I was not going to make another leaf ACGM until Nylander signed, but I have a confession to make. I actually like Jake Gardiner in the blue and white. For those of you who don't know, the Leafs top pairing Dmen were Jake Gardiner on the left and Nikita Zaitzev on the right if you are going by TOI and ATOI (I know right). Hes a solid Dman 95% of the time with excellent offence, and can show flashes of brilliance that remind us of why he was drafted 2 spots behind Erik Karlsson, and how he could have really turned into a true, #1LHD, rather than a barely passable one. He is most known for his occasional... horrendously game losingly (is that a word?) awful decision making, which was on full display game 7 vs Boston this year. That being said, he is still young enough (for a Dman) to fix that part of his game (especially under Babcock, although I doubt it will happen), and even with it in can play an important role on this team maybe sharing the number 1 spot with Rielly instead of Zaitzev pls Babs?
Either way, the only way this works is a Zaitzev esq contract. Long term, full NMC, lower cap hit.
On a totally off topic note: I got criticized last time for "Some Veteran." Goat is the only Centre anywhere remotly ready for the NHL (brooks is not ready yet), and I am not sure he will ever be full time, also babs likes his vets, so I think we will get a league min signing to fill 4C.
On another tangent, had the leafs not got Tavares, we were kind of screwed down the middle. No depth and nothing coming in the line for awhile. We needed (and still need) to draft a centre that can play a 3/4 role on a team.
So what did I learn? It is possible. But it basically requires everyone to take their minimum expected deal (not exactly a discount, but not their full value, so like hundreds of thousands off, not millions).
Chances of happening like this:
matthews getting 11 mil, 75%
Nylander getting 6 (probs for 8 years), 30%
Marner getting 7.25, 35%
Kappy getting 2.25, 65%
Johnsson getting 1.25, 35%
Borgman, Rosen, Sparks getting these contracts or less, 75%
Gardiner accepting this offer, 5%
I’ll give you 4 stars for a realistic view of Gardiner. I don’t think he will take such a low offer but I’m pretty sure he would give a discount to stay.
No love for Lindholm? Pretty sure he will be our 4c.
Jake is 28 years old, you really want to sign to a 8 year contract? Jake seemed to have peaked two seasons ago, it's time for Leafs to move and spend that cap wiser. To achieve cap space you have paid Borgman and Rosen less of what they make now. They could walk as UFAs without a 10% raise. If Gardiner has good season, he'll get more $$$ from some team, maybe for five years, if he stays the same or worse this season, it's time to get Dermot/Reilly/Borgman/Rosen, maybe Sandin the LHD spots.
Nylander will need to be locked up for 8 years and it will probably be around $6.5-7M range - a bridge deal will sink the leafs unless they trade him at the draft.
I agree with you with regards to Gardiner, but he'll probably cost us over $6M/per and will get closer to $7M during Free Agency.
He's this years JVR - great player, but TML can't afford to pay him what he wants/deserves.
I’ll give you 4 stars for a realistic view of Gardiner. I don’t think he will take such a low offer but I’m pretty sure he would give a discount to stay.
No love for Lindholm? Pretty sure he will be our 4c.
2 years in the future. I just don't assume a depth UFA signing would work out. Lets hope he and Ozhiganov do.
2 years in the future. I just don't assume a depth UFA signing would work out. Lets hope he and Ozhiganov do.
For a centre that will see 3-8 minutes of ice time I think he will do just fine. From what I’ve seen of Ozhiganov he looks pretty promising. Think of Roman Polak only faster and more skilled.
What do you mean by depth ufa signings? Both of these guys are on elc Contracts.
For a centre that will see 3-8 minutes of ice time I think he will do just fine. From what I’ve seen of Ozhiganov he looks pretty promising. Think of Roman Polak only faster and more skilled.
What do you mean by depth ufa signings? Both of these guys are on elc Contracts.
Umm they aren't? To be on an elc you have to be drafted (or under a certain age) right? Lindholm and Ozhiganov are like 26 years old and are 1 year Ufa signings from Finland and Russia. We don't get any RFA rights or anything with them. Am I wrong here?
Umm they aren't? To be on an elc you have to be drafted (or under a certain age) right? Lindholm and Ozhiganov are like 26 years old and are 1 year Ufa signings from Finland and Russia. We don't get any RFA rights or anything with them. Am I wrong here?
You are wrong, ozhiganov is an elc and will be an rfa. Lindholm is an elc that will be a ufa next year.
You are wrong, ozhiganov is an elc and will be an rfa. Lindholm is an elc that will be a ufa next year.
Quoting: Random2152
Yeah I just checked. Does elc mean anything then? I thought elc meant you got RFA rights and a bunch of other things (p. Bonuses etc).
So I'm reading more. Cap friendly doesn't really address this part due to their age but I guess all 1st contracts are elc, but only for 1 year BC of how old they are. So we can put them down, slide, bonuses etc.
My bad. I thought it was a draft/young player thing.
Yeah I just checked. Does elc mean anything then? I thought elc meant you got RFA rights and a bunch of other things (p. Bonuses etc).
It allows you to pay less and use performance bonuses. Lindholm just aged out on being an rfa (26yrs old) ozhiganov is 25 and has been playing khl since he was 18. Don’t let Rosen slip through the cracks either. Another player signed on an elc who will be an rfa. The leafs have been doing a lot of scouting over seas, much more than they used to. These players develop quicker into nhlr’s because of the level they have been playing at. Just need to get used to the smaller ice. I think these players can fill out our roster holes and fit in nicely. I’m hoping a player like Ozhiganov can still develop into more.
Oh and one more the thing to add... ELC’s were introduced so teams that drafted players could actually afford to sign them and use the rfa process to keep them and actually build teams through drafting and scouting.
Karlsson - 43 goals/78 points - $5.25M for 1 year
Ehlers - 25 goals/64 points & 29 goals/60 points - $6M for 7 years
And then there is Nylander...who plays with Matthews...who went 20/61 & 22/61...not quite as good right?
nylander might sign a bridge deal like 2 years or so for less but a long term deal will cost more. karlsson settled at that for 1 year plus he was not expected to turn into a number 1 or 2 center he will get paid big time if he duplicates last season.
Ehlers signed his deal last year cap increases and in one year and he is a wing only plays no center like nylander. Nylander has more potential. Nylander will get 8 million at least if he signs for more than 2 years.
nylander might sign a bridge deal like 2 years or so for less but a long term deal will cost more. karlsson settled at that for 1 year plus he was not expected to turn into a number 1 or 2 center he will get paid big time if he duplicates last season.
Ehlers signed his deal last year cap increases and in one year and he is a wing only plays no center like nylander. Nylander has more potential. Nylander will get 8 million at least if he signs for more than 2 years.
Yeah. The Pasternak deal is a much better indicator. I see the most likely scenario being a 4-6 year 6.5 mil contract
nylander might sign a bridge deal like 2 years or so for less but a long term deal will cost more. karlsson settled at that for 1 year plus he was not expected to turn into a number 1 or 2 center he will get paid big time if he duplicates last season.
Ehlers signed his deal last year cap increases and in one year and he is a wing only plays no center like nylander. Nylander has more potential. Nylander will get 8 million at least if he signs for more than 2 years.
8 million? Anything over 2 years? At least?
That's an ambitious ask for a player that hasn't performed as well as the two examples I gave, and on a team with as little cap space as the Leafs. Having the ability to play centre is not the same as playing centre. Leaf players don't get paid more because they're Leaf players.
I hope they all get signed soon so all the speculation can end.
Yeah. The Pasternak deal is a much better indicator. I see the most likely scenario being a 4-6 year 6.5 mil contract
Pastrnak followed up his 34 goal, 70 point contract year with 35 goals and 82 points. And then there was the playoff performance as well. Hard to use him as a comparable to a 20 goal guy.
Ehlers and Pastrnak outscored Nylander considerably in the goal department. One is walking into year one of his deal and Pastrnak is walking into year two. Nylander will be lucky if he gets a long term deal that starts with a 6.
8 million? Anything over 2 years? At least?
That's an ambitious ask for a player that hasn't performed as well as the two examples I gave, and on a team with as little cap space as the Leafs. Having the ability to play centre is not the same as playing centre. Leaf players don't get paid more because they're Leaf players.
I hope they all get signed soon so all the speculation can end.
they wont be paying him for he has done but what he is expected to do in prime years of contract.
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