Colorado takes a very conservative approach to the offseason here. This example has the league sticking with a flat cap of $81.5M, but the Avalanche would be in good shape if the cap dipped. It also gives them roster flexibility for guys like Kaut, Bowers, Byram, and Timmins to ease into the NHL, and guys like Jost, Nichushkin, and Graves to prove that they should stick around (or not).
Zadorov - it’s time for Colorado to move on. Graves pushed and eventually passed Zadorov this year, and will be less expensive to re-sign (Zadorov’s QO would be $3.2M). There’s still some upside with Zadorov, but he’s likely no more than a 4/5/6 defenseman. Dylan DeMelo got a 3rd rounder back as a rental. Zadorov gets a little bit more because he’s under team control.
Burakovsky - he hit 20 goals and 45 points for the first time, and was on pace for 28 and 63 if he played all 82 games. $5.5M with term is a little risky given he’s only produced at that pace for one season, but it could be a good value deal if Burakovsky can continue to be a 55-65 point guy.
Namestnikov - this is the conservative move. He was very good in a short stint with the Avs post-deadline/pre-shutdown. Sakic has been after him for some time, and Bednar loves versatility. He and Jonas Donskoi would play a very similar role as wingers who can play all over the lineup and in all situations. Neither are true top 6 forwards in terms of offensive production and their ability to drive play, but both proved they can keep up in the top 6. Namestnikov could come back on a 1 year deal where he can play in a bigger role and earn a more lucrative free agent deal the following season. Or Colorado could offer a multi-year contract and the Avalanche would be able to dangle both Donskoi and Namesntikov in the expansion draft to ensure they keep at least one.
Jost - He was very good in the few games post-deadline, and the Avalanche don’t have much to lose by bringing him back. He’s an RFA without arbitration rights, so there’s not much Jost could do to oppose a 1 year deal. The Avalanche run the risk of seeing his trade value decline if he has another mediocre season. If he plays the same way he did post-deadline, he could be a middle-six staple.
Nichushkin - he was a great find off the scrap heap last summer, and became a perfect bottom six winger for the Avalanche. He has great size, speed, some offensive pop, and his defensive metrics were off the charts. He would be a great guy to bring back, but I would be curious to see if another team steps up with an aggressive trade offer. The Avalanche bottom six is crowded.
Byram/Timmins - it’s NHL or WHL for Byram, and there’s not much more he can accomplish in junior. He should be on the NHL roster, even if he’s not in the lineup every night. Timmins is more polished as a pro, but he can develop as a top-pair guy in the AHL. I have a hard time seeing a regular lineup with both Byram and Timmins playing at the same time, at least to start out. The rest of the defense is already very young. I would imagine a rotation of Byram and Timmins in and out of the lineup, with Timmins splitting time between the NHL and AHL, and a veteran extra D (Connauton for example) getting into some games when Byram needs a game off and Timmins is in the AHL.
Kaut/Bowers/O’Connor - similar to the young defensemen, I think these guys will split time between the NHL and AHL, rotating into the lineup. It’s easier to play multiple young guys with 12 forward spots, and it’s less of a risk than playing 2 rookie defensemen. Kaut was great in his short stint and should compete for an opening night spot in the bottom six. Bowers had a great AHL year, but the center position is crowded and it may take an injury or two for him to get into the lineup. O’Connor has a lower ceiling but was a very reliable 4th liner which could be Matt Calvert’s direct replacement in a year.
Overview - Colorado’s apparent need for the last year has been another top six forward, but I don’t think adding a top six forward this summer is necessary for several reasons.
The financial uncertainty of next season makes a big addition risky. The Avs also have Makar, Landeskog, and Grubauer coming up next summer. With Seattle coming into the league, and hopefully a full NHL season in 20-21, they should have more financial flexibility in the summer or 2021.
The expansion draft could also make things tricky, depending on how certain guys play this year. Adding another top six forward could push a valuable role player off if the expansion list.
Alex Newhook is another big reason I think the Avalanche could go without a top six forward this year. He’s headed back to BC this season, but if he continues on his current trajectory he could easily step into the top six in 21-22.
Finally, Colorado was a top 5 team in scoring In 2019-20, even with Rantanen, Landeskog, Kadri, Makar, and Burakovsky missing significant time. While a a guy like Taylor Hall would make the Avalanche an offensive juggernaut, I think there are smarter ways for them to invest their resources and still be a Stanley Cup contender.
One other note - I realize it’s unrealistic for a team to go through an offseason with 0 external additions to their NHL roster, but this is just an example.
- Kaut isn't going to be a healthy scratch.
- Morrison rejected an ELC last summer and will likely leave via College free agency.
- Saigeon won't be tendered a QO. There's no point using up a roster space.
- Zadorov is getting more than a 3rd + 4th. More like 2nd + 3rd.
- $5.5m is about $500k too much for Buravovsky.
- Connauton is likely gone.
- Namestnikov will want more term, which may be a reason why he leaves.
- All your other contracts (i.e. Graves, Nichuskin, etc) are spot on.
McDavid, Connor
$250,000)
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