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Rielly fooooorrrr

Created by: Goulet
Team: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Jun. 14, 2018
Published: Jun. 14, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
5$6,000,000
2$800,000
2$800,000
2$800,000
2$800,000
2$800,000
2$800,000
5$6,000,000
Trades
TOR
    Trouba
    Retained Salary Transactions
    DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
    2018
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    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the ANA
    2019
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the STL
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    2020
    Logo of the TOR
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    Logo of the TOR
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    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the SJS
    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    23$80,000,000$60,020,833$2,550,000$3,700,000$19,979,167
    Left WingCentreRight Wing
    $6,250,000$6,250,000
    LW, C
    NMC
    UFA - 2
    $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,850,000$3M)
    C
    UFA - 1
    $894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
    RW
    UFA - 1
    $800,000$800,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 1
    $6,000,000$6,000,000
    RW
    UFA - 6
    $863,333$863,333
    RW
    UFA - 1
    $925,000$925,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 1
    $4,500,000$4,500,000
    C
    M-NTC
    UFA - 4
    $2,100,000$2,100,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 2
    $2,250,000$2,250,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 3
    $800,000$800,000
    C, LW, RW
    RFA
    $2,500,000$2,500,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 2
    $800,000$800,000
    C
    UFA - 2
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    $4,050,000$4,050,000
    LD
    UFA - 1
    $6,000,000$6,000,000
    RD
    UFA - 1
    $5,000,000$5,000,000
    G
    M-NTC
    UFA - 3
    $863,333$863,333
    LD/RD
    UFA - 2
    $4,500,000$4,500,000
    RD
    UFA - 6
    $850,000$850,000
    G
    UFA - 1
    $3,000,000$3,000,000
    RD
    M-NTC
    UFA - 1
    $800,000$800,000
    RD
    UFA - 1
    $800,000$800,000
    LD
    UFA - 1
    $800,000$800,000
    RD
    UFA - 2
    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
    $5,300,000$5,300,000
    RW
    M-NTC, NMC
    UFA - 2

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    Jun. 14, 2018 at 11:21 p.m.
    #1
    I put math in hockey
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    Love the core premise from TOR's perspective, but I have a few concerns.
    1. Not sure how WPG feels about this one. I get the sense from folks like Garret Hohl and @WPGMurat on twitter that the Jets are pretty ok with their balance between LD and RD, as Morrisey/Myers develop. Might be better off hunting for a Reilly for Petry deal with MTL, since they have a more definitive balance issue.
    2. Running something along the line of Marleau-Kadri-Kapanen as a checking line might make more sense, as Babcock's style seems to demand a definitive matchup line, which this team doesn't really have. Marleau's also probably overkill alongside Matthews + Marner anyway.
    3. Probably makes more sense to carry 14 Fwds and keep Holl with the Marlies. Helps him develop and is more usual for an NHL team.

    That said, these are really minor things. I love the faith in Gardiner as LD and the decisive move to get a 1RD. I like the decision to keep cap space open in order to avoid having to break up the team when the ELCs end. No real holes on the roster and strength all the way around. Excellent work.
    Jun. 14, 2018 at 11:42 p.m.
    #2
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    id rather do gardiner for myers in my opinion. Throw in a pick or prospect in with gardiner to go to winnepeg
    Jun. 14, 2018 at 11:45 p.m.
    #3
    I put math in hockey
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    Quoting: beanie2911
    id rather do gardiner for myers in my opinion. Throw in a pick or prospect in with gardiner to go to winnepeg


    Gardiner's the Leafs best dman and a solid #1D, probably top 15 in the league. Him plus anything for Myers is a major overpay.
    Jun. 14, 2018 at 11:52 p.m.
    #4
    Math and Sports
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    Edited Jun. 14, 2018 at 11:58 p.m.
    Jets pass. Not that your value is off, because I love Reilly's game, but like Pie Lord said, it throws our balance off. One of Trouba's best attributes is his chemistry with Morrissey. We have ourselves a nice unflashy top pairing which can eat other teams' top 6 minutes like french bread. Trading Trouba would force Maurice's gameplan in how he deploys his pairing to completely change, and it would probably really diminish Morrissey's value to us.

    Jets also have arguably the defenseman in the AHL, Sami Niku, Logan Stanley, and Dylan Samberg coming down the prospect pipe on the left side. Reilly for Trouba is trading a position of need for a position of depth. Just would not work for the Jets.

    On that note, may I offer you one Tyler Myers? Myers for a 2nd+prospect or Myers for 25OA is kind of the price the Jets are looking for atm.

    If you are looking for high level defenseman that could be shopped, I would refer you to either Minnesota or St. Louis.
    Jun. 14, 2018 at 11:57 p.m.
    #5
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    Trouba is a good defensemen but is too injury prone.
    Jun. 15, 2018 at 12:03 a.m.
    #6
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    If the going rate on Myers is the 25OA, teams should be lining up to pay it. Breakeven Corsi on defensive usage with 36 points on low sh% and he's only 28? I'd easily pay a late first for that.
    Jun. 15, 2018 at 12:33 a.m.
    #7
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    Quoting: The_Ultimate_Pielord
    Gardiner's the Leafs best dman and a solid #1D, probably top 15 in the league. Him plus anything for Myers is a major overpay.


    reilly is much better then gardiner lol. Gardiner is a solid player but no better then a second pairing guy because he can't defend for his life. Reilly plays on the umber one PP and plays against other teams top lines
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    Jun. 15, 2018 at 12:42 a.m.
    #8
    TML34
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    Quoting: The_Ultimate_Pielord
    Gardiner's the Leafs best dman and a solid #1D, probably top 15 in the league. Him plus anything for Myers is a major overpay.


    I just can't see that at all as far as Gardiner. He is unbelievably talented with the puck and one of the best skaters and passers in the league. But his inability to make a simple play when necessary has cost him a lot more times than he has provided offensively. I can see him going somewhere else with a solid defensive core where he can slip in as a solid 2D and have a lot of success with the right core around him.
    Jun. 15, 2018 at 12:48 a.m.
    #9
    I put math in hockey
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    Gardiner's xGA/60 was better than Reilly's, even on the road, where their usages were similar. Babcock's playing Reilly against other team's top lines because his usage philosophy is idiotic. In almost all areas, Gardiner and Reilly are comparable with Gardiner as slightly better. Gardiner's defense looks worse than it is because of his high-risk high-reward style in transition, but that style actually suppresses GA and xGA by preventing the Leafs from getting pinned in their own zone.

    This high-risk style is also why people chastise him for not making simple plays: the simple, safe play is often the one that is less effective in transition and doesn't often lead to fast breakouts and rush chances.
    Goulet liked this.
    Jun. 15, 2018 at 2:36 a.m.
    #10
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    Gardiner is not better then Rielly, its not even close, that argument ended 2 years ago.
    Jun. 15, 2018 at 6:39 a.m.
    #11
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    if the jets can sign trouba fo five years they don't make the trade. the leafs don't make the trade with trouba wanting free agency in two years. so really the premise of the trade really is wrong. holl and Marincin making the leafs hasn't improved the defence at all.
    Jun. 15, 2018 at 7:41 a.m.
    #12
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    Quoting: The_Ultimate_Pielord
    Gardiner's the Leafs best dman and a solid #1D, probably top 15 in the league. Him plus anything for Myers is a major overpay.


    Lol, Gardiner isn't a top 40 defenseman and isn't your #1
    Jun. 15, 2018 at 8:32 a.m.
    #13
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    The Rielly v Gardiner debate is interesting...I don't think it's as black and white as some are proclaiming.

    Just my opinion, but Rielly is the more consistent defender and more reliable in his own end.

    Gardiner is more sporadic. He certainly has nights where he's heads and tails above Rielly on both ends of the ice...but those are balanced with games where he has a brain cramp making a simple play out of his zone.

    When it comes to coaching d-men, I'd imagine the coach puts more value in the consistency of knowing what you're going to get each night.

    I like Gardiner a lot tho. I can stomach the occasional brutal giveaway for the way he handles the puck...and that pass he made to Nylander vs. the Ducks in a random Februsary game stands out just as much as his piss poor game 7.

    Is he a top 15 d-man in the league? Is he outside the top 40? I'd say the majority of the season he's a top-20 dman. Some nights he plays like a top-5...others he plays like he should be sitting in the press box.
    Jun. 15, 2018 at 9:06 a.m.
    #14
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    Quoting: clark
    if the jets can sign trouba fo five years they don't make the trade. the leafs don't make the trade with trouba wanting free agency in two years. so really the premise of the trade really is wrong. holl and Marincin making the leafs hasn't improved the defence at all.


    The premise here is a 1 for 1 with a 5 year extension as opposed to the typical offers of spare parts. It may not make sense from a Winnipeg prospective but this was more about gauging the response of a Rielly deal.

    Filling out the roster with rfa's is irrelevant other than to show cap space.
    Jun. 15, 2018 at 9:07 a.m.
    #15
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    Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
    Lol, Gardiner isn't a top 40 defenseman and isn't your #1


    15th in scoring.
    Jun. 15, 2018 at 9:10 a.m.
    #16
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    Quoting: TheCelt
    Jets pass. Not that your value is off, because I love Reilly's game, but like Pie Lord said, it throws our balance off. One of Trouba's best attributes is his chemistry with Morrissey. We have ourselves a nice unflashy top pairing which can eat other teams' top 6 minutes like french bread. Trading Trouba would force Maurice's gameplan in how he deploys his pairing to completely change, and it would probably really diminish Morrissey's value to us.

    Jets also have arguably the defenseman in the AHL, Sami Niku, Logan Stanley, and Dylan Samberg coming down the prospect pipe on the left side. Reilly for Trouba is trading a position of need for a position of depth. Just would not work for the Jets.

    On that note, may I offer you one Tyler Myers? Myers for a 2nd+prospect or Myers for 25OA is kind of the price the Jets are looking for atm.

    If you are looking for high level defenseman that could be shopped, I would refer you to either Minnesota or St. Louis.


    I believe the Leafs would prefer to add Myers for picks and/or prospects rather than trading roster players. If it's cap space you're after, we may be able to help.
    Jun. 15, 2018 at 9:13 a.m.
    #17
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    Quoting: SirCharles
    Gardiner is not better then Rielly, its not even close, that argument ended 2 years ago.


    2 years ago... Was that the year Rielly was minus 20? And Jake was plus 24?

    You're right. Case closed.
    Jun. 15, 2018 at 10:12 a.m.
    #18
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    Quoting: The_Ultimate_Pielord
    Love the core premise from TOR's perspective, but I have a few concerns.
    1. Not sure how WPG feels about this one. I get the sense from folks like Garret Hohl and @WPGMurat on twitter that the Jets are pretty ok with their balance between LD and RD, as Morrisey/Myers develop. Might be better off hunting for a Reilly for Petry deal with MTL, since they have a more definitive balance issue.
    2. Running something along the line of Marleau-Kadri-Kapanen as a checking line might make more sense, as Babcock's style seems to demand a definitive matchup line, which this team doesn't really have. Marleau's also probably overkill alongside Matthews + Marner anyway.
    3. Probably makes more sense to carry 14 Fwds and keep Holl with the Marlies. Helps him develop and is more usual for an NHL team.

    That said, these are really minor things. I love the faith in Gardiner as LD and the decisive move to get a 1RD. I like the decision to keep cap space open in order to avoid having to break up the team when the ELCs end. No real holes on the roster and strength all the way around. Excellent work.


    Reilly for Petry......and you've lost all credibility. Petry could very possibly have trouble cracking the leafs lineup and he is a RHD. I'd take Carrack and Zaitsev over him all day long. Possibly even Holl over him.
    Jun. 15, 2018 at 10:18 a.m.
    #19
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    Quoting: The_Ultimate_Pielord
    Gardiner's the Leafs best dman and a solid #1D, probably top 15 in the league. Him plus anything for Myers is a major overpay.


    Gardiner is not the Leafs best Dman. Those who believe he is their best Dman only read advance stats zealots and think thats the be all and end all. It isn't. And before you start going off on how stupid I am for dumping on Gardiner for 1 bad game, let me stop you. I like Jake Gardiner, I like him a lot. He's one of the best puck movers in the league, top 15? Not even close, the guy is so weak along the boards and you need to be able to go to the corners and retrieve the puck to be an elite defenceman. Gardiner just doesn't want to do that. He gets flat footed in his own zone a lot, cause he sits off guys and waits for them to make a move and then he puts himself out of position when he reaches for pucks instead of playing the body. This is why I say he should be traded to a team who needs a puck mover. Dermott I think will be better than Gardiner in the not to distant future. Give him the 2nd LHD spot and then open up the 3rd LHD for either Hainsey or Borgman, Rosen or any other Lefty.

    The leafs need to complement what they have not drastically alter it. Bring in a RHD who can slot into the top pairing with Rielly and then leave the rest as is. Or maybe trade Gardiner, to free up some cap space and bring in more assets to develop.
    Jun. 15, 2018 at 10:28 a.m.
    #20
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    Quoting: Goulet
    15th in scoring.


    Scoring isn't the most important metric for a defenceman. A winger yes but not for a blue liner. They need to be able to play well in their own zone and since Gardiner has no taste for going into the corners or battling along the boards, he'd likely be left out of the top 50 by most hockey people. And stop using the advance stats stuff as the only thing that matters because its only part of the equation. They should be looking at 1 on 1 battles, battles in the corners, puck retrievals and boxing out players in front of your own net as a major contributor to advance stats for defencemen. Gardiner is not good at any of the things I just mentioned. Reilly is pretty good at all those things which makes him more valuable by a wide margin. Still Gardiner is great, but he is most effective against lower level competition because he is soft in his own zone.
    Jun. 15, 2018 at 11:08 a.m.
    #21
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    Quoting: Goulet
    15th in scoring.


    That tends to happen when you play on a high scoring team
    Jun. 15, 2018 at 11:09 a.m.
    #22
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    Quoting: LoganOllivier
    Reilly for Petry......and you've lost all credibility. Petry could very possibly have trouble cracking the leafs lineup and he is a RHD. I'd take Carrack and Zaitsev over him all day long. Possibly even Holl over him.


    Of course you would. Leafs fans on here think their entire roster is made up of hall of famers and that Marlins players fetch high draft picks
    Jun. 15, 2018 at 11:24 a.m.
    #23
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    Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
    Of course you would. Leafs fans on here think their entire roster is made up of hall of famers and that Marlins players fetch high draft picks


    So Petry is a future hall of famer? Come on man, no one in their right mind could ever compare those two.

    Petry is 30, has been a plus player once in his career.

    Reilly is 6 years younger and has more points than Petry has in career. Why am I even having this conversation?
    Jun. 15, 2018 at 12:06 p.m.
    #24
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    Quoting: LoganOllivier
    So Petry is a future hall of famer? Come on man, no one in their right mind could ever compare those two.

    Petry is 30, has been a plus player once in his career.

    Reilly is 6 years younger and has more points than Petry has in career. Why am I even having this conversation?


    You said justin holl who has played 2 NHL games by age 26 is better.
    Jun. 15, 2018 at 12:14 p.m.
    #25
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    Quoting: LoganOllivier
    Scoring isn't the most important metric for a defenceman. A winger yes but not for a blue liner. They need to be able to play well in their own zone and since Gardiner has no taste for going into the corners or battling along the boards, he'd likely be left out of the top 50 by most hockey people. And stop using the advance stats stuff as the only thing that matters because its only part of the equation. They should be looking at 1 on 1 battles, battles in the corners, puck retrievals and boxing out players in front of your own net as a major contributor to advance stats for defencemen. Gardiner is not good at any of the things I just mentioned. Reilly is pretty good at all those things which makes him more valuable by a wide margin. Still Gardiner is great, but he is most effective against lower level competition because he is soft in his own zone.


    Who is using advanced stats?
    This isn't a debate about Gardiner vs Rielly. Both have their supporters and it all boils down to opinions which are irrelevant.
    You weight your bias based on corners, boxing out, and puck retrieval and the reality is that none of the Leafs do any of that particularly well.

    At the end of the day, we all see what we want to see.
     
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