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John Tavares Sweepstakes

Where is he going?
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Jun 28, 2018 at 1:00
#26
Black Lives Matter
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Quoting: OpaqueZoo
That's not true.

Yes, Tavares, Matthews, Marner & Nylander take up a significant chunk of the cap. But Dubas knows that if you have the chance to get a superstar like Tavares, you do it and you figure out the rest later by singing bargains, clearing out deals like Zaitsev, Marleau and Martin, and drafting properly.


Okay, you might be right, but who's going to take Marleau's contract? Why would you trade Zaitsev when your defence isn't great?
Jun 28, 2018 at 2:09
#27
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Okay, you might be right, but who's going to take Marleau's contract? Why would you trade Zaitsev when your defence isn't great?


you dont even need to move significant contracts. The only one the leafs would move is Martin. Marleau's would be up the next year and Z is very good and woulndt even touch him. @rangersandislesfan i will make a leafs armchair to demonstrate how it all works. Its very simple. Just a matter of trusting the process and not overthinking
Jun 28, 2018 at 2:45
#28
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Okay, you might be right, but who's going to take Marleau's contract? Why would you trade Zaitsev when your defence isn't great?


Marleau doesn’t have to be moved. They’ll have both Marleau and Horton expiring at the same time, which is almost a combined $12M. That’s going to give them a ton of relief and enough room for their core.
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Jun 28, 2018 at 3:58
#29
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Quoting: krakowitz
Marleau doesn’t have to be moved. They’ll have both Marleau and Horton expiring at the same time, which is almost a combined $12M. That’s going to give them a ton of relief and enough room for their core.


The tougher part is the year in-between, where Mathews, Marner, and Nylander all are making 7+. Moving Marleau isn't necessarily required, but it likely means other salary/players are on their way out, or you're getting quite the hometown discount from those three.

Here's where I think Tavares stands in the thinking process.
- I can win a Cup with at least five of the six franchises, and potentially the sixth (NYI)
- I will make loads of money wherever I go, so while the tax issues are nice, there are ways around it

BUT there are three key questions we don't know the answer to:
1) Does Tavares want to be "the guy"? If he does, then NYI and Toronto become the top destinations. If not, the other four become much more appealing.
2) Is Tavares willing to sign a short term deal? If he does, this favors Tampa, Toronto, Boston, and Dallas. If not, then it favors the Islanders and the Sharks.
3) Does Tavares want to be in a location where hockey is towards the top of the food chain? If he does, then Toronto and Boston make sense. Otherwise, San Jose, NYI, Tampa, and Dallas work.

1Y, 2Y, 3Y -> Toronto
1N, 2Y, 3Y -> Boston
1Y, 2N, 3N -> New York Islanders
1N, 2Y, 3N -> Dallas and Tampa
1N, 2N, 3N -> San Jose

I've gotten the indication that the answer to each of those questions is "No". Therefore, San Jose is the team I would expect him to go to.
Jun 28, 2018 at 4:48
#30
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Quoting: tadhockey
The tougher part is the year in-between, where Mathews, Marner, and Nylander all are making 7+. Moving Marleau isn't necessarily required, but it likely means other salary/players are on their way out, or you're getting quite the hometown discount from those three.

Here's where I think Tavares stands in the thinking process.
- I can win a Cup with at least five of the six franchises, and potentially the sixth (NYI)
- I will make loads of money wherever I go, so while the tax issues are nice, there are ways around it

BUT there are three key questions we don't know the answer to:
1) Does Tavares want to be "the guy"? If he does, then NYI and Toronto become the top destinations. If not, the other four become much more appealing.
2) Is Tavares willing to sign a short term deal? If he does, this favors Tampa, Toronto, Boston, and Dallas. If not, then it favors the Islanders and the Sharks.
3) Does Tavares want to be in a location where hockey is towards the top of the food chain? If he does, then Toronto and Boston make sense. Otherwise, San Jose, NYI, Tampa, and Dallas work.

1Y, 2Y, 3Y -> Toronto
1N, 2Y, 3Y -> Boston
1Y, 2N, 3N -> New York Islanders
1N, 2Y, 3N -> Dallas and Tampa
1N, 2N, 3N -> San Jose

I've gotten the indication that the answer to each of those questions is "No". Therefore, San Jose is the team I would expect him to go to.


I think you are forgetting one major question:
Which team will i have the most long term success in? I think above all, he is going to go to a team where he feels he will play the best. For the first 2-3 years that would be SJ. But remember, Burns is getting old by then, Pavelski will be gone, Thornton is out. Then he is in a way back to square 1 being " The guy" because the talent pool after that drops prett drasitically other than couture. in TML he would have a solid 6-8 years of long term success where the fame is more spread out throughout the team between him matthews and marner. I don't think he would be the #1 guy in TML as i think Matthews will be right wtih him. The market is heavier in tml then SJ but the spotlight will be allmsot as bad in SJ once the team starts to get younger
Jun 28, 2018 at 6:30
#31
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Horton's LTIR isn't a factor in 2019/20, but certainly Marleau's 6.25m is a Leafs in 2019/20.
My thoughts is that Tavares wants to stay on the East Coast, which gives the Leafs and Isles some advantage. I don't think Tavares worries at all about sharing the glory/hard minutes with other players. We've seen how successful the Isles have been with just Tavares as a star and not much too much star power throughout the line up.
And while Toronto is heavy with professional media, they aren't unfair and I think they are rather soft. And social media....easy to ignore. Don't think the media bothers the Leafs at all. Remember it the incompetent GM Brian Burke who blamed the media and fans for his failure as person and Leaf executive. That's where this false impression of Toronto being a hard place to play. Came from a failing employee who to this day, still blames the media and fans for his total lack of effectiveness as Leafs GM/President.
Lets imagine the Leafs signs with the Leafs, the Leafs might have go trade a player like Nylander either this year or certainly but next. No big deal, you have to look at the signing as Tavares like a trade.
Tavares and whatever the Leafs get in return by trading Nylander, for Nylander. Leafs make that deal. IMO, Tavares stays an Islander.
Jun 28, 2018 at 8:48
#32
Misanthropic Thunder
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My top three guesses are NY Islanders, #2 NJ Devils #3 Boston. crazy wildcard pick Pittsburgh.
Jun 28, 2018 at 10:17
#33
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Quoting: Rodzikhockey93
I think you are forgetting one major question:
Which team will i have the most long term success in? I think above all, he is going to go to a team where he feels he will play the best. For the first 2-3 years that would be SJ. But remember, Burns is getting old by then, Pavelski will be gone, Thornton is out. Then he is in a way back to square 1 being " The guy" because the talent pool after that drops prett drasitically other than couture. in TML he would have a solid 6-8 years of long term success where the fame is more spread out throughout the team between him matthews and marner. I don't think he would be the #1 guy in TML as i think Matthews will be right wtih him. The market is heavier in tml then SJ but the spotlight will be allmsot as bad in SJ once the team starts to get younger


If Tavares signs in Toronto, he might not end up being the #1 center, but, at worst, he's a 1B, and he's absolutely going to be seen from a media standpoint as the top guy.

I'm not sure Tavares is willing to sell on the Sharks as a long term contender either. Yes, their players are getting up there in age, but there's no reason to think they will dramatically fall off in skill. Furthermore, San Jose has proven to know how to build around a core, so even as that core ages out, they should do a pretty solid job of filling around them.

No question, the Leafs can provide the hometown angle, and I could be wrong in a fair number of my assumptions. But it isn't the kind of vibe I get from him.
Jun 28, 2018 at 11:31
#34
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Quoting: dubby
Who would be the 1st line center though? If they tade Nylander to keep Tavares that means either Matthews or Tavares is going to have to play 2nd line or on the wing.


Why does someone have to go the wing? Leafs centres would be Matthews, Tavares an Kadri. And please don't get caught into this silly talk about # 1 and 2 etc. Look at Leaf lineup last year. Who was the # 1 centre? But JVR had 35 goals and Marleau 27 goals NOT playing with Matthews. Best RWer, Marner...not playing with Matthews. And during PP, good chance two the three "top" centres will be on the ice.
I really think folks do themselves a disservice and limit their understanding of team when they use a meaningless numbering system. Same with Dmen. The so called top pairing plays more PP minute so they get more ice time and points. But your"worse" pair still play 14 minutes a game and most their minutes is at even strength. There is no way of "protecting "them. especially on the road. So your worse Dmen often called 5 and 6 better be NHL competent or else they are going to be scored on regularly.
Thanks for reading the rant.
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Jun 28, 2018 at 11:34
#35
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Quoting: Munsen88
My top three guesses are NY Islanders, #2 NJ Devils #3 Boston. crazy wildcard pick Pittsburgh.


He didn't meet with New Jersey or Pittsburgh.
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Jun 29, 2018 at 11:19
#36
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Quoting: DoctorBreakfast
He didn't meet with New Jersey or Pittsburgh.


Doesn't mean those can't happen. But it does mean it's unlikely. It would be unlikely that he goes to NJ anyway, as there's no reason to leave the Islanders just to play that close, in New Jersey, like i already said. And yeah, the Penguins really need a centre ... their top 2 aren't that great. unsure
Jun 29, 2018 at 11:22
#37
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The more I think about it, the more Tavares going to Toronto makes sense. The opportunity to play with Mitch Marner on that line would be nothing short of spectacular. Both of them would easily be over a point per game. Then Marleau can be slotted on the left and that’d be one of the most dominant lines in hockey.
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Jun 29, 2018 at 11:30
#38
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Quoting: krakowitz
The more I think about it, the more Tavares going to Toronto makes sense. The opportunity to play with Mitch Marner on that line would be nothing short of spectacular. Both of them would easily be over a point per game. Then Marleau can be slotted on the left and that’d be one of the most dominant lines in hockey.


Babcock right on wrong, likes a "heavier" player on each line. It still might be Hyman or Grundstrom (who I think is NHL good and ready) at LW. Still Leafs could throw three high scoring lines. If Zaitsev returns to 1st year form and Borgman, Dermot, Ozhignov....at least two are NHL good, on defenceLeafs could make a break through. Tampa/Boston/Leafs could be a battle getting out of the Atlantic.
Jun 29, 2018 at 11:41
#39
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Quoting: palhal
Babcock right on wrong, likes a "heavier" player on each line. It still might be Hyman or Grundstrom (who I think is NHL good and ready) at LW. Still Leafs could throw three high scoring lines. If Zaitsev returns to 1st year form and Borgman, Dermot, Ozhignov....at least two are NHL good, on defenceLeafs could make a break through. Tampa/Boston/Leafs could be a battle getting out of the Atlantic.


i agree: Babcock likes to spread the size around. I can see this happen
Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Johnsson - Tavares - Marner
Marleau - Kadri - Kapenen
4LW - Lindholm - Brown

Rielly - Zaitsev
Dermott - Hainsey
Gardiner - RHD from Farm system or signed
Jun 29, 2018 at 7:37
#40
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Doesn't mean those can't happen. But it does mean it's unlikely. It would be unlikely that he goes to NJ anyway, as there's no reason to leave the Islanders just to play that close, in New Jersey, like i already said. And yeah, the Penguins really need a centre ... their top 2 aren't that great. unsure


I picked NJ as the top (non NY option) based on 2 things, number one, The things i read about how well he'd fit in, and how NJ is close to being a legit contender, and two, I HATE the Devils. Dumb reason I know but it more often than not works out that way. Same reason I said Pitt.
Jun 29, 2018 at 8:13
#41
Black Lives Matter
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Quoting: Munsen88
I picked NJ as the top (non NY option) based on 2 things, number one, The things i read about how well he'd fit in, and how NJ is close to being a legit contender, and two, I HATE the Devils. Dumb reason I know but it more often than not works out that way. Same reason I said Pitt.


huff
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Jul 1, 2018 at 11:18
#42
Misanthropic Thunder
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I think it would be hilarious if he waited until Tuesday to sign.
Jul 1, 2018 at 11:33
#43
Justin_2t1
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I low-key think he may go to Dallas now...
Jul 1, 2018 at 1:02
#44
Misanthropic Thunder
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its Toronto....wow.
May 16, 2019 at 9:31
#45
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
He's not signing with the Leafs. Really, there's no way that would work.


YAYAYA Forsure Bro
You like girls
May 16, 2019 at 3:16
#46
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Quoting: Rodzikhockey93
YAYAYA Forsure Bro
You like girls


Watch and you'll see how it really doesn't work with their cap this summer. Hard decisions for Dubas to make.
May 16, 2019 at 4:59
#47
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Watch and you'll see how it really doesn't work with their cap this summer. Hard decisions for Dubas to make.


They'll make it work. They've gotta move Kadri and probably lose one of Kapanen/Johnsson and get some cheap depth. Maybe find some vets (leadership, locker room, hussle kind of guys) that will sign on the cheap for a chance at a cup run.

It'll get done. Whether or not it works out; we won't know until next year.
May 16, 2019 at 9:29
#48
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Watch and you'll see how it really doesn't work with their cap this summer. Hard decisions for Dubas to make.


are you an I****??? Bringing Tavares was the best decision the leafs made
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May 16, 2019 at 9:44
#49
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Quoting: Rodzikhockey93
are you an I****??? Bringing Tavares was the best decision the leafs made


Here's what I wrote in May 2018..... We were talking about cap space, and that was before the unexpected high contracts of Marner,Matthews, Nylander, Kapanen and Johnsson.

Lets imagine the Leafs signs with the Leafs, the Leafs might have go trade a player like Nylander either this year or certainly next. No big deal, you have to look at the signing as Tavares like a trade.
Tavares and whatever the Leafs get in return by trading Nylander, for Nylander. Leafs make that deal. IMO, Tavares stays an Islander.
May 17, 2019 at 4:53
#50
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Quoting: Rodzikhockey93
are you an I****??? Bringing Tavares was the best decision the leafs made


Absolutely! The problem I see now is that Babcock apparently likes Kadri a lot as his #3 Center, and he's pretty affordable compared to Nylander and Marleau as 3rd line Wingers. They'll probably lose Kapanen just b/c he'll be more expensive than Johnsson as RFA's. I've maintained since the get that the Marleau signing was short-sighted, but that's not on Dubas...but it's his problem now. Dubas will never get full value for Nylander if he trades him this summer, so he's probably not going anywhere anytime soon, in my opinion.

They could trade Marleau and lose a couple picks in the process, or deal Nylander for 50 cents on the $1...And that's Canadian Dollars HAHA! Sign and trade Kapanen, and lock up Johnsson on a 4 year deal. Offer Marner $9.5 and hope he agrees. If so, the rest could work itself out fairly well. The biggest issues will be finding some cheap depth in their bottom six. They need guys like STL has to round out their explosive offense. TOR is still gonna be an elite team on paper next season. It'll be up to Babcock, who's already on the hot seat, to bring it all together.
 
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