WHY MATTHEWS WILL LEAVE

Team: 2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Aug. 14, 2022

Published: Aug. 14, 2022

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

So the max allowable contract under the CBA is 20% of the salary cap at the time of signing. I am assuming here that the salary cap will be 87.5m which means a max contract offer would be 17.5m AAV. Using CapFriendlys income tax calculator (https://www.capfriendly.com/income-tax-calculator/auston-matthews), it can be seen that Matthews would be making more money in every single market that is not in Ontario. And that is on the current year of his contract where he will have a base salary of 750k and a signing bonus of 7.2m. Assuming Matthews signs a deal similar to Matt Tkachuk, 1m in base salary and the rest in bonus’s (which makes the contract near buyout proof), Matthews would be netting $8,161,850 per year on a max contract in Toronto before escrow and agent fees. If Matthews were to sign the exact same contract in Nashville (the best city for a contract of that type), he would be netting $10,626,066 a year. That means that a 7 year contract of 17.5m in Nashville and an 8 year contract of 17.5m in Toronto, matthews would be netting $65,294,800 total in Toronto and $74,382,462 total in Nashville or a difference slightly over $9m despite the fact that matthews is signed for an extra year.

Matthews has brand deals in Toronto but ones that can easily be replaced in America. Of his 7 main deals, two are Toronto based, scotia bank and bet99. Bet99 can be replaced by any of the sports books in America. Scotia bank is different but I doubt matthews isn’t able to find somebody who pays him similarly in America.

Matthews could be offered 17.5m by Toronto and a deal with the same structure for 15m, is more lucrative for matthews in 14 other organizations, all based in the states. Of those 14 teams, the ones I see being the best bets for a matthews signing are Arizona, Dallas, and Seattle. AZ and SEA are imo the ones who have to do the least to get Matthews. DAL would have to clear some cap to get Matthew’s but it is very possible. There are other good bets as well with vegas who I doubt anybody wants to sign with but matthews could be there because of the mix of brand deals and base salary. Detroit is always a possibility as well with Steve Yzerman. And LA is the most comparable to Toronto in terms of tax dollars as there is only a 1% difference in total money brought home based on contract but the brand deals could be much more lucrative in LA.

***DISCLAIMER***
I know it’s not all money but from a pure monetary standpoint, it makes the most sense for Matthew’s to leave. The brand deals don’t cover the difference of playing somewhere else. Matthews I believe will leave as it’s common for American stars to leave Canadian markets as of late and there isn’t anything that makes Toronto different. Toronto isn’t a super desirable location to play for based on numbers alone. The area doesn’t do it much better. “But we have the best fan base” I don’t doubt you have the largest fan base but is that what players want? Guadreau went from being recognized by everybody in Calgary to likely not having anybody know him in Columbus. Hockey players in Canada are treated like movie stars in LA. Some may not like that lifestyle.

Monetarily, matthews loses money every year he plays in Toronto and leaving could net him millions while also having him play in a more desirable location for him.

THIS IS ALL SPECULATION AND I COULD BE WRONG

Anyways let me know your thoughts and why or why not matthews would leave

Team explanation:
LW: the team matthews signs with and the amount he signs for
C: what he nets per year before agent fees and escrow which is a constant
RW: how much more Matthews makes a year compared to Toronto