Palat or Rakell

Team: 2020-21 Colorado Avalanche

Initial Creation Date: Aug. 24, 2020

Published: Aug. 24, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Colorado’s primary position of need going into the offseason is probably at forward. They have very good depth, but they could really use one more addition to their top six. I don’t necessarily think they need a Hall or Gaudreau, though those players would be welcomed at the right price. They have 5 legit top six forwards already (MacKinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, Kadri, Burakovsky) so you’re really talking about adding forward #5 or #6 to that group.

There are a few specific qualities - in my opinion - that would make an ideal fit:
-Offensive consistency - Aside from MacKinnon, the rest of the top six has been known to be a little streaky offensively. There’s plenty of skill to carry the load when one player is in a slump, but a 50ish point player who can consistently move the play in the right direction could help balance that streakiness.
-High IQ and competent two-way play - Of all the great qualities Colorado’s forward group possesses, their collective hockey IQ is middling. It’s bot necessarily a major weakness, but it’s an area for improvement. The DNVR crew has talked about this on their podcast a few times. In addition, they have a couple of wingers in Burakovsky and Rantanen who have had their share of defensive zone struggles. Again, not a huge weakness for the top six as a whole, but an area for improvement.
-Versatility - We have seen with recent additions that Sakic and Bednar both prefer players who can play multiple roles and/or positions. For example - Kadri’s ability to play in all situations, Burakovsky, Donskoi, and Nichushkin can play on either wing. Namestnikov can play all three forward positions, and can play in all situations.
-Contract term of 2-3 years - Since the Boedker trade with Arizona in 2016, we haven’t seen any major rental trades from Colorado. I wouldn’t expect him to be after a player that would cost significant assets that they may only have for one season. At the same time, Colorado has some significant contracts coming up in the next few season. Makar, Landeskog and Grubauer expire in 2021, Kadri expires in 2022, and MacKinnon expires in 2023. I would expect the Avs to be hesitant to add any new players signed beyond 2023, especially with some of the financial uncertainty of the next several seasons. Of course, AAV is also an important consideration. They have a good amount of cap space for a contending team, but not enough to be willingly overpaying on AAV.

With all those factors in mind, I think Palat and Rakell are two potentially available players that would make a ton of sense as trade targets. Both are signed through 2022 at reasonable AAVs. Palat can play either wing, and Rakell can play all forward positions. Palat has hovered between .53 and .69 points per game for the last 5 seasons. Rakell has been slightly better, between .60 and .72 in the same time frame, with one outlying year at .90 in 2017-18. They have both also played the left half-wall on the power play with success, which is an oddly specific area where the Avs’s 2nd power play has struggled to find the right fit. I don’t think either would be used in a PK role - given Bednar typically uses bottom six player like Compher, Calvert, Nieto, Bellemare, etc. on the PK - but both are solid in their own end.

Tampa is expected to move at least one of their top nine forwards outside of Point, Kucherov, and Stamkos to create cap space. Palat fits within that group and would provide some nice cap relief. The Ducks aren’t in a pinch to move Rakell like Tampa is, but as they rebuild they would be able to get a better return for him now with 2 years left on his deal that they would a year later. Tampa is probably looking for inexpensive NHL players who can help them now, or potentially draft picks to replenish the picks they traded away this past deadline. Anaheim is after young talent like any rebuilder. They have a good group of forward prospects, and would probably prefer a young defenseman.

I don’t think Colorado would be open to trading Byram or Newhook in this situation. Conor Timmins might be on the table, and would fit nicely with either Tampa or Anaheim as a young/inexpensive right-shot defenseman who can play in the nhl right now. Colorado is very high on him, so I don’t know if they would be willing to part with much more in this situation. Plus you’re talking about a forward who is likely only with the Avs for two years in exchange for a potential 10-12 year top-4 defenseman. The Avs also have a couple of younger NHL defenseman who could be available as Byram and Timmins should be in the NHL next year - Nikita Zadorov and Ryan Graves. Both are RFAs and I expect only one is resigned by the Avs. Would Zadorov or Graves + a young forward with upside like Jost, Kaut, or Bowers get a deal done for either of these players? There is also a possibility that Ian Cole could be moved to create roster space for a young D. He doesn’t have as mu Co long term value, but he is a solid top 6 NHL D who knows how to win. With 1 year left on his deal, Colorado could probably retain salary to make him an affordable add. Maybe Tampa would be interested in two proven NHL players in Cole (50%) and Jost, plus a draft pick.

I went with Timmins for Palat in the example below - Palat has a higher AAV to demonstrate how he fits with the cap, and I think Timmins would hurt Colorado the most to give up.

Let me know your thoughts!

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