Joined: May 2015
Posts: 19,674
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Here's the thing, the TDL is all about markets. If you have a talented winger available but every team already has a ton of good wingers, is that talented winger going to fetch a top return? Probably not.
I think it has nothing to do with whether or not Grabner is worth a 1st or not. It more has to do with what the market is for the teams who are going all in. A team like TB for example, if they have Kucherov, Palat and Killorn all go down with injuries until mid playoffs, you better bet they'll want to add a guy like Grabner. If there are 3 teams who all have a bunch of injuries to their wingers right before the TDL, all of sudden their is a big market for wingers and the price on all the available ones goes up.
IMO is Grabner worth a late 1st? No i don't think so. If something similar to the scenario above happens could he fetch a late 1st? Absolutely.
There is also one other factor which is the domino effect. If 2 of those 3 teams trade for Pacioretty and Kane respectively, the 3rd team that has yet to make a move and was in on those other two guys, now feels like they are behind the eight ball compared to those other teams. Depending where management is and if the owner wants the GM to go for it a bit more, they might get desperate to add some help and end up paying more for a guy like Grabner than he is worth.