Forums/Armchair-GM

Skinner and Faulk to CHI, Sparks from TOR

Created by: tad77
Initial Creation Date: Jun 20, 2018
Published: Jun 20, 2018 at 9:38
Team: 2018-19 Carolina Hurricanes
Team Explanation
Svechnikov assumed to be taken 2nd overall, Necas makes the jump. McKeown establishes full time #4 defenseman role.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
van Riemsdyk, Trevor2$2,500,000
Hanifin, Noah3$3,000,000
Lindholm, Elias4$5,000,000
Zykov, Valentin2$1,500,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
van Riemsdyk, James7$7,000,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Svechnikov, Andrei3$925,000
Trades
CAR
  1. Hossa, Marián
  2. Murphy, Connor
  3. 2018 1st round pick (CHI)
  4. 2018 1st round pick (NSH)
CHI
  1. Faulk, Justin
  2. Skinner, Jeff
  3. 2018 4th round pick (ARI)
CAR
  1. Sparks, Garret
TOR
  1. 2018 2nd round pick (CAR)
Buyouts
  • Alexander Semin: $2,333,333
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Justin Faulk: $683,333 (14%)
  • Marcus Krüger: $308,333 (10%)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2018
CAR
CHI
NSH
CAR
CAR
CAR
VGK
2019
CAR
CAR
CAR
CAR
CAR
CAR
CGY
2020
CAR
CAR
CAR
CAR
CAR
CAR
CAR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
24$80,000,000$71,674,998$0$2,215,000$8,325,002
Left WingCenterRight Wing
Aho, Sebastian
$925,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
Staal, Jordan
$6,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 5
Teräväinen, Teuvo
$2,860,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
van Riemsdyk, James
$7,000,000
LW
UFA - 5
Lindholm, Elias
$5,000,000
C, RW
UFA - 6
Svechnikov, Andrei
$925,000
Zykov, Valentin
$1,500,000
LW
UFA - 2
Necas, Martin
$894,167
RW, C
RFA - 4
Williams, Justin
$4,500,000
RW
NTC
UFA - 1
McGinn, Brock
$887,500
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Rask, Victor
$4,000,000
C
UFA - 4
Gauthier, Julien
$863,333
RW
RFA - 3
Martinook, Jordan
$1,800,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 1
Kuokkanen, Janne
$811,666
LW, C
RFA - 3
Hossa, Marián
$5,275,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 3
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Slavin, Jaccob
$5,300,000
LD
UFA - 7
Pesce, Brett
$4,025,000
RD
UFA - 6
Sparks, Garret
$675,000
G
UFA - 1
Hanifin, Noah
$3,000,000
LD
UFA - 6
McKeown, Roland
$745,000
RD
RFA - 1
Darling, Scott
$4,150,000
G
NTC
UFA - 3
Fleury, Haydn
$863,333
LD/RD
RFA - 1
van Riemsdyk, Trevor
$2,500,000
RD
UFA - 2
Murphy, Connor
$3,850,000
RD
UFA - 4

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Jun 20, 2018 at 10:17
#1
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 22,773
Likes: 7,113
What do you think TO would have to add to get Pesce out of Carolina? Perhaps Sparks and a 2nd for Pesce? Or maybe Sparks, Rosen/Borgman and a 2nd for Pesce?
Jun 20, 2018 at 10:38
#2
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 218
Likes: 23
Canes would ask huge overpayment. He is locked on canes first pair with Slavin for next 6 years only 4mil a year. Sparks + 2nd isn't even close and prospects + picks isn't rly what canes need at the moment.
Jun 20, 2018 at 10:42
#3
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun 2017
Posts: 373
Likes: 88
Quoting: LoganOllivier
What do you think TO would have to add to get Pesce out of Carolina? Perhaps Sparks and a 2nd for Pesce? Or maybe Sparks, Rosen/Borgman and a 2nd for Pesce?


Yeah I think getting Pesce out of Carolina wouldn't be worth it for the Leafs. If you aren't starting the discussion with Nylander or Kadri, then you're talking Dermott + AJ + more. It wouldn't be a good deal for the Leafs in the long run.
Jun 20, 2018 at 10:47
#4
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 22,773
Likes: 7,113
Quoting: tadhockey
Yeah I think getting Pesce out of Carolina wouldn't be worth it for the Leafs. If you aren't starting the discussion with Nylander or Kadri, then you're talking Dermott + AJ + more. It wouldn't be a good deal for the Leafs in the long run.


My assessment of Pesce is a younger less injury prone version of Chris Tanev. Is that fair? If so then that price tag is insane for a solid defensive defenceman. Nylander is worth far more than any defensive defenceman, Period. Same goes for Kadri who's scored back to back 30. That would make Kadri more valuable than Skinner and Nylander is far more valuable than Kadri.

Wouldn't a more fair deal be Pesce for a 1st + a non roster prospect?
Jun 20, 2018 at 10:51
#5
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun 2017
Posts: 373
Likes: 88
Quoting: LoganOllivier
My assessment of Pesce is a younger less injury prone version of Chris Tanev. Is that fair? If so then that price tag is insane for a solid defensive defenceman. Nylander is worth far more than any defensive defenceman, Period. Same goes for Kadri who's scored back to back 30. That would make Kadri more valuable than Skinner and Nylander is far more valuable than Kadri.

Wouldn't a more fair deal be Pesce for a 1st + a non roster prospect?


That might be the case if he was a rental. But consider that he's locked up for six more seasons at an extremely affordable rate while playing an absolutely crucial role for the Canes, and that's the price you're talking about. Plus, the Leafs first isn't high enough to get a player that can reliably play on the Canes roster within a year, so that doesn't help Carolina move in the direction they want to go. None of the Leafs' prospects move the needle enough to change that.

A fair package might be Dermott + AJ + Kapanen + Sparks + assorted draft pick compensation.
Jun 20, 2018 at 10:55
#6
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 218
Likes: 23
Why would canes swap Pesce to late first and prospect? They would ask overpayment.
Jun 20, 2018 at 10:57
#7
Joined: Apr 2016
Posts: 2,637
Likes: 1,112
If Sparks isn't going to at least back-up Freddy this year...a 2nd is fair value for him
Jun 20, 2018 at 11:05
#8
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 22,773
Likes: 7,113
Quoting: tadhockey
That might be the case if he was a rental. But consider that he's locked up for six more seasons at an extremely affordable rate while playing an absolutely crucial role for the Canes, and that's the price you're talking about. Plus, the Leafs first isn't high enough to get a player that can reliably play on the Canes roster within a year, so that doesn't help Carolina move in the direction they want to go. None of the Leafs' prospects move the needle enough to change that.

A fair package might be Dermott + AJ + Kapanen + Sparks + assorted draft pick compensation.


You are going way overboard for a defensive defenceman. Dermott could very well already be more valuable. He showed great in his first half season in the NHL. Johnsson and Kapanen could score 40 goals between the two and Sparks was the best goalie in the AHL last year, (Goaltending being the biggest weakness Carolina has). A defensive defenceman isn't worth 40 goals, let alone a highly regarded young goalie and a 22 year old defencemen poised to join the top 4 in TO as soon as this season.

Pesce's value would go something like this.

Contract is a +1
Age is +1
Skill level =
Ceiling =
Need from To for a RHD +2

So lets say that give him a value of +4 (I'm kind of creating a system of valuation here)

Sparks
Contracts =
Age = (he's a little older for a prospect but not too old to make him a negative)
Skill Level =
Ceiling + 1

Dermott
Contract +1 (two more years at ELC)
Age +1 (under 22)
Skill Level +1
Ceiling +2 (he is definitely a top 4 LHD)

Dermott would have more long term value than Pesce based on the type of players they are projected to be.

Kapanen
Contract = (1 more year at ELC)
Age +1 Under 22
Skill +2
Ceiling +2

Kapanen is looking like he can be an effective top 6 winger and elite penalty killer his value is equal to Pesce

Johnsson
Contract = He is RFA so this is an unknown but won't be expensive
Age = He's 25 so he's a late bloomer
Skill +1
Ceiling +1

Johnson is still a bit of an unknown but he sure looked good last year and was a star for the Marlies

With this evaluation (Literally just made this up) I would say Sparks and Johnsson would make a fair trade for Pesce. Throw in a 3rd from TO for good measure but all 4 of those pieces is an extreme over payment.

Chris Tanev, who is currently better than Pesce, albeit a more injury prone player, (a lot of those injuries are bad luck though) would only net the Canucks a 2nd and a non roster prospect. So I think something like Sparks, Johnssson and a 3rd would be a fair price for Pesce.
Jun 20, 2018 at 1:33
#9
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun 2017
Posts: 373
Likes: 88
Quoting: LoganOllivier
You are going way overboard for a defensive defenceman. Dermott could very well already be more valuable. He showed great in his first half season in the NHL. Johnsson and Kapanen could score 40 goals between the two and Sparks was the best goalie in the AHL last year, (Goaltending being the biggest weakness Carolina has). A defensive defenceman isn't worth 40 goals, let alone a highly regarded young goalie and a 22 year old defencemen poised to join the top 4 in TO as soon as this season.

snipped

With this evaluation (Literally just made this up) I would say Sparks and Johnsson would make a fair trade for Pesce. Throw in a 3rd from TO for good measure but all 4 of those pieces is an extreme over payment.

Chris Tanev, who is currently better than Pesce, albeit a more injury prone player, (a lot of those injuries are bad luck though) would only net the Canucks a 2nd and a non roster prospect. So I think something like Sparks, Johnssson and a 3rd would be a fair price for Pesce.


I mean you can think what you want, but you're ignoring a significant number of realities and really only looking at it from a Leafs' homer perspective. You seem to define Pesce as a defensive defenseman and therefore a #5 at best, when in reality he plays a #2 or #3 at worst for Carolina. He's definitely better than Tanev (check hockey reference -> nearly the same PPG along with much better possession metrics and shot charts, especially with no powerplay time) and he's locked in at an extremely reasonable rate for a top 4 defenseman for six years. Furthermore, Carolina needs pieces to play in their lineup NOW, not later.

Meanwhile, in my mind, you overrate the Leafs pieces (especially Kapanen, who probably profiles as a third-line winger) significantly, while failing to realize that the total impact of those Leafs on the current roster isn't very large (Dermott plays the most significant role, as the #5 defenseman).

Maybe I came in too high, but I think anything not involving Dermott-caliber or better is a non-starter for Carolina.
Jun 20, 2018 at 1:48
#10
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 22,773
Likes: 7,113
Quoting: tadhockey
I mean you can think what you want, but you're ignoring a significant number of realities and really only looking at it from a Leafs' homer perspective. You seem to define Pesce as a defensive defenseman and therefore a #5 at best, when in reality he plays a #2 or #3 at worst for Carolina. He's definitely better than Tanev (check hockey reference -> nearly the same PPG along with much better possession metrics and shot charts, especially with no powerplay time) and he's locked in at an extremely reasonable rate for a top 4 defenseman for six years. Furthermore, Carolina needs pieces to play in their lineup NOW, not later.

Meanwhile, in my mind, you overrate the Leafs pieces (especially Kapanen, who probably profiles as a third-line winger) significantly, while failing to realize that the total impact of those Leafs on the current roster isn't very large (Dermott plays the most significant role, as the #5 defenseman).

Maybe I came in too high, but I think anything not involving Dermott-caliber or better is a non-starter for Carolina.


I would pencil Pesce in the top pairing in TO to play with Reilly. If I was Dubas, I would also trade Gardiner for some good assets and move Dermott into the second pairing. In my opinion Dermott's upside is way higher than Pesce who I think will be an extremely good partner for a guy like Reilly and will chip in with 20-30 points, kill penalties and be excellent in his own end. Dermott I think will QB the Leafs second PP unit in the very near future. That ceiling puts him ahead of Pesce value wise since offence is the premium and Pesce is limited in that regard. Still a very valuable player, just a different sort of value.

Dermott is a no go from the Leafs. So I think we'd have to rejig with a different prospect. Also Liljegren is completely off the table.

How about

Pesce for the 25th pick, Rosen and Bracco?

Rosen I think will be a very solid NHL defencemen. More of a 2nd pairing guy who can run a PP as well. Bracco has a tonne of upside as well but he's burried by the Leafs depth at RW.
Jun 20, 2018 at 1:50
#11
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun 2017
Posts: 373
Likes: 88
Quoting: LoganOllivier
I would pencil Pesce in the top pairing in TO to play with Reilly. If I was Dubas, I would also trade Gardiner for some good assets and move Dermott into the second pairing. In my opinion Dermott's upside is way higher than Pesce who I think will be an extremely good partner for a guy like Reilly and will chip in with 20-30 points, kill penalties and be excellent in his own end. Dermott I think will QB the Leafs second PP unit in the very near future. That ceiling puts him ahead of Pesce value wise since offence is the premium and Pesce is limited in that regard. Still a very valuable player, just a different sort of value.

Dermott is a no go from the Leafs. So I think we'd have to rejig with a different prospect. Also Liljegren is completely off the table.

How about

Pesce for the 25th pick, Rosen and Bracco?

Rosen I think will be a very solid NHL defencemen. More of a 2nd pairing guy who can run a PP as well. Bracco has a tonne of upside as well but he's burried by the Leafs depth at RW.


There's no chance that trade would happen. Your projection for Pesce might not be unreasonable, but the value you're willing to provide in compensation for the player isn't anywhere close to reasonable.
Jun 20, 2018 at 1:53
#12
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 22,773
Likes: 7,113
Quoting: tadhockey
There's no chance that trade would happen. Your projection for Pesce might not be unreasonable, but the value you're willing to provide in compensation for the player isn't anywhere close to reasonable.


Pesce may cost more than I am willing to pay then. A 1st, and two good prospects with NHL experience (albeit small, Rosen has only played 2 games in the NHL I believe), for Pesce seems pretty fair.

And as I was writing this, I realized I left out Sparks in the trade. Take out Bracco and replace with sparks.

Pesce for a 1st rounder, Sparks and Leivo or Rosen

Some may say that is a steep price to pay but I think its fair, perhaps a little bit better for Carolina, considering their depth on the blue line. I've seen packages compared to this for Hanafin.
Jun 20, 2018 at 1:59
#13
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun 2017
Posts: 373
Likes: 88
Quoting: LoganOllivier
Pesce may cost more than I am willing to pay then. A 1st, and two good prospects with NHL experience (albeit small, Rosen has only played 2 games in the NHL I believe), for Pesce seems pretty fair.

And as I was writing this, I realized I left out Sparks in the trade. Take out Bracco and replace with sparks.

Pesce for a 1st rounder, Sparks and Leivo or Rosen

Some may say that is a steep price to pay but I think its fair, perhaps a little bit better for Carolina, considering their depth on the blue line. I've seen packages compared to this for Hanafin.


Two things:

1) Nobody would say that's steep. I'd say that's a deeply-Leafs biased trade.

2) If anyone is talking about that package for Hanifin, they're either A) giving up a much higher pick than 25th (think: 6-9). or B ) also talking from a deeply-Leafs biased perspective

Seems to me like Carolina defensemen are far too rich for the cost you're willing to pay.
Jun 20, 2018 at 2:03
#14
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 22,773
Likes: 7,113
Quoting: tadhockey
Two things:

1) Nobody would say that's steep. I'd say that's a deeply-Leafs biased trade.

2) If anyone is talking about that package for Hanifin, they're either A) giving up a much higher pick than 25th (think: 6-9). or B ) also talking from a deeply-Leafs biased perspective

Seems to me like Carolina defensemen are far too rich for the cost you're willing to pay.


Looks that way. I would point out that Washington paid less for Shattenkirk a couple of years ago. Granted that was for a rental but still Shattenkirks value was much higher than Pesce. Pesce will get a nice return, mainly cause he is right handed. If he was left handed, no one would even be thinking about him. Not that he isn't good, he is very good. He just doesn't have that dynamic element that 2 way guys have which does limit the value a tad.

So with all this in mind, I'd say thanks for the discussion and good luck in the coming season. We're going to give Winnipeg a call and get Myers, for less. That'll likely cost a 1st and one prospect if not just 1 first. Winnipeg is in a cap bind which does sap some of their negotiating strength.
 
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