The Penguins Arbitration Situation

Created by: exo2769

Team: 2020-21 Pittsburgh Penguins

Initial Creation Date: Jun. 18, 2020

Published: Jun. 18, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Legend

Left Handed

Original Team

Waivers Exempt

Right Handed

Position

Trade Clause

Max Perf. Bonus

Expiry Status

Term Remaining

McDavid, Connor

$12,500,000 ( Performance Bonus

$250,000)

NMC

UFA - 5

Description

There was a lively discussion the other day (and almost every day it seems) about Matt Murray staying vs being traded. I'm curious what people think will happen with 8 different arbitration eligible players. YES, EIGHT OF THEM THIS YEAR. Also, I'm going to make 1 important assumption...that the player asks for arbitration each time. Why? 2 reasons. 1.) it'll likely be a flat cap and players are probably looking for a raise or at the very least equal money. 2.) It's just freakin easier to make it uniform. So let's go through it...

Evan Rodriguez - Coming off a a 1 year $2M deal. Didn't exactly excel with PIT in his albeit short stint. This reminds me of Joel Armia - Previous deal was darn close. The previous 2 years in point totals are darn close...2 point delta I think in ERods favor. His next deal is likely around $2.5M. I'll insert him as a scratch because PIT would likely decline.

Jared McCann - Previous deal was $1.25M. I think he'll be like Alex Iafallo. Similar points totals. McCann might actually get slightly more due to his previous experience and contract, but roughly the same. PIT would likely accept this IMO.

Anthony and Sam...minimal at best. We'll say ELC just for cap purposes AND put them on LTIR to not affect the cap.

Dominik Simon - I see a comp being Artturi Lehkonen...thus 1 year $2.4M

Jusso Riikola - Christian Djoos comes to mind...a guy that's really just getting started. I'm going to say slightly less. $1M.

NOW it gets interesting.

Matt Murray - I'm going off FOUR comps here
Jordan Binnington - 2019 - 1 year of service...30 starts in net....927 sv%...1 Stanley Cup. Result = 2 years $4.4M
Robin Lehner - 2017 - 4 years of service ~.920 SV% 1 year as a starter - results 1 year $4M
Jonathan Bernier - 2015 - 5 years of service ~.915 SV% 2 years as a starter - results 2 years $4.5M...5 years ago
Braden Holtby - 2015 - 3 years of service ~.920 SV% Results 4 years $6.1M...5 years ago.

Matt Murray - 2020 - 3.5 years a starter ~.915 SV% TWO Stanley Cups.

Results...I think it'll be 1 year $6.5M If you're Matt Murray coming off a VERY team friendly deal. When do you get paid?!?! It's supposed to be now...isn't it???

Tristan Jarry - half a year a starter...tandem really... .921 SV% Comps I see are Hellebuyck's FIRST arbitration where he had a .907 and got $2.25 and binnington, but he won the cup...so Jarry will get ~$3M.

What are you thoughts AND what do you think happens to the goalie situation?

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Rodrigues, Evan	1	$2,500,000
McCann, Jared	1	$2,500,000
Lafferty, Sam	1	$800,000
Angello, Anthony	1	$750,000
Simon, Dominik	1	$2,400,000
Riikola, Juuso	1	$1,000,000
Murray, Matt	1	$6,500,000
Jarry, Tristan	1	$3,000,000

Buried

Casey DeSmith: $175,000 ($1,250,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$81,500,000	$80,525,175	$0	$850,000	$974,825

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Guentzel, Jake $4,500,000$4,500,000 LW, RW UFA - 4	Crosby, Sidney $8,700,000$8,700,000 C NMC UFA - 5	Simon, Dominik $2,400,000$2,400,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
McCann, Jared $2,500,000$2,500,000 C, LW UFA - 2	Malkin, Evgeni $9,500,000$9,500,000 C NMC UFA - 2	Rust, Bryan $3,500,000$3,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
Zucker, Jason $5,500,000$5,500,000 LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 3	Bjugstad, Nick $2,050,000$2,050,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Hörnqvist, Patric $5,300,000$5,300,000 RW NTC UFA - 3
Aston-Reese, Zach $1,000,000$1,000,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Blueger, Teddy $750,000$750,000 C, LW UFA - 1	Tanev, Brandon $3,500,000$3,500,000 LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 5

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Dumoulin, Brian $4,100,000$4,100,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 3	Letang, Kris $7,250,000$7,250,000 RD M-NTC, NMC UFA - 2
Pettersson, Marcus $4,025,175$4,025,175 LD UFA - 5	Marino, John $925,000$925,000 ($850,000$850K) RD UFA - 1
Johnson, Jack $1,150,000$1,150,000 LD UFA - 1	Ruhwedel, Chad $700,000$700,000 RD UFA - 1	Murray, Matt $6,500,000$6,500,000 G UFA - 4
		Jarry, Tristan $3,000,000$3,000,000 G UFA - 3

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Rodrigues, Evan $2,500,000$2,500,000 LW, C UFA - 1		Lafferty, Sam $800,000$800,000 RW, C, LW UFA - 2
Riikola, Juuso $1,000,000$1,000,000 LD UFA - 2		Angello, Anthony $750,000$750,000 C, RW UFA - 2

Top Comments

Jun. 18, 2020 at 9:52 a.m.

Yojimbo

Joined: Apr. 2018

Posts: 5,351

Likes: 1,535

Murray is out. Cap just doesn't fit.
I can see Rodrigues not getting qualified, or his rights traded for tokens.
I also feel that both the Penguin and Riikola are fine with parting ways. This will be Riikola's 3rd year in the NHL and he will want to sign somewhere where he will actually play. The coaches prefer to play other ahead of him so they won't miss him either.

Simon is not worth $2.4M. he gets spoon fed ice time with Crosby and still barely does anything with it. I know his possession numbers blah blah blah... but if he doesn't do anything with those numbers then they are meaningless.

If you can sign McCann to $2.5M then you get him to add as many years to that as you can.

exo2769 liked this.

Jun. 18, 2020 at 10:09 a.m.

exo2769

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 15,639

Likes: 9,748

Quoting: Yojimbo

Murray is out. Cap just doesn't fit.

Do you think the cap hit is about right? Having the combination of service time...2 cups...and decent stats is a combination that not one of those comps above have.

Jun. 18, 2020 at 11:45 a.m.

Yojimbo

Joined: Apr. 2018

Posts: 5,351

Likes: 1,535

Quoting: exo2769

Do you think the cap hit is about right? Having the combination of service time...2 cups...and decent stats is a combination that not one of those comps above have.

I think that is the high end of what someone will offer, but the low/mid area of what Murray wants. When I do my mental "what is he worth in trade" thoughts I consider the the RFA compensation for the $4.2M-$6.3M range which is a 1st+3rd. I sometimes add a notation to posts that some GM could go crazy making it the 1st+2nd+3rd level which is the $6.4M-$8.5M range. But like I said, in my mind I tend to stay in the 1st+3rd range, under $6.3M.

Then again, Bobrovsky, who had backed his teams to ABSOLUTELY NOTHING during a decade of playing, got $10M cap hit so...

Jun. 18, 2020 at 11:59 a.m.

exo2769

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 15,639

Likes: 9,748

Quoting: Yojimbo

Be careful with the pick compensation translating to a cap hit. That's not how an arbitrator works. They're not doing hypothetical armchair GM trades. They're looking at stats/accomplishments/years experience/etc... So take the arbitration value and then look at trades. So take your assumption of 1 year $6.3M Murray that'll be a UFA...what trade value does he have??? IF PIT plays it right and waits until the TDL they might be able to get something like what Lehner got...as long as they could get a 3rd party team to take half of Murray's cap. 2nd round pick at his absolute highest...if PIT waits until the TDL...AND finds someone to take half his cap hit. If they're looking to unload him in this offseason when NO ONE has the cap space...expect less...unless PIT can eat half that salary.

Another way of looking at it. Why would another team send assets to PIT for 1 years worth of a $6.3M Matt Murray....when they know PIT can't agree to it??? The consequences of a non-agreement is that Matt Murray becomes a UFA and the acquiring team would A.) likely get him for less than $6.3M B.) Longer Term C.) Not lose any assets.

I can't think of another situation like this in hockey history. A guy with CLEAR experience and clout...coming off a bad year...but a team friendly contract....arbitration eligible...into a year that'll certainly be a flat cap due to COVID, but deserves a raise. It's crazyness. I have no clue what JR is going to do.

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