Flyers deal is terrible for Philly. Glass or Tkachuk for Myers I could understand. Or Myers as the centerpiece of a package for EK I could live with. But Myers as a throw-in to add value to a goalie swap just seems ridiculously unrealistic.

What is Myers ceiling? Isnt he undrafted?

if you are looking at a draft position to determine a prospect or players value I'd caution against that. His ceiling is much higher than your average UDFA. Top pairing ceiling and I'd say top-4 floor. He is an impressive prospect. Probably the 2nd or 3rd best prospect in the Flyers system between him, Frost, and Hart. Additionally, most places still have him ranked in the top-30/50 of prospects outside of the NHL. Obviously, I'll be higher on him since I'm a Flyers fan but his value the team is way too important to throw him away for nothing. He is essentially the only RHD prospect we have that looks poised to be a top-4 dman and will likely/hopefully slot in next to Provorov/Ghost/Sanheim in the top-4 either this year or next.

You're under the salary floor, but there's a reason you can't get top prospects when your star is a UFA soon.

First of all, since Karlsson won't agree in advance to an extension, that really limits your trade options to Cup contenders. I mean, sure, the Stars would love Karlsson, but they're not going to give that much because they don't necessarily benefit from getting him for this season - in fact, it really just lowers their draft position. They would be taking him to make it easier to re-sign him. And, if you were a GM, do you really trade your entire future just to slightly help increase your chances of re-signing a star player?

Any Cup contender should become favorites (or at least near favorites) with Karlsson, and that brings up his value to them. But, Cup contenders rarely have deep enough prospect pools that they can give away top prospects without guaranteeing the need for a rebuild within a couple of years, and teams want to extend their window as long as possible. And they have chemistry. If the Bruins split up Bergeron and Marchand, they get worse even though their depth is more spread out, because it's breaking up chemistry. Similarly, it's difficult to get someone like Palat, Point, Gourde, Cirelli, etc. from a team like the Lightning, since they all fill a specific role on that team and have chemistry that can't necessarily be replicated.

GMs know all that, and they know that a soon-to-be UFA is less valuable, so they will offer less. Of course, the Senators are demanding top prospects, but if they just hang up the phone and wait, Dorion will have to back down, or he'll end up with nothing. it's even worse with the Karlsson case, since it's quite apparent that he won't re-sign in Ottawa. And, when you have an owner like Melnyk who insists that one of the worst contracts in the League be included in the trade, that makes things harder because no Cup contender has the cap space for that. Some assets have to go to a third team to make them take on that contract, and that comes directly from the Senators' return.

So no, you're not going to get Point, Sergachev, Cirelli, Glass, Suzuki, or Heiskanen. You'd be lucky to get Honka, Foote, or Brannstrom. Heiskanen is an overpayment considering the risk (the Stars risk losing him for free in free agency, and they lose a top prospect when they maybe could have signed him in free agency without it). And for the Lightning and Vegas, yes, they have good prospects, but these are instrumental to their future success (and sometimes, for players like Point, for their current success as well). There's simply no way around it - you don't get top prospects for a soon-to-be UFA who everyone knows won't re-sign with you.

I felt the same when mcdonagh AND miller couldnt land sergachev OR point

Hey at least that package for rentals got more than what people think Karlsson will get as a rental lol. Ive seen something like a b- prospect, a cap dump, a 1st and a 3rd

Regarding the title only, that is the new NHL. The potential for a young 20 year old to produce at least 80% of what is really needed out of any position on the team has grown enormously. Its crazy because the UFA's could be absolute studs but the chance those young players hitting their stride has proven to be a worthy gamble over overpaying for those studs.

That's why if you have a promising young prospect, you don't trade him for just about anything. Even if the player your getting is heads and shoulders a stud player.

Younger, faster, cheaper. Rinse and repeat. The smart teams move out their 29-30 yo players at the height of their prime to restock the cupboards. The bad teams are the ones who keep them and then move them when they've clearly declined and don;t return the yield the name would otherwise say. Obviously there are some exceptions like Crosby and Ovechkin, etc who hold intangible value that are priceless to an organization.

1) Teams are allowed to talk extension with him. This gives a team like Tampa the certainty of keeping him.

2) It is very ignorant to say the Rental aspect of a player eliminates all of his value. Do you realize Karlsson is the best dman in the NHL and to some even a top 3 player? If this deal becomes a sign and trade, Karlsson for Sergachev, Cirelli and a 1st isn't a crazy deal. To say they'd be -lucky- to get either of those players is BS. Mark Stone would fetch a Brannstrom/Honka in a trade.

3) The idea that Ryan going to a third team will diminish their return from the contender getting Karlsson does not make sense. The sens will likely have to give up a pick and take back a smaller cap dump, but they won't lose anything from TBL/VGK/DAL

Karlsson has stated that he does not want to sign an extension until he's already settled for a while to decide if he likes the city or not. He loved Tampa during the all-star games, and I see no reason why he wouldn't like to live in Tampa and play on a team with Hedman, but since it's not a guarantee, that's still a risk.

As I explained, if he won't guarantee that he'll re-sign, the only teams who would want him are teams that he could help win the Cup before that becomes an issue. What need does Dallas have for Karlsson next season? I mean, they would give a small package just to increase their chances at signing him, but the only way you can get Heiskanen, for example, is if Karlsson guarantees an extension. Even then, it's doubtful, since I don't see the Stars contending for a while, and Karlsson's aging, whereas Heiskanen has many seasons ahead of him, but Karlsson may be better than Heiskanen ever is.

Anyway, if he's not guaranteeing an extension, then yes, Sergachev, Cirelli, and a 1st is crazy. Maybe Foote, a 1st, a 2nd, Dotchin, and a cap dump, but you wouldn't get even that from any non-Cup contender. From Vegas, you maybe get Brannstrom, a mid-level prospect, and a few picks. As I said, Honka, Brannstrom, and Foote aren't outside the realm of possibility, but Dorion really has to negotiate well for that to happen.

Yes, Ryan will hurt the return. Especially based on the situation, many people think that it will take Raddysh and a 1st to get a team to take Bobby Ryan and the Lightning's other cap dump, and Melnyk won't take any of that. Of course that diminishes your return. The Lightning don't care what goes to you and what goes to some other city, they care how much they paid for what they got. If they're getting Karlsson, they're going to pay the price of Karlsson, and if some of that package goes to a third team for cap purposes, then that comes from the Senators' return. Cap dumps aren't free, and when you attach a cap dump to a trade, you have to give up something. It's really too bad Melnyk is working there, since you would be much better off keeping Bobby Ryan.

Karlsson and Melnyk have both made this situation terrible for themselves and have drastically lowered the potential return (Karlsson won't guarantee an extension, Melnyk won't keep Bobby Ryan or accept any salary going his way, etc.) . Meanwhile, Dorion demanded Point, Glass, or Heiskanen, and started leaking false rumors to try to raise trade values, which did not bode well with other GMs, who I don't think are necessarily negotiating this as seriously anymore.

The Senators are in a desperate situation, and not one that gets you anywhere near fair market value. Dorion's request for Point is almost laughable.

This is the best comment I've ever seen posted on CapFriendly AGM. I wish I could give YOU five stars. It should be mandatory reading for every dreamer or idiot who thinks Ottawa should get the equivalent of three or four first-round draft picks for Erik Karlsson. (I keep getting outraged comments and one star for postings in which I suggest that Ottawa will get only one.)

They both stayed for 5+ years, they arent rentals