Nothing says cap management like giving a 4th liner $285,714.29 per goal he scores. Wilson is a valuable player but doesn't deserve more than 2.5 million a season. He's not a top 6 forward, he's a bottom 6 who can at times player higher up but he's best suited as a bottom 6 guy. Don't pay depth guys bigger money ever, if they want it, let them go.

Majority of the $285,714.29 is bonus laden for his accomplishment in scoring those goals. All seriousness I do agree that 4mill is an overpayment for him, but I'll be surprised if he comes in under 3.

every team in the league would give 4 mil to tom wilson.

Not true, only teams who have too much money and don't know how to manage it would give him that kind of money.

Tom Wilson was 28th in the NHL this past season in even strength points for right wingers. It's pretty clear that he's not a bottom six forward anymore. And his last contract he was paid 2 million per year, you really think after the jump in production he had during the regular season and playoffs he's only going to receive a half million dollar raise?

for real if buddy logan watched any of the caps playoff games you would know tom Wilson is worth the 4 mil.

Leo Komarov hits almost as much as Wilson, scores more goals, and gets more assists, and just signed fro 3Mx4 years. Matt Martin maxes out at 9 goals a year (to Wilson's 14) and at 382 hits to WIlson's 250, and at 147 PIM to Wilson's 187. The Sporting News makes it sound like Matt Martin is ridiculously overpaid at 2.5Mx4yrs (http://www.sportingnews.com/us/nhl/news/matt-martin-trade-details-contract-maple-leafs-islanders-cap-space-eamon-mcadamn/6598locztwm21gb115bljk4lb). Cal Clutterbuck maxes out at 356 hits, 103 PIM, and 19 goals, and is massively overpaid at 4M.

Anyone notice what the three forwards comparable to Tom Wilson have in common?


did you get it?



They all play for a team whose GM hasn't been a GM in the last five years, and hasn't GMed a team to the playoffs in a fair bit longer than that. The league has changed. There are not 31 teams who would pay Tom Wilson $4M a year. There is one, and it probably won't make the playoffs for a couple years. If it does, the Caps will want to have Wilson and Orpik back to fight off all of its goons, sure, but if not, they'll feel silly spending a combined $5M on muscle to beat just the Islanders, and possibly some of the Flyers' nastier defensemen, depending who even makes their team out of camp.

The Caps already pay TJ Oshie to be their #1 Right Wing forever. Oshie is still way ahead of Wilson in minutes, goals, assists, points, power plays, skills, ability to find the puck in traffic or in the corners, ability to pass the puck to whoever he's playing with. The team spread out its offense by putting its 1LW with one of its #1 centers and its 1RW with its other #1 center. That led to opportunities for middle six guys like Burakovsky, Wilson and Vrana, and a clear fourth liner like Stephenson even to move up and play shifts with "top line guys," but top line status isn't really something you get by proxy, just by being around the top guys, any more than the panhandler outside of the Microsoft headquarters can fix your laptop (okay. He probably can. I mean, it's Seattle, now, and laptop parts are getting more and more standardized every year. Bad example). I disagree with calling Wilson a fourth liner, because at 24 he's finally broken ten goals and 30 points. But he's not a top line player because his even strength points per sixty were barely in the top 200 forwards in the league, even though he played with the best left wing and one of the best centers in the league for half the season. There are 31 teams, and six forwards who fit on their first or second line. That means there are 186 top six forwards. Tom Wilson wasn't one of them, but he's a darn good third line wing, and I'm fine with the team paying him as much as Komarov, if they're reasonably hopeful they can keep him on the top line and get a few more seasons with more than ten goals out of him.

Of course, if you look at just points, out of all forwards, he's 175th, which makes hims the 11th worst top six offensive forward in the NHL. He had one more point than Ryan Strome who just signed for 3.1Mx2years. Of course he also had one more point than Lucic or Pominville, and two more than Bobby Ryan, but I think we can agree that those players are not playing up to the value of their current contracts, and are paid for past 30 goal seasons that they are unlikely to repeat. Wilson's best goal scoring season, again, was this year, when he got 14 of the things, even with Ovechkin and Kuznetsov setting him up. I think a Strome cap hit is fine, even though Strome played with weaker linemates. Going up to 3.5 is possible to buy a few years of UFA and make it more likely that he plays his whole career in Washington, where he helps the team show the fans a connection to this year's Cup win, but they have younger guys with their names on the Cup in Djoos, Burakovsky, and Vrana, who will all hopefully play another decade plus in Washington, unless of course there isn't enough cap space because they overpaid Tom Wilson.

Oh, btw, good team. I'd still add a right handed scrub on defense, but that can be a waiver claim during training camp. Doesn't have to be a big splashy UFA, because there are so few left that there's almost no bargaining power if you go in with a goal of definitely getting Cody Franson, who played last year in the AHL, and would likely spend most of this year in the press box. Obviously long term, Lewington or Williams is likely to play a bit with the Caps, but if they have an injury to Carlson or Niskanen this year, it might be neat to still have their shots balanced.

Wilson had a terrific playoffs. He was fourth in goals among right wings on the Capitals, behind TJ Oshie, Devante Smith-Pelly, and Brett Connolly. http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&gameType=3&position=R&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=goals

He was on the top line to spread the offense. He is not a first line winger. He is no longer a fourth line winger either, on an average team, but he's really on the line between being a second or third line guy. Eller contributed more offense in the regular season and the playoffs with much, much worse linemates and tougher zone starts. The absolute ceiling on Wilson's contract is Eller's contract.

Centres are worth more than wingers, so while I agree with all you said, I will say that Ellers should make about a 3rd more than Wilson just because he's a centre.

I do watch the caps often enough and Wilson is what he is. A big hitting aggressive winger who can skate very well for a bigger man but has very limited skill. Zack Hyman is a more versatile skater who plays on the top 2 lines in TO and makes 2.25 million. Wilson shouldn't be making more than Hyman, he contributes less to his teams success.

Read what Eli mentioned in this thread. Komarov for 4x3 is a joke of a contract and he's really no different than Wilson. A grinder who hits but is a good enough skater to play with fast skilled guys. Doesn't mean Komorov is a top 6 forward.

dont compare leo komorov and tom wilson man. like really. komorov hits yes but wilson will kill you and thats the difference. komorov wears defense out while wilson takes them out in the first game of a series. the intagibles to wilsons game are what make him way better then these othes citied. ELI compared matt martin to tom wilson. matt martin cant even skate.

you can say all you want but 4 mil per year for a 24 year old like tom wilson. you wont be disappointed.

Matt Martin can indeed skate, and well. He's not a detriment to any team but he can't kill penalties and on a team like TO, they come at you with 3 super fast skill lines and a 4th line that would likely still be a skill line on most teams. Martin isn't a skill guy and thats why he isn't in TO anymore. When you can play someone like Kapanen or Johnsson on the 4th line, you don't need these other guys. Also Wilson's hits that take people out are questionable. He's looking to hurt people and that isn't a good thing for hockey.

most of wilsons checks are clean. yes a few a def questionable but he doesnt get the benefit of the doubt anymore. when he hits he hits so hard it looks dirty when its probably not. that aston reese hit was clean in my eyes but because he got blown up so bad he got suspended.

Can he change a tire?
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/751950-brooks-laich-re-signing-the-capitals-keep-a-key-player-in-their-lineup

Matt Martin highlight reel (amateur, have to skip the first minute to get past photo montage) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fP6QJOoM7cs
Guy could totally work on his skating, on offense. Just kind of glides to the net with his stick on the ice, and sometimes guys bounce pucks in off of him. Will totally hit you and fight you. All the time. Is big and mean. Fights actual tough guys.

Tom Wilson highlight reel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x52Z8dG-QJM
Scores on the rush. Can set up a screen, but likes to actually create offense, skating quickly right down the middle of the ice, like Ovechkin but without all the skill. A good complimentary player to work with Ovechkin and double down on the idea of a big guy rushing the puck at the the net (when Ovi still does that... also, Burakovsky needs to do more of that, too). Definitely faster and more skilled than Matt Martin, but somehow Martin comes up with 130 more hits a year. Wilson's highlight reel has him fighting Anders Lee, which is quite an accomplishment because, win or lose, Lee has to sit out five minutes.

Wilson's offense still could be more creative. it's just speed and size and hoping that turns into something. In the playoffs he made one awesome back pass to Kuznetsov for a give and go that he finished pretty well. Other people claim to see flashes, too. But I saw flashes of exceptionality out of Brooks Laich, who could really rush the puck past the crowd in his first couple seasons, could play any position, and who actually had three seasons above 20 goals and two seasons above 50 points (https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/l/laichbr01.html). Tom Wilson could, as a ceiling, be as good of an offensive player as Brooks Laich. Paying him 4M until he's 31 is not as bad as Laich's last contract, but it's not terribly exciting.


I disagree that centers get more salary for the same achievements. I just think teams have more good players listed as centers right now, and good players earn more. Tom Wilson's 35 points were 44th on the right wing, and 35 points would have also been 44th on the left wing. But the 44th center in points, Paul Stastny, had 53 points, about 50% more than Wilson. If Wilson played center he would have been 92nd in points among centers, so..... just about the worst 3C in the league.

You come down a couple spots and you get to Boone Jenner who usually plays wing, usually outscores Wilson, and injured Burakovsky in the playoffs, causing him to miss twelve games. Burakovsky is not a little guy. Boone Jenner has had a 30 goal season, and now makes 4M a year. Boone Jenner started 17.6% more of his shifts in the defensive zone than Tom Wilson last year, but there was only a 3.9% difference in their corsi. Wilson got 45 more hits this year, but Jenner blocked 32 more shots. Wilson dished a lot of hard hits in the playoffs but fortunately didn't injure anybody in the Columbus series, that I remember. Jenner also has four seasons above ten goals, to Wilson's one, although he is almost a whole year older.

Paying Tom Wilson more than Matt Martin is fine. Martin has never broken ten goals and hasn't really progressed offensively since juniors. Paying 14 goal scorer and crushing checker Tom Wilson as much as 30 goal scorer and crushing checker Boone Jenner makes is ridiculous, unless Ovechkin says it'll cause him to stick around longer. If it's just for Wilson, 3M should be enough for right now and about four years into the future. 3.5M for six or seven years.

Komarov is a bit smaller, but has put up 19 goals, 36 points and 283 hits in a season, two years ago. I think he's a pretty solid comparable. Wilson is younger and could theoretically improve, but so far Komarov is better than him. Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mOENwKQNyo
Komarov can score on the rush or with a one timer the same as Wilson. He can absolutely freight train guys with their head down, about like Wilson. But watch at 1:28, for the behind the back, through the legs assist that Wilson doesn't think of, just yet. They definitely each have some different strengths and weaknesses, but Leo Komarov is a pretty close comparable player to Tom Wilson (https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/k/komarle01.html). I'd love to see Wilson signed at 21 over 7. Whether Komarov is overpaid or not, that's the current price on that combination of grit and speed.

The NHL lists a lot of right wings as centers. Usually the best guy on a junior team plays center, so that guy gets drafted, and moved to the wing. The NHL lists 275 centers last year, but only 142 right wings. http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&gameType=2&position=R&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points Scroll down to "records returned"

So even though Tom Wilson was 44th in points among listed right wings, good for 2nd liner money, he's 175th in points by a forward (http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&gameType=2&position=F&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points). If there are 93 1st line forwards and 93 2nd line forwards, Tom Wilson's offensive totals, whle playing with Ovechkin and Kuznetsov, were 175th out of 186 top six forwards. There were 11 2nd line forwards with fewer points than Wilson. Now, if there were a dozen top six forwards in the NHL who got less than 35 points due to injury or inexplicable coaches' decisions (cough cough Bura-Cough-sky), then maybe Tom Wilson is still a 3rd line forward.

I think Wilson, like Kempny, is someone who can be a complimentary player with some of the best players in the world, which does take a lot of skill, but each has yet to prove he's able to drive play on his own. If he makes $3M a year, that's great for him. If he makes $4M a year, that's not so great for the Caps and they might as well try to trade him, plus, for a young 30 goal scorer who helps with puck possession like Zucker.

Again, I'm talking even strength numbers seeing as Wilson gets no power play time. He had 1 power play point and 1 short handed point which leaves him tied for 121st in even strength points among all forwards. This ties him with the likes of Coyle, PLD, and Henrik Sedin. Which is clearly in the top 6 forward range.

Wilson isn't ever going to be the guy that carries a line. He doesn't need to be either. He is so incredibly effective in his role and complements more skilled players with his skating and physical presence. And you can't just judge every player by their statistics. I've watched Kozlov, Semin, Knuble, and so many other wingers put up bigger numbers than Wilson while playing with Ovechkin. None have been as effective as Wilson, especially when it matters in the playoffs. Wilson is going to get his money, and he deserves every penny.

And I think a lot of us are forgetting, he's 24 years old and still getting better. To think this is where he tops out offensively is just silly.

Not saying he should get paid 4 mil. but he will, that is just how the NHL works. Especially after he played a significant role in winning a Stanley Cup....

That's how poor GM's work in the NHL, a smart man would trade Wilson if he asks for anything over 3. If he asked for 3 I'd offer 2 and meet somewhere in between. That is a very fair deal for what he offers. Anything more and that will be a terrible contract.

I keep pencilling him in at 3x7 years. He does compliment Ovechkin pretty well because both of them hit a lot. I think Knuble and Brouwer were equally effective in that role, and there are a dozen guys in the NHL who could be, too. I think Soshnikov hits almost as much, per minute, and speaks Russian and had only one point after he was claimed off waivers last year, and the Caps should totally trade Barber to St. Louis for him (maybe even get St. L. to throw in a prospect), and give him an audition in Wilson's spot. I think adding Kozlov or Fedorov or Semin to Ovechkin's line was incredibly effective because he could talk to them better than he could to other linemates. Guys like Knuble, Oshie, Laich, and Wilson overcome the need for communication by just going to the net and waiting for a pass or a rebound, or digging the puck out of the corners, but when Ovechkin plays with Russian speakers, his on ice communication improves and his offensive creativity improves. Kuznetsov might see a similar bump in his effectiveness if they are able to add a Russian speaking grinder to their line.

That's going to put Tom Wilson back in the middle six somewhere. He's probably not going to slot ahead of TJ Oshie, who works really well with Nick Backstrom, so that puts Tom Wilson back in the bottom six, where he will continue to not get power play time, but will also get less even strength time, and get passes from the likes of Brett Connolly, Lars Eller, and Andre Burakovsky. Those guys are very good, but they're not good enough to keep Tom WIlson above thirty points in limited ice time. Paying him $4M a year for life because he was the best option on the team for Ovechkin's right wing this year, or because he was the kind of guy Trotz wanted on the top line, is going to make it harder to maintain a good defense and a great goalie, which are bigger ingredients in a championship team than finding the right grinder to get pucks out of the corners on the top line.

Tom Wilson is an incredibly good role player and he can be very effective on that top line, but I still don't get how the team never gave Stan Galiev an extended look in that spot. He was pretty good there, too, and was just 4th overall in KHL playoff points this year, without playing with Ovechkin or Kuznetsov. He actually led his team in playoff points. So I think Galiev is the best guy the Caps have NHL rights to as far as 1R with Ovechkin/Kuznetsov, but if he's not coming back, or if you need someone who puts up two hits a game, then I think Soshnikov gives Wilson a run for his money (and I know, Wilson gets three hits per game, but it's in 50% more ice time than Soshnikov gets two hits per game, so they each get a hit every five minutes of ice time, which means they each can get a puck back out of the corners for Ovechkin once a period, and that will get each of them a couple assists. The difference is that Soshnikov can yell, "I got it! Go to the net!," and have only the right people understand him.

Basically, it does make sense to pay someone a lot of money if they do well on the top line and then to keep them there for a long time. The Caps did that last summer with TJ Oshie, right? Oshie slumped at midseason, Wilson stepped in and managed a 2nd line level of offense while playing with two elite offensive players. He is not as good at scoring goals as Leo Komarov or Boone Jenner.

The Caps paid Laich extra for being the nice guy who always went out of his way to make time for fans, even stopping on the side of the road to change their tires. Tom Wilson is the opposite. He's a tough guy on the ice, who understands hockey, but off the ice if a reporter asks him if he feels bad about an opponent getting hurt after he hit them, he's stumped. The guy needs to spend the summer watching press conferences with a PR expert and talking through how to at least fake compassion if he can't pull off the real thing, or he's going to turn into a PR nightmare for the team, and they're going to end up having to trade him at a loss. If the Caps want to give a 4M for life contract to someone who can score goals on Kuznetsov's line, they already have Andre Burakovsky, who also has yet to audition on that top line, partly because he was doing so well on the second line with Backstrom that he was playing over twenty minutes a night to start the playoffs. Wilson's game is so much about hard hits that he is not likely to get up to that kind of ice time, and giving Wilson a contract that causes the team to lose Burakovsky or Vrana or Djoos next summer would be a miscalculation.

@LoganOllivier Hey