Roster Evaluation and Possible Trades

Team: 2021-22 Washington Capitals

Initial Creation Date: May 24, 2021

Published: May 25, 2021

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Roster Evaluations:

UFAs heading into the Summer (Not including players who spend a majority of their season in the AHL/Taxi Squad):

Alex Ovechkin: 45GP 24G-18A-42P. LW. Really solid numbers considering he missed the most games in a season in his career (COVID protocol, injury). Would have likely hit 30 goals if not for that time off. Huge question about his contract in relation to direction of the team. The team would absolutely want him back and would/should give the man anything he wants. But with the team's decline, how does he feel? Luckily and thankfully, he says he wants to re-sign and is optimistic he’ll be back, so that’s good news to assuage most worries. But he says he also envisions the same group of guys, which is unlikely to happen. Do certain trades upset him? Also turns 36 this September. Previous contract 13 years, $124mil, $9,538,462 cap hit

Michael Raffl: 44GP 4G-7A-11P. LW/RW Acquired from Philadelphia at deadline for a 5th round pick, 25% salary retained. He looked like he fit in fairly well but nothing special (1G-2A-3P in 10GP in DC). Don't see him being anything more than a rental and doubtful he re-signs. Turns 33 this December. Previous contract 2yrs, $3.2mil, $1.6mil cap hit

Zdeno Chara: 55GP 2G-8A-10P. LD. Chara still has game to play if he chooses. Was solid with Jensen on the 3rd pairing, perhaps the most consistent pairing. Played on the PK too. However, at times he does look old and slow on a team that's old and slow. Probably a one and done season in DC, as we need to play younger defensemen specifically LD like Fehervary and Alexeyev. Turns 45 next March. Prev contract 1yr $795,000


RFAs heading into the Summer (Not including players who spent a majority of their season in the AHL/Taxi Squad):

Ilya Samsonov: 19GP 13-4-1 record, 2.69 GAA, .902 SV%. G. Who was supposed to be the goalie of the future has cast doubt on himself following poor decisions and a decline in play when he was supposed to have a larger role this season. Started in the summer when he got in an ATV accident during the pandemic and didn't join the team in the bubble, then this season found himself in COVID protocols twice, contracting COVID once. Has yet to start 3 regular season games in a row. He has a high ceiling (selected in 1st round, 22nd pick in 2015) but it depends on him and he put himself under higher scrutiny, so it's very unlikely his rights get traded. I would prefer a bridge contract for Samsonov. He hurt his value so the team could probably sign him for cheaper for another year or two than he otherwise would have gotten. Turns 25 next February. Prev contract 3yrs, $4.425mil, $925k cap hit. (ELC)


FORWARDS:

Nicklas Backstrom: 55GP 15G-38A-53P. C. Team leader in points, he put up another productive season and stepped up when Ovechkin was out. Played his 1,000th game this year. However, had a disappointing postseason with just 1A, but was playing with a groin injury. Nothing much to say except that he was Backstrom, and that's always a good thing. Turns 34 in November. Under contract for another 4 yrs until end of 2024-25 with a $9.2mil cap hit, NMC. Contract keeps him safe, as well as simply being the 2nd greatest Cap of all time

Evgeny Kuznetsov: 41GP 9G-20A-29P. C. Where do I even begin? Broke COVID protocols twice, caught COVID twice. Hasn't avoided bad press since 2018-19 season after using cocaine. What makes Kuznetsov so frustrating is all that off-ice crap, along with not meeting expectations on the ice. But still, the numbers are respectable! His weaknesses (defensive play, faceoffs, off-ice conduct) overshadow the fact that he had a stretch this season where he put up 16 points in a 20 game stretch. He had such a spectacular 2017-18 season and postseason where he put up 27G (career high)-56A-83P (career high) in 79GP and then 32P in the Cup win where he was considered for Conn Smythe, but the seasons afterwards have been disappointing in comparison. From 2015-16 up to this season, he still averages 63 points a season as a 1C/2C (probably higher if last season was finished) but it's not what it could be, along with off-ice matters being a detriment. He is very doubtful to return this summer. He says he wants to stay and likes everything, but management has the final say and will definitely explore trades. Questions become where does he go, what is he worth, what does a trade look like? Turns 30 next May. Under contract for another 4 years, $7.8mil cap hit, M-NTC.

TJ Oshie: 53GP 22G-21A-43P. RW. Really solid season from Oshie, especially in the second half of the season. The only other 20 goal scorer on the team & hit 20 goals for the 3rd season in a row. At the beginning of the season, he was popular pick to expose to Seattle. His play makes it tough to let him go as he's still valuable & is such a great individual & team guy. He seriously loves this team, this area, and that’s someone you want to keep. On the other hand, his contract/age is reason to and it’s still a business. Turns 35 in December. Under contract for another 4yrs with a $5.75mil cap hit, M-NTC. Future for him is very uncertain. I'd prefer to keep him, then maybe trade him and retain salary once he declines later.

Anthony Mantha: 56GP 15G-14A-29P. LW/RW. Acquired from big trade with Detroit for Jakub Vrana, Richard Panik, 2021 1st Round Pick, 2022 2nd Round Pick. In DC, had 4G-4A-8P in 14GP. He looks good and seems to be a big pickup, as he's going to be a staple in our top 6, PP units. Looking forward to his first full season in DC to see how he performs. Turns 27 in September. Considering what we gave up for him, he is completely safe. Under contract for another 3yrs, $5.7mil cap hit

Tom Wilson: 47GP 13G-20A-33P. RW. Numbers were lowest since 2017-18 but would have passed them with more GP/full season but solid nonetheless. Proves he is one of the best, if not the best, power forward in the NHL. Team leader, top 6 forward, can even be on the PK. HOWEVER he needs to be smarter. He will never receive the benefit of the doubt, whether it's sometimes deserved or not on any individual play. When he doesn't cross the line, he is great. When he loses control or crosses the line, he becomes a distraction & detrimental. It's important that he recognizes how valuable he is to the team, how others perceive him, and how necessary it is that he plays the right way. Wilson is most likely safe. Under contract for another 3yrs, $5,166,666 cap hit with M-NTC.

Lars Eller: 44GP 8G-15A-23P. C. A good season for Eller, dealt with injuries that kept him sidelined. But he really is a terrific 3C and fit the role perfectly in his time in DC thus far. Seemed to have a good connection with Sheary in particular this season, but yeah, just a real good 3C in pretty much all aspects of the game. I would say he is relatively safe, because as valuable as he is, I feel like he could become expendable to receive some goods & give playing time to Connor McMichael who I believe is NHL ready and should definitely get playing time next season. Perhaps after a Kuznetsov trade, however, Eller tries to fill the role of 2C if the team can't acquire one via trade or free agency. Turns 33 next May. Under contract for another 2 years with a $3.5mil cap hit.

Carl Hagelin: 56GP 6G-10A-16P. LW. Surprised by his offensive numbers in his time on the team, it seems like he does not go on the scoresheet often. But, offense is not what Hagelin is used for. He is like 100% a defensive forward, one of the best PK men on the team. That 4th line with Dowd and Hathaway was very good this season, I won't lie. He is relatively safe. Depends on how much value you put on him for what he does with how much money he makes, and if you want to shed old guys he's probably a guy who fits that mold. Turns 33 in August. Under contract for another 2yrs, $2.75mil cap hit.

Garnet Hathaway: 56GP 6G-12A-18P. LW/RW. Hathaway was consistently good this season. Plays physical, great on the forecheck, solid defense, generates energy. That 4th line with Hagelin and Dowd was probably the best in the playoffs for us, and he has such an evident relationship with Dowd that benefits their play. I think Hathaway is safe, don't know if Seattle takes him. Turns 30 in November. Under contract for another 3yrs, $1.5mil cap hit.

Nic Dowd: 56GP 11G (career high)-4A-15P. C. Terrific goal-scoring season for Dowd, perhaps overshadows the lack of assists and points overall. That being said, he was a great 4C all season. Laviolette trusted him on defensive faceoffs, he was part of that really good 4th line that generated offense and energy from that nice forecheck and cycle, as well as playing against some top opponent lines. Dowd is safe besides exposure to Seattle. Under contract for 1yr, $750k cap hit

Conor Sheary: 53GP 14G-8A-22P. LW/RW. For a guy who signed for the league minimum, he surpassed expectations and worked his way into an extension during the season. He played everywhere in the lineup and seemed to do well no matter what that was. In particular, he worked well as the 3LW with Eller. In the playoffs, he sorta looked like he was fumbling around a bit but when he had a solid Game 5 it was too little too late. That extension also I think makes his future uncertain. Don't really see him being protected, so I think he could end up being a solid candidate for the Seattle steal. Turns 29 in June. Under contract for another 2yrs with a $1.5mil cap hit.

Daniel Sprong. 42GP 13G-7A (career high)-20P (career high). RW. Acquired in a trade from Anaheim last year for Christian Djoos, this was the first year he spent with the team. And he is exactly the guy this team needs to keep for the future. Sprong had limited ice time and games played but was effective. He was like Sheary to a lesser extent, seeing top line minutes but most often played on the 3rd line or for some dumb reason was healthy scratched. Great speed and shot, I cannot emphasize how much Washington needs to keep Sprong and play him more next season. Not saying he becomes a Rocket Richard candidate, but I think he can do well anywhere in the top 9, particularly in that 2nd/3rd line to easily hit 20 goals if he's given more games and ice time. I would hope he's safe, but in reality it's uncertain because he would be enticing for Seattle, while also being the type of guy BMac likes to trade away for being young so he could also be a trade chip. Since the team needs to get younger and faster, perhaps BMac recognizes that Sprong is both young and fast. Turns 25 next March. Under contract for 1yr, $725k before becoming an RFA.

DEFENSEMAN:

John Carlson: 52GP 10G-34A-44P. RD. Carlson is... interesting. Great at offense. Not as great at defense. I swear if this guy applied his brain more and had a higher hockey IQ he would be the top defenseman in the league. But he's kinda dumb which affects his defensive play. There's a reason he lost the Norris race last year. His offense was fueling that hype in the first half, but then it cooled and his less-than-stellar defensive play shifted attention away from him and towards the deserved winner, Roman Josi, despite being the top scoring defenseman by 10 points. So it's very weird. He was tied for 5th with Dougie Hamilton this season in goals among defenseman, 7th in assists, and 5th in points this season. But again, his noticeable errors and blunders over his career are kind of infuriating for being the team's apparent top defenseman. With all that being said, I think Carlson is relatively safe. I wouldn't mind seeing him traded while his apparent value is still very high (unlike Kuznetsov) and perhaps he is a dark horse trade candidate for a team that might consider moving core pieces in an effort to get younger, faster. But his contract probably prevents anything from getting done, and there would be no apparent immediate replacement; also, if goal is to stay competitive, probably best to keep him. Turns 32 next January. Under contract for another 5yrs, $8mil cap hit with M-NTC

Dmitri Orlov: 51GP 8G-14A-22P. LD/RD. Began the season shaky after missing time in COVID protocol, but really became the team's best defenseman I would argue. More offense than I remembered. That being said, I sometimes get the feeling he's Carlson Lite. I think Orlov does play better defense and he still puts up points, but he isn't immune to noticeable errors. Difference is that Carlson makes a lot of like small errors that you can point out multiple times (fumbling the puck, stupid drop passes on PP breakouts, fanning passes, letting guys get by him), Orlov will once in awhile make a big error (ex. that dumb hit or whatever that was on Kevan Miller). Orlov can certainly have ups and downs but he's actually on a decent contract and plays well overall. I think Orlov is probably safe, perhaps another dark horse trade candidate but I don't really see that. Turns 30 in July. Under contract for another 2 years with a $5.1mil cap hit, M-NTC.

Justin Schultz: 46GP 3G-24A-27P. RD. A good season by Schultz in his first in DC after being signed in the offseason. I think he had a strong start to the season, but he was injured for a long while and didn't quite seem 100% the second half. Played on the 2nd PP unit, 2nd pairing of the top 4. I think Schultz is safe because this team is thin on RD and only under contract for next season. Turns 31 in July. Under contract for 1yr, $4mil cap hit.

Brendan Dillon: 56GP 2G-17A-19P. LD. I'm just gonna come out and say I do not like Dillon on this team. One of BMac's worst contracts in my opinion. Numbers probably say he is a decent top 4 LD, but man he can be tough to watch. More than any other defenseman, he seemed to be like a traffic cone that a new teenage driver could swerve around for a breakaway, particularly when he played with Carlson which is not what you want for your top pairing. Last year, he took a ton of penalties too which is again not what you want, though that got a bit better this year. Plays physically which is good and again, I'm sure there will be some numbers that say he's decent. But I'm very sour towards him and I don't think I'm the only one. Dillon is completely expendable, and I think he could be someone who's unsafe or uncertain for both trade and expansion draft. Washington has two great LD prospects in waiting with Martin Fehervary and Alexander Alexeyev, both are NHL ready. Perhaps he's kept only so Fehervary and Alexeyev can rotate in and out of the lineup on the 3rd pairing/7D, but I just say f*** it and play them both. Fehervary fit in when Kempny was out at the beginning of the 2019-20 and looked solid. But this is exactly what this team should be doing. Play these young defenseman so they gain experience and we can actually put them in the lineup for them to be the regulars and staples they should be in the future instead of an aging pylon like Dillon. Turns 31 in November. Under contract for another 3yrs, $3.9mil cap hit.

Nick Jensen: 53GP 2G-12A-14P. RD. Jensen has gotten better each season he's been on the team. A lot of people despised Jensen early on in his time on the team, but he was one of the few bright spots the second half of last season and that carried over into a good season for him this year. He and Chara were a pretty good 3rd pairing. Jensen however is probably expendable and his future may be uncertain. On the one hand, this team has no RD depth and the RD who play seem to be locked into their roles (the LD side sees a lot more juggling). On the other hand, he won't be protected, teams seem to be interested in him for like a mid-round pick, and we have TvR signed for cheaper so if we lose Jensen we probably have his replacement already signed. Turns 31 in September. Under contract for another 2yrs, $2.5mil cap hit

Trevor van Riemsdyk: 20GP 1G-2A-3P. LD/RD. Not much to say, he was the team's 7D this year. Looked good when in action. First year with the team, don't really know what he did to get an extension and force Siegenthaler to be traded to NJ (one trade I think we will come to regret, Siegs is a very good, young defenseman - again, something this team needed to hold on to). TvR probably safe. He'll definitely be exposed, and maybe instead of Jensen they take him? Doubt it though. Turns 30 in July. Under contract for another 2yrs, 950k cap hit.

Michal Kempny. 0GP. LD. This feels like an honorable mention. Kempny has had awful luck with long-term injuries. So his role and future is very uncertain. Do we trade him for what we can get, which will pretty much be scraps? Or do we hang in there and see how he does next year? I say the team hangs with him. My biggest fear is that we keep everyone on the LD side (Orlov, Dillon, Kempny) and it forces Fehervary and Alexeyev to AGAIN not see NHL time when they really should be playing ASAP. I can't even remember how he looked cause it was over a year since he last played. So does the team try their luck with him? If so, top 4 pairing or 3rd pairing? Or do we trade him for a late round draft pick?

CONCLUSION

This team lost because it is old. Age leads to slower speed and more injury prone, and that’s exactly what happened. What made it worse was certain guys making bad decisions to the detriment of the team. The team spends to the cap, but that makes it hard to make moves when there are large contracts in a flat cap. This team does not need a rebuild, but a significant retool. And that requires moving out at least 1 large contract from the core. We need to bring in youth and speed on affordable/decent contracts. We can be competitive, but probably not like competing for division championships, and won't be any sort of new dynasty but hope to make some noise as an underdog or something if everything can just click and get hot like in 2017-18. These trades moves fit with what I believe Washington should do. We stay competitive, get a bit younger, move some contracts. Most importantly, we collect a bounty of immediate draft picks so we can start developing guys ASAP.

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