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Nashville Predators signed Ryan Ellis (8 Years / $6,250,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Aug. 14, 2018 at 12:03 p.m.
#1
Ryan Ellis has signed a new contract with the Nashville Predators.
Standard Contract (Extension)
Comparable ContractsCOMPARE THIS CONTRACT
SIGNED BY: David Poile
Length: 8 years
Value: $50,000,000
Expiry Status: UFA
Cap % Tooltip: 7.86
Signing Team: Logo of the Nashville PredatorsNashville Predators
Signing Date: Aug. 14, 2018
Source: @CapFriendly

Ryan Ellis signed a 8 year, $50,000,000 contract with the Nashville Predators on Aug. 14, 2018. The contract has a cap hit of $6,250,000.

SEASONClauseCap HitTooltipAAV TooltipP. BonusesTooltipS. BonusesTooltipBase SalaryTooltipTotal SalaryTooltipMinors SalTooltip
2019-20$6,250,000$6,250,000$0$7,000,000$700,000$7,700,000$7,700,000
2020-21$6,250,000$6,250,000$0$0$5,300,000$5,300,000$5,300,000
2021-22$6,250,000$6,250,000$0$0$7,700,000$7,700,000$7,700,000
2022-23$6,250,000$6,250,000$0$0$5,300,000$5,300,000$5,300,000
2023-24$6,250,000$6,250,000$0$0$7,500,000$7,500,000$7,500,000
2024-25$6,250,000$6,250,000$0$0$6,500,000$6,500,000$6,500,000
2025-26$6,250,000$6,250,000$0$0$5,500,000$5,500,000$5,500,000
2026-27$6,250,000$6,250,000$0$0$4,500,000$4,500,000$4,500,000
TOTAL$50,000,000$50,000,000$0$7,000,000$43,000,000$50,000,000$50,000,000
Aug. 14, 2018 at 12:07 p.m.
#2
Habs/Pens fan
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A little long, sure but he's absolutely worth it.
Aug. 14, 2018 at 12:07 p.m.
#3
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David Poile does it again
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Aug. 14, 2018 at 12:15 p.m.
#4
Black Lives Matter
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Sorry Leaf fans ... i told you you weren't getting Ellis ... you didn't believe me.
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Aug. 14, 2018 at 12:16 p.m.
#5
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good deal
Aug. 14, 2018 at 12:17 p.m.
#6
Jetsfan
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That isn't that much for a player like him.

Yes, it is costing them 6.25 at age 35 but if you put it into perspective, he will be making 4.8 Mill over his 13 year contract as he only had a 2.5 mill contract before this one, inc this coming year
Aug. 14, 2018 at 12:19 p.m.
#7
mothariah
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I agree with the sentiment that this is a little bit of a long deal. He will be 37 at the end of the contract. That being said, he is a solid defenseman, who could have gotten a lot more on the open market.
Aug. 14, 2018 at 12:45 p.m.
#8
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I love the AAV if you are Nashville, and I guess you just have to swallow the term.

Overall worthwhile, as the price likely goes up significantly per season if you want to shorten this deal. Personally I would take Ellis over Carlson, so getting this AAV at only about 80% of Carlson's deal is a win. Ellis' offensive game is a little underrated, as he plays behind so many other weapons on the blueline he doesn't get a ton of PP time with the first unit, which definitely suppresses his points.

He has 79 five-on-five points over the last 3 seasons (194 games). Carlson has 82 (210 games). The power play is the biggest part of the difference in their offense, and Ellis gets more ice time against other teams top lines, and has shown a little better in that role, so overall I think he is better all round than Carlson. So getting him for that much cheaper per year seems like a win.
Aug. 14, 2018 at 12:58 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Sorry Leaf fans ... i told you you weren't getting Ellis ... you didn't believe me.


I don't recall that specific comment....

But I do recall you barking about us "not having a chance in h*** of getting Tavares".

Cheers to being right sometimes I suppose....
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Aug. 14, 2018 at 1:07 p.m.
#10
Jimmy Stu
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Kid has absolutely deserved it. Such a hard worker and I couldn't be happier for him!
Aug. 14, 2018 at 1:26 p.m.
#11
Sensible Commentary
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the nuttiest part about this is Poile convincing Ellis to not include a NMC/NTC. it's in line with all of his other signings, but it's still impressive and gives him a load of flexibility.
Aug. 14, 2018 at 1:34 p.m.
#12
Emotionally in 2018
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Sorry Leaf fans ... i told you you weren't getting Ellis ... you didn't believe me.


To be fair, you also said JT wasn't leaving the Islanders and that he definitely wasn't going to Toronto soooooooooooooooo
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Aug. 14, 2018 at 1:52 p.m.
#13
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damn
...i was prepared to give him 7,5 M......

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/816397
Aug. 14, 2018 at 2:00 p.m.
#14
TOLA5760
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Sorry Leaf fans ... i told you you weren't getting Ellis ... you didn't believe me.


Sorry Isles fans... I told you Tavares was signing with the Leafs...You didn't believe me
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Aug. 14, 2018 at 2:27 p.m.
#15
We are all equal
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Good for the first 5 years the back part of the contract ugh. Huge cap hit for a 34,35,36 year dmen who will be a 5th/6th dmen at that point in his career. It's one of those win now contracts and worry about the last 2-3 years later on. Just ask Chicago about the Keith/Seabrook contracts and the Kings with the Gaborik contract they offloaded as well as Dustin Brown contract... or Mike Richards one they bought out.
Aug. 14, 2018 at 2:51 p.m.
#16
Jetsfan
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Quoting: mothariah
I agree with the sentiment that this is a little bit of a long deal. He will be 37 at the end of the contract. That being said, he is a solid defenseman, who could have gotten a lot more on the open market.


He is only 27...He will be 35...Not that old
Aug. 14, 2018 at 2:52 p.m.
#17
Jetsfan
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Quoting: weirfanno1
Good for the first 5 years the back part of the contract ugh. Huge cap hit for a 34,35,36 year dmen who will be a 5th/6th dmen at that point in his career. It's one of those win now contracts and worry about the last 2-3 years later on. Just ask Chicago about the Keith/Seabrook contracts and the Kings with the Gaborik contract they offloaded as well as Dustin Brown contract... or Mike Richards one they bought out.


He is only 35 at the end. Not 40 like the others
Aug. 14, 2018 at 2:59 p.m.
#18
mothariah
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Quoting: dcc94
He is only 27...He will be 35...Not that old


27 + 1 year = 28 + 8 years = 36. Both half right? haha
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Aug. 14, 2018 at 3:09 p.m.
#19
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Quoting: mothariah
27 + 1 year = 28 + 8 years = 36. Both half right? haha


Haha...Forgot that part...Fair enuf
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Aug. 14, 2018 at 3:14 p.m.
#20
We are all equal
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1 & 8 equals nine guys. He is 27 right now. Easy math. the 34,35 and 36 years of the back half of the extension looks bad. Win now worry about the future down the road type of contract. I guess myself and 1 other is the only two that dislikes this contract.
Aug. 14, 2018 at 3:16 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: dcc94
He is only 35 at the end. Not 40 like the others


lol umm you need to do the math of the contract for term wise a little more. Term is ugh but the cap hit is low so 1/2 win I guess.
Aug. 14, 2018 at 3:43 p.m.
#22
Jetsfan
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Quoting: weirfanno1
1 & 8 equals nine guys. He is 27 right now. Easy math. the 34,35 and 36 years of the back half of the extension looks bad. Win now worry about the future down the road type of contract. I guess myself and 1 other is the only two that dislikes this contract.


remember for 5 years he has been making 2.5 Mill....This is to make it up to him...Also, 6.25 in 8 years won't be that much if the cap continually goes up.
Aug. 14, 2018 at 4:48 p.m.
#23
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He's till gonna be making less than Brent Seasbrook, Kevin Shattenkirk, & Ryan McDonagh. Compare their numbers and try to argue this isn't a terrific value if not a downright hometown discount so NSH can remain Cup contenders for years to come. Ellis is also far better defensively than Seabrook and Shattenkirk and better offensively than all three. A+ value. A+ signing. The going rate for top 20 Defenseman in the NHL is currently about $8M-9M based on recent contract extensions and UFA signings. Ellis would've easily garner huge $$$ as a UFA.
Aug. 14, 2018 at 5:13 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: dcc94
remember for 5 years he has been making 2.5 Mill....This is to make it up to him...Also, 6.25 in 8 years won't be that much if the cap continually goes up.


Cap will only slightly raise till the 32 team comes then jump like it did when Vegas came into the fold. That contract is going to be not so good looking the last three years but some team owners & GM's don't care as long as they win in the front of the contract. Congrats I guess. It's one of those contracts I go and put in the category of win now, worry about the last half later and find a sucker like the Canadiens or Coyotes to take on bad contracts and give them a prospect for doing it.
Aug. 14, 2018 at 6:37 p.m.
#25
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I don’t see as many red flags for this contract as I do for other D-Men locked up long term (e.g. former Predator Shea Weber’s contract). Ellis was a bit of a late bloomer and I think it’s just as likely that he will still be capable of playing Top-4 minutes with special teams come his age 35 & 36 seasons as it is that he is relegated to bottom pair or press box roles. Will he be like Ryan Suter, Zdeno Chara, Brent Burns - who have all shown the ability to play solid Top 4 minutes plus special teams into their mid 30’s (and beyond in Chara’s case)? Or will be burn out quicker but still stay relevant on a bottom pair, like Kronwall, Campbell, or Beauchemin? My bet is on the former and, while the overall Cap Hit May be a Ritchie high for the final 2/3 years of the contract I don’t think it outweighs the benefit in the first 4/5 years.
A shorter contract would have certainly meant a higher Cap Hit. Would this have impaired the Preds ability to Jer their D core together and to compete? At some point, yes!
For example would you want this 8y deal or a 7y deal at 7M? Or a 6y deal at 7.4M or a 5y deal at 7.75M? Given those options I would take the 8y deal. Gambling for length isn’t always a great idea but elite Top 50 D-Men in the NHL tens to age better into their mid-30’s than their forward counterparts - so I think it’s a solid move.
 
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