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Leafs Cheap RHD Trade (PHI)

Created by: Matthews34
Team: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 8, 2018
Published: Aug. 8, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
As we progress through the offseason the chances of the Leafs getting that coveted top pairing RHD seem lower. This is a cheaper option that not only gets us a minute munching RHD, but a guy with toughness that so many complain we lack. For Philly they have Myers coming up where if he impresses enough trading Gudas should make a lot of sense. I think this works for everyone.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
8$6,500,000
Trades
PHI
  1. 2019 2nd round pick (TOR)
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2019
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the STL
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2020
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the SJS
2021
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$79,500,000$74,528,333$2,550,000$4,550,000$4,971,667
Left WingCentreRight Wing
$6,250,000$6,250,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 2
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,850,000$3M)
C
UFA - 1
$6,500,000$6,500,000
RW
UFA - 6
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 3
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 7
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RW
UFA - 1
$787,500$787,500
LW, RW
UFA - 1
$4,500,000$4,500,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 4
$863,333$863,333
RW
UFA - 1
$650,000$650,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LW, C
UFA - 1
$2,100,000$2,100,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
$925,000$925,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$5,300,000$5,300,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 4
$863,333$863,333
LD/RD
UFA - 2
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 3
$4,050,000$4,050,000
LD
UFA - 1
$2,345,000$2,345,000
RD
UFA - 2
$850,000$850,000
G
UFA - 1
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 6
$1,300,000$1,300,000
RD
UFA - 1

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Aug. 8, 2018 at 1:52 p.m.
#1
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Seems good to me. I've been hoping Dubas would obtain a mid-level RD for some time, because I think that Hainsey is retiring, or at least not re-signing. Let's see what the Philly guys think.
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Aug. 8, 2018 at 1:53 p.m.
#2
Formerly Jamiepo
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Do you not think it would be more wise to see how Ozhiganov pans out first before filling that role?
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Aug. 8, 2018 at 1:56 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
Seems good to me. I've been hoping Dubas would obtain a mid-level RD for some time, because I think that Hainsey is retiring, or at least not re-signing. Let's see what the Philly guys think.


Ill answer for them. They would not want to trade Gudas because they have literally no RHD depth not counting Myers. But I agree that I would like as you do obtain mid level RHD like Bortuzzo, maybe depth guy as Prosser, we dont need big fish high paid defenders, We have stars on D, we need solid guys to fill the spots.
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Aug. 8, 2018 at 1:59 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: Jamiepo
Do you not think it would be more wise to see how Ozhiganov pans out first before filling that role?


It's a good point because actually I'm a pretty big Carrick fan too and believe he would succeed in a bottom pairing role. What it comes down to for me is that Gudas brings a whole different element to our blueline that I don't believe Carrick or Oz possess. And while they COULD theoretically fill that role we're a contending team that at some point needs some stability back there and to not rely on an overseas signing or a bottom pairing D to take the next step.

But if we go into the season as we are at this point in time, see what Carrick/Oz have in camp, and a deal like this is still available mid-season? I think that's totally a viable option as well.
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Aug. 8, 2018 at 2:07 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: SammyT_51
Ill answer for them. They would not want to trade Gudas because they have literally no RHD depth not counting Myers. But I agree that I would like as you do obtain mid level RHD like Bortuzzo, maybe depth guy as Prosser, we dont need big fish high paid defenders, We have stars on D, we need solid guys to fill the spots.


Amen to both guys. Others who should be on the radar (this year and next) go as high as Stephen Johns and Esa Lindell to Kevin Connauton to Dylan Demelo and the myriad $800k defenders that are LA's back end. Speaking of Philly, by the way, and 800k defenders there's Christian Folin. Don't know why he didn't stay here.
Aug. 8, 2018 at 2:08 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: SammyT_51
Ill answer for them. They would not want to trade Gudas because they have literally no RHD depth not counting Myers.


I think the idea for Flyers fans would be to run something like this:

Prov-Ghost
Sanheim-AMac
Hagg-Myers

I know a decent number of them do have interest in moving Gudas. Partly because of a very poor season last year. If a Flyers fan could give us some insight that would be greatly appreciated though.
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Aug. 8, 2018 at 2:11 p.m.
#7
Formerly Jamiepo
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Quoting: Matthews34
It's a good point because actually I'm a pretty big Carrick fan too and believe he would succeed in a bottom pairing role. What it comes down to for me is that Gudas brings a whole different element to our blueline that I don't believe Carrick or Oz possess. And while they COULD theoretically fill that role we're a contending team that at some point needs some stability back there and to not rely on an overseas signing or a bottom pairing D to take the next step.

But if we go into the season as we are at this point in time, see what Carrick/Oz have in camp, and a deal like this is still available mid-season? I think that's totally a viable option as well.


Carrick and Ozhiganov are two comoletely different players.
Ozhiganov comes a red to Gudas:
Oz better skater, bigger body harder hitter, harder shot.
Gudas more experience in nhl

Gudas would be an alright fit for maybe 1 season but as it’s already been pointed out I don’t think they have the depth to let him go.
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Aug. 8, 2018 at 2:16 p.m.
#8
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Am I the only person that would never want a player like Gudas on my team? There is difference between a hard player and a dirty player.
Aug. 8, 2018 at 2:18 p.m.
#9
Formerly Jamiepo
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Quoting: Davisoc
Am I the only person that would never want a player like Gudas on my team? There is difference between a hard player and a dirty player.


I was kinda leaning that way too...
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Aug. 8, 2018 at 2:24 p.m.
#10
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Philly takes a 2nd rounder for Gudas in a second.

Hes not nearly effective anymore now hes a repeat, repeat offender so hes hesitant to do what made him good: play physical, hit and a nasty streak.

While Philly only has Myers and Folin who are RH (they did just draft 2 good right handed dmen), theres a massive shortage across the league and GUdas at his salaey and current effectiveness int really worth a second. But if thats the offer, Philly has provorov, gostisbehere, hagg, sanheim, andy macdonald, folin, myers and tons of cap space and theyd take that second in a second.
Aug. 8, 2018 at 2:32 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: Davisoc
Am I the only person that would never want a player like Gudas on my team? There is difference between a hard player and a dirty player.


I'm sure you're not the only one. For me personally it isn't a deal breaker, but just a negative for the player. I imagine others thimk differently.

Quoting: Hammerwise
Philly takes a 2nd rounder for Gudas in a second.

Hes not nearly effective anymore now hes a repeat, repeat offender so hes hesitant to do what made him good: play physical, hit and a nasty streak.

While Philly only has Myers and Folin who are RH (they did just draft 2 good right handed dmen), theres a massive shortage across the league and GUdas at his salaey and current effectiveness int really worth a second. But if thats the offer, Philly has provorov, gostisbehere, hagg, sanheim, andy macdonald, folin, myers and tons of cap space and theyd take that second in a second.


I was quite aware of the dropoff in play for Gudas over this past year, but the deal would be gambling on him returning to 16/17 form. But if what you stated in the first sentence is true and he may never regain that form due to the numerous suspensions that would likely be a major roadblock.
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Aug. 8, 2018 at 2:40 p.m.
#12
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Hes okay, still a solid third pairing guy and some PK time, but IMO not worth a second rounder and Philly has enough depth and prospects and massive cap space to fill that spot.
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Aug. 8, 2018 at 3:05 p.m.
#13
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Why would we give up a 2nd for a more expensive Polak?

I dont think we need to give up anyyhing for another dman. If a deal that comes along, sure, but no need to force something. Our forwards are going to have the puck A LOT which will make our D look even better. Lets go into this season with who we have and force a young guy to prove he belongs!
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Aug. 8, 2018 at 4:09 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: buds16
Why would we give up a 2nd for a more expensive Polak?

I dont think we need to give up anyyhing for another dman. If a deal that comes along, sure, but no need to force something. Our forwards are going to have the puck A LOT which will make our D look even better. Lets go into this season with who we have and force a young guy to prove he belongs!


I also believe that getting rid of Bozak and now having 3 2way Centres will also help our D this year. I think a lot of people Don’t realize how important a Centres role is in the defensive zone.
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Aug. 8, 2018 at 4:33 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: Davisoc
Am I the only person that would never want a player like Gudas on my team? There is difference between a hard player and a dirty player.


Soft, just like the Leafs and that is why they will never win anything!
Aug. 9, 2018 at 8:28 a.m.
#16
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Quoting: DirtyDangles
Soft, just like the Leafs and that is why they will never win anything!


That was a really ironic statement coming from a Flyers fan.
Aug. 9, 2018 at 8:48 a.m.
#17
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Quoting: Davisoc
That was a really ironic statement coming from a Flyers fan.


Ironic? When was the last time the Leafs even made the finals? Oh right, back when there were only 6 teams!
Aug. 9, 2018 at 9:20 a.m.
#18
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Quoting: DirtyDangles
Ironic? When was the last time the Leafs even made the finals? Oh right, back when there were only 6 teams!


Adorable.
Aug. 9, 2018 at 12:04 p.m.
#19
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Quoting: Davisoc
Adorable.


Don't like the truth eh?
Aug. 9, 2018 at 1:20 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: DirtyDangles
Don't like the truth eh?


Whatever you say, old wise one.
Aug. 9, 2018 at 1:35 p.m.
#21
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Not sure I would accept this for Philadelphia. Radko Gudas has pretty solid underlying metrics and had some bad puck luck last season. Don't really have any incentive to move him as he is still a valuable asset to have on this team. I also think that his shot contributions are really underrated league-wide.
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Aug. 9, 2018 at 2:18 p.m.
#22
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Quoting: buds16
Why would we give up a 2nd for a more expensive Polak?

I dont think we need to give up anyyhing for another dman. If a deal that comes along, sure, but no need to force something. Our forwards are going to have the puck A LOT which will make our D look even better. Lets go into this season with who we have and force a young guy to prove he belongs!


Roman Polak : -1.49 rel CF% ; -1.49 rel xGF% ; 100.31 PDO
Radko Gudas : 2.71 rel CF% ; 1.7 rel xGF% ; 97.08 PDO

Not sue where there is any objective analysis to justify Radko Gudas being a "more expensive Polak".
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Aug. 9, 2018 at 2:32 p.m.
#23
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Quoting: phillyjabroni
Roman Polak : -1.49 rel CF% ; -1.49 rel xGF% ; 100.31 PDO
Radko Gudas : 2.71 rel CF% ; 1.7 rel xGF% ; 97.08 PDO

Not sue where there is any objective analysis to justify Radko Gudas being a "more expensive Polak".


You replied with advanced stats as proof? first pdo is luck, so your reply has no credibility. Real stats make your reply even less relevant.

Polak. 54 GP, 2G, 10A +5 46PIMS 0.22PPG 1 MILLION
Gudas . 70GP, 2G, 14A, 0+/- 83PIMS 0.23PPG 3,350,000 MILLION

WOW.
Aug. 9, 2018 at 3:07 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: buds16
You replied with advanced stats as proof? first pdo is luck, so your reply has no credibility. Real stats make your reply even less relevant.

Polak. 54 GP, 2G, 10A +5 46PIMS 0.22PPG 1 MILLION
Gudas . 70GP, 2G, 14A, 0+/- 83PIMS 0.23PPG 3,350,000 MILLION

WOW.


PDO is context - Gudas had worse puck luck than Polak while posting better numbers. Points per game, plus minus, or penalty minutes don't really have any impact on who is better. Advanced metrics are "real stats" - in fact, they are more valuable for individual player evaluation than points, +/-, and penalty minutes.

When you delve into the underlying numbers, it's abundantly clear that Gudas makes his pair-mates better, while Polak makes them worse.
Looking at the Gudas-Sanheim pair (238 5v5 mins), they posted a 7.84 rel CF%, 7.81 rel xGF%, along with an abysmal 94.9 PDO (atrocious puck luck)
But when you examine Sanheim-MacDonald pair (208 5v5 mins), they posted 5.35 rel CF%, 6.04 rel xGF%, but had an upper tranche ranking in PDO of 103.3

Moving over to Polak, him with Dermott (223 5v5 mins), they had a 3.07 rel CF%, -1.14 rel xGF%, and a 103 PDO.
However, when you look at Dermott with Carrick (184 5v5 mins), the numbers are vastly better : 7.4 rel CF%, 14.72 rel xGF%, and PDO of 96.

Looking at Owen Kewell's NHL Similarity Tool, Gudas' most comparable player for offense is Calvin de Haan (70%) and Stephen Johns for defense (87.7%). Roman Polak's most comparable player for offense is Kevan Miller (89%) and Luke Schenn (77.4%) for defense.

If you don't believe in the value of underlying metrics, that's your prerogative. In doing so, you will loose respect to have a rational conversation if you refuse to acknowledge that they are realistic metrics to determining individual player analysis.
Aug. 9, 2018 at 3:10 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: buds16
You replied with advanced stats as proof? first pdo is luck, so your reply has no credibility. Real stats make your reply even less relevant.

Polak. 54 GP, 2G, 10A +5 46PIMS 0.22PPG 1 MILLION
Gudas . 70GP, 2G, 14A, 0+/- 83PIMS 0.23PPG 3,350,000 MILLION

WOW.


You aren't paying either of those guys to get points though. The issue with Polak is that he cannot move the puck and exit the zone. Can Gudas do that? Can he then be a physical presence and eat up minutes? Can he then penalty kill? I'm not going to pretend I watch Philly often, but my understanding is yes he can do all of the above effectively enough to be a #4D on this team.

That's my thought process anyway.
 
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