So I’ve been reading a lot of posts on ACGM about how terrible Price’s cap hit is when his contract starts. But I don’t see his cap hit is being that big of an issue. With the salary cap going up over the next few years, it’s 100% likely that there will be other elite goaltenders that will be making the same cap hit as Price in a few years, specifically guys like Bobrovsky and Holtby.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not trying to defend Prices contract. But imo it’s the term of the contract that is terrible and not the cap hit.

Let me try and use an example. When Henrik Lundqvist signed his contract in 2013, he was considered back then the best goalie in the world, and got a cap hit of $8.5mil when the salary cap was $63.4mil. So Lundqvist took 13.4% of his teams cap hit. The deal was done with consideration that the cap would go up. And it did.

Now on to Carey Price. His $10.5mil cap hit will start next season. Let’s assume the cap will be $80mil (could be higher, or a little lower), Price would be taking roughly 13.1% of the Habs cap space. This falls almost exactly in line with the Lundqvist contract. Same as this deal was made with consideration the salary cap will continuing to grow over the same period of Price’s deal.

Just trying to clear things up. I still think Price’s contract is terrible, but the cap hit is absolutely fine. The term on the other hand... Bergefail and Habs management should have their fingers crossed that Price can keep his level of play until he’s 39... but then again... NYR did the same for Lundqvist.

I think the reason that everyone is so upset about the contract is that Price hasn't been nearly worth that so far this year. Yes, he's gotten minimal support, but fans take one look at his numbers this season and flip. A .908 SV% and 2.93 GAA from a guy locked up at $10.5M long term is scary. I'm sure that the numbers won't go much lower than this, but as long as they are this low, the fans aren't going to be pleased one bit.

I think you nailed it when talking about Bob and Holtby getting similar contracts. All three will have gotten these contracts at age 30, so they will probably all be terrible with the term. I just wonder which teams will be giving out these extensions. If Korpisalo is ready to be a starter when Bob's deal expires, I'd assume he's out the door. Holtby should for sure be gone, with Samsonov taking over full-time when his contract expires.

But back to Price. If we're talking trade value, I don't think that there's any team right now that would be looking to make that type of upgrade at goalie and can provide the cap space to do so. You'd think that a team like Buffalo would kick the tires on it, but it isn't worth giving up the required assets to get him. He's obviously not going to be traded, but even if he was on the block, I doubt there'd be any takers unless Montreal retains on his deal.

I 100% agree with you. But about Price’s stats this year. Price started the season 3-7-1 with a .877 save percentage before being sidelined with an “undisclosed injury”. We now know Price was diagnosed with Chronic fatigue syndrome. Which explains the poor stats, since he wasn’t able to recover from his starts. Price has since recovered, by hiring a nutritionist (the same guy who GSP hired to prepare his fight against Bisping). Since Price’s return, he’s 10-8-3 with a .923 save percentage. So even though MTL is still struggling, Price is almost back to his MVP self, it’s just a shame he’s on a poop team (thanks Bergefail...)

Here's a rough breakdown of valuations in AGM:

1st round prospect = guaranteed 1st liner or top pairing defenseman.
2nd round prospect = practically guaranteed 1st liner or top pairing defenseman. Might as well say he's the equivalent of a 1st round prospect, in which case, see above.
3rd round prospect or later = who cares? Unless your team wants him, in which case, see above.

Age 27 or younger = shouldn't trade, might still be good
Age 28 or older = almost 30, see below
Age 30 or older = declining, too old, no value
Age 35 or older = corpse on skates or cap dump

$3M or less = fair salary
Over $3M = overpaid
Over $6M = albatross contract

1 year term = rental, not worth giving up assets for
2 year term = still a rental, still not worth it
3 or 4 year term = maybe worth trading for, as long as the player is 27 or younger and has a salary less than $3M
5 year or longer term = terrible contract, stuck with that player until they become a corpse on skates

All you have to do to determine a player's value is cross reference between those categories. For example: a 30 year old player with a $6M cap hit for 5 years, is declining, old, has no value and will be a cap dump in the final year, and has a terrible, albatross contract.

I'm only half kidding and mostly exaggerating, but you actually see this stuff all the time.

For Price specifically, he hits all the worst misconceptions. IRL, he's worth less in trade value than an elite player, but is just as, if not more important than an elite player in terms of value to your team.
His contract lessens the number of teams that can manage his cap hit, but not his value to the few teams that can. There are rarely more than a handful of teams seriously interested in any one player, and we continue to see multiple pick/prospect packages when a big name is sold off.

I see "Price isnt worth as much because of his contract" from the same people that are proposing trades for him. If they think the contract is that bad, why do they want him? If you're trading for him, you've obviously found a way to make it work, and any good GM IRL can do the same.

It's just posturing in most cases, with the contract as an excuse to sell the idea that you don't have to give up as much, or can get Montreal to foot part of the bill.

Also, $3M a year for 8 years retention is not something you just throw in to make a trade work. That trade had better be $24M worth of awesome for Montreal. Normally it's not compensated for at all, it's just expected. Maybe on a 2 or 3 year deal for a lesser player, but not on an 8 year deal for Carey frickin Price.

I think you might have proved that maybe the contract for Price isn't particularly good. You gave the Lundqvist example and four years later, Lundqvist still has the highest salary and isn't the best goalie. Not saying that the Price contract is bad, but you're right the contract can be compared to Lundqvist. As of now we no one knows what the cap will be in future years or the playing abilities of players will be. And certainly having a few players making 2 million each overpaid is still good cap management if it happens. Just don't have too many overpaid players.

re Lundqvist: funnily enough, relative to his role for the Rangers he's still underpaid. without him, the team would never have been relevant.

Well I did write that the term of the contract is terrible

But I mostly used the Lundqvist comparison not to say his contract length sucks too, but that his cap hit actually isn’t that bad anymore, or is more manageable, since the salary cap has gone up. So for Price, sure $10.5mil is something to balk at, but in 3-4 years it won’t be as bad as it seems.

And I’m willing to bet the same can and will be said about Price in about 5 years, just like Lundqvist today.

Blazingbat and Obama. What I didn't like about the Lundqvist contract is how so much higher it is compared to any other goalie. 8.5 to 7.25, even four years later after the his signing, That's why Lunqvist and the Price contracts seem high, although not necessarily cap threatening to the team.

I think the Cap is still pretty bad even with what you are writing, but I'd agree the term is the bigger problem. Why can't it be that both the Cap + Term add up to making it a terrible contract?

That being said they could still get something really good for him. If Arizona gave up the #7 pick for Stepan, then they'd probably give up Pick #2 thru #4 + prospect for Price. If they land #1 overall than maybe they give up 2019 1st + Roster player like Perlini or Dvorak or Domi + Prospect. That'd still be good.

So effing true, its scary rico.........

Doesn't matter though, I had a Canes fan respond to a declined Price trade offer with "Have fun with that terrible contract", which I responded with "have fun never being a playoff team ever". Lol people don't care bout playoffs, don't care about Cups or any thing like that. People don't want to look stupid. They'd rather fleece a team in a trade then actually win the cup. A Canes fan would rather suck for the next 5 years with Scott darling and Cam Ward than to add a goalie who took a shitty team to multiple playoff runs. That's where we are at now.

It doesn't make any sense. People complain that the Habs are a garbage team and only make the playoffs solely on the back of Price. Then when Price is offered in a trade, its the same old cliche "Price is sooo overrated an that contract is terrible."

It can't be both ways. Habs can't be a consistent playoff team with crappy players these past years and Price be overrated at the same time. Someone on this team needs to be good enough to carry the weight. (No pun intended). Its pretty obvious who that player is.

Secondly, the speed at which a player goes from STUD to P.O.S is astounding on this site. Pacioretty is probably the biggest example. Has literally everything going for him in his long career and has 40 games in which he is not on pace for his regular numbers, and all of a sudden people get cold feet. The worst part is take the past 5 years worth of first 40 games of Pacioretty's season and you 'll see the differences between his good seasons and his bad season this year comes down to what 4-5 goals, 4-5 assists? A guy goes from a STUD to virtually a P.O.S because in a year where his team is having their worst in a long time and didn't score an extra 8-10 points........ is that logical? If it is, fine but that applies to everyone. If ever Tarasenko isn't on pace for 30 goals, I'm going to be the first one to point out how "finished he is". I'll give a late 1st next year and Jacob DeLaRose for him......I guarantee the amount of hypocrisy from STL fans will be unpalatable.

I said a couple times already, people on here only want the flavor of the month. "What have you done for me lately?" mentality.

I can get being worrisome about his contract because its expensive and its for a long term but keep it at that. The player is the same guy he was last year. Still capable of stealing games at will. Same guy capable of being uber calm in net giving his players confidence. Same guy that plays the puck with ease and transitions the play away from his own net.

People confuse bad player with expensive contract with good player with expensive contract.

- Matt Moulson is an example of a bad player on a bad contract. Brings nothing to his team anymore. The game has passed him by. The money spent on him is virtually a waste. Even if he was being paid 2M a year is too much. (This is the example of a cap dump)
- Carey Price is an example of a star player on a "bad" contract. Is still and will remain the best player on the team for a long time. can go to a contender and in a cup, easily. Is not a waste of money. Is simply overpaid for what a goalie can contribute to a team. If he was making 8M we wouldn't even be having this conversation. (Other examples might be Toews, O'Reilly, etc)