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THE DREAM: SOIR + LITR + 2 trades + Hopeful UFA signings + 2nd overall

Created by: Britishbulldog
Team: 2016-17 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Apr. 13, 2016
Published: Apr. 22, 2016
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Was trying to wait for May 1st to see the lottery results and the official decision from Zaitsev before becoming an armchair GM again but couldnt't.

Looks like not just LITR but SOIR for Horton and Robidas:
http://www.shanaplandebate.com/2016/04/18/in-depth-analysis-toronto-maple-leafs-cap-situation/

"both Nathan Horton and Stephane Robidas..... did not play a single game in the 2015-2016 season and ....will find themselves on Season Opening Injured Reserve (SOIR) next year as well.

SOIR is similar to Long Term Injured Reserve (LTIR) but ...(both) are eligible to have their entire cap hit relieved from the team they are signed to. Meaning, this effectively wipes the entirety of both Robidas’ and Horton’s combined $8.3M salaries from Toronto’s cap hit for next season."

Lupul will most likely be on LITR next year which most likely won't be needed for CAP space though.

TRADES-
What is $1.65 MIL in Cap Space (Bickell's $1.0 MIL buyout and Cowen's $0.65 MIL buyout) worth to Chicago? I'm hoping swapping prospects + low 4th pick.

Going for Trouba still. :) Giving WPG young RH forward depth that they need, one of the Leafs top LH dman and a good 2nd pick.

UFA PROSPECTS
Hoping for Vesey and Zaitsev.
Yeah, I broke down and put Stamkos too...

DRAFT
Looking for Laine and will send him to the Marlies like Nylander was.

Not sure what to do with Marner because with the exception for Nylander the pre-trade deadline roster is 22 or over.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$800,000
2$700,000
2$900,000
2$1,100,000
2$925,000
2$925,000
6$5,000,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Zaitsev, Nikita
2$925,000
Vesey, Jimmy
2$925,000
7$10,500,000
Trades
1.
TOR
  1. Bickell, Bryan
Additional Details:
Bondra, Radovan signing rights
2016 4th round pick
CHI
  1. Cowen, Jared
Additional Details:
Corrado, Frank RFA rights
2.
TOR
    Trouba, Jacob RFA Rights
    WPG
    1. Gardiner, Jake
    2. Kapanen, Kasperi
    Additional Details:
    2016 2nd round pick
    Buyouts
    Retained Salary Transactions
    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    23$74,000,000$66,268,667$512,000$1,215,000$7,731,333
    Left WingCentreRight Wing
    $4,250,000$4,250,000
    LW, RW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    $10,500,000$10,500,000
    LW, C
    UFA - 8
    $894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
    RW
    UFA - 2
    Vesey, Jimmy
    $925,000$925,000
    $4,500,000$4,500,000
    C
    UFA - 6
    $686,667$686,667 (Performance Bonus$182,500$182K)
    RW, LW
    UFA - 1
    $4,200,000$4,200,000
    C, RW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    $900,000$900,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 1
    $2,650,000$2,650,000
    LW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 1
    $4,500,000$4,500,000
    C, LW
    UFA - 1
    $2,950,000$2,950,000
    RW, LW, C
    UFA - 2
    $900,000$900,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 2
    $575,000$575,000
    C
    UFA - 1
    $4,000,000$4,000,000
    LW, RW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 1
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    $5,000,000$5,000,000
    LD
    UFA - 6
    $5,000,000$5,000,000
    RD
    UFA - 2
    $4,150,000$4,150,000
    G
    UFA - 1
    $1,100,000$1,100,000
    LD
    UFA - 2
    Zaitsev, Nikita
    $925,000$925,000
    $1,200,000$1,200,000
    LD
    UFA - 1
    $800,000$800,000
    RD
    UFA - 2
    $925,000$925,000
    G
    UFA - 1
    $692,500$692,500 (Performance Bonus$182,500$182K)
    LD
    UFA - 1
    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
    $5,300,000$5,300,000
    RW
    NMC
    UFA - 4
    $3,000,000$3,000,000
    RD
    M-NTC
    UFA - 1
    $5,250,000$5,250,000
    LW, RW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2

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    Apr. 22, 2016 at 5:03 p.m.
    #1
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    Way too much for Trouba. Take out the 31st pick or Kapanen and you might be on to something. Gardiner is a better player than Trouba right now. How much upside does Trouba still have untapped?
    Apr. 22, 2016 at 5:51 p.m.
    #2
    Buds all day
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    Michalek>Greening or Leivo... and Soshnikov is pretty much a lock for the starting roster

    Vesey is going to the Bruins....and Komarov isnt a true "All star" but hes better than 4th line minutes

    I agree they may start Laine with the Marlies for developmental reasons, but he wont last long down there

    JVR-Stamkos-Nylander
    Komarov-Kadri-Sosh
    Michalek-Bozak-Brown
    Greening/Holland-Laich-Hyman

    With Laine bumping Michalek down the lineup once hes ready
    Apr. 22, 2016 at 5:57 p.m.
    #3
    leafs1967again
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    Quoting: Jarrett18
    Way too much for Trouba. Take out the 31st pick or Kapanen and you might be on to something. Gardiner is a better player than Trouba right now. How much upside does Trouba still have untapped?


    Wow, really? A lot of people will argue Trouba > Morg. I appreciate opinions but I think most people will disagree with you.

    I think Gardiner+Kap makes some sense. The pick may be a bit much, but the Jets would want and need it.
    Apr. 22, 2016 at 6:12 p.m.
    #4
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    Quoting: leafs1967again
    Quoting: Jarrett18
    Way too much for Trouba. Take out the 31st pick or Kapanen and you might be on to something. Gardiner is a better player than Trouba right now. How much upside does Trouba still have untapped?


    Wow, really? A lot of people will argue Trouba > Morg. I appreciate opinions but I think most people will disagree with you.

    I think Gardiner+Kap makes some sense. The pick may be a bit much, but the Jets would want and need it.


    I wouldn't be surprised if most people disagree. But pretty much every advanced stat and pretty much every traditional stat favours Gardiner over Trouba. Just look at how much better Phaneuf was when paired with him.

    My opinion is that Gardiner is the kind of defenseman who doesn't fit very well into traditional notions of how a defenseman should play, which leads to him being very under-appreciated. That being said, I believe Trouba will be the better player.

    Also right now(key word being now), Gardiner > Rielly.
    Apr. 22, 2016 at 6:35 p.m.
    #5
    Buds all day
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    Gardiner +Kapanen would be the most I'd pay for Trouba...maybe even too much. It would be nice to have a physical RHD to play with Mo but people have said he wants upwards of 6 mil....
    Apr. 22, 2016 at 9:30 p.m.
    #6
    LongtimeLeafsufferer
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    Is Trouba really that good? Like to here from Western Canada fans who see him more than folks in the east. You're paying him 5m for 6 years, the same as Rielly. Is Trouba that good to think his potential matches Rielly?
    I still think it's a unnecessary trade.

    Because Robidas was signed at 35+ years of age, I think his salary counts against the salary cap whether he retires, is injured or plays. In the 35+ it indicates that salary cap cannot be reduced for any reason.
    Apr. 23, 2016 at 9:27 a.m.
    #7
    Thread Starter
    C,mon Leafs...Please
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    Edited Apr. 23, 2016 at 9:39 a.m.
    Quoting: palhal
    Is Trouba really that good? Like to here from Western Canada fans who see him more than folks in the east. You're paying him 5m for 6 years, the same as Rielly. Is Trouba that good to think his potential matches Rielly?
    I still think it's a unnecessary trade.

    Because Robidas was signed at 35+ years of age, I think his salary counts against the salary cap whether he retires, is injured or plays. In the 35+ it indicates that salary cap cannot be reduced for any reason.


    Not sure how good how good Trouba is to the top 15 in the league but I am pretty sure that he would fit in the top 60 which is technically top pairing-ish. The analytics also show that Morgan and Jacob would be a solid top pairing...maybe not elite like Chicago's or Nashville's top pairing...but solid. I was looking for a recent article that shows this but can't find it.


    Hi palhal, I think it you see the CBA, it should say that almost everything is affected by the 35+ clause except injury. In fact as Brandon Pridham noted is Robidas (and Horton) qualifies for SOIR.

    http://www.shanaplandebate.com/2016/04/18/in-depth-analysis-toronto-maple-leafs-cap-situation/
    Apr. 23, 2016 at 9:54 a.m.
    #8
    Thread Starter
    C,mon Leafs...Please
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    Quoting: Jarrett18
    Quoting: leafs1967again
    Quoting: Jarrett18
    Way too much for Trouba. Take out the 31st pick or Kapanen and you might be on to something. Gardiner is a better player than Trouba right now. How much upside does Trouba still have untapped?


    Wow, really? A lot of people will argue Trouba > Morg. I appreciate opinions but I think most people will disagree with you.

    I think Gardiner+Kap makes some sense. The pick may be a bit much, but the Jets would want and need it.


    I wouldn't be surprised if most people disagree. But pretty much every advanced stat and pretty much every traditional stat favours Gardiner over Trouba. Just look at how much better Phaneuf was when paired with him.

    My opinion is that Gardiner is the kind of defenseman who doesn't fit very well into traditional notions of how a defenseman should play, which leads to him being very under-appreciated. That being said, I believe Trouba will be the better player.

    Also right now(key word being now), Gardiner > Rielly.


    I appreciate your point. I guess I kind of fall into Leafs1967's camp. To pry a young talent from WPG I think it would have to be an over payment. Kind of like what ARI would have to give the Leafs for Matthews. As a Leaf fan for 40 years I have thought of the Greening for Ekblad trades as well which usually gives us Leaf fans a bad name. I am trying to see it from WPG's perspective but you might be more accurate.
    Apr. 23, 2016 at 10:52 a.m.
    #9
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    Quoting: Britishbulldog
    Quoting: Jarrett18
    Quoting: leafs1967again
    Quoting: Jarrett18
    Way too much for Trouba. Take out the 31st pick or Kapanen and you might be on to something. Gardiner is a better player than Trouba right now. How much upside does Trouba still have untapped?


    Wow, really? A lot of people will argue Trouba > Morg. I appreciate opinions but I think most people will disagree with you.

    I think Gardiner+Kap makes some sense. The pick may be a bit much, but the Jets would want and need it.


    I wouldn't be surprised if most people disagree. But pretty much every advanced stat and pretty much every traditional stat favours Gardiner over Trouba. Just look at how much better Phaneuf was when paired with him.

    My opinion is that Gardiner is the kind of defenseman who doesn't fit very well into traditional notions of how a defenseman should play, which leads to him being very under-appreciated. That being said, I believe Trouba will be the better player.

    Also right now(key word being now), Gardiner > Rielly.


    I appreciate your point. I guess I kind of fall into Leafs1967's camp. To pry a young talent from WPG I think it would have to be an over payment. Kind of like what ARI would have to give the Leafs for Matthews. As a Leaf fan for 40 years I have thought of the Greening for Ekblad trades as well which usually gives us Leaf fans a bad name. I am trying to see it from WPG's perspective but you might be more accurate.


    That's fair. And I would much rather see Leafs fans posting trades that are biased towards the opposing team than the opposite.
    Apr. 25, 2016 at 9:54 a.m.
    #10
    leafs1967again
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    Quoting: Jarrett18
    Quoting: leafs1967again
    Quoting: Jarrett18
    Way too much for Trouba. Take out the 31st pick or Kapanen and you might be on to something. Gardiner is a better player than Trouba right now. How much upside does Trouba still have untapped?


    Wow, really? A lot of people will argue Trouba > Morg. I appreciate opinions but I think most people will disagree with you.

    I think Gardiner+Kap makes some sense. The pick may be a bit much, but the Jets would want and need it.


    I wouldn't be surprised if most people disagree. But pretty much every advanced stat and pretty much every traditional stat favours Gardiner over Trouba. Just look at how much better Phaneuf was when paired with him.

    My opinion is that Gardiner is the kind of defenseman who doesn't fit very well into traditional notions of how a defenseman should play, which leads to him being very under-appreciated. That being said, I believe Trouba will be the better player.

    Also right now(key word being now), Gardiner > Rielly.


    I would be very careful with advanced stats. Yes they are a nice tool, but on ice results and stats matter as well. Gardiner, for a puck moving type/possession player, lacks offensive stats to support the advanced stat lovers. Over time advanced stats numbers become less relevant if results don't come.
    Apr. 25, 2016 at 1:45 p.m.
    #11
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    Quoting: leafs1967again
    Quoting: Jarrett18
    Quoting: leafs1967again
    Quoting: Jarrett18
    Way too much for Trouba. Take out the 31st pick or Kapanen and you might be on to something. Gardiner is a better player than Trouba right now. How much upside does Trouba still have untapped?


    Wow, really? A lot of people will argue Trouba > Morg. I appreciate opinions but I think most people will disagree with you.

    I think Gardiner+Kap makes some sense. The pick may be a bit much, but the Jets would want and need it.


    I wouldn't be surprised if most people disagree. But pretty much every advanced stat and pretty much every traditional stat favours Gardiner over Trouba. Just look at how much better Phaneuf was when paired with him.

    My opinion is that Gardiner is the kind of defenseman who doesn't fit very well into traditional notions of how a defenseman should play, which leads to him being very under-appreciated. That being said, I believe Trouba will be the better player.

    Also right now(key word being now), Gardiner > Rielly.


    I would be very careful with advanced stats. Yes they are a nice tool, but on ice results and stats matter as well. Gardiner, for a puck moving type/possession player, lacks offensive stats to support the advanced stat lovers. Over time advanced stats numbers become less relevant if results don't come.


    Agreed 100%.

    Teams that don't use advanced stat tracking are like dinosaurs living in the past but over utilization of advanced stats are a recipe for disaster. Good teams can make a players advanced stats seem way better than they actually are and vice-versa. You need to be 50/50 when it comes to stats vs visual perception.

    Regarding Gardiner and Reilly, both may be right on this one. I think Leaf fans make Reilly out to be the next Drew Doughty when he almost certainly will not be (once again, not saying he isn't good because he is) and maybe Gardiner gets less of the glory more often than he should. I think the truth lies somewhere in between. Reilly isn't quite as good yet as some hope he will be and Gardiner isn't as bad as some think he is now. Regardless of the fact, Trouba is a better overal defenseman than Gardiner is now. You can bank on that. A player doesn't ask for 6m+ in his first contract unless he's pretty damn sure he can get 5-6m in the end. He's worth it and Winnipeg knows it.

    Now regarding Trouba, the reason why he is at the very least at par with Reilly is because Trouba has all the traits of a playoff calibre defensive defenseman. Where Reilly is probably going to outscore Trouba, Trouba makes up for it with his defensive play. Also Trouba is a RH dman so since they are more scarce than LH, their value is slightly higher. Its the reason a guy like Jason Demers, an all right but not super start dman will probably get 5m+ this year when he probably isn't worth it. True top 1/2-3/4 RH Dmen are hard to find. With the accent being on "True".

    So for the moment at least they are (because things can change since they are both young still):

    Overall: Trouba = Reilly
    Offensive ability: Trouba < Reilly
    Defensive ability: Trouba > Reilly

    Pick whichever helps your team more. Out West? Trouba. In the East? Reilly. IMO
    Apr. 25, 2016 at 6:32 p.m.
    #12
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    Quoting: leafs1967again
    Quoting: Jarrett18
    Quoting: leafs1967again
    Quoting: Jarrett18
    Way too much for Trouba. Take out the 31st pick or Kapanen and you might be on to something. Gardiner is a better player than Trouba right now. How much upside does Trouba still have untapped?


    Wow, really? A lot of people will argue Trouba > Morg. I appreciate opinions but I think most people will disagree with you.

    I think Gardiner+Kap makes some sense. The pick may be a bit much, but the Jets would want and need it.


    I wouldn't be surprised if most people disagree. But pretty much every advanced stat and pretty much every traditional stat favours Gardiner over Trouba. Just look at how much better Phaneuf was when paired with him.

    My opinion is that Gardiner is the kind of defenseman who doesn't fit very well into traditional notions of how a defenseman should play, which leads to him being very under-appreciated. That being said, I believe Trouba will be the better player.

    Also right now(key word being now), Gardiner > Rielly.


    I would be very careful with advanced stats. Yes they are a nice tool, but on ice results and stats matter as well. Gardiner, for a puck moving type/possession player, lacks offensive stats to support the advanced stat lovers. Over time advanced stats numbers become less relevant if results don't come.


    For sure you need to be careful with any stat, advanced or other wise. And if a player doesn't produce points over a large sample size than you can be certain he isn't a great offensive player. I would argue that the perception of Gardiner as an offensive defenseman is mis-leading and his point totals would back that up.

    All that being said, defensive play is difficult to measure and when something is difficult to measure people will naturally rely on pre-conceived bias to make an assessment. As an example, leadership is almost impossible to measure so if you look, talk and act like Mark Messier or Bryan Trottier we tend to assume you're a good leader. I think the same often applies to defensive play. If you look the part of a defenseman, and play a style that we associate with good defensive play it's easy to be labelled a good defensman(see Dan Girardi). Jake Gardiner looks nothing like what a good Canadian that grew up watching Coach's Corner sees as a good defensive player. I think this is where cautiously looking to stats can be a check against our biases. And interestingly, it's the defensive stats (corsi against, scoring chances against, etc) where Gardiner looks really good, and much better than Trouba.

    People believe a player to be more effective than he is when they're young with a ton of upside and I think this is the case with Trouba and Rielly. Trouba will get around $5m because of the player he's going to be, not the player he is. And Marco, I totally agree with your assessment of Rielly. I think the fact that he's an elite skater causes us Leafs fans to over-rate him a bit. He has a long way to go in terms of defensive ability and will need to improve by leaps and bounds to be in the conversation with the elite defenseman in the game.
     
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