Forums/Armchair-GM

MTL, CBJ, BUF, CAR--Caps retool in summer

Created by: Eli
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 31, 2018
Published: Mar. 31, 2018
Team: 2018-19 Washington Capitals
Team Explanation
Sell high on guys with two years or so left on their contracts, sign and trade on Carlson, trade Orpik's star salary and average play for a star salary on an AHLer. I think this ends up looking like Vegas; all four lines can skate and move the puck up ice. All three defensive pairs have at least one puck carrier, maybe two. You'd think it would run into trouble killing penalties, but Vegas seem to get by, so maybe it can be done?
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Bowey, Madison4$901,001
Smith-Pelly, Devante3$801,002
Wilson, Tom5$3,001,002
Grubauer, Philipp5$3,001,002
Lindholm, Elias6$4,555,444
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Carlson, John8$8,001,001
Green, Mike3$6,001,002
Sharp, Patrick1$1,001,002
Schenn, Luke3$1,501,002
Trades
1.
WSH
  1. Wennberg, Alexander
  2. 2019 1st round pick (CBJ)
CBJ
  1. Carlson, John
Additional Details:
Carlson signs first, getting his pie in the sky asking price by giving up on having an NTC. And the Caps shrug, and move on.
2.
WSH
  1. Galchenyuk, Alex
  2. 2020 2nd round pick (MTL)
Additional Details:
2018 1st round pick (MTL), (assuming they don't win the lottery)
MTL
  1. Bäckström, Nicklas
  2. Siegenthaler, Jonas
  3. Stephenson, Chandler
  4. 2019 3rd round pick (WSH)
  5. 2021 4th round pick (WSH)
3.
WSH
  1. Moulson, Matt ($2,001,001 retained)
Additional Details:
Moulson had 14 goals last year, most on the power play. He's been a healthy scratch in all but nine games this year, averages ten minutes, and has no points. He's the kind of winger the Caps would overpay for at the deadline, if he had a few power play goals just before it,so why not underpay, get him early, and let him get into a rhythm as a power play specialist who stands in front of the net and chips in rebounds, like Oshie, but on a second unit, so Oshie doesn't get tired or injured. At the same time, he's currently a 5M AHLer. He might not make the Caps out of training camp. Buffalo are retaining some salary or this doesn't happen.
BUF
  1. Orpik, Brooks
  2. 2020 7th round pick (WSH)
Additional Details:
Orpik still plays 18 minutes a night, but if they trade for Haydn Fleury, they're going to play him and let him keep developing, so Orpik's a spare part, with on year left. Buffalo needs defense and leadership. Washington loses on player value, here, big time, but trades a slow defender for a slow forward, and, provided they've replaced the defenseman, they're alright. Still, Washington throws in a late pick as a thank you for Buffalo including some cap relief here.
4.
WSH
  1. Fleury, Haydn
Additional Details:
2018 1st round pick (CAR)
Lindholm, Elias (RFA)
CAR
  1. Holtby, Braden
  2. Connolly, Brett
Additional Details:
Liam O'Brien (RFA)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2019
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the CBJ
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
2020
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
2021
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$80,000,000$77,109,084$82,500$1,450,000$2,890,916

Roster

Left WingCenterRight Wing
Ovechkin, Alex
$9,538,462
LW
NTC
UFA - 3
Eller, Lars
$3,500,000
C
UFA - 5
Wilson, Tom
$3,001,002
RW
UFA - 6
Burakovsky, André
$3,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Kuznetsov, Evgeny
$7,800,000
C
UFA - 7
Oshie, T.J.
$5,750,000
RW
NTC
UFA - 7
Vrána, Jakub
$863,333
LW
UFA - 1
Lindholm, Elias
$4,555,444
C, RW
UFA - 6
Smith-Pelly, Devante
$801,002
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Moulson, Matt
$2,998,999
LW
NTC
UFA - 1
Wennberg, Alexander
$4,900,000
C
UFA - 5
Galchenyuk, Alex
$4,900,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 2
Sharp, Patrick
$1,001,002
LW, C
UFA
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Djoos, Christian
$650,000
LD
UFA - 1
Niskanen, Matt
$5,750,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 3
Grubauer, Philipp
$3,001,002
G
UFA - 3
Orlov, Dmitry
$5,100,000
LD/RD
UFA - 5
Bowey, Madison
$901,001
RD
UFA - 2
Copley, Pheonix
$650,000
G
UFA - 1
Fleury, Haydn
$863,333
LD/RD
RFA - 1
Green, Mike
$6,001,002
RD
NTC
UFA - 2
Schenn, Luke
$1,501,002
RD
UFA - 1

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Kuznetsov, E.
Oshie, T.
Lindholm, E.
Ovechkin, A.
Green, M.
Power Play 2
Wennberg, A.
Moulson, M.
Galchenyuk, A.
Orlov, D.
Bowey, M.
Penalty Kill 1
Eller, L.
Burakovsky, A.
Djoos, C.
Niskanen, M.
Penalty Kill 2
Vrána, J.
Wilson, T.
Orlov, D.
Niskanen, M.

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Mar. 31, 2018 at 1:00 p.m.
#1
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Why are you giving Nicklas Backstrom for Alex Galchenyuk, undervaluing Braden Holtby even if he is having a subpar season and Eller as the first line centre ahead of Kuznetsov as well as Smith- Pelly ahead of Gaalchenyuk.
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Mar. 31, 2018 at 1:50 p.m.
#2
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You won't get that much for a sign and trade for Carlson. A 2nd at best, maybe a late 1st.
Mar. 31, 2018 at 1:57 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: Habsfan27
Why are you giving Nicklas Backstrom for Alex Galchenyuk, undervaluing Braden Holtby even if he is having a subpar season and Eller as the first line centre ahead of Kuznetsov as well as Smith- Pelly ahead of Gaalchenyuk.


Good questions. Salary cap management, lineup balance, and rules of thumb about line chemistry. I'm trading Backstrom for a 5th overall pick (CCG's idea). Galchenyuk doesn't even make up the difference in value, but yesterday when I threw in Juulsen and Lehkonnen, I was told it was too much, and that MTL needs a center, but also needs a lot of young, NHL-ready players, so I threw in a couple prospects and later picks going back their way, and decided Hershey is fine without Juulsen. Each is a UFA after two years, but Backstrom was top ten in voting for the Hart and Selke last year, and if he decides to test the market, he will have Tavares as a comparable. Montreal has cap space to extend him in a year, and he's not a selfish guy. I'm sure he'll take less than 9M. The Caps might not have that to give him, without making other moves, so they get it out of the way early and get a good prospect and an offensively gifted, defensively weak winger.

Eller is getting to be a decent playmaker, and a solid two way center, and just signed a five year extension. Whoever plays with Ovechkin gets a few extra points, so I was careful not to put Ovechkin on the ice with anyone I planned on re-signing during the rest of his current contract. Burakovsky and Kuznetsov have worked well together in the past. Lindholm-Vrana-Galchenyuk would lack experience and defensive awareness. DSP stabilizes them and gets them out of their own zone, and he wasn't bad in a middle six role in New Jersey... Wasn't good enough for them to finish out his contract, but wasn't awful. Moulson can add a bit of weak grit to the "fourth" line, which is really more of a 2nd line, anyway.

I think all of these lines get equal time, in all zones (although that third defensive pair gets 70% offensive zone starts), and this team wins a lot of games by about 6-3. I don't think they're any more of a contender than the Caps are this year, but I don't think they're any less of one, and they'd be a lot of fun to watch. Plus, with five first round picks in the next two years, including a couple high ones this summer, they'll have the best talent pool in the AHL by the time Ovechkin thinks about retiring, so they won't be forced to trade him away to start rebuilding.

I'm not convinced that Eller, Kuznetsov, or Lindholm can learn to pass to Ovechkin as well as Backstrom and Carlson do right now. So I kept Kuznetsov in his current spot on the power play and gave the other two a season to audiiton and learn half of Backstrom's role, each. Bowey was top ten in rookie scoring when he was sent to Hershey at the deadline. He needs to improve his defense, and he' s getting time to work on that, in the AHL now. On a long term deal, with good teachers, he can start to apprentice for a power play role, and in a year or two, replace Green on that top power play unit. When green retires, the Caps haven't had to renegotiate any more big contracts. Sharp has retired. Moulson has retired. Graovac, Barber, and Walker move up cheaply from Hershey. Burakovsky and Vrana get slight raises. That's about it. This team is built to last. If Ovechkin is still amazing at 36, they have cap space to give him a raise, or to sign some terrific complimentary players to work with him.

My first choice, if I ran the Caps, would be to trade for O'Reilly and Duchene, and have more center depth than the Penguins, and steal one cup from the middle of their dynasty. But the cost of those guys would break the Caps, long term, and they might still not win it all. So it would be smarter to get cheap, long-term, young, developing players all through the lineup, sell high on the guys who have done really well, get back a ton of great young prospects, and be there waiting to take over the East when the Pens get old and implode.

This year's draft is supposed to be pretty deep. Getting three or four guys in the first round, and still fielding a competitive team, would be pretty amazing.
Mar. 31, 2018 at 2:00 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: ClockReads2113
You won't get that much for a sign and trade for Carlson. A 2nd at best, maybe a late 1st.


No way. That's for a trade, then sign, if they couldn't afford his asking price. I'm talking about just sucking it up, signing the guy to the expensive, but within their ability price he's asking,, and then shopping him around just before the awards banquet where he most likely claims his first Norris trophy. I'm pretty sure some team will give a middle six forward and a top 20 pick to announce that they've just acquired the reigning Norris trophy winner on national television.
Mar. 31, 2018 at 2:29 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: Habsfan27
Why are you giving Nicklas Backstrom for Alex Galchenyuk, undervaluing Braden Holtby even if he is having a subpar season and Eller as the first line centre ahead of Kuznetsov as well as Smith- Pelly ahead of Gaalchenyuk.


So the short answer is: because the Caps could still make the playoffs after trading away three elite players for good young players and first round picks in a deep draft. After that I'm just trying to make four forward lines good enough to play against anybody, so that the coaches can focus on teaching strategy and positioning, rather than sweat about line matching or zone starts. I'm not totally happy with my penalty-killing depth, especially at right D, but if it adds up to five first round picks in two years, some of them pretty high up there, then it's worth getting a little weak on defense next year, and and being an exciting wild card team on the upswing, instead of trying to keep winning the division and totally running out of prospects.
Mar. 31, 2018 at 2:30 p.m.
#6
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That Backstrom trade is awful
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Mar. 31, 2018 at 2:57 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: CastingCouchGuy
That Backstrom trade is awful


Thanks. I started out asking for Lehkonen and Juulsen, and got shot down. So I moved to this one, and got no response:

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/642991

I know you keep trading him for three top prospects and a top ten pick, but I feel like a fifth overall pick and a 24 year old who, can't play center, but had one great year where he scored 30 goals on the wing? That might be a good enough total value. And no rebuilding team is giving up a future #1 center and a top pick to acquire a 30 year old center. It just wouldn't work for them. So to get a center back from an ailing team, you trade a goalie or a defenseman. Teams trade from their areas of strength to address weaknesses. This leaves Montreal with Gallagher, Pacioretty, and Drouin on the wings, so they don't miss Galchenyuk at all, but objectively, he's not chop liver. I've got him in a bottom six role here because Trotz will be annoyed at MacLellan for picking up a guy with a career -30, but I do expect him to eventually move up and get pretty good.
Mar. 31, 2018 at 3:13 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: CastingCouchGuy
That Backstrom trade is awful


How about this one? https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/643647
Mar. 31, 2018 at 3:26 p.m.
#9
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That one is okay
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Mar. 31, 2018 at 3:58 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: CastingCouchGuy
That one is okay


Juulsen is ahead of Williams, but the Caps throw in Siegenthaler to even it out. I'm not sure where Lehkonen fits into the above lineup, though. He's not as good as Moulson or Sharp at playing diamond. He's not a significant upgrade over Vrana or Burakovsky, who each already know the Caps' system. So on the above team, I gave MTL a good deal, and wound up with a top five pick. I could do that beause I felt like Lindholm and Wennberg collectively replaced Backstrom's offense, and I'm optimistic that Eller will continue to improve his defensive play and faceoffs--the above team is weak on faceoffs, but that's coachable. It's a skill they can practice. Just like defensive positioning is. You can't coach youth, so if the Caps can have enough collective depth at center to trade Backstrom or Kuznetsov for a 23 year old future elite goal scorer/reclamation project, and a 5th overall pick, then I doubt they nickel and dime the other team too much about it.
Apr. 1, 2018 at 12:06 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: Eli
No way. That's for a trade, then sign, if they couldn't afford his asking price. I'm talking about just sucking it up, signing the guy to the expensive, but within their ability price he's asking,, and then shopping him around just before the awards banquet where he most likely claims his first Norris trophy. I'm pretty sure some team will give a middle six forward and a top 20 pick to announce that they've just acquired the reigning Norris trophy winner on national television.


What you're proposing isn't a sign and trade. A sign and trade is you find a partner for Carlson, let's say NJD, and have NJD and Carlson hash out a 8 year deal (because a 8 year deal is the only reason a team would do a sign and trade), then sign Carlson to that deal then instantly trade him to NJD for a 2nd, maybe a late 1st. That's the price for signing him to an extra year that other teams can't.

What you're actually proposing is signing Carlson to a 8 year deal without him knowing you will just try to trade him away, then trade him to whoever. That would be incredibly stupid. No UFA would sign with BMac ever again knowing he could just turn around and trade them. That will never happen.
Apr. 1, 2018 at 1:16 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: ClockReads2113
What you're proposing isn't a sign and trade. A sign and trade is you find a partner for Carlson, let's say NJD, and have NJD and Carlson hash out a 8 year deal (because a 8 year deal is the only reason a team would do a sign and trade), then sign Carlson to that deal then instantly trade him to NJD for a 2nd, maybe a late 1st. That's the price for signing him to an extra year that other teams can't.

What you're actually proposing is signing Carlson to a 8 year deal without him knowing you will just try to trade him away, then trade him to whoever. That would be incredibly stupid. No UFA would sign with BMac ever again knowing he could just turn around and trade them. That will never happen.


That's an interesting perspective.

What do you make of MacLellan telling the press that Carlson probably wants to see if he can get 8M somewhere else, when the Caps could reasonably have 8M in cap space and Carlson is outscoring all of the 8M defensemen?

Is it possible to make a new kind of "sign and trade," where the Caps agree that their star defenseman is actually worth a ton of money, but sign him to a deal after having already publicized that he won't be playing for 8M in Washington? Since Carlson and the league have had months to process MacLellan's snarky announcement that Carlson won't play in Washington for 8M, are you sure other people would get their feelings hurt if he keeps his word by shopping around for the best trade value, after rewarding his playier with the contract he's earned?
Apr. 1, 2018 at 5:31 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: Eli
That's an interesting perspective.

What do you make of MacLellan telling the press that Carlson probably wants to see if he can get 8M somewhere else, when the Caps could reasonably have 8M in cap space and Carlson is outscoring all of the 8M defensemen?

Is it possible to make a new kind of "sign and trade," where the Caps agree that their star defenseman is actually worth a ton of money, but sign him to a deal after having already publicized that he won't be playing for 8M in Washington? Since Carlson and the league have had months to process MacLellan's snarky announcement that Carlson won't play in Washington for 8M, are you sure other people would get their feelings hurt if he keeps his word by shopping around for the best trade value, after rewarding his playier with the contract he's earned?


I think the best way to make it work is Carlson comes out and says he loves Washington and if he can't make it work here he'd love to help them out by getting full value in a trade for him. I just never seen that happen.
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Apr. 1, 2018 at 6:09 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: ClockReads2113
I think the best way to make it work is Carlson comes out and says he loves Washington and if he can't make it work here he'd love to help them out by getting full value in a trade for him. I just never seen that happen.

.
That would be pretty awesome.

I think what's in it for him is an extra year on his contract, and possibly a higher aav.

Then the Caps just have to drag out negotiations with their RFAs until he's traded and they're under the cap. Or they can trade their RFAs, keep Carlson, and throw a party. Either way.
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Apr. 1, 2018 at 9:03 p.m.
#15
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Given that the Jackets have no center depth to spare yet already have arguably the deepest defense in the Metro - and given that any contract that size is going to threaten our ability to retain Panarin/Bobrovsky/Werenski - why would we do that Carlson trade, again? We'd have a team deficient at center again for all of a year, and then our core goes to hell immediately afterward.
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Apr. 2, 2018 at 12:11 a.m.
#16
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Quoting: ClockReads2113
What you're proposing isn't a sign and trade. A sign and trade is you find a partner for Carlson, let's say NJD, and have NJD and Carlson hash out a 8 year deal (because a 8 year deal is the only reason a team would do a sign and trade), then sign Carlson to that deal then instantly trade him to NJD for a 2nd, maybe a late 1st. That's the price for signing him to an extra year that other teams can't.

What you're actually proposing is signing Carlson to a 8 year deal without him knowing you will just try to trade him away, then trade him to whoever. That would be incredibly stupid. No UFA would sign with BMac ever again knowing he could just turn around and trade them. That will never happen.


Is that like how Price refused to sign with Montreal because they traded Subban right after he signed his extension, but before they had to pay a dime of it?
 
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