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NYLANDER SIGN_OUTSIDE OF BOX THINKING

Created by: yu254614
Team: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 4, 2018
Published: Jul. 4, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Nylander sign max 1yr deal then sign extension .
(Just like what people suggested for JT)

If Leafs/Nylander negotiate 6M x 8yrs = 48M contract. Then, Leafs sign 1yr 10M contract with mostly signing bonus,
then next year sign 5.42M x 7yrs = 38M to lower cap hit.

If leafs do think they have cap room this year and not many impact FA left, I will try this bearing a trade.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$950,000
3$1,500,000
1$10,000,000
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2019
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the STL
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2020
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the SJS
2021
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$79,500,000$72,970,833$2,550,000$4,550,000$6,529,167
Left WingCentreRight Wing
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 7
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RW
UFA - 1
$6,250,000$6,250,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 2
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,850,000$3M)
C
UFA - 1
$10,000,000$10,000,000
RW
UFA - 6
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 3
$4,500,000$4,500,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 4
$863,333$863,333
RW
UFA - 1
$925,000$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 2
$950,000$950,000
C
UFA - 2
$2,100,000$2,100,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
$925,000$925,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$650,000$650,000
C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 4
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 6
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 3
$4,050,000$4,050,000
LD
UFA - 1
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
$850,000$850,000
G
UFA - 1
$863,333$863,333
LD/RD
UFA - 2
$1,300,000$1,300,000
RD
UFA - 1
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
$5,300,000$5,300,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2

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Jul. 4, 2018 at 8:41 p.m.
#1
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Just because others suggested that silly one year contract, didn't make it viable. And what's the benefit for Nylander (even if the Leafs offered and he the signed to that 1 year deal). Nylander can just say no to any extension and then the Leafs have Nylander as an RFA next summer. Sure as heck he's going to make than 5.42 a year after that.
Jul. 4, 2018 at 8:47 p.m.
#2
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Yeah that doesn't stand a chance in hell of happening. Nylander would be an idiot to risk everything on a one year deal.
Jul. 4, 2018 at 9:01 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: Goldendelicious
Yeah that doesn't stand a chance in hell of happening. Nylander would be an idiot to risk everything on a one year deal.


Nylander's agent should jump all over that. It would cost Tor $10m to even qualify him next off-season. He could be a FA at age 23.
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Jul. 4, 2018 at 9:03 p.m.
#4
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Few things.

1. I like the concept and it would help create some much appreciated cap space
2. I'm not sure the league would approve this as it might be considered cap circumvention. Although I'm not sure how they go back and stop it. But could be problems if, after signing the 1-yr $10m deal, the league stepped in and forced arbitration/mediation or something that throws the whole plan out of whack. They'd need to get the league's blessing before attempting this
3. To answer @palhal on the benefit to Nylander...$10m in the bank today is worth more than, say, a $5m, 2yr bridge due to the time value of money.
4. If there's trust and understanding from both parties, and he goes on to sign for the suggested 7yr x 5.42m. It's the equivalent of an 8x$6m deal...which is generally considered to be the low end of the range for Nylander...so, at the end of the day, I'm not sure the numbers make sense...but it depends on what Nylander and his agent are currently asking for on an 8yr deal. If they aren't budging off, say $7m over 8 years...then this method could theoretically bring the cap hit down to $6.5. Not sure the $500k is worth this intricate dance...but I'll give 5 stars for the unique thought.
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Jul. 4, 2018 at 9:04 p.m.
#5
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Quoting: Goldendelicious
Yeah that doesn't stand a chance in hell of happening. Nylander would be an idiot to risk everything on a one year deal.


I kinda disagree. Nylander could easily buy insurance to make any difference in injury. And when Nylander refuses to sign an extension, the Leafs have to offer him 10m.\ to retain his rights in 2019, otherwise he's a UFA.
Yea, I think Nylander takes his chances for a year to be a UFA in 2019/20. That's why this type of trying to fiddle with the cap is so unrealistic.
Jul. 4, 2018 at 9:04 p.m.
#6
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I quite like how you're thinking about this -- what you're presenting is a basic finance problem related to time value of money.

And, assuming that team and player can legally negotiate what is effectively two contracts (thereby protecting the player in the event of injury, insurance, etc.), then Nylander should be financially indifferent to the following scenarios:

1) 1-year Contract for $10M, paid as $8M signing bonus + $2M salary; plus, the 7-year Extension you've described ($5.42M)
2) 8-year Contract for $50.9M ($6.36M AAV)

**Used a 10% discount rate**

He may ask for $7M or more, but this is a really, really slick idea *if legally passable within the CBA*. You're talking about pulling a bunch of cap hit forward to today and efffectively saving the team close to $1M in AAV per season for the final 7 years of the deal.

More of this.
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Jul. 4, 2018 at 10:32 p.m.
#7
Who adds what?
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Not sure if I have this right, but once his 10Mx1year contract is approved, isn't he then able to sign an eight year extension with the Leafs? Does that change the AAV at all, if so? Is Nylander at 32 going to be worth more or less than he is right now? Is the added security of, functionally, a ninth contract year, worth more to him than the chance to hit UFA sooner?

I kind of think it's a lot of trouble to go to for about 1 minimum contract's worth of cap space in the later years.... but it does make sense to try to use the cap space while the Leafs have it, and there don't seem to be many UFAs left worth adding at 4M on one year deals this year.
Jul. 4, 2018 at 10:39 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: Eli
Not sure if I have this right, but once his 10Mx1year contract is approved, isn't he then able to sign an eight year extension with the Leafs? Does that change the AAV at all, if so? Is Nylander at 32 going to be worth more or less than he is right now? Is the added security of, functionally, a ninth contract year, worth more to him than the chance to hit UFA sooner?

I kind of think it's a lot of trouble to go to for about 1 minimum contract's worth of cap space in the later years.... but it does make sense to try to use the cap space while the Leafs have it, and there don't seem to be many UFAs left worth adding at 4M on one year deals this year.


I think they would have to wait for Jan. 1, 2019 to sign another extension. The AAV on that extension wouldn't theoretically apply until the 19-20 season.

I mean, it's not a realistic scenario but I like the line of thinking
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Jul. 4, 2018 at 11:53 p.m.
#9
Who adds what?
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Quoting: Juice
I think they would have to wait for Jan. 1, 2019 to sign another extension. The AAV on that extension wouldn't theoretically apply until the 19-20 season.

I mean, it's not a realistic scenario but I like the line of thinking


Thanks! Cool.... So..... but that next extension, it can be another eight years? Do the Leafs, in January, recoup any further cap savings for writing an extension at say, 40 over 8, for a total of 50 over 9? Obviously a couple guys like Marleau are still getting contracts into their mid thirties with high dollar amounts, but there's also something to be said for looking at the average lengths of careers of top six wingers in the NHL. It's a dangerous job. Having an extra couple million might be worth lowering the cap a bit. But while we're totally ignoring reality, why are we leaving the Leafs with 6M in wasted cap space. I mean, how about a one year 16M deal, in exchange for agreeing to an extension at 4x8? I think the CBA pretty clearly was a response to an offersheet on Fedorov that used this kind of math, but I wonder whether it actually says anything about players signing with the team that already controls their rights. There's obviously no obligation to make long term plans. If the Leafs offer a one year8M deal and then extend him at 6M, it's hard to say if he's taking a hometown discount out of loyalty or just because he sees the value in long term security.

Of course, as a Caps fan, I should point out that there are plenty of teams that would love to welcome Nylander with open arms if he ever does decide to pursue unrestricted free agency, but for the enjoyment of the exercise in salary cap logic, I woudn't doubt that this happens all the time, if one looks back far enough. Players' contract values go up and down, and it's pretty hard to tell how any of the amounts make sense when games are fun to play, and, if money weren't an issue, we'd all play hockey for free, quite happily.
Jul. 5, 2018 at 6:11 a.m.
#10
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Quoting: palhal
I kinda disagree. Nylander could easily buy insurance to make any difference in injury. And when Nylander refuses to sign an extension, the Leafs have to offer him 10m.\ to retain his rights in 2019, otherwise he's a UFA.
Yea, I think Nylander takes his chances for a year to be a UFA in 2019/20. That's why this type of trying to fiddle with the cap is so unrealistic.


If the Leafs needed to spend 10m to qualify him they would just let him walk.

All in all, the point is mute because the Leafs are not stupid enough to offer him that contract.
Jul. 5, 2018 at 7:26 a.m.
#11
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billy80
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Quoting: Goldendelicious
If the Leafs needed to spend 10m to qualify him they would just let him walk.

All in all, the point is mute because the Leafs are not stupid enough to offer him that contract.


I checked the qualify offers for RFA, they only count "basic salary". That is why I mentioned 8M in signing bonus.
Jul. 5, 2018 at 7:33 a.m.
#12
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billy80
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Quoting: Eli
Not sure if I have this right, but once his 10Mx1year contract is approved, isn't he then able to sign an eight year extension with the Leafs? Does that change the AAV at all, if so? Is Nylander at 32 going to be worth more or less than he is right now? Is the added security of, functionally, a ninth contract year, worth more to him than the chance to hit UFA sooner?

I kind of think it's a lot of trouble to go to for about 1 minimum contract's worth of cap space in the later years.... but it does make sense to try to use the cap space while the Leafs have it, and there don't seem to be many UFAs left worth adding at 4M on one year deals this year.


I used 8 yrs extension as example but "IF" Nylander and Leafs are thinking of Bridge contract around 6M per year for 3 years, it makes it better cap saving as AAV 6M come down to AAV 4M for 2 years.
I think Nylander has nothing to lose here after ok regular season and bad playoffs. If they are thinking about bridge contract for him then it makes more sense.

Cap space not used are money in the drain so if they are not thinking about a big trade to add salary this year, it is viable option.
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