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Trading Down at the Draft

Created by: CD282
Team: 2018-19 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Jun. 14, 2018
Published: Jun. 14, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Here's the scenario with the PHI trade: somebody the Flyers LOVE drops to #10 (Boqvist? Bouchard?), so they offer #14 + #19 for the #10 pick. The Oilers agree. But is it a fair, realistic deal? Let's look at this historically, based loosely on the numbers above (10, 14, 19), in the event that someone falls to 10. (Because the scenario is based on someone falling, we’re looking at one of pick 9, 10 or 11 for 14+19). It’s best-case scenario, but then at the draft everyone is thinking “their guy” is the next coming, otherwise they wouldn’t trade up, right? Philadelphia is the Trade UP team.

2015: Rantanen for DeBrusk + Svechnikov (early, so far it’s a win for the Trade UP team)
2014: Ehlers for Honka + DeAngelo (win for the Trade UP team)
2013: Horvat for Wennberg + Rychel (about equal value)
2012: Trouba for Girgensens + Vasilevskiy (hard to say, AV had 15th best GAA among starters (out of 31, so average), I think Trouba is worth more so I'm calling this one a win for the Trade UP team)
2011: Hamilton for Oleksiak + Klefbom (win for the Trade UP team)
2010: Granlund for Schwartz + Bjugstad (loss for the Trade UP team)
2009: Paajarvi for Kulikov + Kreider (loss for the Trade UP team)
2008: Bailey for Boychuk + Sbisa (win for the Trade UP team)
2007: Couture for Shattenkirk + MacMillan (win for the Trade UP team)
2006: Frolik for Grabner + Mitera (win for the Trade UP team)
2005: Kopitar for Pokulok + Kindl (win for the Trade UP team)

So based on historical results, Philadelphia has an 73% chance of winning this trade outright, 9% chance of coming out even and a 18% chance of coming out behind Edmonton in the deal. It's worth noting that even in the examples where the Trade UP team lost they still got an NHL player out of the deal - plenty of the #19 picks didn't even make it to the big show. I think this is a pretty fair deal.

For my draft selections, I'm going by http://www.mynhldraft.com/2018-nhl-draft/mock-draft/ - picks within the range are fair game.

14: Vitali Kravtsov, RW
19: K'Andre Miller, LD
40: Calen Addison, RD
71: Jonathan Gruden, LW

The Vancouver trade: two "bad" contracts but Lucic is the better player and also brings physicality and leadership that Eriksson does not. This trade happens after July 1st, when Lucic's bonus gets paid out, so the actual cost to Vancouver over the remainder of the contract is $4.5M AAV even though the cap hit is $6M.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$1,500,000
3$3,300,000
3$2,750,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Kravtsov, Vitali
3$925,000
Miller, K'Andre
3$925,000
Addison, Calen
3$875,000
Gruden, Jonathan
3$850,000
1$2,750,000
3$950,000
Trades
1.
EDM
  1. 2018 1st round pick (PHI)
  2. 2018 1st round pick (STL)
PHI
  1. 2018 1st round pick (EDM)
2.
EDM
  1. Eriksson, Loui
  2. 2018 2nd round pick (VAN)
3.
Buyouts
Buried
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2018
Logo of the PHI
Logo of the STL
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
2019
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the NYI
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
2020
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$80,000,000$76,742,832$0$2,570,000$3,257,168
Left WingCentreRight Wing
$6,000,000$6,000,000
LW, C
UFA - 3
$12,500,000$12,500,000
C
UFA - 8
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
RW
UFA - 1
$746,667$746,667 (Performance Bonus$70,000$70K)
LW, RW
UFA - 2
$8,500,000$8,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 7
$2,750,000$2,750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
$6,000,000$6,000,000
LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 4
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
$675,000$675,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
$650,000$650,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$650,000$650,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
$2,750,000$2,750,000
RW, C
UFA - 2
$800,000$800,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$950,000$950,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
$4,167,000$4,167,000
LD
UFA - 5
$4,166,666$4,166,666
RD
UFA - 3
$4,166,666$4,166,666
G
M-NTC
UFA - 1
$3,300,000$3,300,000
LD
UFA - 2
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RD
UFA - 2
$2,500,000$2,500,000
G
NMC
UFA - 1
$5,500,000$5,500,000
LD/RD
NMC
UFA - 3
$4,000,000$4,000,000
LD/RD
NMC
UFA - 3
$675,000$675,000
LD
UFA - 2

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Jun. 14, 2018 at 8:19 p.m.
#1
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Joined: Apr. 2018
Posts: 5,820
Likes: 1,402
Eh, I'd pass as Philly unless Dobson is available.
Jun. 14, 2018 at 8:25 p.m.
#2
Eichel Tower
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Joined: Apr. 2017
Posts: 4,716
Likes: 2,441
Five stars for the detail you gave on the trade up scenario, I loved it.
I read articles that dealt with the rounds after the 1st. In that scenario, more picks were better because the odds of getting an NHL player in the third round is pretty much the same whether it is the 64th pick or the 93rd pick.But you took the time to prove that one does not want to trade away a first for 2 firsts. Thank you very much very educational.
CD282 liked this.
Jun. 14, 2018 at 8:27 p.m.
#3
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Joined: Jun. 2018
Posts: 32
Likes: 2
Philly wouldnt do that. Way overpay for moving picks. Swapping firsts would get the oil maybe a third if they were lucky. Like the vanek idea TBH. I dont see strome less than 3-3.5 to sadly. Chia just lost to many trades and i think he is needing a right shot D so bad Kleftboms out for it.
Jun. 14, 2018 at 8:39 p.m.
#4
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Joined: May 2017
Posts: 292
Likes: 37
Quoting: Gofnut999
Canes laugh, Flyers pass


its like u didn't even read what the guy wrote...although I disagree with the move of trading two first just to move up four spots, i at least respect the work this guy put in.
CD282 and toddbertuzzi44 liked this.
Jun. 14, 2018 at 8:47 p.m.
#5
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Joined: Jan. 2017
Posts: 20,126
Likes: 8,985
Quoting: BetterBrianMaclellan
its like u didn't even read what the guy wrote...although I disagree with the move of trading two first just to move up four spots, i at least respect the work this guy put in.


I read it, applaud the effort. Doesn’t change anything tho
Jun. 14, 2018 at 9:36 p.m.
#6
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Joined: Apr. 2017
Posts: 19,411
Likes: 9,965
Wow, very well thought out; kudos for that.
CD282 liked this.
 
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