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Winnipeg Jets signed Connor Hellebuyck (6 Years / $6,166,666 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Jul 12 at 10:04 AM
#1
Connor Hellebuyck has signed a new contract with the Winnipeg Jets.
STANDARD CONTRACT
COMPARE THIS CONTRACT
LENGTH: 6 YEARS
EXPIRY STATUS: UFA
SIGNING TEAM: Winnipeg Jets
VALUE: $37,000,000
C.H.% : 7.76
SIGNING DATE: July 12, 2018
SOURCE: CapFriendly
SEASONCLAUSECAP HIT AAV P. BONUSES S. BONUSES BASE SALARY TOTAL SALARY MINORS SALARY
2018-19$6,166,666$6,166,666$0$0$7,000,000$7,000,000$7,000,000
2019-20$6,166,666$6,166,666$0$0$6,000,000$6,000,000$6,000,000
2020-21$6,166,666$6,166,666$0$0$4,500,000$4,500,000$4,500,000
2021-22$6,166,666$6,166,666$0$0$7,500,000$7,500,000$7,500,000
2022-23$6,166,666$6,166,666$0$0$4,500,000$4,500,000$4,500,000
2023-24$6,166,666$6,166,666$0$0$7,500,000$7,500,000$7,500,000
TOTAL$36,999,996$36,999,996$0$0$37,000,000$37,000,000$37,000,000
Jul 12 at 10:07 AM
#2
Jetsfan
Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 671
Likes: 86
Right where analysts said he would be...As a Jets fan, I was hoping for a little less.smile
Jul 12 at 10:32 AM
#3
J.L.
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 90
Likes: 15
My guess was 7x7 but maybe he would have needed another strong season to make bigger money. Some were giving him 5 or even 4 million which was unrealistic tbh.
Jul 12 at 11:21 AM
#4
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 25
Likes: 8
Goalies are so hard to value properly. Considering he was coming off a year finishing second in Vezina voting, I think they did a good job of keeping it reasonable.
RedDevils24 and Hockeylover360 liked this.
Jul 12 at 11:28 AM
#5
4th Line Battler
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 69
Likes: 53
I think this is a good signing in terms of AAV for the Jets. Locking up a goalie can have risks but the security of knowing their #1 guy for the next 6 is worth it imo
Jul 12 at 1:12 PM
#6
mothariah
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 149
Likes: 50
Makes him the 6th highest paid goaltender in the NHL. I would agree that peak versions of Carey Price, Henrik Lundqvist, Pekka Rinne, Sergei Bobrovsky, and Tuukka Rask are better goalies than Hellybuyck right now. And I would also argue that Braden Holtby (7) and Marc-Andre Fluery (12) were better at their peak than Hellybuyck.

But the kid is 25, and will probably get better over the first part of this deal. Good value. I look at the Holtby contract, which is the best comparable. I think Holtby was at a similar spot in his career when he signed his deal, and while the numbers are similar, the cap percentages favor the Jets deal. Good for me on both sides.
Clubkid75 liked this.
Jul 12 at 1:36 PM
#7
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 374
Likes: 39
Overpaid
Reeds77 liked this.
Jul 12 at 2:41 PM
#8
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 164
Likes: 41
Too much. Jonathan Quick had three 30+ win seasons, a Stanley Cup, and a Conn Smythe trophy and he signed for less than $6M. Hellebuyck has had one quality season in his career and didn't even carry his team to the Finals. Sure, he could turn into the next Henrik Lundqvist, but he could also be the next Cristobal Huet. Shoulda bridged him for one more year. He would have been a RFA at the end of next season and then you can be sure this season wasn't a fluke. Then you can give him his payday.
Jul 12 at 2:51 PM
#9
Jetsfan
Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 671
Likes: 86
Quoting: tkecanuck341
Too much. Jonathan Quick had three 30+ win seasons, a Stanley Cup, and a Conn Smythe trophy and he signed for less than $6M. Hellebuyck has had one quality season in his career and didn't even carry his team to the Finals. Sure, he could turn into the next Henrik Lundqvist, but he could also be the next Cristobal Huet. Shoulda bridged him for one more year. He would have been a RFA at the end of next season and then you can be sure this season wasn't a fluke. Then you can give him his payday.


Hellebuyck had a bit of control here. He may have said no to the idea of another one year contract. Also, If Holtby, Crawford or Quick signed this year, they would be getting 6.5 or more.
Jul 12 at 2:59 PM
#10
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 164
Likes: 41
Quoting: dcc94
Hellebuyck had a bit of control here. He may have said no to the idea of another one year contract. Also, If Holtby, Crawford or Quick signed this year, they would be getting 6.5 or more.


I agree that they all would have gotten similar money contracts now, but my point was that the guys you mentioned all had more extensive (impressive?) resumes than Hellebuyck does, and had proven that they could continue their impressive play over multiple seasons. Crawford & Quick both had Stanley Cups, and Holtby had three quality seasons under his belt. There's been way too many one-and-done goaltenders in the NHL to make giving a goaltender with one successful season a long-term, big money contract.
Jul 12 at 3:02 PM
#11
Jetsfan
Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 671
Likes: 86
Quoting: tkecanuck341
I agree that they all would have gotten similar money contracts now, but my point was that the guys you mentioned all had more extensive (impressive?) resumes than Hellebuyck does, and had proven that they could continue their impressive play over multiple seasons. Crawford & Quick both had Stanley Cups, and Holtby had three quality seasons under his belt. There's been way too many one-and-done goaltenders in the NHL to make giving a goaltender with one successful season a long-term, big money contract.


I agree with you but the main thing here is that Hellebuyck had some say in this by filing for salary arbitration. The Jets did not want to do a two year deal and potentially lose him
Jul 12 at 3:19 PM
#12
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 46
Likes: 3
Just makes Matt Murray at 3.75 that much better. Not saying its a gross over payment but 6.1 for 1 solid season.... I guess we will wait and see.
Jul 12 at 3:34 PM
#13
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 164
Likes: 41
Quoting: dcc94
I agree with you but the main thing here is that Hellebuyck had some say in this by filing for salary arbitration. The Jets did not want to do a two year deal and potentially lose him


By filing for arbitration, Hellebuyck ceded the authority to the Jets to elect the contract term.

"The party against whom a salary arbitration election was filed (i.e., the Club in Player-elected salary arbitration and the Player in Club-elected salary arbitration) shall elect in its brief whether the salary arbitration award shall be for a one or two-year SPC."

The Jets could have chosen a one-year contract and the arbiter would have given his award for a one year term. He would have been arbitration eligible again next summer, at which time the Jets could have given him his big payday. There was no risk of him getting awarded a two-year deal.
Jetman liked this.
Jul 12 at 4:20 PM
#14
Follow @capfriendly
Joined: Jan 1337
Posts: 1,426
Likes: 698
Quoting: Reeds77
Just makes Matt Murray at 3.75 that much better. Not saying its a gross over payment but 6.1 for 1 solid season.... I guess we will wait and see.


Murray is a RFA bridge and Hellebuyck they just bought 4 UFA years.
Jul 12 at 5:17 PM
#15
Coyotes GM V3
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 5,007
Likes: 932
Bargain signing for the Jets, this is going to play out great from them down the road.
weirfanno1 liked this.
Jul 12 at 5:23 PM
#16
Jetsfan
Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 671
Likes: 86
Quoting: Banks
Murray is a RFA bridge and Hellebuyck they just bought 4 UFA years.


Jets didn't want to do a bridge deal. Is Murray a RFA or UFA after this?
Jul 12 at 6:19 PM
#17
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 524
Likes: 94
Quoting: Daryl
Bargain signing for the Jets, this is going to play out great from them down the road.


Quoting: Reeds77
Just makes Matt Murray at 3.75 that much better. Not saying its a gross over payment but 6.1 for 1 solid season.... I guess we will wait and see.


Quoting: Trickster
Overpaid


This is a very POOR gamble from a risk / reward perspective.....

2016-17 SV% = 0.907 (below average)
2017-18 SV% = 0.924 (above average)

If they signed him to a 1 year contract & he had another Vezina quality year.....he'd would get around $7,000,000 x 6.
If they signed him to a 1 year contract & he had another below average year.....he'd would get around $3,000,000 x 3.
If they signed him to a 1 year contract & he had an extremely average year.....he'd would get around $4,000,000 x 4.

His current contract is a much bigger risk ($3,150,000 AAV) than a 1 year deal would have been ($800,000 AAV).
Jul 12 at 7:29 PM
#18
Habs/Pens fan
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 489
Likes: 96
Goalies are so inconsistent so it's hard to judge value, however he was 2nd in Vezina this season so yeah it's ok.
Jul 13 at 11:22 AM
#19
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 46
Likes: 3
Quoting: dcc94
Jets didn't want to do a bridge deal. Is Murray a RFA or UFA after this?


Makes sense I can see why they signed him to the deal. Doesn't mean it is a good deal though. Like I said I don't think its a major overpayment but I do think it is an overpayment to some extent.
Jul 13 at 11:28 AM
#20
Jetsfan
Joined: Sep 2017
Posts: 671
Likes: 86
Quoting: Reeds77
Makes sense I can see why they signed him to the deal. Doesn't mean it is a good deal though. Like I said I don't think its a major overpayment but I do think it is an overpayment to some extent.


This is the type of contract that we will know in two years if it was a good or bad one...smile If Hellebuyck has a few great seasons in a row, its going to be perfect....Hopefully no more 2017 seasons.
Reeds77 liked this.
Jul 13 at 11:36 AM
#21
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 46
Likes: 3
Quoting: dcc94
This is the type of contract that we will know in two years if it was a good or bad one...smile If Hellebuyck has a few great seasons in a row, its going to be perfect....Hopefully no more 2017 seasons.


For sure, even if he has 3-4 really good seasons and some average seasons it will be worth it.
Jul 13 at 12:06 PM
#22
Joined: Sep 2015
Posts: 31
Likes: 1
Quoting: tkecanuck341
Too much. Jonathan Quick had three 30+ win seasons, a Stanley Cup, and a Conn Smythe trophy and he signed for less than $6M. Hellebuyck has had one quality season in his career and didn't even carry his team to the Finals. Sure, he could turn into the next Henrik Lundqvist, but he could also be the next Cristobal Huet. Shoulda bridged him for one more year. He would have been a RFA at the end of next season and then you can be sure this season wasn't a fluke. Then you can give him his payday.


Quick has 7×7 deal ! The last 3 years were added to lower the cap hit
Jul 13 at 5:03 PM
#23
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 164
Likes: 41
Quoting: Teabagger
Quick has 7×7 deal ! The last 3 years were added to lower the cap hit


That's not the point. The point is that he didn't get a long-term, big money contract until he had 3 quality seasons, a Stanley Cup, and a Conn Smythe under his belt.

Quick had a cap hit of $1.8M at the same point of his career where Hellebuyck currently is.
Jul 13 at 5:07 PM
#24
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 164
Likes: 41
Quoting: drewjenks
This is a very POOR gamble from a risk / reward perspective.....

2016-17 SV% = 0.907 (below average)
2017-18 SV% = 0.924 (above average)

If they signed him to a 1 year contract & he had another Vezina quality year.....he'd would get around $7,000,000 x 6.
If they signed him to a 1 year contract & he had another below average year.....he'd would get around $3,000,000 x 3.
If they signed him to a 1 year contract & he had an extremely average year.....he'd would get around $4,000,000 x 4.

His current contract is a much bigger risk ($3,150,000 AAV) than a 1 year deal would have been ($800,000 AAV).


He would have made significantly more than $800k on a one-year deal, considering he just set the record for wins by an American goaltender and had stellar numbers. He had filed for arbitration and probably would have gotten a 1-year $2.5-3M contract.

I agree that signing a RFA goaltender with 2 years remaining of rights restriction and only one successful season thus far in the NHL to a long-term, big-money deal is a bad idea, but there's no way he would have been awarded only $800k by an arbiter.
Jul 13 at 8:07 PM
#25
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 524
Likes: 94
Edited Jul 13 at 8:13 PM
Quoting: tkecanuck341
He would have made significantly more than $800k on a one-year deal, considering he just set the record for wins by an American goaltender and had stellar numbers. He had filed for arbitration and probably would have gotten a 1-year $2.5-3M contract.

I agree that signing a RFA goaltender with 2 years remaining of rights restriction and only one successful season thus far in the NHL to a long-term, big-money deal is a bad idea, but there's no way he would have been awarded only $800k by an arbiter.


Come on man....I didn't say his 1 year deal would be $800,000 - I SAID THE RISK WAS $800,000 .

He just signed for approximately $6,200,000 AAV - so if he'd get a $7,000,000 AAV after having an amazing year on a bridge deal - than the risk is $800,000.

$7,000,000 (max AAV post-bridge deal) - $6,200,000 (the AAV he just got) = $800,000 (the risk of a bridge deal). And if he has a brutal year he'll get much less.

I didn't even mention the value of his bridge deal - if they could afford $6,200,000 this year - they could afford any lower bridge deal.
 
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