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Forums/Armchair-GM

how's the value

Created by: Wildfan24
Team: 2017-18 Minnesota Wild
Initial Creation Date: Nov. 27, 2017
Published: Nov. 27, 2017
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
just to get some size and physicality
Trades
MIN
  1. Gudbranson, Erik
  2. 2018 2nd round pick (VAN)
  3. 2019 4th round pick (VAN)
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2018
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Logo of the VAN
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Logo of the VGK
Logo of the BUF
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Logo of the WSH
Logo of the MIN
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2019
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Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the VAN
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Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
2020
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$75,000,000$64,162,629$0$700,000$10,837,371
Left WingCentreRight Wing
$5,750,000$5,750,000
C, RW
UFA - 3
$6,750,000$6,750,000
C
NMC
UFA - 1
$5,250,000$5,250,000
LW, RW
UFA - 5
$2,875,000$2,875,000
RW, LW
UFA - 4
$3,500,000$3,500,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$4,600,000$4,600,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
$660,000$660,000
RW
UFA - 1
$660,000$660,000
C
UFA - 1
$3,200,000$3,200,000
C, RW
UFA - 3
$1,150,000$1,150,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$1,000,000$1,000,000 (Performance Bonus$700,000$700K)
C, LW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
$7,538,462$7,538,462
LD
NMC
UFA - 8
$5,187,500$5,187,500
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
$2,166,667$2,166,667
G
M-NTC
UFA - 4
$3,500,000$3,500,000
RD
UFA - 1
$2,550,000$2,550,000
RD
UFA - 1
$650,000$650,000
G
UFA - 2
$700,000$700,000
RD
UFA - 1
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RD
UFA - 1
$725,000$725,000
LD
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
$7,538,462$7,538,462
LW
NMC
UFA - 8

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Nov. 27, 2017 at 7:45 p.m.
#1
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Joined: Jul. 2016
Posts: 112
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Gudbranson is a traffic cone. This makes no sense.
Nov. 27, 2017 at 7:55 p.m.
#2
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Joined: Apr. 2016
Posts: 987
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it's to get bigger and strong defensively there's not much dif between the plays 3 points and a plus 6 different wild need to get stronger on the d. not like brodin is gonna be doing anything more out standing.
Nov. 27, 2017 at 9:34 p.m.
#3
Minnesota Wild
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Likes: 335
This is a terrible trade that makes our defense worse. Our 3 best D by far are Suter, Spurgeon, and Brodin. As Odin said, Gudbranson is trash defensively. Damn near as bad as Quincey has been for us this year.

If you want to get bigger/tougher, trade Dumba or Reilly. They'll get the best value without tanking our defense. Also, Quincey has been a cancer so far. We should have anyone but him in the lineup.
Nov. 28, 2017 at 3:36 a.m.
#4
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still don't see how gudbranson is this bad like u all are saying he has 3 less points and a 6 plus minus different then brodin. why trade the only 2 defensive men that have any offensive potential ? brodin and gudbranson are so close in style in play. plus Riley has absolute no value as he has sucked the most of any of the wilds d this year
Nov. 28, 2017 at 4:18 p.m.
#5
Minnesota Wild
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Quoting: Wildfan24
still don't see how gudbranson is this bad like u all are saying he has 3 less points and a 6 plus minus different then brodin. why trade the only 2 defensive men that have any offensive potential ? brodin and gudbranson are so close in style in play. plus Riley has absolute no value as he has sucked the most of any of the wilds d this year


That's because I looked at his advanced stats. He's not good. Plus minus and point totals don't come close to telling the whole story. Suter, Spurgeon, and Brodin are the only reliable D we have right now. You realize you're trying to fix defense by comparing (non-predictive) offensive stats? Trading for Gudbranson would be bringing in another guy on par with Quincey and Reilly thinking it would help fix defensive issues.

You trade one of those two because outside of Quincey, they have caused the most defensive breakdowns. Their offense is almost nonexistant this year and they're giving up a ton of chances. You try to argue argue those two still have value with a change of scenery and talk up "potential".
Nov. 28, 2017 at 4:25 p.m.
#6
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Joined: May 2015
Posts: 19,674
Likes: 6,810
Maybe the value is good maybe it isn't. But trading isn't about whats fair. Its about trading from a point of strength or weakness or somewhat in between.

Gudbranson is a UFA this year. He's not playing good. He's very 1 dimensional.
Brodin is signed long term to an affordable deal. he's playing decently. He's not really that 1 dimensional.

See the difference? Its not about what you want and why you want it. That's fine. Its about trading for that asset with right amount of asset going back. IMO If you really want Gudbranson, send Vancouver a 2nd rounder and a B prospect and its done. No need to add Brodin.
Nov. 29, 2017 at 11:37 p.m.
#7
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Joined: May 2016
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Likes: 3,642
Just out of curosity what advanced stats did you look at? If it's anything that's based off of raw corsi then they are going to look really bad. One stat I find interesting is the non-PP/PK GF/GA.

Name: GF/GA
Brodin: 26/18 (his PDO is 104, so he's had some luck)
Dumba: 22/22
Suter: 24/23
Spurgeon:19/19
Gudbranson: 8/6 (different team, so it's a little harder to compare)

The trade value is way off. A solid d-man on a decent contract that runs thru the 20-21 season, for a rental d-man (of similar quality by your PoV) and a couple of picks isn't enough going back to Minny.
Nov. 30, 2017 at 2:03 p.m.
#8
Minnesota Wild
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Everything I used was score and venue adjusted. Corisca has RelT stats which are on-ice minus the weighted average of all teammates without player (weighted by player TOI% with teammate). It is the best way of isolating an individual's performance.

I looked at a number of stats including RelTCF%, RelTFF%, RelTxGF% as the main ones. This showed him being almost as bad as Quincey.
Nov. 30, 2017 at 5:57 p.m.
#9
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I'm not a fan of using corsica (just don't like the site), so I'm not that proficient at getting all the stats from it. All in all I'm not a fan of advanced stats for d-men. fenwick and corsi are just shots for and against as the base of all their numbers. Most of the sites I was most comfortable with all shutdown.

The quality chances are more interesting to me. I like looking at the heat maps on hockeyviz for comparing d-men. The spider maps are nice there too. I still prefer the eye test, to the current advanced stats. They just aren't refined enough for my liking. They are do have their uses, but they only tell part of the story.
 
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