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Forums/Armchair-GM

Panarin Problem Solved

Created by: Cyras
Team: 2018-19 Columbus Blue Jackets
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 26, 2018
Published: Jul. 27, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$2,000,000
Trades
CBJ
  1. Montour, Brandon
Additional Details:
Rights to RFA Nick Ritchie
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2019
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2020
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2021
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$79,500,000$63,071,665$0$3,932,500$16,428,335
Left WingCentreRight Wing
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LW
UFA - 3
$894,166$894,166 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
C
UFA - 2
$5,875,000$5,875,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 7
$1,375,000$1,375,000
LW, C, RW
NMC
UFA - 3
$4,900,000$4,900,000
C
UFA - 5
$2,500,000$2,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 3
$3,750,000$3,750,000
C, LW
UFA - 4
$2,750,000$2,750,000
C, RW
UFA - 3
$1,850,000$1,850,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
LW, RW
UFA - 1
$5,850,000$5,850,000
C, LW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 3
$650,000$650,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
$730,833$730,833 (Performance Bonus$182,500$182K)
LW
RFA - 3
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LD
UFA - 1
$5,400,000$5,400,000
RD
UFA - 4
$7,425,000$7,425,000
G
NMC
UFA - 1
$2,700,000$2,700,000
LD/RD
UFA - 4
$3,387,500$3,387,500
RD
UFA - 2
$900,000$900,000
G
UFA - 1
$2,825,000$2,825,000
LD
UFA - 1
$1,062,500$1,062,500
RD
UFA - 3

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Jul. 27, 2018 at 10:13 a.m.
#1
Sam
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I like this concept a lot, but maybe you could try to get Steel as well.
Jul. 27, 2018 at 10:18 a.m.
#2
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Cyras
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The Ducks would never part with Steel as he is their future number 1 C and if anything Max Jones would be the prospect out the door. But I don't think anything else needs to be added to this, considering that Panarin is set to become a UFA and the Blue Jackets get a quality top 4 RHD and solid power forward LW who is NHL ready and not in his prime yet.
Jul. 27, 2018 at 10:29 a.m.
#3
Wannabe Leafs GM
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Quoting: Cyras
The Ducks would never part with Steel as he is their future number 1 C and if anything Max Jones would be the prospect out the door. But I don't think anything else needs to be added to this, considering that Panarin is set to become a UFA and the Blue Jackets get a quality top 4 RHD and solid power forward LW who is NHL ready and not in his prime yet.


I feel like you would have to add a conditional pick if Pan resigns. Montour will be a solid 1/2 RHD sure, but Pan is a gaming breaking offensive threat. You have to add more value.

*In my opinion
Jul. 27, 2018 at 11:36 a.m.
#4
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Quoting: Davisoc
I feel like you would have to add a conditional pick if Pan resigns. Montour will be a solid 1/2 RHD sure, but Pan is a gaming breaking offensive threat. You have to add more value.

*In my opinion


I agree with the assessment above.
Steel would be the ask from Jarmo.
The Jackets already have the power forward in Foligno, Anderson, Jenner, etc.
They also obtained the skill/finesse gamebreaker in Panarin.
They would either look to replace him with the same type player (albeit younger) or to fill Center position for depth.
Those are the 2 needs the Jackets would look to fill.
Acknowledging that they lose a bit of leverage in the whole situation, but still do have some leverage in still controlling his rights and could still play the "desired teams" against each other.
At some point, it will become clear who really is willing to pay the highest value for Panarin to sign long term.
At the end of the day, even though the Jackets do appear to lose some leverage, they will still be able to get a solid return for him, more-so than some of the Armchair GM trades we have seen over the last few weeks.
Jul. 27, 2018 at 11:46 a.m.
#5
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Quoting: Bluejackets2000
I agree with the assessment above.
Steel would be the ask from Jarmo.
The Jackets already have the power forward in Foligno, Anderson, Jenner, etc.
They also obtained the skill/finesse gamebreaker in Panarin.
They would either look to replace him with the same type player (albeit younger) or to fill Center position for depth.
Those are the 2 needs the Jackets would look to fill.
Acknowledging that they lose a bit of leverage in the whole situation, but still do have some leverage in still controlling his rights and could still play the "desired teams" against each other.
At some point, it will become clear who really is willing to pay the highest value for Panarin to sign long term.
At the end of the day, even though the Jackets do appear to lose some leverage, they will still be able to get a solid return for him, more-so than some of the Armchair GM trades we have seen over the last few weeks.


Just spit balling here, but do you think they could add in Getzlaf to get a little more speed. I feel like Rakell has proven to be the future and with Pan on his wing those two could be terrifying. Im not saying who to ask for in return, just curious.
Jul. 27, 2018 at 12:22 p.m.
#6
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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There is no problem. He's an upcoming UFA, so what, if he gets you the best chance to win you keep him. If upcoming UFAs are so poisonous, why would any team trade them for them?
Jul. 27, 2018 at 12:37 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: Davisoc
Just spit balling here, but do you think they could add in Getzlaf to get a little more speed. I feel like Rakell has proven to be the future and with Pan on his wing those two could be terrifying. Im not saying who to ask for in return, just curious.


I agree with you, Rakell is definitely the future and would pair well with Panarin.
I love Getzlaf, and he plays the right way and makes those around him better.
Honestly the Jackets are probably not looking to take on that much salary for an older player, but just might do so for Getzlaf in a deal to help mentor both Dubois & Wennberg, and take pressure off them especially come playoff time.
Jul. 27, 2018 at 12:46 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: palhal
There is no problem. He's an upcoming UFA, so what, if he gets you the best chance to win you keep him. If upcoming UFAs are so poisonous, why would any team trade them for them?


It is interesting what the NHL has become.
I still think there is team loyalty across the league, and not all UFA's have become poisonous.
But we are starting to see the top UFA's start to bolt for other teams without consideration to their current team, for a myriad of reasons, all of which are very different...

Tavares had prior connection to his home town Toronto, and was tired of carrying the load with no help in NYI and little chance of making playoffs each year.

Panarin wants to be the superstar in a fun city by the ocean, as a young single guy with a lot of money, I can't begrudge him that at all.
He was pulled out (traded) from a comfortable environment by the Chicago/Columbus trade, so he probably feels Chicago (the team that gave him his big NHL opportunity) gave up on him; and really has no team loyalty to Columbus after only 1 year (and probably doesn't care for Tort's style, either).

Next year, Karlsson may look to bolt out of Ottawa, for some of the same reasons as Tavares (deterioration of the team, lack of management support & control during the Hoffman fiasco).
Most players, however, do have a sense of loyalty to their City/team and their teammates, and in most situations are still willing to give first consideration to that team as long as they feel appreciated and the contract offer is commensurate, and the coach isn't an a&&wink.
Jul. 27, 2018 at 12:57 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: Bluejackets2000
I agree with you, Rakell is definitely the future and would pair well with Panarin.
I love Getzlaf, and he plays the right way and makes those around him better.
Honestly the Jackets are probably not looking to take on that much salary for an older player, but just might do so for Getzlaf in a deal to help mentor both Dubois & Wennberg, and take pressure off them especially come playoff time.


My thought process was more so it would be the player I think the Jackets are missing.
Jul. 27, 2018 at 3:29 p.m.
#10
Banned
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Quoting: Bluejackets2000
It is interesting what the NHL has become.
I still think there is team loyalty across the league, and not all UFA's have become poisonous.
But we are starting to see the top UFA's start to bolt for other teams without consideration to their current team, for a myriad of reasons, all of which are very different...

Tavares had prior connection to his home town Toronto, and was tired of carrying the load with no help in NYI and little chance of making playoffs each year.

Panarin wants to be the superstar in a fun city by the ocean, as a young single guy with a lot of money, I can't begrudge him that at all.
He was pulled out (traded) from a comfortable environment by the Chicago/Columbus trade, so he probably feels Chicago (the team that gave him his big NHL opportunity) gave up on him; and really has no team loyalty to Columbus after only 1 year (and probably doesn't care for Tort's style, either).

Next year, Karlsson may look to bolt out of Ottawa, for some of the same reasons as Tavares (deterioration of the team, lack of management support & control during the Hoffman fiasco).
Most players, however, do have a sense of loyalty to their City/team and their teammates, and in most situations are still willing to give first consideration to that team as long as they feel appreciated and the contract offer is commensurate, and the coach isn't an a&&wink.


Chicago didn't "give up on him" they knew what they had, and that was a player that was going to be difficult down the road. They tried to make the best out of it.
The Saad for Panarin trade should tell you something about the value. Saad was a good younger player who had success in chicago but not as much of a playmaker.

Columbus at the time had "won" the deal, but then you saw what you really got. I'm almost positive when the blackhawks were doing negotiations with him, they saw this coming. Which is why they dealt him.

The value of Panarin is tied to IF a team can resign him. If they can't his value is that of a deadline rental, which is an average of a 1st + prospect.
I think he has his list of teams. I'm almost certain they consist of NY, NJ and LA. You might, and this is a small might, be able to include FL. FL simply doesn't have a working environment for his model girlfriend. While Miami is a fashion place, it's no NY or LA for a model to get work.

Because of that the leverage to deal a player is small. You are looking at 5 teams. All of which know they only need to wait it out. If you are a NYI, NYR, and even a LAK team, you are better off simply waiting than paying a high price. None of those teams are in a win now mode really. Yes LAK were a playoff team, but they didn't even look close to competing. You can pretty much add ANA to that list. They know their time isn't now, why give up the future. The only team that would really like to see him is probably NJ, but I doubt that you see him traded in division, and they have a commitment to their long term plan. So that knocks out NYI, NYR, and NJ.
You look at the two FL teams, in FL, and TB which have a much smaller chance of him playing there, and FL is in no hurry, TB is in win now mode, but they would have to blow things up to get him due to cap space.

I really think he finishes out the year in CBJ and signs elsewhere. CBJ will never get a return the fans are happy with because he's talented. It's more acceptable he just didn't want to stay than trade him for less than value. Which is exactly what Chicago did.

I would take this trade for him if I were CBJ. It gets him out of your conference, you get decent value in return, maybe even better than what you gave up for him, and you are out of the headache of dealing with him.
Remember in the end the trade really looks like this. Brandon Saad for Montour, B and Nick Ritchie.

When you look at it like that, it seems like a pretty fair value if you ask me.
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Jul. 27, 2018 at 3:34 p.m.
#11
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I think this is one of he closest I have seen involving panarin, most are crazy overpays. He is a rental player for most so you are not gonna get top return for him. Simple as that.
Jul. 27, 2018 at 4:07 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: pharrow
Chicago didn't "give up on him" they knew what they had, and that was a player that was going to be difficult down the road. They tried to make the best out of it.
The Saad for Panarin trade should tell you something about the value. Saad was a good younger player who had success in chicago but not as much of a playmaker.

Columbus at the time had "won" the deal, but then you saw what you really got. I'm almost positive when the blackhawks were doing negotiations with him, they saw this coming. Which is why they dealt him.

The value of Panarin is tied to IF a team can resign him. If they can't his value is that of a deadline rental, which is an average of a 1st + prospect.
I think he has his list of teams. I'm almost certain they consist of NY, NJ and LA. You might, and this is a small might, be able to include FL. FL simply doesn't have a working environment for his model girlfriend. While Miami is a fashion place, it's no NY or LA for a model to get work.

Because of that the leverage to deal a player is small. You are looking at 5 teams. All of which know they only need to wait it out. If you are a NYI, NYR, and even a LAK team, you are better off simply waiting than paying a high price. None of those teams are in a win now mode really. Yes LAK were a playoff team, but they didn't even look close to competing. You can pretty much add ANA to that list. They know their time isn't now, why give up the future. The only team that would really like to see him is probably NJ, but I doubt that you see him traded in division, and they have a commitment to their long term plan. So that knocks out NYI, NYR, and NJ.
You look at the two FL teams, in FL, and TB which have a much smaller chance of him playing there, and FL is in no hurry, TB is in win now mode, but they would have to blow things up to get him due to cap space.

I really think he finishes out the year in CBJ and signs elsewhere. CBJ will never get a return the fans are happy with because he's talented. It's more acceptable he just didn't want to stay than trade him for less than value. Which is exactly what Chicago did.

I would take this trade for him if I were CBJ. It gets him out of your conference, you get decent value in return, maybe even better than what you gave up for him, and you are out of the headache of dealing with him.
Remember in the end the trade really looks like this. Brandon Saad for Montour, B and Nick Ritchie.

When you look at it like that, it seems like a pretty fair value if you ask me.



I see what you are saying, and agree they would like to have him signed/playing out of division and conference if at all possible, which only leaves the ANA/FLA market as top options.
That being said, I disagree with using his talent for 1 year and letting him walk for nothing.
Jarmo should be doing everything possible to make the team better long term, which has been his (and John Davidson's) mantra all along.
If they feel that they cannot "convert" him or "win him over", which I don't believe they will be able to do, then I suspect they will stay with the action plan they have had all along and trade him for the long term benefit/return.
You have to remember that Columbus has been a team that UFAs have NEVER wanted to come to freely, and several have bolted at the first chance they got (anyone remember some guy named Adam Foote? or Jeff Carter?).
The Columbus fans are savvy hockey fans, and many have been from day one, even though it was a new franchise to Columbus in 2000.
(I am a Washington DC transplant who moved to Columbus in 1998, t and remember the days of bad hockey when the "Crapitals first started in the early 1970s).
Fans do not have a tolerance for players that are troublemakers, or have an attitude that contradicts the team environment, or flat out just don't want to play for them.
CBJ was smart and underwrote the Johanssen for Jones trade very well.
It ended up working out for both teams, but the Johanssen contract negotiation would have been a nightmare for the Jackets.
It is too bad that the Jackets didn't pick up on the fact that Panarin was going to be that difficult.
(CBJ already had a couple other crazy Russians that didn't work out too well, Nicholai Zherdev and Nikita Filatov).
They have really stayed away from the Russian players since then. (except for BOB, of course).
I can't wait to see how the Panarin situation works out, and I can't wait for hockey season!!!
Jul. 27, 2018 at 7:33 p.m.
#13
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Quoting: Bluejackets2000
It is interesting what the NHL has become.
I still think there is team loyalty across the league, and not all UFA's have become poisonous.
But we are starting to see the top UFA's start to bolt for other teams without consideration to their current team, for a myriad of reasons, all of which are very different...

Tavares had prior connection to his home town Toronto, and was tired of carrying the load with no help in NYI and little chance of making playoffs each year.

Panarin wants to be the superstar in a fun city by the ocean, as a young single guy with a lot of money, I can't begrudge him that at all.
He was pulled out (traded) from a comfortable environment by the Chicago/Columbus trade, so he probably feels Chicago (the team that gave him his big NHL opportunity) gave up on him; and really has no team loyalty to Columbus after only 1 year (and probably doesn't care for Tort's style, either).

Next year, Karlsson may look to bolt out of Ottawa, for some of the same reasons as Tavares (deterioration of the team, lack of management support & control during the Hoffman fiasco).
Most players, however, do have a sense of loyalty to their City/team and their teammates, and in most situations are still willing to give first consideration to that team as long as they feel appreciated and the contract offer is commensurate, and the coach isn't an a&&wink.


NHL players show more "loyalty" when approaching UFA then most players. But looking at Panarin, he left as UFA to join Chicago, Chicago didn't show loyalty by trading him, so I can understand why Panarin doesn't have the loyalty feeling for the CBJ. Fans are funny, when a UFA joins THEIR teams fans are joyous, he picked OUR city, our TEAM. But if a player leaves as UFA, he's a traitor.
 
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