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Puljujarvi to Carolina

Created by: CD282
Team: 2020-21 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Jun. 7, 2020
Published: Jun. 7, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Legend
Left Handed
Original Team
Waivers Exempt
Right Handed
Position
Trade Clause
Max Perf. Bonus
Expiry Status
Term Remaining
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
Waivers ExemptMcDavid, Connor
$12,500,000 (Performance Bonus$250,000)
C
NMC
UFA - 5
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$3,000,000
2$1,900,000
2$750,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$1,250,000
1$1,250,000
2$3,250,000
2$2,500,000
Trades
1.
EDM
  1. 2020 1st round pick (TOR)
Additional Details:
#18 overall
CAR
  1. Puljujärvi, Jesse [Reserve List]
2.
EDM
  1. 2020 3rd round pick (ANA)
ANA
3.
EDM
  1. 2020 5th round pick (TBL)
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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2021
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2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$81,592,699$341,534$230,000-$92,699
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$3,000,000$3,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
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$12,500,000$12,500,000
C
UFA - 6
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$3,200,000$3,200,000
RW
UFA - 4
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$6,000,000$6,000,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
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$8,500,000$8,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 5
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$894,166$894,166 (Performance Bonus$230,000$230K)
RW
RFA - 1
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$1,250,000$1,250,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
$2,500,000$2,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
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$875,000$875,000
LW
UFA - 1
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$915,000$915,000
C
UFA - 1
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$2,150,000$2,150,000
RW
UFA - 1
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$5,750,000$5,750,000
RW, LW
UFA - 3
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$1,200,000$1,200,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
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$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$4,167,000$4,167,000
LD
UFA - 3
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$4,166,666$4,166,666
RD
UFA - 1
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$4,500,000$4,500,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,600,000$5,600,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,900,000$1,900,000
RD
UFA - 2
$3,250,000$3,250,000
G
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$850,000$850,000
LD/RD
UFA - 2
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$1,250,000$1,250,000
RD
UFA
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$750,000$750,000
LD/RD
UFA - 2

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Top Comments

Jun. 7, 2020 at 12:28 p.m.
#1
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Joined: Mar. 2017
Posts: 23,771
Likes: 7,649
In another forum a few couple years ago we looked into the way Puljujarvi had been bounced around the lineup and up and down between the AHL and NHL, how he was forced to "earn" his playing time, etc. I took a look at several young European wingers who entered the league just prior to Puljujarvi and how much ice they got with skill centers, and the difference is stark - even though Jesse was putting up similar numbers.

Here are each winger's 5v5 P/60 with their top 2 centers:

DRAFT +1
Rantanen w/ MacKinnon: 0.00 (0:43)
Rantanen w/ Duchene: 0.00 (29:09)
Pastrnak w/ Bergeron: 1.31 (45:49)
Pastrnak w/ Krejci: 2.55 (141:15)
Nylander: NO NHL TOI
Puljujarvi w/ McDavid: 2.86 (84:01)
Puljujarvi w/ Draisaitl: 1.67 (107:28)

Rantanen and Nylander did nothing, Toronto smartly leaving Nylander in the AHL for the entire year. Puljujarvi’s numbers were better than Pastrnak’s.

DRAFT +2
Rantanen w/ MacKinnon: 1.66 (684:55)
Rantanen w/ Duchene: 0.86 (350:34)
Pastrnak w/ Bergeron: 1.96 (61:19)
Pastrnak w/ Krejci: 2.04 (499:06)
Nylander w/ Kadri: 0.00 (4:57)
Nylander w/ Bozak: 0.00 (1.45)
Puljujarvi w/ McDavid: 1.87 (256:57)
Puljujarvi w/ Draisaitl: 2.37 (101:22)

Note the differences? Rantanen gets glued to the top-6 despite not achieving much, Pastrnak is playing with skill but also not getting top defensive assignments with Bergeron, while Nylander is playing on the 3rd line after having played well for the first half of the season in the AHL. Meanwhile Puljujarvi is not getting consistent linemates anywhere, despite scoring a an equal or better rate than his peers. Nice development plan.

DRAFT +3
Rantanen w/ MacKinnon: 2.28 (946:52)
Rantanen w/ Duchene: 0.00 (12:48)
Pastrnak w/ Bergeron: 2.22 (541:19)
Pastrnak w/ Krejci: 1.54 (429:40)
Nylander w/ Kadri: 2.17 (360:06)
Nylander w/ Matthews: 1.82 (624:42)
Puljujarvi w/ McDavid: 1.80 (66:46)
Puljujarvi w/ Draisaitl: 0.00 (74:25)

Here we see where the other team's development plans worked out, as all 3 are getting consistent top-6 ice time and all 3 are delivering consistent results.
Unfortunately we see Puljujarvi getting jacked around still. Remember that JP was playing with a hip issue all year, until the team finally pulled the plug on his season and ordered surgery.

No question that Puljujarvi has ability, he put up similar or better numbers to these 3 very good players when healthy despite the screw up that was his development plan in Edmonton. I think there are multiple GM's that see a whole lot of untapped potential in this young man, they just aren't sure if they can undo the damage that's already been done. Jesse playing well in Finland has helped, but it's not the NHL and there will still be some reserves.
Jun. 7, 2020 at 12:29 p.m.
#2
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Joined: Mar. 2017
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Here's an article that will give you some idea what the odds are of your picks turning into good players:

https://www.coppernblue.com/platform/amp/2011/4/4/2082829/nhl-draft-pick-value-first-round

Even if this is a really deep draft (the jury is still out on that), the probability of the #18 pick becoming a top player is just under 30%.

So the question becomes: what are Puljujarvi's chances of becoming a top player? I'll look at his 19- and 21-year-old seasons to get some idea what his future could look like. I'm not using his 18-year-old season because there are so few comparables (Hughes and Kakko fit but that story isn't written yet), and I'm ignoring his 20-year-old season because he played with the nagging hip issue all year which finally ended his season prematurely.

As a 19-year-old Puljujarvi posted 0.31 P/GP in the NHL. Here are all the 19-year-old's who have posted +/- 0.05 P/GP from 00-01 to 17-18:

Beauvillier
Boedker
PM Bouchard
Josefson
Latendresse
Lindholm
Couterier
Lucic
O'Reilly
Jost
J Staal
Zacha
Turris
Johansen
Puljujarvi
Seguin
Tlusty
Burmistrov
Smith-Pelly
Weiss
McCann

Of those 20 player (not including Puljujarvi), 10 of them became "top" players under the criteria listed in the link, or 50%. The jury is still out on 4 of them (Beauvillier, Jost, Zacha and McCann), so if you exclude them you're left with 10 of 16, or 62.5%.

Now we turn to Jesse's 21-year-old season. He posted 53 points in 56 Liiga games and led the league in shots / corsi, etc. Using an NHLe conversion factor of 0.45, his equivalent P/GP in the NHL would have been 0.43. Using the same criteria as before (+/- 0.05 P/GP), we can see that 59 players matched at 21 years old. I'm not going to list them out, but you can check out the list here:

https://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2001&year_max=2018&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=21&age_max=21&pos=F&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=points_per_game&c1comp=gt&c1val=0.38&c2stat=points_per_game&c2comp=lt&c2val=0.48&c3stat=games_played&c3comp=gt&c3val=40&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game

How many of them became "top" NHLers? Thirty, with the story not yet written with 5 of them: Dvorak, Niederreiter, McCann, Milano and Lehkonen. Dividing 30 into 54 gets us 55.5%.

I don't think it's unreasonable to conclude that Jesse Puljujarvi has >50% chance of becoming a top-6 forward in the NHL, which is a similar probability to that of a #4 - 7 pick in an average draft. I'm not going to say he's worth a top-10 pick in the upcoming draft because I don't think his ceiling is as high as those guys. There's a vast difference between being top-6 (Milan Lucic) and being top-6 (Nicklas Backstrom or Mitch Marner).

If Holland is indeed asking for a mid- to late-1st as has been speculated, I can certainly understand why. Puljujarvi has a higher floor than a typical pick in this range (he's far more likely to become a top-6 forward) and about as high a ceiling.
OldNYIfan and gretzkyghosts liked this.
Jun. 7, 2020 at 12:29 p.m.
#3
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Carolina aren't giving up the 18th overall pick in the deepest draft since 03 for someone who's been in Europe this year, and didn't exactly perform well when he was in North America. No way.
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Jun. 7, 2020 at 12:29 p.m.
#4
Sabres are elite
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no one is going to trade a 1st for him. You could probably get Brock McGinn
Jun. 7, 2020 at 12:30 p.m.
#5
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Likes: 7,649
I stated that Puljujarvi isn't worth a top-10 pick in the 2020 draft and I believe that. I would rather have Rossi, Raymond or Perfetti in the Oilers system and it's not close. But in doing this research I've come to the realization that I - and the vast majority or posters here - probably overvalue picks.

For instance, when my research above showed that Puljujarvi had a similar probability of becoming a top-6 player as a typical #4-7 pick, misguided Leafs fans freaked out. So here is a look at all the forwards that have been drafted in the 4-7 range in the 15 years looking back from the seminal 2015 draft, along with their GP to date and their career P/GP.

Marner: 300, 0.97
Zacha: 266, 0.41
Bennett: 364, 0.35
Dal Colle: 85, 0.20
Virtanen: 269, 0.34
Lindholm: 525, 0.61
Monahan: 541, 0.76
Strome: 491, 0.52
Zibanejad: 548, 0.70
Scheifele: 519, 0.86
Johansen: 660, 0.67
Niederreiter: 601, 0.48
Connolly: 496, 0.38
Skinner: 720, 0.65
Kane: 713, 0.64
Schenn: 658, 0.65
Kadri: 612, 0.64
Folatov: 53, 0.26
Wilson: 632, 0.45
Gagner: 844, 0.54
Voracek: 915, 0.76
Backstrom: 956, 0.97
Kessel: 1066, 0.81
Brassard: 852, 0.57
Okposo: 800, 0.63
Pouliot: 625, 0.42
Brule: 299, 0.32
Skille: 368, 0.23
Ladd: 950, 0.57
Wheeler: 931, 0.82
Olesz: 365, 0.37
Zherdev: 421, 0.62
Vanek: 1029, 0.77
Michalek: 747, 0.60
Upshall: 759, 0.38
Lupul: 701, 0.60
Weiss: 732, 0.58
Chitsov: 196, 0.31
Koivu: 1028, 0.69

That's 39 forwards take with picks 4-7 in 15 years. Let's rearrange them by performance thus:

Superstar (1.00+ P/GP): 0/39 = 0%
Elite (0.75 - 0.99): 8/39 = 20.5%
Top-6 (0.50 - 0.74): 17/39 = 43.6%
Bottom-6 (< 0.50): 14/39 = 35.9%

High picks are great, but (cap aside) if you have a chance to trade your (say) #7 pick for an established player in his early 20's who scores 0.75 P/GP, you'd be best to make that deal.
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