Edited Jul. 10, 2018 at 9:48 p.m.
Edit: I'm honored you would ask. I typed up a response, but I was thinking of someone else. I'll get back to you.....
Edit again: Okay... Here goes.... Coyle's good for up to ten more goals a year, and likely has a lower cap hit, but only gets half as many hits and isn't a fighter, so they should take this deal if they can replace Tom WIlson's toughness somewhere else. I don't think their AHL tough guys are ready to move up, and Komarov signed with NYI for 3M... (I don't think I've written a Wilson trade this year without signing Komarov, who gets similar offensive stats to Coyle, and as many hits as WIlson, but is only six feet tall. Also a bit older... whatever... kind of a blend of Wilson and Coyle. Coyle's stat sheet reads more like Burakovsky with the benefit of more ice time and occasional power plays).
I think Matt Read and Cody Franson, between them, in the amount they get into the lineup, could replace the remaining parts of Wilson's toughness; Franson by being 6'6" and hitting a fair amount, and Read by being willing to fight anyone, and having at least some chance of winning. I think those two guys could sit in the press box most of the year and then come down out of it if the Caps draw the Islanders or Flyers in the playoffs and need some muscle. Or if they don't predict the Isles and Flyers both making the playoffs, then maybe they hope to not face either, and are okay to move on. I predict both will be there, on the strength of a lot of good veterans, a lot of good prospects, and a lot of tough checking.
So I don't think Tom WIlson is irreplaceable, but it's harder at this time of the year, and when you're taking three roster spots to replace him, it's kind of not as good, because at that point you can't go out and lowball Rick Nash anymore, because the budget is (still) blown.
Of course, I don't have any clue what they're thinking of paying Wilson. If he's asking 5M, and Minnesota wants to make that trade, it's possible Washington considers it.... but Wilson, as a 24 year old RFA, is worth a lot more in trade than Coyle, with two years left before hititng UFA. Like, he likely signs for three times as long, so a team that wants a guy like either would see more value in having WIlson around for six years than in having Coyle around just for two, even if Coyle's broken the 20 goal mark, and Wilson hasn't.
Also, top line Stephenson isn't likely. Maybe Connolly moves up there, or DSP, or Vrana. Since all four of those guys' contracts have one year left, and two will be UFAs, keeping any of them after they score twenty goals on the top line negates any salary cap savings you get from trading Wilson, so it really only makes sense if the Caps then sign Rick Nash for one year, as a placeholder in Wilson's spot..
I'd trade Wilson for Eric Staal, though... and happily throw in that 2nd round pick requested above, on the condition that he signs an extension before reaching UFA.
I hope the Caps bring up Coyle's contract as a comp to keep Wilson from pushing them up close to the cap ceiling. Just because there is cap space doesn't mean he personally earned all of it with a 32 point season and a ton of big hits.