Who adds what?
Joined: Jul. 2017
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Skinner tops out at 20 even strength goals. Burakovsky tops out at 17. Since the Caps' top power play hasn't changed in three years and is doing pretty well, they don't need to trade for guys that get ten power play goals. Skinner wouldn't get that opportunity in Washington. I think the Caps could add more offense by signing Chris Stewart for one year at 1M and playing him in their top nine than by making the above trade.
Burakovsky doesn't have to double his goal production to equal what Skinner would do in just 17 minutes of even strength in Washington. He just has to add 3 to 5 even strength goals to what he's been doing. At 24, if he keeps improving his conditioning, and if the departure of Trotz means he stops being a healthy scratch, he'll get the same 20 ESG next year as Skinner, at a lower cap hit, and then you've still got that first round pick, plus RFA rights to a guy who scores as many goals in Washington and costs less to sign. The above trade isn't just a win for Carolina. It's a loss for the Caps.
Adding Paul Byron, who also gets 20 ESG a year, without losing Burakovsky, would add a ton of offense. Adding Anders Lee would be interesting because he got 25 even strength goals each of the last couple years. Maybe trade NYI a 2nd for Brock Nelson.
Burakovsky is almost as good as Skinner at the role available with the Caps, and because of his age, cap hit, and RFA status next summer, he is individually more valuable to the Capitals than Skinner. I really believe that a coaching change gets Burakovsky to 20 ESG, the same as Skinner's career best, but that Burakovsky then has better odds of signing at 5 years x 4M, or of being traded for a first pick, whereas Skinner costs at least twice that, and definitely walks for nothing.
I think the Caps might contend again next year, or, the way they've been drinking this summer, they might have a hangover year and miss the playoffs, so trading that pick now to add three to five even strength goals, and get someone who is just as much not going to crack that top power play unit as Burakovsky is going to hurt the team for a decade, with possibly no gain.