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The Leafs CAN keep all of Matthews, Marne, Taveres and Nylander in 2019-20. My thoughts on how.

What would you give Mitch Marner in a contract?
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Jul 5, 2018 at 2:45
#1
DieHardLeafsFan
Joined: Jul 2018
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Hi, I see people are worried about the Leafs ability to stay under the cap. It won't be an issue this year but will be in 19-20 when Matthews and Marner's new salaries kick in.
I made an attempt to see if they can keep all 4 in 19-20 (Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Tavares).

First, the cap is about 80M this year, I predicted 82.5M in 19-20. As you can see, the Leafs can stay under the cap providing they do a couple of small moves. They would need to buy out Marleau after this coming year and they could only keep one of Gardiner or Hainsey on D, but they can do it. Here is what it would look like.
Forwards (14) Salary (Millions) in 19-20
Matthews $12.00 Estimate
Tavares $11.00
Marner $8.00 Estimate
Nylander $6.50 Estimate
Kadri $4.50
Hyman $2.25
Brown $2.10
Kapanen $1.75 Estimate
Johnsson $1.25 Estimate
Leivo $1.00 Estimate
Lindholm $0.93 Estimate
Gauthier $0.93 Estimate
Grundstrom/Aaltonen $0.93 Estimate
Mueller/Moore $0.93 Estimate
Total $ spent on forwards $54.05

Defence (7)
Reilly $5.00
Zaitsev $4.50
Gardiner or Hainsey $4.00 Estimate
Carrick $1.25 Estimate
Liljegren/Rosen $0.90
Dermott $0.88
Marincin/Holl/Borgman $0.80
Total $ spent on defencemen $17.33

Goalie (2)
Anderson $5.00
Sparks/Picard $0.80 Estimate
Total $ spent on defencemen $5.80

Other
Kessel $1.20
Marleau - cost to buyout of last year of contract $2.08

19-20 Cap Estimate $82.50
Total Cap Used $80.46
Cap Available $2.04 Under Cap
Am I far off? It just shows they can do it, buying out a 39 year old Marleau from the last year of his contract adds 4M space to the cap. The forward group here is very strong but as you can see, the defence is young.

Am I far off? Please feel free to comment.
Jul 5, 2018 at 3:02
#2
Joined: Jun 2017
Posts: 373
Likes: 86
I don't think you're particularly far off, but I would adjust a few things.

1) Nylander and Marner's numbers are probably a little low. I don't know if I would adjust either by more than $500k upwards, and that might be cancelled out by Mathews' $12 (which I see more likely an $11+), but something to consider.
2) Kapanen and Johnsson are also probably a little low. I would go 2+ for Kapanen and 1.8 for Johnsson. Both will be short deals.
3) If the team returns Hainsey, then $4mil sounds like the high water mark. If it returns Gardiner, that number is FAR too low. Look in the $7-8mil range.

Everything else looks about right.
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Jul 5, 2018 at 3:08
#3
Thread Starter
DieHardLeafsFan
Joined: Jul 2018
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Interesting comment on Kapanen. I don't see him getting what Brown and Hyman are at. I am not sure he has really proved himself yet.

While the Matthews/Marner/Nylander estimates may be close....I had the hardest time estimating Gardiner's worth. I have him at 4, you have him at 7M which is 2M more than Reilly. I am not sure he gets more than Reilly. One game never makes a player but he had a horrible game 7 last year. I really hope he rebounds strong.
Jul 5, 2018 at 3:18
#4
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Joined: Jul 2015
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Marleau can't be bought out as plus 35 signing. The Leafs have his cap hit of 6.25m despite fans protests. Leafs can't afford to resign Gardiner...and I'm no sure if he's wanted anyway. Without trading an expensive forward for cap reasons, the defence might Reilly, Dermot, Borgman, Rosen, Zaitsev, TimmyL. and maybe Ozzie the Russian. Just not much cap flexibility.
Jul 5, 2018 at 3:21
#5
GM of V4 NJD
Joined: May 2017
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Likes: 1,289
Marner isn't getting 8 million and we aren't resigning Gardiner or Hainsey.
Jul 5, 2018 at 3:38
#6
Thread Starter
DieHardLeafsFan
Joined: Jul 2018
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Quoting: palhal
Marleau can't be bought out as plus 35 signing. The Leafs have his cap hit of 6.25m despite fans protests. Leafs can't afford to resign Gardiner...and I'm no sure if he's wanted anyway. Without trading an expensive forward for cap reasons, the defence might Reilly, Dermot, Borgman, Rosen, Zaitsev, TimmyL. and maybe Ozzie the Russian. Just not much cap flexibility.


There has been much debate on the 35+ contract and its cap effect if bought out. There are different insights depending on which site you look at. So I am not as confident as you are that buying out Marleau's final year would not result in cap relief.
Jul 5, 2018 at 3:40
#7
Thread Starter
DieHardLeafsFan
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 7
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Quoting: Daryl
Marner isn't getting 8 million and we aren't resigning Gardiner or Hainsey.


Hi Darryl...do not be so sure on that. I put up a poll on that very question and so far 75% have said he is getting up to 8M as I suggested.
Jul 5, 2018 at 3:45
#8
Joined: Jun 2017
Posts: 373
Likes: 86
Quoting: ILoveTheLeafs
There has been much debate on the 35+ contract and its cap effect if bought out. There are different insights depending on which site you look at. So I am not as confident as you are that buying out Marleau's final year would not result in cap relief.


Nope, he's correct. Marleau can be bought out, but there would be no relief. However, the Leafs could execute a trade.

Quoting: ILoveTheLeafs
Hi Darryl...do not be so sure on that. I put up a poll on that very question and so far 75% have said he is getting up to 8M as I suggested.


I would feel pretty confident in saying that Marner represents a greater player than JVR and E. Kane, who have both received $7mil deals. $8mil sounds like a reasonable price, unless he's squeezed down as an RFA to a lower value.
Jul 5, 2018 at 4:41
#9
GM of V4 NJD
Joined: May 2017
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Quoting: ILoveTheLeafs
Hi Darryl...do not be so sure on that. I put up a poll on that very question and so far 75% have said he is getting up to 8M as I suggested.


Marner doesn't deserve more than Ehlers or Pastrnak who are both under 7 mil. At some point in his career he may be making 8 million, but for his first big contract with only three NHL seasons I don't see Dubas signing him for more than what comparable players are making.
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Jul 5, 2018 at 11:48
#10
Follow @CapFriendly
Joined: Mar 2015
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Quoting: ILoveTheLeafs
There has been much debate on the 35+ contract and its cap effect if bought out. There are different insights depending on which site you look at. So I am not as confident as you are that buying out Marleau's final year would not result in cap relief.


No there is not any debate on buying out a 35+ contract. Look at the Burrows contract for example.Yes a 35+ contract can be bought out, but there is no cap savings applied. Only benefit is one extra roster spot is open.
Jul 12, 2018 at 4:04
#11
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 3,187
Likes: 1,402
Edited Jul 12, 2018 at 12:06
I dont understand ( even as a decades long TML fan ) how you ppl think Matthews 60+ points will earn him the contract that 100+ points McDavid got....or Kucherov

9,5 M tops for Matthews...and even that with the regular 3y standard first with 7,5 M max

Same goes for Nylander and Marner...check the ordinary way TML are going....3y standard contract after ELC usually follows....as for Kadri which gives them both around 5,5 M for 3y standard and the long term upgrade after that....just saying

My take on 2019 / 2020: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/789185
Jul 15, 2018 at 12:08
#12
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 1,873
Likes: 163
The problem with Leaf fans is they think they became sooo much better adding Tavares (and trying to keep the 3 kids). The problem with the Leafs, and will always show in the playoffs is they have crap for D. They will lose 5-4, 6-5 games and never go anywhere deep until they totally revamp the D and get stronger.....
Jul 15, 2018 at 1:03
#13
Below Market Value
Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 1,263
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Quoting: TheTown
The problem with Leaf fans is they think they became sooo much better adding Tavares (and trying to keep the 3 kids). The problem with the Leafs, and will always show in the playoffs is they have crap for D. They will lose 5-4, 6-5 games and never go anywhere deep until they totally revamp the D and get stronger.....


Pittsburgh proved that you don't need to have a stellar blue line in order to win, and they did it two years in a row. You just need good goal-scoring (which they have) and a hot goaltender; Andersen is good enough to where he can steal games for them.

Even Vegas and Washington didn't have exceptionally strong blue lines; no clear number one defenseman, but they played in a good system and worked well as a unit.

(btw, you're not fooling anyone, we all know it's you Paul)
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Jul 15, 2018 at 3:49
#14
tmljk22
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 139
Likes: 60
Quoting: Daryl
Marner doesn't deserve more than Ehlers or Pastrnak who are both under 7 mil. At some point in his career he may be making 8 million, but for his first big contract with only three NHL seasons I don't see Dubas signing him for more than what comparable players are making.


As of right now I think your right. But if Marner goes out and has a 90-100 point season that all changes. If he ends up playing alongside JT all year i doubt he will have less than a point per game
toronto67 liked this.
Jul 15, 2018 at 3:54
#15
I'm a Skatman
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 1,044
Likes: 289
Quoting: DoctorBreakfast
Pittsburgh proved that you don't need to have a stellar blue line in order to win, and they did it two years in a row. You just need good goal-scoring (which they have) and a hot goaltender; Andersen is good enough to where he can steal games for them.

Even Vegas and Washington didn't have exceptionally strong blue lines; no clear number one defenseman, but they played in a good system and worked well as a unit.

(btw, you're not fooling anyone, we all know it's you Paul)


the #1 most important thing nowadays is a strong 1-2C axis imo. judging by that, Toronto probably built a contender.
Jul 15, 2018 at 3:55
#16
tmljk22
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 139
Likes: 60
I found this article on Twitter...

https://editorinleaf.com/2018/07/13/toronto-maple-leafs-auston-matthews-70-goals/

I don’t believe this will happen, though if it did, how much would Matthews be worth?
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Jul 15, 2018 at 3:59
#17
Blues GM v4
Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 8,295
Likes: 2,569
There is going to be one tough year financially for them, but then both Marleau and Horton are off the books. That right there frees up over $11M. And for shits and giggles, let’s just say that they can’t fit them all in. I 100000% guarantee that either Matthews or Marner would take a one year deal for whatever cap they can afford to pay them if it means keeping this core together. They want to win, and if they have to take a one year pay cut to do it, it’ll happen.
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Jul 15, 2018 at 7:18
#18
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 30,527
Likes: 7,531
Horton's contract isn't a factor is 2019/20 and the Leaf won't have much in Performane Bonuses as their "stars" will be regular contacts not ELCs.
And that new found money when Marleau leaves, will be eaten up by new contract hopefully by the strong player of Grundstrom, Dermot and others.
I really don't see if there is a problem if the Leafs run into a cap crunch because they have too many good players deserving of contracts. Some player on an expensive contract would just have be trade for cheap futures. It's the nature of a cap league. Teams get into cap trouble when they have too many players/money tied in bad contracts. or retention or buyouts.
Unlike the pre cap days, teams can't spend endlessly to solve problems. Good cap management is so important now.
Jul 18, 2018 at 8:27
#19
HawksFan28
Joined: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,073
Likes: 134
The Leafs have $25,000,000 in cap space for next season with only 10 players signed.

Matthews - 13.5 million
Marner - 8.5 million
Nylander 7.5 million

That's 29.5 million right there.....

It's not going to work, they're going to have to move Marleau +++++ to clear cap room...

Here is the kicker, if Shanahan/Dubas signs Nylander to a contract extension then Toronto won't have enough cap space to get BOTH Tavares & Marner extensions before July 1st 2019 which will make one of them (Marner) open to an offer-sheet.

The logistics are going to be pretty intense.

The Leafs are going to have to dump a few contracts at next summers draft and you better believe GM's are going to take advantage of that..

The Leafs are going to be in profound "cap hell" next summer..... I mean that's the worst I've ever seen and I'm a Hawks fan so I know what "cap hell" looks like, lol..
Jul 18, 2018 at 8:34
#20
HawksFan28
Joined: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,073
Likes: 134
Quoting: tmljk22
I found this article on Twitter...

https://editorinleaf.com/2018/07/13/toronto-maple-leafs-auston-matthews-70-goals/

I don’t believe this will happen, though if it did, how much would Matthews be worth?


If Matthews scores 70 goals he's getting 15 million a season..

Funny, obviously Leafs fans want to see the Leafs do well and their young players succeed - however the better they do the more they will demand... So If Matthews scores 65-70 goals he will get the maximum a player can get paid, if Marner puts up a ppg he's going to get paid 8.5 easily..

Toronto is going to have a real problem.
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Jul 18, 2018 at 9:42
#21
tmljk22
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 139
Likes: 60
Quoting: HawksFan28
If Matthews scores 70 goals he's getting 15 million a season..

Funny, obviously Leafs fans want to see the Leafs do well and their young players succeed - however the better they do the more they will demand... So If Matthews scores 65-70 goals he will get the maximum a player can get paid, if Marner puts up a ppg he's going to get paid 8.5 easily..

Toronto is going to have a real problem.


Ngl I’m not looking forward to next summer
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Jul 18, 2018 at 10:37
#22
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 30,527
Likes: 7,531
Only in LeafLand is having too many players a problem. No having too many bad players making too much is a problem. Too many good players deserving of fair contracts and if that puts you over the cap, yes you might have to trade one or two. But you want get good value in return.
toronto67 liked this.
Aug 6, 2018 at 10:17
#23
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 1,873
Likes: 163
Quoting: DoctorBreakfast
Pittsburgh proved that you don't need to have a stellar blue line in order to win, and they did it two years in a row. You just need good goal-scoring (which they have) and a hot goaltender; Andersen is good enough to where he can steal games for them.

Even Vegas and Washington didn't have exceptionally strong blue lines; no clear number one defenseman, but they played in a good system and worked well as a unit.

(btw, you're not fooling anyone, we all know it's you Paul)


They don't have Crosby and Malkin….. I thought Babcock was brought in to put a "system" in place???? Same old run and gun offence with no defence.....

Leafs will be great in regular season. They will falter again in post-season...… when it really matters.....
Aug 23, 2018 at 9:42
#24
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 1,873
Likes: 163
Quoting: ILoveTheLeafs
Hi, I see people are worried about the Leafs ability to stay under the cap. It won't be an issue this year but will be in 19-20 when Matthews and Marner's new salaries kick in.
I made an attempt to see if they can keep all 4 in 19-20 (Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Tavares).

First, the cap is about 80M this year, I predicted 82.5M in 19-20. As you can see, the Leafs can stay under the cap providing they do a couple of small moves. They would need to buy out Marleau after this coming year and they could only keep one of Gardiner or Hainsey on D, but they can do it. Here is what it would look like.
Forwards (14) Salary (Millions) in 19-20
Matthews $12.00 Estimate
Tavares $11.00
Marner $8.00 Estimate
Nylander $6.50 Estimate
Kadri $4.50
Hyman $2.25
Brown $2.10
Kapanen $1.75 Estimate
Johnsson $1.25 Estimate
Leivo $1.00 Estimate
Lindholm $0.93 Estimate
Gauthier $0.93 Estimate
Grundstrom/Aaltonen $0.93 Estimate
Mueller/Moore $0.93 Estimate
Total $ spent on forwards $54.05

Defence (7)
Reilly $5.00
Zaitsev $4.50
Gardiner or Hainsey $4.00 Estimate
Carrick $1.25 Estimate
Liljegren/Rosen $0.90
Dermott $0.88
Marincin/Holl/Borgman $0.80
Total $ spent on defencemen $17.33

Goalie (2)
Anderson $5.00
Sparks/Picard $0.80 Estimate
Total $ spent on defencemen $5.80

Other
Kessel $1.20
Marleau - cost to buyout of last year of contract $2.08

19-20 Cap Estimate $82.50
Total Cap Used $80.46
Cap Available $2.04 Under Cap
Am I far off? It just shows they can do it, buying out a 39 year old Marleau from the last year of his contract adds 4M space to the cap. The forward group here is very strong but as you can see, the defence is young.

Am I far off? Please feel free to comment.


You haven't improved defence. Only way Leafs can go deep in playoffs is if they IMPROVE defence!! When will Leaf fans start to understand this???
Aug 23, 2018 at 10:59
#25
Habs/Pens fan
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 838
Likes: 259
Quoting: TheTown
You haven't improved defence. Only way Leafs can go deep in playoffs is if they IMPROVE defence!! When will Leaf fans start to understand this???


By doing what?
 
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