I've broken down where each team is in the "Stanley Cup Window". Are they perennial contenders for the time being? Are they developing into real challengers? Are they running out of time? Or are they out of the running and in need of a rebuild?

Opening:
ATLANTIC: Buffalo, Toronto
METRO: Carolina, New Jersey, Philadelphia
CENTRAL: Colorado
PACIFIC: Arizona, Edmonton

Open:
ATLANTIC: Florida, Tampa Bay
METRO: Columbus, Pittsburgh, Washington
CENTRAL: Nashville, St. Louis, Winnipeg
PACIFIC: Vegas

Closing:
ATLANTIC: Boston
METRO: NY Rangers
CENTRAL: Dallas, Minnesota
PACIFIC: Anaheim, Calgary, San Jose

Closed:
ATLANTIC: Detroit, Montreal, Ottawa
METRO: NY Islanders
CENTRAL: Chicago
PACIFIC: Los Angeles, Vancouver

TEAM ANALYSIS
Anaheim [Closing]: While the Ducks have a very solid and young defensive corp and long-term stability in net, all three of their captains (Getzlaf, Perry, Kesler) are 33 years old and noticeably declining. I wouldn't call them serious contenders, but they are still a playoff caliber team for now.

Arizona [Opening]: The Coyotes seem like they're in a perpetual rebuild because they can't/won't pay to keep the talent they develop. But they've always got a cupboard of top prospects ready to step in. Theoretically, they could contend down the road if they can hold on and add to guys like Keller, Dvorak, Strome, Merkley, Chychrun, etc.

Boston [Closing]: The Bruins’ leadership is on the wrong side of 30: Marchand (30), Rask (31), Krejci (32), Bergeron (33), Backes (34), and Chara (41). There's still some production left there, and they also have a handful of stud youngsters (Pastrnak/McAvoy) but a lot of the players on the roster and in the pipeline that would replace the aging vets are middle 6/middle pairing talents.

Buffalo [Opening]: Similar to Arizona, the Sabres seems to be in constant rebuild. The difference: player management rather than monetary support. They cleared house before last season, so we'll see how the new GM and coach (in both the NHL and AHL) are able to change things. But this is an organization with a lot of blue chip players under 25. Eichel, Reinhart, Ristolainen, Dahlin, Mittelstadt, and a whole lot of depth in the prospect pool. If they fix the development and management issues, they could be a contender sooner than you think. But that's a BIG "if".

Calgary [Closing]: This was probably the hardest team to classify. The Flames have a lot of young talent already in the NHL, but the only blue-chip I see waiting in the wings right now is Valimaki. Technically they are a very young team, but there's a lot of players with big roles on the team that will probably be around for a while whom I believe will be on the decline (and quickly) in a few years. I'm talking about good players now that should be past or near the end of their peak soon (Smith, Giordano, Neal, Ryan, Backlund, Frolik).

Carolina [Opening]: The Hurricanes are stacked with young high-end talent on defense, and they have a deep pool of young forwards with a lot of upside (Aho, Svechnikov, Necas, Teravainen, Kuokkanen, Pu, etc.). They have one of the youngest NHL rosters right now.

Chicago [Closed]: GM Stan Bowman did a real good job to keep the Blackhawks in their Stanley Cup window as long as possible, signing key staples (Kane, Toews, Hossa, Keith, Seabrook, Crawford) to long-term deals and moving high-end prospects for veteran rentals that could contribute around them. It was very successful, but the consequences have now caught up to them. They are against the cap ceiling and the players they have to fill out the roster around those key players are for the most part bottom 6/bottom pairing guys. How soon will the Hawks start moving those key players to shed some cap while there’s still some value left to trade and others teams willing to buy?

Colorado [Opening]: The Avalanche had a huge roster transformation last year, trading away the face of the franchise (Duchene) and bringing in (Girard, Kamenev, and Kerfoot) or promoting (Jost, Compher, and Greer) some of the league’s best prospects. Younger players like MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Barrie seem to have taken well to larger roles and look like franchise cornerstones for a long time to come. They just acquired what they hope will be the future starting goalie (Grubauer) who looks ready for the job following long success as the Capitals backup to Holtby.

Columbus [Open]: The Blue Jackets are in Stanley Cup contention now. They have good mix of young talent (Dubois, Jones, Werenski) and experienced veterans (Paranrin, Jenner, Bobrovsky) all over the ice: forward, defense, and in goal. Most of their core players are already signed up to long term deals to carry them through their prime.

Dallas [Closing]: The Stars have some young core players (Seguin, Klingberg, Nichushkin) but they also have some players with big roles that are getting older (Benn and Bishop) or nearing the end of their contracts (Spezza and Radulov). They don’t have a deep prospect pool (other than in the net, Heiskanen is the only real blue chip) and it’ll take some time to replace the production that will soon be leaving or declining.

Detroit [Closed]: The Red Wings are in purgatory. Perennial trip to the playoffs are a thing of the past, they have the oldest roster in the league (Zetterberg, Nielsen, Vanek, Kronwall, Ericsson, Daley, and Howard are all 34+) and they’re in cap jail with a lot of so-so players on big contracts (Helm, Nyquist, Abdelkader, DeKeyser) for another few years that they would like to, but will find it difficult to, get rid of.

Edmonton [Opening]: Two words…Connor McDavid. The Oilers have talent around him (Draisaitl, Klefbom, Larsson, Talbot) but there’s still question marks around what they’ve done lately in free agency (Lucic and Russell) and the draft (Puljujarvi is the only Oiler draftee since McDavid to make an NHL roster, and his development hasn’t exactly gone as planned). They aren’t a cup contender yet, but as long as McDavid is on the roster their window can remain opening for at least the next decade.

Florida [Open]: This is a very good team on paper. The Panthers drafted very well to bring in key pieces like Barkov, Bjugstad, Borgstrom, Ekblad, Huberdeau, and Trocheck. They’ve made shrewd moves in the market bringing in (or back) quality depth like Hoffman, Dadonov, Pysyk, and Reimer. They just have to fit the pieces together to really be formidable.

Los Angeles [Closed]: The Kings are another falling dynasty. There’s talent there for sure (Kopitar, Doughty, Toffoli), but much of it is past it’s prime (Carter, Kovalchuk, Phaneuf, Brown, Quick). They’ve got some promising prospects (Vilardi and Clague), but right now there’s a lot of roster spots being taken by declining veterans with a few years of term left.

Minnesota [Closing]: The Wild could challenge if they get the right breaks at the right time. There’s a lot of underrated players (Dubnyk, Suter, Zucker) and a lot of depth to cover for a long season. They have a couple years before the cap situation will get tricky with good young players coming off ELC’s (Eriksson Ek, Olofsson, Greenway, Kunin) that are going to need nice raises if they develop as expected. Parise’s and Suter’s contracts are an albatross that will likely hurt them for a long time.

Montreal [Closed]: The Canadiens are currently trying to start a rebuild but will find trouble getting fair-value for their biggest assets (Pacioretty, Weber, Price) in the trade market. There’s bright spots that will be still be around on the other side (Drouin, Kotkaniemi, Poehling, Mete, Juulsen, Primeau), but it’s going to take a while to right the ship. There’s a lot of what I would call “bodies” on the roster right now, especially on defense.

Nashville [Open]: The Predators probably have the best blue-line in the NHL (Josi, Subban, Ellis, Elkholm) and a lot of forwards that are just entering their prime (Johansen, Turris, Arvidsson, Jarnkrok, Forsberg). The goalie of the future (Saros) looks capable and soon ready to fill Rinne’s big skates in net.

New Jersey [Opening]: A surprisingly good team last year, the Devils have made a few good trades (Hall, Johansson, Vatanen), have some overperforming role players (Coleman, Boyle, Kinkaid), and got a lot of production from a handful of rookies (Hischier, Butcher, Bratt). If they can keep rolling they could make some big waves very soon.

NY Islanders [Closed]: The Islanders just lost their captain, best player, one of the best centers in the league, and the face of the franchise for almost a decade with nothing coming back in return. They did a good job restocking the shelves in the draft (Wahlstrom, Dobson, Wilde, Iskhakov, Skarek) with extra picks picked up from the Hamonic trade last year, but it’s going to be sometime before those prospects have an impact in the NHL. In the meantime, the remaining remnants of the “Tavares generation” seems like a mixed bag of contributors, but no stars (Bailey, Nelson, Cizikas, Boychuk, Leddy). They need to be transitioning into a youth movement (Barzal and Sorokin).

NY Rangers [Closing]: Lundqvist is 36 years old. The Rangers have a handful of major pieces who can become UFAs when their contract expires within the next two years (Hayes, Krieder, Zuccarello, Spooner, Namestnikov), but they’ve got some blossoming players that can give them a push (Skjei, Vesey, Buchnevic, Andersson).

Ottawa [Closed]: A team in complete disarray right now. The Senators’ top 4 players at the start of the last season (Duchene, Hoffman, Stone, and Karlsson) have been moved or are on their way out. There’s questions about ownership’s commitment. It’s time to hand this team over to the next generation (White, Brown, Chabot, Tkachuk, Formenton, Chlapik, Gustavsson) over the next couple of years.

Philadelphia [Opening]: The Flyers have a very strong Top 6 (Giroux, Couturier, Voracek, van Riemsdyk, Patrick, Simmonds) and their super deep prospect pool on defense (Gostisbehere, Provorov, Sanheim, Hagg, Myers) is starting to develop and solidify the back-end. The real question mark is whether they can get competent play from their goalie. They have help on the way (Hart, Sandstrom, Tomek), but it won’t come right away.

Pittsburgh [Open]: The Penguins are teetering on the edge of closing, but not quite yet. While they have depth issues and a very weak prospect pool, their key pieces (Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Letang) seem to still have a lot left in the tank and they still get help here and there from unexpected places over the past few years (Schultz, Murray, Guentzel). If they can continue to uncover these breakout contributors, they should remain viable contenders for a while.

San Jose [Closing]: The window for the Sharks is closing fast. Marleau is gone, Thornton is 39, Pavelski is 34, and Burns can’t remain at his peak much longer at 33. They signed Kane (who’s the type of speedy bruiser that historically doesn’t age well) to a 7 year deal at $7m a year. He can be very helpful in the short-term, but that cap hit is going to be painful in a few years.

St. Louis [Open]: The Blues had a very active offseason to fix their issues in the middle of the ice (O’Reilly and Bozak). They have some serious scoring power on the wings (Tarasenko, Schwartz, Steen, Fabbri, Perron). The have a very deep prospect pool that is going to be pushing for spots very soon (Thomas, Kostin, Kyrou, Walman, Blais). If they can fill out some depth on defense and get some more consistency from Allen they’re finally ready to break through; especially with the Blackhawks out of the way.

Tampa Bay [Open]: Arguably one of the best all-around teams in the league. The Lightning have an amazing stable of forwards (Stamkos, Kucherov, Palat, Miller, Johnson, Point, Gourde), defenseman (Hedman, McDonagh, Stralman, Sergachev), and starting goaltending (Vasilevskiy) with the bulk of the roster right in the middle of their prime production years. Most of the core forwards are signed up long-term to team-friendly deals. They have some pending UFAs coming up on defense, but they’ll also be freeing up cap-room soon with declining vets coming to the end of their relatively expensive deals (Callahan, Coburn, Girardi).

Toronto [Opening]: The Maple Leafs have a young group of players growing together under a great coach who knows how to manage a dynasty. Young phenoms (Matthews, Marner, and Nylander) are joined by experienced pros (Tavares, Marleau, and Andersen), while holdovers who went through the tough rebuild years (Kadri, Rielly, and Gardiner) and a solid supporting cast round out the roster. I think they still have some growing pains to get through, but you can say something about this team you haven’t been able to say in a while: “Outlook Looks Good”.

Vancouver [Closed]: The dynamic duo (Sedin twins) that made up the backbone of this team are now gone. A young movement is required, and the Canucks already have a decent start: young players like Horvat, Boeser, and Baertschi already look like ready leaders. And more help is on the way soon (Pettersson, Dahlen, Gaudette, Lind, Hughes, Juolevi, Demko), and we should see them sprinkle in over the next few years, making the jump to the big league. In the meantime, I don’t see a lot of short-term success in terms of wins.

Vegas [Open]: The rag-tag Golden Knights miraculously made it to the Stanley Cup finals last year. Something no one would have thought possible before the season began. Likewise, I don’t think there’s many that believe they’ll be able put up a repeat performance. But until shown otherwise, I’m going to keep them in the “Stanley Cup window open” category.

Washington [Open]: The reigning champs certainly have a chance to repeat. The Capitals were able to re-sign Carlson, Kempny, and Wilson and didn’t lose much production other than a good backup goalie (Grubauer) and a skilled grinder (Beagle). They were even able to bring back Orpik at a lower cap hit and bring in a few players that can contribute on the fringes (Dowd, Megna, Sgarbossa). Ovechkin shows no signs of slowing (anymore) and as long as they don’t rest on their laurels, they can continue to make deep runs in the playoffs and challenge for the cup; assuming they can again get by the Penguins.

Winnipeg [Open]: One of the youngest and best teams in the NHL right now. A promising combination for the future. The cap could be tricky to navigate next year: Morrissey, Laine, Connor, and Wheeler all need new contracts and the only big cap hit coming off the books will be Myers. But most of their top young talent is already signed up long term.

Hey this is great work! Thank you. I am in complete agreement with all of your analyses with the exception of Calgary, who I would classify more as “opening” or “open” at least rather than “closing”. They have a solid young D with other (e.g. Andersson) more than ready to step up if decline hits the older members. And they have a solid, if overall unspectacular forward crew (Johnny hockey is elite and Monaghan and Neal are snipers while Tkachuk is a solid top 6 power forward but really everything else is 3rd/4th liners on a legit Cup winning team).

I think the difficulty in classifying Calgary and, to some extent other teams (Florida, Columbus, Minnesota come to mind) suggests that there could almost be a whole other category of teams who may be in an “open” but not really likely to win with what they have (and not looking like they will necessary improve dramatically in the near future). Something like “open a crack” maybe? Similarly while Buffalo and Arizona could be great teams in a few years their respective Cup winning windows aren’t really opening yet - you could call it “preparing to open”. Yeah maybe not - obvi things could get parsed apart to the point where why bother grouping teams at all, right? Overall awesome work!

Agreed. There could be a couple more categories: rebuilding (refurbishing) and dark horses (cracked) maybe. And the teams you mentioned were the harder ones to place that could probably find a home in one of those.

I'd put LA as closing instead of closed and put Toronto as open instead of opening

other than that i think this is spot on - good job

I'll be realistic and say, even though i'm a Rangers fan, that the Rangers' window is pretty much 'closed'.

.

“Cracked” - love it! Columbus, Florida, Dallas, Calgary, possibly San Jose they arguably they’re more “closing” definitely all quality as “Cracked”. A definition would be something like “competitive but there are major flaws (cracks) in their lineup that hinder their ability to be serious contenders. These teams do not look like their situations are changing (for better or worse) in the foreseeable future.”

You also do know Winnipeg has a team, right?

Boston having a closing window I'm not so sure about. There is still enough legs in the leadership of managed correctly they could pass the baton effectively in much the same way that the Red Wings did when they transitioned from Stevie Y and Federov to Dats and Zets.

Good catch. I forgot to include their team analysis. I'll edit when I get a chance.

It's a lot easier to miss something when what your'e posting has at least some substance.

I’d say swap TOR and FLA, put CHI and LAK in closing instead of closed. Other than that it looks good to me.

Updated Classifications...

REFURBISHING: A team in the process of rebuilding.
CRACKED: A team that could currently contend, is not yet a favorite, and who's trajectory is unknown.
OPENING: A team that could currently contend, is not yet a favorite, and who's trajectory should soon rise.
OPEN: A team that is currently a Stanley Cup favorite.
CLOSING: A team that could currently contend, is not a favorite, and who's trajectory should soon fall.
CLOSED: A team who cannot contend and is in need of a rebuild.

Refurbishing:
ATLANTIC: Buffalo
METRO: Carolina
CENTRAL: Colorado
PACIFIC: Arizona

Cracked:
ATLANTIC: Florida
METRO: Columbus
CENTRAL: Minnesota
PACIFIC: Calgary, Vegas

Opening:
ATLANTIC: Toronto
METRO: New Jersey, Philadelphia
CENTRAL: St. Louis
PACIFIC: Edmonton

Open:
ATLANTIC: Tampa Bay
METRO: Pittsburgh, Washington
CENTRAL: Nashville, Winnipeg

Closing:
ATLANTIC: Boston
METRO: NY Rangers
CENTRAL: Dallas
PACIFIC: Anaheim, San Jose

Closed:
ATLANTIC: Detroit, Montreal, Ottawa
METRO: NY Islanders
CENTRAL: Chicago
PACIFIC: Los Angeles, Vancouver

What would you call a team that is not currently competitive, but is not known whether they will contend soon, or decide to rebuild?

(Also I’d put LA in the closing Category, since they do still have Doughty, Kopitar, and Quick).

I think if you're not competitive you're either in the middle of a rebuild or in need of one. And those are covered (refurbishing/closed).

A few people have suggested a change to LA. I thought about it and I'm comfortable with where I have them, though everyone is entitled to their own opinion. I think their chance at continuing their previous success with this generation is over. I don't think they will have a real shot until they turn their roster over to relieve some cap stress.

I like this post and I admire the work you put into it, I think a little more hyperbole should be applied to Toronto. Matthews in 20 and Tavares is 27, isn't that like a 16-18 year window? I think "outlook looks good" is slightly understated. Great post though, I appreciate people who actually put time into what they write.

I'm a Sabres fan. It's not in me to be much effusive of the Leafs.

Hahahaha I completely understand!

I actually really like this analysis and the effort. It shows a good understanding on where certain teams stand. Although i do disagree with a few of them

Bringing this back to the top so that I can remember to redo this for 2019-20.

Only thing I see wrong with this is that the Panthers have an open Cup window, while the Leafs don't. I don't see how a team who hasn't made the playoffs in a good while has an open window, while a young team who's been to the playoffs in the last three years is only opening. While the Panthers absolutely have the talent to start trending in that direction, putting them in a tier above Toronto seems premature to me.

Keep in mind this list was originally compiled in August of last year. But fair enough: I thought the Panthers had the talent last year to be a lot better than they were. In the amended version I put them in the "cracked" category (a team that could currently contend, is not yet a favorite, and who's trajectory is unknown).

I still want to see what team's do in the draft and free agency before I categorize teams for the 2019-20 season, but at this point I'd probably put Toronto in the "Open" category and Florida in the "Opening" category.