Ideas from the Athletic

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: blowing_the_zone

Team: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Aug. 5, 2018

Published: Aug. 7, 2018

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Threw together this roster based off a few recent articles from the Athletic.

1. Apparently my eye test has been accurate. Turns out that based on advanced stats (albiet based on a small sample size) that Josh Leivo is pretty damn good. Good enough to be in the top 9, and given the chance he's a likely candidate for a breakout season.

2. They made a great case for the leafs going with 3 c and 7 d. It gives JT, Matthews and Kadri the ice time they need, keeps a top flight center on the ice at all times and creates interesting options to address the D in-house. It also allows for Nylander to take the odd shift at C and keeps Lindholm and Ennis as press box depth options.

3. It also turns out that the leafs might already have their 1RD. Reilly has experience there and based on a good sized sample, when he's paired with Gardiner on the left they've been a top 5 d pairing in the NHL. Also, based on his first half season, Dermot is good. Like, really good. And he proved that while spending most of his time playing with Polack. He might be just what Zaitsev needs in a partner in order to have a bounce back season. Finally, based on the advanced stats, Hainsey should really be used as a bottom pairing guy and pk specialist. That leaves one of Carrick, Holl or Oz in the press box with the other two getting limited minutes and pk time.

I think they're all interesting and well supported ideas that the Athletic puts forward. And it works well with the cap this year, allowing performance bonuses to be paid out and Horton to be on the opening night roster, which is important for next year's cap, as Palhal does well to remind us.

Will this happen? I doubt it. But I'd love to see them try it. What do you think?

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Nylander, William		6	$6,500,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Bonus, Performance		1	$5,400,000

Buyouts

Mikhail Grabovski: $0

Retained Salary Transactions

Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2019
2020
2021

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
25	$79,500,000	$79,008,333	$2,550,000	$5,400,000	$491,667

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW UFA - 3	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 7	Marner, Mitchell $894,167$894,167 ($850,000$850K) RW UFA - 1
Leivo, Josh $925,000$925,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Matthews, Auston $925,000$925,000 ($2,850,000$3M) C UFA - 1	Nylander, William $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW UFA - 6
Marleau, Patrick $6,250,000$6,250,000 LW, C NMC UFA - 2	Kadri, Nazem $4,500,000$4,500,000 C M-NTC UFA - 4	Brown, Connor $2,100,000$2,100,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
Johnsson, Andreas $787,500$787,500 LW, RW UFA - 1		Kapanen, Kasperi $863,333$863,333 RW UFA - 1
Ennis, Tyler $650,000$650,000 LW, RW UFA - 1		Lindholm, Pär $925,000$925,000 ($850,000$850K) LW, C UFA - 1
		Horton, Nathan $5,300,000$5,300,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Gardiner, Jake $4,050,000$4,050,000 LD UFA - 1	Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA - 4	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 3
Dermott, Travis $863,333$863,333 LD/RD UFA - 2	Zaitsev, Nikita $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD UFA - 6	Sparks, Garret $675,000$675,000 G UFA - 1
Hainsey, Ron $3,000,000$3,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 1	Ozhiganov, Igor $925,000$925,000 ($850,000$850K) RD UFA - 1	Bonus, Performance $5,400,000$5,400,000
	Carrick, Connor $1,300,000$1,300,000 RD UFA - 1
	Holl, Justin $675,000$675,000 RD UFA - 2

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Johnsson, A.		Tavares, J.		Kadri, N.
	Rielly, M.		Marner, M.

Power Play 2
Leivo, J.		Matthews, A.		Marleau, P.
	Gardiner, J.		Nylander, W.

Penalty Kill 1
	Hyman, Z.	Brown, C.
	Hainsey, R.	Zaitsev, N.

Penalty Kill 2
	Johnsson, A.	Kapanen, K.
	Dermott, T.	Ozhiganov, I.

Aug. 7, 2018 at 10:22 a.m.

Goldendelicious

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 665

Likes: 173

On point #2...can people get off this idea already? This is all anybody wants to talk about and it isn't going to work. It's like the whole sign JT to a 1 year max and then 8 long term. Another stupid idea proposed that people are taking way too far. You really think the Leafs are going to be a better hockey team running all three centres 20+ minutes a game, playing all situations? These guys would be fried in the second half of the season. It may happen for a game or 2 because of an in-game injury but there is no way an NHL is going to run this line combo continuously.

Herms17 liked this.

Aug. 7, 2018 at 10:42 a.m.

Herms17

Pass it to Lucic

Joined: Apr. 2018

Posts: 1,392

Likes: 467

Quoting: Goldendelicious

Personally I hope they do this. I want the Leafs to be burnt out by Feb.

Aug. 7, 2018 at 10:42 a.m.

blowing_the_zone

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 1,540

I don't know, last I checked 60/3 = 20, not 20 plus. And factor in pks (which matthews and kadri dont do, and JT might not as a leaf), throw in the odd shift for Willy at C and you're probably looking at 20 for JT (less than his usual atoi) 19 for Matthews (which is far from over kill) and maybe 18 for kadri (which isn't much of an increase). But you're probably right, as you articulated so elegantly and thoughtfully, it's stupid .. those people at the Athletic are real idiots I guess?! Lol. Ease up man! This fake gm game is just for fun. Babcock and Dubas aren't going over these threads looking for insights..

Aug. 7, 2018 at 10:55 a.m.

Goldendelicious

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 665

Likes: 173

Quoting: leafy_business

Its been thrown around far too often that people think its actually a possibility.

Aug. 7, 2018 at 11:54 a.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,433

Likes: 22,637

Kinda strange how so many folks don't think the Leafs have four NHL Dmen and now they want to play seven in a game.
Playing seven Dmen a game really isn't an advantage over six. What I would like the Leafs to do thought is to half more of game rotation of their bottom two or three guys so they all get ice time during the season. It creates a hole when a play sits for three weeks and then has to play because a player is injured. Hard to get up to NHL speed that way.

GenXHockey liked this.

Aug. 7, 2018 at 12:27 p.m.

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,157

Likes: 10,700

Quoting: palhal

No 3c and no 7d. But what do you think of Rielly on the right and Gardiner on the left with Dermott/Zaitsev. I’m actually really liking this idea. It’s a great way to get dermott off of the bottom pair, Hainsey back to his natural side and some RD prospects into the lineup. Hainsey would have 3rd pairing minutes and be a good player to have a prospect playing alongside.

Aug. 7, 2018 at 12:49 p.m.

S1LV3R

Mac Jameson is a god

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 87

Likes: 18

Reilly on the right side is interesting, but then you're asking Reilly to play more conservative with Gardiner.
As for 3c and 7d idea, I agree with some of the above post that it's not ideal for a full season.
Dermott - Zaitsev would make a solid 2nd pair that might earn more shutdown minutes.
This really leaves the bottom pair minutes for 3 players.
I was under the impression that this formation was used when a team had 7 NHL defenders under contract (and could lose one to waivers).
Or, had 6 quality NHL D, and a young stud that needed NHL minutes before taking over a spot.

Aug. 7, 2018 at 1:12 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,433

Likes: 22,637

Quoting: Jamiepo

I think folks have this obsession with LHD and RHD. Fact is there are fewer right hand shots so to get three competent RHD might be mathematically improbable. Although hopefully Liljegren, Rasemum and Durzi will be NHLer soon.
This season who are the best six Dmen? IMO it might be Dermot who switches to right side. He seems young and seems to have the mobility to make the switch. Reilly, Gardiner and Borgman on the left. Zaitsev.Hainsey and Dermot on the right. If Carrick and Ozhignkov can find their way into the top six, good for the Leafs and them.

Aug. 7, 2018 at 1:22 p.m.

Fignn

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 808

Likes: 125

Last time I heard stud hockey players say they want to play and play a lot so I’m not sure how 20 min for JT, AM, NK. JT, NK have been in the league enough they are use to the grind JT can easily play 20 to 22 min a game. I would dress a fourth line center when the game is out of reach I would play the fourth line more.

Aug. 7, 2018 at 1:53 p.m.

#10

blowing_the_zone

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 1,540

Quoting: Goldendelicious

Its been thrown around far too often that people think its actually a possibility.

It might just be a possibility because of math and stuff, if not intention. JT at 20, Matthews at 19 and Kadri at 18 mins a game leaves 3 mins a night for a 4th line C. If that's how ice allocation works out it might be a better scenario to have 7 d with the bottom three splitting third pairing minutes. I think that's generally the point of the Athletic article. It's an interesting idea. Does it happen? Like I said, I doubt It. But they do go on to spell out how the d pairings made up from 7 d could shift the d from a weakness to a strength. Nothing wrong with people discussing this as a possibility. Who knows how it'll all work out? I don't recall coming across anyone who picked Tyler Ennis as a possible leaf signing.. and that happened.

Aug. 7, 2018 at 2:45 p.m.

#11

blowing_the_zone

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 1,540

Quoting: S1LV3R

I know Tampa has played around with the 3 c 7d option, But I couldn't really say what drove that. I doubt very much that this type of set up happens as a going concern but I'd love to see them try it throughout the year. It makes some sense to me on a couple levels, and I like what Jamiepo wrote about Hainsey being a good partner for some of the rd prospects and giving each of them more of a look, while also getting Dermot into the second pairing.

I think a large part of people's interest in "fixing" the leafs d is, like Palhal states, wrapped up in the whole narrative around rd/ld balance. Maybe we cant find a right shot partner for reilly with a deal that doesnt create a new hole somewhere else?Maybe its Dermott, like pal suggests? Maybe Reilly is the rd we've been looking for? The leafs have a lot of d under contract. Maybe in looking for that elusive right shot unicorn1Rd, we're not giving a fair shake to what's already in the system? Who knows. But with the depth the leafs have they could get creative this year in terms of how they try to find solutions.

Aug. 7, 2018 at 3:33 p.m.

#12

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,157

Likes: 10,700

Quoting: leafy_business

Quoting: palhal

I believe Dermott played the right side for the Marlies, so it’s viable. With Gardiner and Hainsey gone next year I think it’s important to get Ozhiganov, Holl, Rosen and maybe liljgren some time so we can make some decisions. I think we know what Carrick brings and depending on how the others play he might be gone next year as well.

Aug. 7, 2018 at 3:55 p.m.

#13

S1LV3R

Mac Jameson is a god

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 87

Likes: 18

Trading for any Top 1-2 RHD is a losing battle. Nobody wants to give them up, and if they do, they want a king's ransom.
Every other team has had to draft them, which I think the leafs should do.
Not every 1RHD needs to be a top pick either:
Weber - 2nd round (49th)
Faulk - 2nd round (37th)
Subban - 2nd round (43rd)
Chara - 3rd round (56th)

The leafs would be better off using their 1st and 2nd picks going after D, then trying to trade for one and breaking the bank/roster to do it.

blowing_the_zone and palhal liked this.

Aug. 7, 2018 at 5:10 p.m.

#14

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,433

Likes: 22,637

Quoting: S1LV3R

Trading for any Top 1-2 RHD is a losing battle. Nobody wants to give them up, and if they do, they want a king's ransom.

The leafs would be better off using their 1st and 2nd picks going after D, then trying to trade for one and breaking the bank/roster to do it.

You're right that's why the Leafs top # 1 and # 2 picks in 2017 were RHDs. and in 2018 # 1 LHD, # 2 RHD. Maybe cheap young alternatives will be on the way soon.

Aug. 7, 2018 at 5:51 p.m.

#15

mja

bobrouse

Joined: Jul. 2016

Posts: 81

Likes: 7

Quoting: S1LV3R

I agree that we shouldn't be bending over backwards to trade for a #1D, but its pretty ironic that amongst the list of D-men you chose to illustrate your point 3/4 were acquired by their current team via trade.

Aug. 7, 2018 at 6:12 p.m.

#16

S1LV3R

Mac Jameson is a god

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 87

Likes: 18

Ya, that is true, but on a long enough timeline almost every player gets traded. Really I was trying to illustrate that not every top d is a top 5 pick. I think we have some decent prospects that could turn out. Look at Dermot, he was developed properly. Give them some time and we might have at least another middle pair d, maybe even better (hoping Lil'Green pans out).

Aug. 8, 2018 at 12:40 a.m.

#17

LoovTrain

Joined: May 2015

Posts: 225

Likes: 13

I’m surprised most of you panned this idea.

It makes sense on two levels.

You run a lineup with Lindholm and Kapanen as your 10 & 11th forward and add a 7 D whose specialty is predominantly penalty killing.

It provides Babcock the opportunity to either run 3 or 4 C’s or double shift some wingers.

More importantly it lightens the load on Hainsey and Zaitsev on the PK.

Seriously, we can’t run those two into the ground like we did last season... we all saw what the results were of that. And now, we don’t have Polak to help ease the burden.

Fortunately, we have a very good pk’er on the Marlies D who could stand to be very sheltered at 5v5.

You know who it is.

PK pairings.

Hainsey - Zaitsev
Marincin - Dermott

blowing_the_zone liked this.

Aug. 8, 2018 at 10:11 a.m.

#18

saint2e

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 18

Likes: 2

If you've got Ennis and Marleau in your lineup, they can take 2-3 shifts of 4C as needed. Perhaps even try Willy out as C for a couple shifts as well. Split 6-8 minutes a game between those guys at C, and the idea of running 3C's (most of the time) isn't too far fetched.

Aug. 8, 2018 at 11:00 a.m.

#19

blowing_the_zone

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 1,540

Quoting: saint2e

With JT, Matthews and Kadri as the three primary centremen and with Marleau, Nylander and either Ennis or Lindolm as the 11 F (as you and Loov point out) that gives Babcock 6 forwards out of the 11 who can play centre. The more that people throw their 2 cents in on this the more I think that the idea put forth by the folks at the Athletic makes alot of sense. it'll be fun to see what happens this year with the leafs roster.

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