I stated that Puljujarvi isn't worth a top-10 pick in the 2020 draft and I believe that. I would rather have Rossi, Raymond or Perfetti in the Oilers system and it's not close. But in doing this research I've come to the realization that I - and the vast majority or posters here - probably overvalue picks.
For instance, when my research above showed that Puljujarvi had a similar probability of becoming a top-6 player as a typical #4-7 pick, misguided Leafs fans freaked out. So here is a look at all the forwards that have been drafted in the 4-7 range in the 15 years looking back from the seminal 2015 draft, along with their GP to date and their career P/GP.
Marner: 300, 0.97
Zacha: 266, 0.41
Bennett: 364, 0.35
Dal Colle: 85, 0.20
Virtanen: 269, 0.34
Lindholm: 525, 0.61
Monahan: 541, 0.76
Strome: 491, 0.52
Zibanejad: 548, 0.70
Scheifele: 519, 0.86
Johansen: 660, 0.67
Niederreiter: 601, 0.48
Connolly: 496, 0.38
Skinner: 720, 0.65
Kane: 713, 0.64
Schenn: 658, 0.65
Kadri: 612, 0.64
Folatov: 53, 0.26
Wilson: 632, 0.45
Gagner: 844, 0.54
Voracek: 915, 0.76
Backstrom: 956, 0.97
Kessel: 1066, 0.81
Brassard: 852, 0.57
Okposo: 800, 0.63
Pouliot: 625, 0.42
Brule: 299, 0.32
Skille: 368, 0.23
Ladd: 950, 0.57
Wheeler: 931, 0.82
Olesz: 365, 0.37
Zherdev: 421, 0.62
Vanek: 1029, 0.77
Michalek: 747, 0.60
Upshall: 759, 0.38
Lupul: 701, 0.60
Weiss: 732, 0.58
Chitsov: 196, 0.31
Koivu: 1028, 0.69
That's 39 forwards take with picks 4-7 in 15 years. Let's rearrange them by performance thus:
Superstar (1.00+ P/GP): 0/39 = 0%
Elite (0.75 - 0.99): 8/39 = 20.5%
Top-6 (0.50 - 0.74): 17/39 = 43.6%
Bottom-6 (< 0.50): 14/39 = 35.9%
High picks are great, but (cap aside) if you have a chance to trade your (say) #7 pick for an established player in his early 20's who scores 0.75 P/GP, you'd be best to make that deal.