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TDL - Modest Sell/Buy

Created by: jfalstaff
Team: 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Feb. 12, 2018
Published: Feb. 13, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Nothing crazy. Komarov and Bozak stay through the end of their contracts, cos... playoffs.

JvR goes because he's not staying and gotta recoup the assets spent to upgrade at D.
Trades
1.
TOR
  1. 2018 1st round pick (NSH)
  2. 2019 2nd round pick (NSH)
NSH
  1. van Riemsdyk, James ($1,000,000 retained)
2.
NYR
  1. Brown, Connor
  2. Nielsen, Andrew
  3. 2018 1st round pick (TOR)
  4. 2019 2nd round pick (TOR)
Additional Details:
(based on Shattenkirk rental which was a 1st & NHL-ready prospect -- because of the extra year, adding another pick & downgrading the prospect to include a young, cost-controlled top-9 player)
3.
TOR
  1. 2018 6th round pick (STL)
Additional Details:
(pick becomes a 4th in STL plays in the finals and Polak dresses for some games...)
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
Buried
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2018
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the STL
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the ANA
2019
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the NSH
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2020
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
24$75,000,000$69,818,332$5,370,000$5,607,500$5,181,668
Left WingCentreRight Wing
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 4
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,850,000$3M)
C
UFA - 2
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RW
UFA - 1
$6,250,000$6,250,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 3
$4,500,000$4,500,000
C
UFA - 5
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RW
UFA - 2
$612,500$612,500
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$4,200,000$4,200,000
C, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
$863,333$863,333
RW
UFA - 2
$2,950,000$2,950,000
RW, LW, C
UFA - 1
$1,000,000$1,000,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
$736,666$736,666 (Performance Bonus$125,000$125K)
RW
UFA - 1
$750,833$750,833 (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
LW, RW
UFA - 1
$2,500,000$2,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 3
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
$4,700,000$4,700,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 7
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 4
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 5
$863,333$863,333
LD/RD
UFA - 3
$850,000$850,000
G
UFA - 2
$4,050,000$4,050,000
LD
UFA - 2
$750,000$750,000
RD
UFA - 1
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LD
UFA - 2
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
$5,300,000$5,300,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 3
$5,250,000$5,250,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1

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Feb. 13, 2018 at 12:34 a.m.
#1
#LeafsFever
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Loved your JVR deal, disliked your McDonagh deal.
dwyer789 liked this.
Feb. 13, 2018 at 2:12 p.m.
#2
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Rangers say no.
Feb. 13, 2018 at 4:57 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: Sagecoll
Rangers say no.


I don't know.

Do you know what the going rate on a top-pairing D with one year left on his deal is?

Rental price (1st and prospect), plus cost-controlled top-9 contributor and another pick for the extra year, seemed reasonable. I suspect they'd find Kapanen instead of Brown more reasonable though.

Anyhow, Can't think of too many trades involving such assets, so... comparable would be interesting.
Feb. 13, 2018 at 5:11 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: jfalstaff
I don't know.

Do you know what the going rate on a top-pairing D with one year left on his deal is?

Rental price (1st and prospect), plus cost-controlled top-9 contributor and another pick for the extra year, seemed reasonable. I suspect they'd find Kapanen instead of Brown more reasonable though.

Anyhow, Can't think of too many trades involving such assets, so... comparable would be interesting.


Going price is: Blue Chip Prospect (Top 3/Top Pair prospect- not top 9), starts with that, nothing less. mid-late 1st, + 2nd + roster player.

Shattenkirk got a 1st, conditional 2nd, and Prospect who ended up being in the blues top 3 ranked prospects 1 PLAYOFF RUN. McDonagh has 2 playoff runs and a whole regular season worth.

The Price is based off of Yandle deal, McDonagh is better, he gets a touch more. But most of the deals we've been quoting are asking for the same. The counter deals we've received call for less.

The last time before that was Chris Pronger in 2009. Chris Pronger was traded at the draft with 1 year left on his deal and he was 35

June 26, 2009: Traded to Philadelphia by Anaheim with Ryan Dingle for Joffrey Lupul, Luca Sbisa, Philadelphia's 1st round choices in 2009 (later traded to Columbus - Columbus selected John Moore) and 2010 (Emerson Etem) Entry Drafts and future considerations.

(Lupul was a 50 point scorer and 25, Sbisa was Philadelphia's 1st round pick the year before). You think we should use that basis instead?
jfalstaff liked this.
Feb. 14, 2018 at 1:41 p.m.
#5
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Pronger, it was clear in 2009, was a future HOFer.

But Yandle sounds plausible. He got Duclair and 1st and a 2nd. Duclair was a 19yo advertised as having top-3 potential, but, drafted in the 3rd round at 80, didn't have the pedigree we associate with "blue chip." His 2 seasons in the Q were good, but not the gaudy numbers we often see out of there. Had a good world Juniors. Realistically, that's a probable top-6 winger with scoring talent.

So... Leafs prospects with that sort of upside, who have had similar junior careers and a similar pedigree... Bracco (2nd, 61OA) and Brooks (4th, 92OA).
Feb. 14, 2018 at 3:53 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: jfalstaff
Pronger, it was clear in 2009, was a future HOFer.

But Yandle sounds plausible. He got Duclair and 1st and a 2nd. Duclair was a 19yo advertised as having top-3 potential, but, drafted in the 3rd round at 80, didn't have the pedigree we associate with "blue chip." His 2 seasons in the Q were good, but not the gaudy numbers we often see out of there. Had a good world Juniors. Realistically, that's a probable top-6 winger with scoring talent.

So... Leafs prospects with that sort of upside, who have had similar junior careers and a similar pedigree... Bracco (2nd, 61OA) and Brooks (4th, 92OA).


You're right. Let's base offers on prospect pedigree and vaguely similar junior careers. Rangers offer Ryan Gropp for Jeremy Bracco straight up. Gropp draft 41st overall in 2015 put up great numbers in the WHL. Jeremy Bracco drafted 61st overall put up great numbers in the OHL. I think you guys add right? Rangers also trade 2nd rounder Ryan Sproul for 5th rounder Connor Carrick.

Realize how stupid it sounds to read someone compare a guy who got 44 points with amazing possession numbers in the NHL on an under 500 team at age 20 verses a guy who has 16 points for the BEST AHL TEAM in the league at the same age.

Now back to the deal at hand, Duclair had more points at 19 than Kapanen has at 21 in the NHL. So you guys start with him and add a good deal right? Especially since McDonagh >>> Yandle.

I'm sorry to insult you like this, but this is a dumb comment.

IF you want to fit into the Yandle structure then you have to go up a tick because McDonagh > Yandle. And that's before adjusting anything. OK so you want to put in Bracco instead of Duclair, well since he's worse you're going to have to compensate elsewhere. Maybe instead of a 1st and 2nd, it's 2 1sts. OK. So you do 2 1sts. Well now you have to add for McDonagh being better than Yandle. So instead of John Moore it's Connor Carrick. And that honestly could work. But wherever you cut, you add elsewhere.

Options include: 1) Bracco, Carrick, 2018 1st, 2019 1st. 2) Dermott, Bracco, 2018 1st, 2018 2nd. 3) Liljegren, Bracco, 2018 1st 2018 3rd. 4) Liljegren, Carrick 2018 1st 2018 2nd. and others if you want to include Kapanen instead.
Feb. 15, 2018 at 2:20 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: Sagecoll
Realize how stupid it sounds to read someone compare a guy who got 44 points with amazing possession numbers in the NHL on an under 500 team at age 20 verses a guy who has 16 points for the BEST AHL TEAM in the league at the same age.


I'm confused. Was Duclair traded for Yandle AFTER he put up "44 points with amazing possession numbers in the NHL on an under 500 team at age 20"? If not, what's the relevance of that to a trade for another top-pairing defenseman with a year and change left on his deal? Why wouldn't the response from any trading partner be "well, put our promising young guy on your garbage roster, and you too will see 44 points next season!"

And if we are pegging Duclair's value on things he did after he was but a prospect with a handful of NHL games (what he was when included in the Yandle deal), why focus on one season 2 years ago and not, say, the 90-odd games he played after that, where he scored 30 points and was, on an under .500 team, a healthy scratch? Or a guy who the Yotes turned into Richard Panik?


Quoting: Sagecoll
IF you want to fit into the Yandle structure then you have to go up a tick because McDonagh > Yandle. And that's before adjusting anything. OK so you want to put in Bracco instead of Duclair, well since he's worse you're going to have to compensate elsewhere. Maybe instead of a 1st and 2nd, it's 2 1sts. OK. So you do 2 1sts. Well now you have to add for McDonagh being better than Yandle. So instead of John Moore it's Connor Carrick. And that honestly could work. But wherever you cut, you add elsewhere.

Options include: 1) Bracco, Carrick, 2018 1st, 2019 1st. 2) Dermott, Bracco, 2018 1st, 2018 2nd. 3) Liljegren, Bracco, 2018 1st 2018 3rd. 4) Liljegren, Carrick 2018 1st 2018 2nd. and others if you want to include Kapanen instead.


IF the Leafs are hungry to add for two runs, I could see them doing Bracco/Grundstrom/Brooks (#2/3 prospect), Carrick/Brown (young good roster player), a 1st, and maybe a later pick. Two top prospects -- Liljegren and Bracco -- and additional picks is nonsense, and I'm pretty confident no team in the league would trade anything like that. The Rags aren't dealing Erik Karlsson here.
Feb. 15, 2018 at 2:39 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: jfalstaff
I'm confused. Was Duclair traded for Yandle AFTER he put up "44 points with amazing possession numbers in the NHL on an under 500 team at age 20"? If not, what's the relevance of that to a trade for another top-pairing defenseman with a year and change left on his deal? Why wouldn't the response from any trading partner be "well, put our promising young guy on your garbage roster, and you too will see 44 points next season!"

And if we are pegging Duclair's value on things he did after he was but a prospect with a handful of NHL games (what he was when included in the Yandle deal), why focus on one season 2 years ago and not, say, the 90-odd games he played after that, where he scored 30 points and was, on an under .500 team, a healthy scratch? Or a guy who the Yotes turned into Richard Panik?






IF the Leafs are hungry to add for two runs, I could see them doing Bracco/Grundstrom/Brooks (#2/3 prospect), Carrick/Brown (young good roster player), a 1st, and maybe a later pick. Two top prospects -- Liljegren and Bracco -- and additional picks is nonsense, and I'm pretty confident no team in the league would trade anything like that. The Rags aren't dealing Erik Karlsson here.



Sure age 19 seasons 5v5: Duclair = 1.91points/60 . Nylander= 1.72 points/60. We can tackle this a lot of angles.

If they were dealing for Karlsson, it'd start with Nylander or Marner AND Liljegren. because it's not Karlsson, it starts with Liljegren and Bracco. That's the difference.
Feb. 15, 2018 at 2:54 p.m.
#9
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I think you guys are arguing semantics. Whats more important is the market. What is the market for a guy like McDonagh and how many teams have the right assets and space/need for a top pairing?

If there is really only one team that fits the bill, NYR probably wont get as much as they'd want. If there is 5 teams all with a glaring need for McD, the price will be driven up and you could see a return higher than expected.
 
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