Keeping the Big Pieces Part 2

I'd like to hear why Connor is going for a bridge but Morrissey's not? I don't see Morrissey signing long term in this situation with arbitration and all. If he waited another season or two he could sign long term with much better money.

I doubt that. Morrissey has had 20 and 26 point seasons in the NHL to this point, with decent but not mind blowing shot metrics. Add in that he plays a position that is naturally hard to 'break out' in. And for good measure you can add that he is not a shoot-first kind of player, even going back to his junior days when he did put up big offensive numbers. If you're expecting a breakout season from what he's already produced I think you're in for a tough go. His best attribute is his chemistry with Trouba and that he can put up decent but not mind-blowing numbers with very tough minutes. So if Morrissey's upside is what we're at with maybe a minimal gain that probably comes out to around 5mill/yr. If we go with the Matt Cane numbers that have him listed a shade over 4mill. Without going completely accounting geek on you, the time value of money and the concept of his prime as a window would say it would be smarter not to take a bridge.

Connor is much more likely to improve given that he is younger, and playing a position where players' production can jump higher in the first few years of his career. It's not hard to see him as an eventual 8+mill/yr guy if he cleans up his shot metrics, which is very possible to happen. Connor has a pretty unnaturally high shooting percentage so it's likely his numbers might take a hit next year when that sh% comes back down to Earth, but to reiterate. Forwards and especially wingers have much more potential to raise their numbers higher on a year-to-year basis on the back of development through their ELC.

For the Jets bridging Connor rather than JoMo makes way more sense since the next big contract to come off the books is Byfuglien. The year after we sign Connor we do have to sign Roslovic and Niku but that should be pretty open shut, especially since Little's NMC becomes a M-NTC. You do not want to have sign Niku, Morrissey, and Roslovic when the only big contract that comes off the books might be Little (praying that's who Seattle takes). Signing Connor when Byfuglien (and Perrault if we haven't traded him) comes off the books is another story, and will be cake compared to what Chevy will go through this year and next.

I'm not thinking of a breakout season because in many ways he already had that. I'm just looking at other deals that have been done in the recent past in similar situation. Not sure if you want to even call it a bridge deal, just a smaller deal. I don't think any good GM wants to evaluate the worth of a player based on a good chemistry with another player.

Fair enough, but I'm more interested in taking these ideas to the logical conclusion, from a completely numbers standpoint. The best way to make money in the NHL is with an 8 year contract front loaded as much as possible with as much signing bonus as possible. If Morrissey has some issue with staying in Winnipeg for 8 years or the Jets have an issue with offering for 8 years, or don't want to maximize the amount of money they give him due to injury risk or whatever, then c'est la vie.

In regards to chemistry, my thoughts exactly. Which is why, he can likely be signed for much cheaper than he's worth. You can show empirically that Josh Morrissey increases the shot metrics of all his d partners. That is huge because for Trouba it's the difference between being outshout and outshooting the opponent when he's on the ice. If that doesn't remind you of another non-flashy defenseman that breaks just above even corsi, isn't known for offense, and elevates his teammates metrics, then I refer you to the preds series for one Mattias Ekholm. Going by Ekholm's box score stat line, he is about a 3-5mill player and yet I found myself thinking he was better than PK, Josi, and Ellis. That's exactly what Morrissey is. As a fan, I want to see him locked up for as many years as we can get, as cheaply as you can get when you're signing someone for their effect on teammates, and not actual offense or box score stats.