SalarySwishSalarySwish
Forums/Armchair-GM

brainstorm, but probably nothing good here.

Created by: Eli
Team: 2018-19 Washington Capitals
Initial Creation Date: Jun. 14, 2018
Published: Jun. 14, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
What if the Caps assume their own UFAs, coming off a Cup win, are all overpriced right now. Can they build a team half as good, without Carlson?
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$3,001,002
6$2,001,002
5$1,451,451
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$3,001,002
1$3,001,002
2$4,001,002
2$2,001,002
Trades
1.
WSH
  1. Vecchione, Michael
  2. 2020 4th round pick (PHI)
Additional Details:
Hagg, Robert (RFA)
2.
WSH
  1. 2020 2nd round pick (EDM)
EDM
    Bowey, Madison (RFA)
    3.
    WSH
    1. 2020 5th round pick (CHI)
    CHI
      UFA signing rights to Kempny
      4.
      WSH
      1. 2019 7th round pick (MTL)
      MTL
        UFA signing rights to Jerabek
        5.
        WSH
          early rights to sign UFA Mike Green so the Caps can trade....
          DET
          1. 2018 4th round pick (WSH)
          6.
          WSH
          1. 2018 2nd round pick (VAN)
          2. 2019 2nd round pick (VAN)
          3. 2020 2nd round pick (VAN)
          Additional Details:
          The 2018 is conditional on him signing. The '19 pick is for Washington giving up the chance to sign him and the '20 is for giving up the chance to trade him.
          VAN
            UFA rights to John Carlson, the greatest UFA since sliced bread.
            7.
            WSH
            1. 2018 2nd round pick (CAR)
            2. 2020 2nd round pick (CAR)
            CAR
              Grubauer, Philipp (RFA)
              8.
              WSH
              1. 2019 3rd round pick (DAL)
              DAL
                UFA rights to Jay Beagle
                DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
                2018
                Logo of the WSH
                Logo of the FLA
                Logo of the VAN
                Logo of the CAR
                Logo of the WSH
                Logo of the WSH
                Logo of the WSH
                2019
                Logo of the WSH
                Logo of the WSH
                Logo of the VAN
                Logo of the WSH
                Logo of the DAL
                Logo of the WSH
                Logo of the WSH
                Logo of the WSH
                Logo of the MTL
                2020
                Logo of the WSH
                Logo of the WSH
                Logo of the EDM
                Logo of the VAN
                Logo of the CAR
                Logo of the WSH
                Logo of the WSH
                Logo of the PHI
                Logo of the WSH
                Logo of the CHI
                Logo of the WSH
                Logo of the WSH
                ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
                23$80,000,000$66,581,758$82,500$1,100,000$13,418,242
                Left WingCentreRight Wing
                $9,538,462$9,538,462
                LW
                M-NTC
                UFA - 3
                $3,900,000$3,900,000
                C
                UFA - 7
                $3,001,002$3,001,002
                RW
                UFA - 6
                $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$600,000$600K)
                LW
                UFA - 1
                $6,700,000$6,700,000
                C
                M-NTC
                UFA - 2
                $3,001,002$3,001,002
                LW, RW
                UFA - 3
                $1,500,000$1,500,000
                RW, LW
                UFA - 1
                $2,415,000$2,415,000
                C
                UFA - 5
                $5,750,000$5,750,000
                RW
                M-NTC
                UFA - 7
                $2,001,002$2,001,002
                RW, LW, C
                UFA - 4
                $3,001,002$3,001,002
                C, LW
                UFA - 1
                $650,000$650,000
                LW
                UFA - 1
                $650,000$650,000
                C, LW
                UFA - 1
                $1,451,451$1,451,451
                RW, LW
                UFA - 1
                Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
                $1,275,000$1,275,000
                LD
                UFA - 5
                $4,001,002$4,001,002
                RD
                UFA - 2
                $6,100,000$6,100,000
                G
                M-NTC
                UFA - 2
                $2,001,002$2,001,002
                LD
                UFA - 2
                $5,750,000$5,750,000
                RD
                M-NTC
                UFA - 3
                $650,000$650,000
                G
                UFA - 1
                $1,000,000$1,000,000 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
                LD
                NTC
                UFA - 1
                $650,000$650,000
                LD
                UFA - 1
                $650,000$650,000
                LD
                UFA - 1

                Embed Code

                • To display this team on another website or blog, add this iFrame to the appropriate page
                • Customize the height attribute in the iFrame code below to fit your website appropriately. Minimum recommended: 400px.

                Text-Embed

                Click to Highlight
                Jun. 14, 2018 at 10:48 p.m.
                #1
                Avatar of the user
                Joined: May 2018
                Posts: 5
                Likes: 1
                Why would Vancouver trade for Carlson if they can just sign him in free agency?
                Jun. 14, 2018 at 10:48 p.m.
                #2
                Bandwagon fairweathe
                Avatar of the user
                Joined: Jun. 2018
                Posts: 7,862
                Likes: 3,373
                Madison Bowey is key to life after Carlson I believe and u can get him for half the price of green and that’s a lot of years for smith Pelly he may have found his team or may fall into bad habits I believe the later but not a large term so doable not too sure on the rest of the build atleast an a for creativity
                Eli liked this.
                Jun. 14, 2018 at 10:53 p.m.
                #3
                Thread Starter
                Who adds what?
                Avatar of the user
                Joined: Jul. 2017
                Posts: 13,677
                Likes: 2,703
                Quoting: Sens93
                Why would Vancouver trade for Carlson if they can just sign him in free agency?


                Well, for starters, there aren't exactly thirty-one of him, are there?

                I thought about trading him for MDZ and a couple prospects, but that gets too personal, and the point of those UFA rights trades wan't to be super-exact. It was that the Caps could get something out of accepting that keeping their guys would be really expensive.

                Why does it sometimes happen? I'm not an economist or a game theorist, but I googled it for you. Hope this helps! https://businessofhockey.wordpress.com/2016/06/22/trading-for-a-free-agents-negotiation-rights-is-worth-the-price/

                Brad Richards' UFA rights once went for a 2nd round pick. If you want to argue he was as good at the time as Carlson was this year, when he led all defensemen in points, playoff points, and Cups.... I'd love to hear it.
                Jun. 14, 2018 at 10:58 p.m.
                #4
                Sam
                Avatar of the user
                Joined: Jan. 2018
                Posts: 5,246
                Likes: 2,190
                I like that burakovsky deal a lot, but I don't think the trades for free agent rights make sense.
                Eli liked this.
                Jun. 14, 2018 at 11:01 p.m.
                #5
                hawksfan88
                Avatar of the user
                Joined: Mar. 2017
                Posts: 271
                Likes: 37
                Quoting: Eli
                Well, for starters, there aren't exactly thirty-one of him, are there?

                I thought about trading him for MDZ and a couple prospects, but that gets too personal, and the point of those UFA rights trades wan't to be super-exact. It was that the Caps could get something out of accepting that keeping their guys would be really expensive.

                Why does it sometimes happen? I'm not an economist or a game theorist, but I googled it for you. Hope this helps! https://businessofhockey.wordpress.com/2016/06/22/trading-for-a-free-agents-negotiation-rights-is-worth-the-price/

                Brad Richards' UFA rights once went for a 2nd round pick. If you want to argue he was as good at the time as Carlson was this year, when he led all defensemen in points, playoff points, and Cups.... I'd love to hear it.


                You're right that they should trade his rights, if they can't sign him, but no way anyone gives up three second rounders. Keith Yandle got a 4th and a 6th a few years ago when he was still considered pretty damn good. Of course Carlson could fetch more but I'd limit it to a single second rounder OR two third rounders MAX
                Jun. 14, 2018 at 11:04 p.m.
                #6
                Thread Starter
                Who adds what?
                Avatar of the user
                Joined: Jul. 2017
                Posts: 13,677
                Likes: 2,703
                Quoting: Birtle34
                Madison Bowey is key to life after Carlson I believe and u can get him for half the price of green and that’s a lot of years for smith Pelly he may have found his team or may fall into bad habits I believe the later but not a large term so doable not too sure on the rest of the build atleast an a for creativity


                Love it. yeah. Bowey had back to back 60 point seasons in junior and scored more even strength points per sixty minutes of ice time than Green.... but the more I quoted that statistic, I started wondering just how many minutes Green was playing to have so few points per, while being an all star. It's not as much as Carlson, but he's developing into a pretty solid puck moving minute munching #3 defenseman. And if he gets hurt, Niskanen's a fine power play point guy. Hagg had more hits this year than Carlson and Kempny put together, and I think Green is fine blocking some shots when asked to....

                I think overall I made the team weaker on defense and they should keep Carlson, and also I'm straining my own capacity for disbelief with Thronton at 3M. He's staying in SJ and continuing to get overpaid.
                Jun. 14, 2018 at 11:09 p.m.
                #7
                Thread Starter
                Who adds what?
                Avatar of the user
                Joined: Jul. 2017
                Posts: 13,677
                Likes: 2,703
                Edited Jun. 15, 2018 at 7:33 a.m.
                Quoting: hawksfan88
                You're right that they should trade his rights, if they can't sign him, but no way anyone gives up three second rounders. Keith Yandle got a 4th and a 6th a few years ago when he was still considered pretty damn good. Of course Carlson could fetch more but I'd limit it to a single second rounder OR two third rounders MAX


                29 teams outbid that offer, real quick. Especially with Green signed.

                Carlson led defensemen in points in the regular season and the playoffs. He was one of two of the top ten guys from the regular season to start most of his shifts behind the red line. The other was PK Subban, who will win the Norris Trophy for it.

                Yandle was 16th among defensemen in points that season: http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20152016&seasonTo=20152016&gameType=2&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,goals,assists
                In the postseason of 2016, right before that trade, he was 61st among defensemen, posting one point in five games. http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20152016&seasonTo=20152016&gameType=3&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,goals,assists

                Eric Staal was also considered to have little value after a disappointing playoff. These are not really comparables for the #1 offensive defenseman through the year and the playoffs on the Cup winner. Here are the playoff stats from this year. Please note that John Carlson recorded more than one point, and actually led defensemen in goals (tied with Byfuglien, sure), assists, points, power play goals (tied with Subban, okay, fine) and power play points.. http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&gameType=3&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,goals,assists

                Yeah. I think they're keeping Carlson, but in the theoretical discussion of what his rights would trade for, let's not kid ourselves that Keith Yandlein 2016 is relevant information.

                That was a situation where a team did not have a roster spot for a player, at any price, becuase he had burned their Cup hopes. If you don't look at defensemen, Carlson this playoff year was 10th in points, fourth in power play points, and tied for third in plus/minus. Yandle, once again, was reported not to have shown up.

                Honestly, I won't make the case that Carlson is a make or break player for any team looking for a defenseman. I think he's a good player who has built great chemistry over nearly a decade of power play opportunities with Ovechkin and Backstrom. This year, the third straight year that they were joined by Kuznetsov and Oshie on the top unit, they all did really well together.

                So I'm not going to suggest Stevens' five first round pick UFA compensation as a reasonable return, and I'm not going to suggest that some other team needs to build around John Carlson and nobody else. I'm just going to say that he's part of something that works really well in Washington and that they should keep that going.
                Jun. 14, 2018 at 11:09 p.m.
                #8
                Bandwagon fairweathe
                Avatar of the user
                Joined: Jun. 2018
                Posts: 7,862
                Likes: 3,373
                I’m thinking sj or retire for Thornton and I think wash needs to go all in for ovechkin u never know how long he’s got left in the tank I would take atleast 3 more shots without too much of a thought of future but in saying that for 8 million for Carlson u better have a few 800 thousand guys purring up major numbers bowey on a bridge nice team number I think would be good to offset Carlson contract I don’t mind green addition either for especially next 2 or 3 runs
                Eli liked this.
                Jun. 15, 2018 at 11:22 a.m.
                #9
                Avatar of the user
                Joined: Apr. 2018
                Posts: 5,351
                Likes: 1,536
                Quoting: Sens93
                Why would Vancouver trade for Carlson if they can just sign him in free agency?


                There is a general lack of understand on how free agency works and the value of players needing contracts, both UFA and RFA. At least these are RA rights, not sign and trades. If you see someone doing a sign and trade you know that they do not know real life management at all but play a lot of PlayStation GM mode.
                Jun. 15, 2018 at 11:42 a.m.
                #10
                Thread Starter
                Who adds what?
                Avatar of the user
                Joined: Jul. 2017
                Posts: 13,677
                Likes: 2,703
                Quoting: biglite351
                There is a general lack of understand on how free agency works and the value of players needing contracts, both UFA and RFA. At least these are RA rights, not sign and trades. If you see someone doing a sign and trade you know that they do not know real life management at all but play a lot of PlayStation GM mode.


                Last time I broke out my old copy of NHL2K7, that wasn't an option on playstation, but if you google it, you find real life hockey reporters suggesting that Carlson and Tavares are the best UFAs in years, and could get so many seven year offers that they decide to only take an eight year deal, necessitating that it be signed through teh Caps/Islanders, who can then trade them if the money is too much for their cap structure.

                After the regular season, I was all for such a move with Carlson. After he led the playoffs in points by a defenseman, too, I don't think it happens.

                Keith Yandle got a 4th and a 6th after a Spring when he was 16th among defensemen in regular season points and then had one playoff point. Carlson was 1st in regular season points by a defenseman, and followed it up with 20 in 24 playoff games. So maybe his UFA rights are worth thirty 4th round picks and thirty years of 6th round picks? But above I decided to give a disount for using 2nds instead of 4ths and 6ths. Honesty, that "playstation" insult is such a cliche to anyone who has read more than two comments sections on any article about a trade, that you should be ashamed of your writing.
                Jun. 15, 2018 at 12:53 p.m.
                #11
                Avatar of the user
                Joined: Apr. 2018
                Posts: 5,351
                Likes: 1,536
                Quoting: Eli
                ... and could get so many seven year offers that they decide to only take an eight year deal, necessitating that it be signed through teh Caps/Islanders, who can then trade them if the money is too much for their cap structure.


                That is 100% wrong, which is not surprising. The Caps/Islanders could move their UFA rights and the team getting they can sign them to 8 years.

                Why would Tavares sign with the Islanders knowing that he is going to go to team-x in a sign & trade... therefore costing his new team valuable assets and lessening the overall value of that team before even getting there? That is LITERALLY illogical. Not figuratively, literally. It would be a moronic move.

                I have said this to you dozens of times.

                Sign
                and
                trades
                don't
                happen.

                Real world just doesn't work that way.

                If the players leave... The Islanders are not going to get value for Tavares. The Caps are not going to get value for Carlson. That is why FAs get traded at the deadline, that is the last time that they have any real value. Once the deadline passes their trade value drops to like 20%-25% of what it was the day before. RFAs hold more value than UFAs, but even with RFAs it is no where near the value if they were signed.

                Why would Carolina give up two 2nds for Grubauer when he would cost one 2nd to sign? Short time ability to negotiate? Okay, that would be one 2nd (matching the compensation) and a 4th for the extra time.
                Why would Vancouver give up three 2nds for Carlson when UFAs get a week to talk to all UFAs and this is the time when Carlson will be able to cash in and will want to get offers from the most teams possible? Because Vancouver will throw so much money at him that he will say yes without testing the market? Then they can just wait, outbid everyone anyway, and save the 2nds. The negotiation week did a number on the UFA trade market.

                At least you haven't traded Orpik for three 1sts and McDavid yet.
                Jun. 15, 2018 at 1:51 p.m.
                #12
                Thread Starter
                Who adds what?
                Avatar of the user
                Joined: Jul. 2017
                Posts: 13,677
                Likes: 2,703
                Edited Jun. 15, 2018 at 1:56 p.m.
                Quoting: biglite351
                That is 100% wrong, which is not surprising.
                I have said this to you dozens of times..


                Whew. I thought I was the only one who noticed that dynamic. I'm a stay at home dad in Flyover country who has cheered for the Caps since they didn't all wear helmets. Feel free to keep trying to disprove some conspiracy theory that I'm Brian MacLellan. It is really flattering, actually. smile

                I get all my understanding of the CBA from conversations with my fellow know-nothings on this board. If you want to join us in our search for unerstanding and help us to predict and discuss this sport we cheer for as fans, please feel free to post links to useful information that can help us stop being idiots. Or if you think I'm looking smart enough to be a GM, hire me as an assistant to your assistant, you real deal NHL GM, you. Even with your attitude, it'd be a fun job.
                Jun. 16, 2018 at 7:05 p.m.
                #13
                Avatar of the user
                Joined: Apr. 2018
                Posts: 5,351
                Likes: 1,536
                Edited Jun. 16, 2018 at 7:13 p.m.
                Nothing that you just said counters you being 100% wrong with your statement. You quoted me, editing what I said so that it was very specific... rambled for 2 paragraphs... and didn't address what I said or what you edited it down to at all.

                Anyway...

                I get my understanding of the CBA from the CBA. Not rom someone that got it from someone who got it from someone that posted an opinion without looking it up. No, I did not read it start to finish, but when I wonder about something I look at the CBA.

                You post about getting "ransoms" for these UFAs and then the best value in the link that you provide as support for your three 2nds for Carlson is a single 3rd round pick and another UFA. How does that support these values that you throw out? (It doesnt, you actually undercut you own position)
                Jun. 16, 2018 at 8:40 p.m.
                #14
                Thread Starter
                Who adds what?
                Avatar of the user
                Joined: Jul. 2017
                Posts: 13,677
                Likes: 2,703
                Quoting: biglite351
                You post about getting "ransoms" for these UFAs and then the best value in the link that you provide as support for your three 2nds for Carlson is a single 3rd round pick and another UFA. How does that support these values that you throw out? (It doesnt, you actually undercut you own position)


                Do you mean this link? https://businessofhockey.wordpress.com/2016/06/22/trading-for-a-free-agents-negotiation-rights-is-worth-the-price/

                Are you suggesting that John Carlson's value right now, fresh off leading the NHL's defensemen in regular season points (68) and playoff points (20) and winning the Stanley Cup is equal to Dan Hamhuis' value in 2010 after getting less than half as many in the regular season (24) and exactly a tenth as many in a first round palyoff exit (2)? Because again, teams trying to win the playoffs are going to value Carlson based on his playoff points, so if Hamhuis' two playoff points in the spring of 2010 got his rights traded for a 3rd round pick, then Carlson's rights this year are worth about 10 3rd round picks. Obviously Hamhuis' offense that year was the disappointment that got him traded, and the 3rd was because he was still respected as a tough, stay-at-home defenseman. He had 79 hits and 89 blocks in 2010. Carlson had 47 and 148 (31st in the league in blocks, whether or not it's among only defensemen) this season, and added 36 and 42 in the playoffs (13th and 6th among defensemen).

                Honestly, there hasn't been any compensation (by trade or otherwise) for a free agent defenseman as good as Carlson since Stevens, which was before the current CBA, so there is no relevant comparable. I enjoy discussing the possibility of something new happening. You enjoy pointing out that it would be new. As long as we are both having fun, let's keep the conversation going!
                Jun. 16, 2018 at 9:09 p.m.
                #15
                Thread Starter
                Who adds what?
                Avatar of the user
                Joined: Jul. 2017
                Posts: 13,677
                Likes: 2,703
                Edited Jun. 16, 2018 at 9:35 p.m.
                The best analog for the trade I proposed a few months ago, and occasionally repost with different variations, of Carlson for Tavares is the one at the bottom of the chart. If you read closely, Florida and Calgary traded the rights to sign Jordan Leopold and Jay Bouwmeester.

                Bouwmeester had been in the minors more recently, but had also been in the Olympics more recently. The Flames and Panthers swapped third round picks to make up whatever they thought was the difference in value.

                Each signed with the club trading for them, but in three years the two tough defensemen would be teammates in St. Louis.
                Jun. 18, 2018 at 10:34 a.m.
                #16
                Avatar of the user
                Joined: Apr. 2018
                Posts: 5,351
                Likes: 1,536
                Your support for three 2nd rounders was a link that had a 3rd and another UFA as the best return. Best return. That link showed the best UFA rights trades. That was your link that you chose to support your position. How does a 3rd support three 2nds? It doesn't. Do you even realize what you write, or is it pure train of thought and you don't really pay attention to what is going down? I am drinking coffee at the moment and it's like me saying that this brand of coffee is the BEST available and posting a link that lists it as 123rd in a taste test as proof.

                Also, as to your "If you read closely" comment about the Bouwmeester trade. That is the 3rd and another UFA return that I said would be the best UFA rights return. Bouwmeester's UFA rights got a 3rd and another UFA.
                Jun. 18, 2018 at 10:57 a.m.
                #17
                Thread Starter
                Who adds what?
                Avatar of the user
                Joined: Jul. 2017
                Posts: 13,677
                Likes: 2,703
                Quoting: biglite351
                Your support for three 2nd rounders was a link that had a 3rd and another UFA as the best return. Best return. That link showed the best UFA rights trades. That was your link that you chose to support your position. How does a 3rd support three 2nds? It doesn't. Do you even realize what you write, or is it pure train of thought and you don't really pay attention to what is going down? I am drinking coffee at the moment and it's like me saying that this brand of coffee is the BEST available and posting a link that lists it as 123rd in a taste test as proof.

                Also, as to your "If you read closely" comment about the Bouwmeester trade. That is the 3rd and another UFA return that I said would be the best UFA rights return. Bouwmeester's UFA rights got a 3rd and another UFA.


                No. That was a link that came up when i typed the question someone asked above of "why would someone trade for UFA rights" into Google. I hadn't read it at the time, and I still don't see why they didn't just google it themselves.

                Your argument here presupposes that good UFAs have had their rights traded. That's false. Only disappointing ones coming off of dreadful seasons have had their rights traded. If you actually know anything about hockey and disagree, you'd be posting counterexamples, but I don't think they exist. The top of this market of disappointment was, again, Keith Yandle scoring 1 point in a playoff series the Rangers lost. They expected him to be their #1 defenseman and help them win the Stanley Cup. Fans were angry. Trading his rights was a way of showing fans the team was going in a different direction. Yandle is still a pretty good defenseman, but Carlson is coming off a career year where he led the league in points through both the regular season and the playoffs. You keep asking me to apply a past precedent to prove the value of an unprecedented situation.

                I no longer think the Caps should trade Carlson's rights, because he finally lived up to his potential in the playoffs. I think they should keep him. So I don't see what you're asking. Has any Vancouver fan shown up here to say they would turn up their nose at a #1 defenseman for three 2nd round picks? No? That's because if they can get him for that, it's a great deal!

                Do you even watch hockey, or just come here to troll me?
                Jun. 18, 2018 at 11:12 a.m.
                #18
                Avatar of the user
                Joined: Apr. 2018
                Posts: 5,351
                Likes: 1,536
                Quoting: Eli
                Do you even watch hockey, or just come here to troll me?


                Pointing out over the top, or even insane, things that someone says is not trolling. Maybe if people did it to you more often, you would say better things.

                Actually, I have seriously wondered if you WATCH hockey or just listen to it online/radio and look at stats. Your Orpik/Chelios comparison last week made me seriously question how much you actually watch (not follow, but literally watch)
                Jun. 18, 2018 at 11:16 a.m.
                #19
                Avatar of the user
                Joined: Apr. 2018
                Posts: 5,351
                Likes: 1,536
                Quoting: Eli
                Your argument here presupposes that good UFAs have had their rights traded. That's false.


                Yet you keep suggesting the trades. <-- NOTE

                Do you see where "Step 1" of the problem is? Take all of the time that you need.
                 
                Reply
                To create a post please Login or Register
                Question:
                Options:
                Add Option
                Submit Poll