Edited Mar. 15 at 12:50 p.m.
While I somewhat agree, you’re not getting a Matthews for a Matthews, and Toronto based on how they do this playoffs has to do something.
If they cant really make hay this post season and then cant agree a new contract this offseason, you are looking at the status quo, and I just cant see Toronto going towards the TDL, as ever a top 4 club in the East, and then dealing him at deadline or dealing his rights for a lot less. I cant see them just doing that at the TDL, it would make no sense that late in season and really limits the buyers (cap space). So if they don’t really make it past round 2 this post season, what can you do? After discussion on another thread, Matthews probably wants to go to the states, but probably not ARZ. So who would be willing, able to make that deal, taking the philly example above, for a single player and the cap dump of Murray, Toronto can get a top 6 forward, a top 8 forward, a top 4 dman to replace Brodie, etc... and build a deep and young team and get back some of the futures they currently lack and still have cap space in UFA.
Farabee, Tippett, York and 2 1sts is a pretty good offer, but obviously not a Matthews in the bunch, but I really don’t think that’ll happen. Its just a change of course for TOR while retaining cap space to build a team AND having good young players to build more than a 4-5 forward team. For PHI they have 2-3 top young forward prospects and Matthews could go into a team that has a solid core (injuries and development permitting) with Koneckny, Couturier, Hart, etc.... PHI can afford those losses and the future re-signing, if Brink/Allison look likely to replace Tippett, Foerester to replace Farabee, Zamula/Attard/Andrae to replace York. Maybe its not enough but 3 above average players under 24, a good goalie prospect in errson and 2 probable TOP TEN 1st rounders in 2024 isn;t a bad offer to fill out a team perenially relying on 4-5 players.
Look at FLA/CGY, Tkachuk is lighting it up in FLA but they don’t have depth, Huberdeau and Weegar (who was expiring) and the rest to CGY was seen as a win, but all have struggled. Certainly Tkachuk is by far the best player, but CGY has the better future.
I just don’t think that Toronto will want 6 1sts/futures, they’ll want a mix of good players, some futures to keep marner/nylander and team successful, and while maybe not the best offer theyd see, one of the few teams who could offer up a good mix of young players and picks.
Theres certainly other teams, say NYR offers lafreniere, kakko, 2 1sts, etc... but can they afford to re-sign him and based on their current success, why would they upset the apple cart?
As an example I've done a second ACGM of what TOR would look like, and its interesting for sure