alexander
2
$900,000
Walcott, Daniel
2
$700,000
Yan, Dennis
2
$700,000
UFA
YEARS
CAP HIT
Schenn, Luke
2
$800,000
Trades
TBL
2021 2nd round pick (COL)
COL
Killorn, Alex
2021 1st round pick (TBL)
2021 3rd round pick (TBL)
TBL
2020 3rd round pick (CHI)
CHI
Paquette, Cédric
2022 3rd round pick (TBL)
TBL
2021 3rd round pick (DET)
DET
Coburn, Braydon
Buyouts
Vincent Lecavalier: $0
DRAFT YEAR
ROUND 1
ROUND 2
ROUND 3
ROUND 4
ROUND 5
ROUND 6
ROUND 7
2020
2021
2022
ROSTER
LONG-TERM OUTLOOK
EMBED
TEXT-EMBED
ROSTER SIZE
SALARY CAP
CAP HIT
OVERAGES
BONUSES
CAP SPACE
22
$81,500,000
$81,409,257
$0
$500,000
$90,743
Left Wing
Center
Right Wing
Johnson,Tyler
$5,000,000
LW, C, RW
NTC
UFA - 4
Point,Brayden
$6,000,000
C, RW
RFA - 2
Kucherov,Nikita
$9,500,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 7
Joseph,Mathieu
$1,200,000
LW, RW
RFA
Stamkos,Steven
$8,500,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 4
Palat,Ondrej
$5,300,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 2
Volkov,Alexander
$900,000
LW, RW
RFA
Cirelli,Anthony
$3,000,000
C
RFA
Gourde,Yanni
$5,166,666
RW, LW, C
NTC
UFA - 5
Verhaeghe,Carter
$1,000,000
C, LW
RFA
Barré-Boulet,Alex
$759,258
C
RFA - 1
Raddysh,Taylor
$833,333
RW
RFA - 1
Left Defense
Right Defense
Goaltender
Hedman,Victor
$7,875,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 5
Sergachev,Mikhail
$3,500,000
LD
RFA
Vasilevskiy,Andrei
$9,500,000
G
UFA - 8
McDonagh,Ryan
$6,750,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 6
Cernak,Erik
$2,000,000
RD
RFA
McElhinney,Curtis
$1,300,000
G
UFA - 1
Masin,Dominik
$800,000
D
RFA
Foote,Cal
$925,000
RD
RFA - 1
Scratches
Injured Reserve (IR)
Long Term IR (LTIR)
Schenn,Luke
$800,000
RD
UFA
Martel,Danick
$800,000
LW
RFA
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While nothing has yet been agreed upon between those parties, sources with knowledge of the talks believe the salary cap could end up being frozen at its current $81.5-million ceiling for two more years — or raised only minimally — as a way to lower players’ escrow payments.
It sounds suspicious, but Sportsnet is usually very reliable. I'm a little worried.
Don't know why you say the Leaf would be in that much cap problem. They have expiring contracts and only Dermot as bigger name RFA to sign next year. If cap is so important, even Killorn might be a guy no one wants at 4.4m. If there is no or minimal cap increases, no team wants a long term iffy cap hit player.
Players whine about escrow but they agreed to it in the revenue sharing in the CBA determine the cap. They don't have no legitimate argument. If the rules change about the cap, (lower), bet the owners get a compliance buyout. That will give all teams some cap relief.
Don't know why you say the Leaf would be in that much cap problem. They have expiring contracts and only Dermot as bigger name RFA to sign next year. If cap is so important, even Killorn might be a guy no one wants at 4.4m. If there is no or minimal cap increases, no team wants a long term iffy cap hit player.
Players whine about escrow but they agreed to it in the revenue sharing in the CBA determine the cap. They don't have no legitimate argument. If the rules change about the cap, (lower), bet the owners get a compliance buyout. That will give all teams some cap relief.
I mentioned the Leafs because that's the team that most of the media is obsessing over with this rumor. I know every defenseman other than Reilly is up for contract next season, but I don't know which defensemen you're going to keep and how hard it will be to re-sign everyone under cap. If this went on for slightly longer than 1-2 years, Andersen and Reilly would become problems. I definitely don't think you have it as bad as Tampa.
With a compliance buyout, we probably buyout Palat, assuming he doesn't rebound. That allows us to keep Killorn and get a 23 man roster, or, better yet (if possible), trade Killorn and actually sign every RFA to some reasonable deals. So I guess this is a worst case scenario rather than a likely thing.
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