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Who Says No

Created by: dannibalcorpse
Team: 2022-23 New York Islanders
Initial Creation Date: May 6, 2022
Published: May 6, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Legend
Left Handed
Original Team
Waivers Exempt
Right Handed
Position
Trade Clause
Max Perf. Bonus
Expiry Status
Term Remaining
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
Waivers ExemptMcDavid, Connor
$12,500,000 (Performance Bonus$250,000)
C
NMC
UFA - 5
Description
Signings aren't important here, just mostly looking for feedback on the trade.

Here's my reasoning:

You can kind of look at this trade as two one-for-ones smashed together. Let's look at the first half, Anthony Beauvillier for Connor Brown - the Islanders get arguable the better player in this one, but give up the younger asset (Brown is 28, Beau is 25.)

Brown is an all-way player (both PP & PK minutes with the Sens this year) while Beau is primarily a PP guy when he goes on the special teams. Brown is signed for 1 more year at $3.6M, while Beau has 2 more years at $4.15M. I'd say it's pretty even here with an edge towards Ottawa, with Beau coming off a down season and Brown being his normally consistent self.

That makes the second part of the trade Josh Bailey for Colin White. I don't think it's any stretch of the imagination to say that Josh Bailey has been a more productive offensive player than White - Bailey had 44 points in 74 games this season in a slightly down year for him; White has 28 points in 69 games spread over the last 2 years combined. Bailey gets a point in the "intangibles" column for being voted an alternate captain on a veteran-heavy team - something that could be valuable to a team coming out of a rebuild like the Senators. He also had 33 point in 42 playoff games over the last 2 seasons, so he has a lot of experience in that regard.

Basically, I'd argue that Bailey is the better player and, since the cap hits are basically equal ($5M for Bailey, $4.75M for White), you have to look at term. White's got 3 years left, and Bailey has 2. And, for what it's worth, Bailey's actual salary for those 2 years is $3.5M on the $5M hit - not sure if that's still as important to the Sens since Melnyk's passing, but I don't think it hurts.

I think Bailey has slightly more value than White; I think Brown has slightly more value than Beauvillier. I think it evens out when you make it a 2-for-2, and this would fit Lou's desired "hockey trade" he spoke of at this year's deadline.

So, I put it to the people of CF: which team says no to this deal?
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$850,000
2$4,500,000
2$850,000
2$850,000
2$850,000
2$850,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$800,000
1$2,000,000
Trades
Buyouts
Buried
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2022
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2023
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Logo of the NYI
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Logo of the NYI
Logo of the NYI
2024
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$82,500,000$74,764,963$245,796$1,287,500$7,735,037
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the New York Islanders
$7,000,000$7,000,000
LW
NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the New York Islanders
$7,000,000$7,000,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the New York Islanders
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$537,500$538K)
RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the New York Islanders
$6,000,000$6,000,000
C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the New York Islanders
$5,000,000$5,000,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$3,600,000$3,600,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the New York Islanders
$5,000,000$5,000,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$1,200,000$1,200,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the New York Islanders
$750,000$750,000 (Performance Bonus$750,000$750K)
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the New York Islanders
$2,500,000$2,500,000
C
UFA - 5
Logo of the New York Islanders
$1,750,000$1,750,000
RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the New York Islanders
$850,000$850,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the New York Islanders
$5,750,000$5,750,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 7
Logo of the New York Islanders
$6,150,000$6,150,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 8
Logo of the New York Islanders
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 1
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the New York Islanders
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
RFA - 3
Logo of the New York Islanders
$4,000,000$4,000,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the New York Islanders
$850,000$850,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the New York Islanders
$1,450,000$1,450,000
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the New York Islanders
$1,100,000$1,100,000
LW
UFA - 4
Logo of the New York Islanders
$800,000$800,000
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the New York Islanders
$750,000$750,000
C
UFA - 1

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Top Comments

May 6, 2022 at 3:51 p.m.
#1
sensonfire
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Joined: Feb. 2021
Posts: 12,202
Likes: 4,595
Islanders unless Lou can get Brown an extension.


White has never stayed healthy since signing his massive contract.

Brown is a pending UFA next season.


This is a trade made in heaven for Ottawa.
M0LSON liked this.
May 6, 2022 at 3:54 p.m.
#2
we miss leo k
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Joined: Feb. 2018
Posts: 6,028
Likes: 5,148
Quoting: sensonfire
Islanders.


White has never stayed healthy since signing his massive contract.

Brown is a pending UFA next season.


This is a trade made in heaven for Ottawa.


Never underestimate just how badly Islanders fans want Josh Bailey gone, lol.

I think Brown would fit well on the Islanders but him being a pending UFA complicates it - although he wouldn't be the first guy to have been traded to the Lamoriello Islanders who stuck around after their contract expired. I think if you could get him at no more than $5M it'd be a great add to the team.

White could be a bounce-back guy if he stays healthy - but yeah, you never know with a guy who keeps getting hurt. I haven't followed as much, is he one of those "keeps injuring the same thing over and over and you're worried" kinda guys, or the "wow this guy is just super unlucky and keeps getting freak injuries" kinda player?
May 6, 2022 at 3:58 p.m.
#3
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Joined: Nov. 2016
Posts: 3,455
Likes: 1,624
Isles say no and your reasoning is incorrect in the write up.

Beau at worst is equivalent to Brown, and I would argue a better player who if his shot % was not 6 points below his career average would have had 8 more goals this past season. He is one of the only forwards with speed on the team and a big part of why Nelson scored so many goals this year is because Beau can get in quick on a forecheck and get the puck. He is not a PP specialist by any means, he only had 11 PP points to Brown's 9 last year.

White is unneeded just as Bailey is. Why would the Isles add a forward with more term who scores less when they need to move Bailey and his full contract out for cap space to re-sign Dobson and acquire a 2 LD.

Bad proposal for the Isles.
May 6, 2022 at 3:59 p.m.
#4
KFTW
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Joined: Jul. 2018
Posts: 44,760
Likes: 25,339
Very interesting proposal. I really wanna say yes tho.
sensonfire and M0LSON liked this.
May 6, 2022 at 4:05 p.m.
#5
we miss leo k
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Joined: Feb. 2018
Posts: 6,028
Likes: 5,148
Quoting: Warrior24
Isles say no and your reasoning is incorrect in the write up.

Beau at worst is equivalent to Brown, and I would argue a better player who if his shot % was not 6 points below his career average would have had 8 more goals this past season. He is one of the only forwards with speed on the team and a big part of why Nelson scored so many goals this year is because Beau can get in quick on a forecheck and get the puck. He is not a PP specialist by any means, he only had 11 PP points to Brown's 9 last year.

White is unneeded just as Bailey is. Why would the Isles add a forward with more term who scores less when they need to move Bailey and his full contract out for cap space to re-sign Dobson and acquire a 2 LD.

Bad proposal for the Isles.


I think that Brown & Beau are very close in value, just think that if Lou was going to move Beau this summer, it would be with Beau having a lower value coming off an unlucky season. I don't think that Lou makes a trade for the sake of making a trade, but Beau & Bailey are arguably the forwards that are easiest to move if they want to (no NTCs and shorter term than the other big money forwards.) I feel like Brown would thrive in Trotz's system as well, but that's pure speculation on my part.

White's contract sucks because he can't stay healthy. Bailey's contract is hard to move because he's 32. One of those two things can change for the better in the future, and I think it might be worth the gamble that White can stay on the ice to bring his contract's value back out of the cap dump territory it's currently in.
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