Quoting: steveospeak
Oh I'm not a Minnesota fan at all. I don't see Koivu being added to the deal as making it better for the Wild. Yes he's old, but he's still productive with 58 and 45 points the past two years. If Minnesota traded him they'd then have a hole at center and lessening the chance of contending during Niskanen's window. I don't think Koivu has a ton of trade value b/c at any time he can fall off, but he's still a productive player on the top 2 lines and I don't know if Minnesota can easily replace him.
I personally wouldn't want to sign Wilson long term, what are the odds that he can meet/improve on his offensive production. Going long term with him is risky (even assuming he'd want to), b/c he might be the next Cal Clutterbuck. Are Islander's fans thrilled that he's eating $3.5M a year, I don't really think so. He's a guy I'd want to go year-to-year with b/c his value is going to fluctuate, esp. if he keeps getting suspended and taking bad penalties. I'm not sure if that is true that he was 44th among RW in point production, but I know the Wild probably have 3 guys ahead of him slated for the RW, in Zucker, Granlund and Coyle. Maybe they decide to play one of those on the LW, but the point is Wilson doesn't really "fill a need".
Look I think Niskanen is still a really good defenseman, and there is no doubt he was clutch in the SC run, but the reality is during the regular season last year both his point production and possession numbers fell. And now you are acquiring him for his age 32nd-34th seasons, odds are he continues to slip. Not to the point of being deadweight like an Orpik, but where the difference between him and Dumba becomes very noticeable. Add in the two extra years of Dumba and that is a ton of value that needs to be made up. Wilson's 2 years don't do much for me, I think you can acquire a lot of what he brings to the table for a lot cheaper (both in terms of trade value and salary). So I'd want some serious picks and/or prospects if I'm the Wild.
If you took Dumba's age, production, potential, contract and years of control he's got to be up there in terms of general trade value.
Okay.... if you didn't know that Wilson was 44th in points among right wings, and is 24 years old, then your dismissive attitude toward his trade value makes sense. He is (
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&gameType=2&position=R&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,goals,assists) and he only got one of his points on the power play. At even strength, he's 28th among right wings (
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpoints&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&gameType=2&position=R&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evPoints,points), and still, 24 years old and an RFA. And yes, he's as tough as Clutterbuck and has as much offensive potential as Clutterbuck started with. Clutterbuck didn't pan out offensively for the Isles. With Trotz at head coach, though, he'll certainly get better linemates and more offensive zone start than he's been getting, and pick things up a bit. If the Wild make a blockbuster trade to make him a big part of their future, I'm assuming they add him to at least their second power play unit, and he ends up with forty points a year until he's over thirty.
I agree that Dumba has a lot of trade value. A whole lot. I think Niskanen and Dumba are each #1 defensemen. Dumba is eight years younger. Koivu and WIlson are each about 2nd line forwards. Wilson had three more even strength points last year, 199 more hits, almost 100 more penalty minutes, and is ten years younger. Koivu fell off in faceoffs last year to 51.4%. The Caps got better numbers last year from Backstrom, Burakovsky, Vrana, and presumptive 4C Chandler Stephenson (54.8%). Lars Eller had an off year on faceoffs, but brings more offense in less ice time than Koivu. Kuznetsov needs to work on his faceoffs. One could argue that someone should pinch hit for him on draws after he won 44% last year, but he's almost a decade younger than Koivu, and improving, and the Caps also have centers Nic Dowd and Travis Boyd under contract. So I disagree with your assertion that Koivu carries significant positive value here. He's a fine throw-in, but the total cap hit coming to Washington ends up around 11M. The Wild get back less than 10M. Swapping a top pair defender and a 2nd line forward for the same, while getting an average of 1.5 year younger and 1M cheaper on each player is going to make the offer pretty tempting.
It's like for like at each spot. The Caps get 7 more even strength points, but 3 total years older, and 2M more expensive. That means they end up losing some players next summer, or trading Koivu at a loss next summer to have room to keep guys. Do they still need to throw in a pick to get it done? A prospect? Who? How about Colby Williams and a 2nd?