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Nylander...thoughts: let's try this again

Created by: The_Architect
Team: 2018-19 Montreal Canadiens
Initial Creation Date: Sep. 15, 2018
Published: Sep. 15, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Trades
MTL
    Nylander
    TOR
    1. Gallagher, Brendan ($1,000,000 retained)
    Buyouts
    Retained Salary Transactions
    DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
    2019
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the CBJ
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the CGY
    Logo of the CHI
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the WPG
    2020
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    2021
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the MTL
    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    25$79,500,000$69,687,975$0$2,032,500$9,812,025
    Left WingCentreRight Wing
    $5,500,000$5,500,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 5
    $3,900,000$3,900,000
    C, RW
    UFA - 4
    $4,800,000$4,800,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 3
    $3,083,333$3,083,333
    C
    UFA - 3
    $1,850,000$1,850,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 1
    $3,150,000$3,150,000
    C, RW
    UFA - 2
    $2,250,000$2,250,000 (Performance Bonus$1,250,000$1M)
    C
    UFA - 1
    $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$175,000$175K)
    LW, RW
    UFA - 1
    $1,166,667$1,166,667
    LW, RW
    UFA - 1
    $1,300,000$1,300,000
    LW, C
    UFA - 2
    $950,000$950,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 2
    $900,000$900,000
    C, LW
    UFA - 2
    $839,166$839,166
    LW, RW
    UFA - 1
    $650,000$650,000
    C, LW, RW
    UFA - 1
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    $4,625,000$4,625,000
    LD
    M-NTC
    UFA - 4
    $7,857,143$7,857,143
    RD
    UFA - 8
    $10,500,000$10,500,000
    G
    NMC
    UFA - 8
    $2,100,000$2,100,000
    LD
    UFA - 2
    $5,500,000$5,500,000
    RD
    M-NTC, NMC
    UFA - 3
    $950,000$950,000
    G
    UFA - 1
    $1,100,000$1,100,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 1
    $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
    RD
    UFA - 2
    $748,333$748,333 (Performance Bonus$182,500$182K)
    LD/RD
    UFA - 2
    $725,000$725,000
    LD
    UFA - 1
    $700,000$700,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 1

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    Sep. 15, 2018 at 9:53 p.m.
    #1
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    Not worth it
    PriceIsRite liked this.
    Sep. 15, 2018 at 10:00 p.m.
    #2
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    Quoting: Greatestgame22
    Not worth it


    How so?
    Sep. 15, 2018 at 10:01 p.m.
    #3
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    Quoting: The_Architect
    How so?


    Gallagher is better that Nylander
    Sep. 15, 2018 at 10:46 p.m.
    #4
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    Quoting: Greatestgame22
    Gallagher is better that Nylander


    I'd like to hear leafs fans' opinion on that. Should be interesting.
    Sep. 16, 2018 at 7:12 a.m.
    #5
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    Pathetic.
    Sep. 16, 2018 at 8:28 a.m.
    #6
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    Quoting: drewjenks
    Pathetic.


    Gallagher at 2.75 mill for the next 3 yrs is pathetic?
    Sep. 16, 2018 at 9:03 a.m.
    #7
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    Quoting: The_Architect
    Gallagher at 2.75 mill for the next 3 yrs is pathetic?


    No the trade is.

    So much more value would need to be extracted from this trade
    Sep. 16, 2018 at 9:12 a.m.
    #8
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    Quoting: drewjenks
    No the trade is.

    So much more value would need to be extracted from this trade


    "So much more value"? The 5 million you're saving on cap is the value.
    Sep. 16, 2018 at 9:35 a.m.
    #9
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    I don't mind it from a talent-for-talent and dollar-value standpoint, but I worry about the heart-and-soul question in Montreal. I would have hoped the Habs would have learned something from what happens when they traded away capable scrappers like Darcy Tucker, Mike Keane and Claude Lemieux. They never quite recovered. I like Nylander and thing he's is an excellent talent, but there's more to a successful hockey team than smooth skating and advanced stats.
    The_Architect liked this.
    Sep. 16, 2018 at 11:58 a.m.
    #10
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    Fair trade.
    Sep. 16, 2018 at 12:49 p.m.
    #11
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    Edited Sep. 16, 2018 at 12:56 p.m.
    Quoting: The_Architect
    "So much more value"? The 5 million you're saving on cap is the value.


    Agreed. They'll definitely be some cap savings.

    But Nylander won't realistically get over $7,000,000.

    Ehlers ($6,000,000 x 7) and Larkin ($6,100,000 x 5) are his best comparable's (both contracts start this year).

    A fair assumption for Nylander's contract is probably in the range of $6,500,000 x 6 years (I'll use this below).

    So if we're assessing the value of both players (including contracts):

    1. Gallagher (at $2,750,000) saves $3,750,000 in cap-space. PLUS
    2. Gallagher becomes a UFA after 3 seasons vs Nylander's 6. MINUS
    3. Gallagher may not re-sign (even if he does, UFA contracts are expensive). MINUS
    4. Gallagher has an injury history - Nylander has never been injured. MINUS
    5. Gallagher is 26 years old - Nylander is only 22 years old. MINUS
    6. Gallagher is in his prime - Nylander still has huge upside potential. MINUS
    7. Gallagher has a 54 point career high - Nylander's career low is 61 points. MINUS
    8. Gallagher has a career average 0.58 points per game - Nylander's is 0.75. MINUS
    9. Gallagher has no proven chemistry with Matthews - Nylander does. MINUS
    10. Gallagher definitely can't play center - Nylander might be a good center. MINUS

    Overall, the cap savings provide a lot of value (and so do Gallagher's intangibles).

    But the value is almost completely offset by Gallagher's age, limited upside, 3 year term, and UFA expiry status.

    With that considered: Nylander is the better player now and has the potential to be a much better player down the road.

    For these reasons, I think the Leafs deserve more value (assets) from the trade.
    Sep. 16, 2018 at 4:07 p.m.
    #12
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    Quoting: drewjenks
    Agreed. They'll definitely be some cap savings.

    But Nylander won't realistically get over $7,000,000.

    Ehlers ($6,000,000 x 7) and Larkin ($6,100,000 x 5) are his best comparable's (both contracts start this year).

    A fair assumption for Nylander's contract is probably in the range of $6,500,000 x 6 years (I'll use this below).

    So if we're assessing the value of both players (including contracts):

    1. Gallagher (at $2,750,000) saves $3,750,000 in cap-space. PLUS
    2. Gallagher becomes a UFA after 3 seasons vs Nylander's 6. MINUS
    3. Gallagher may not re-sign (even if he does, UFA contracts are expensive). MINUS
    4. Gallagher has an injury history - Nylander has never been injured. MINUS
    5. Gallagher is 26 years old - Nylander is only 22 years old. MINUS
    6. Gallagher is in his prime - Nylander still has huge upside potential. MINUS
    7. Gallagher has a 54 point career high - Nylander's career low is 61 points. MINUS
    8. Gallagher has a career average 0.58 points per game - Nylander's is 0.75. MINUS
    9. Gallagher has no proven chemistry with Matthews - Nylander does. MINUS
    10. Gallagher definitely can't play center - Nylander might be a good center. MINUS

    Overall, the cap savings provide a lot of value (and so do Gallagher's intangibles).

    But the value is almost completely offset by Gallagher's age, limited upside, 3 year term, and UFA expiry status.

    With that considered: Nylander is the better player now and has the potential to be a much better player down the road.

    For these reasons, I think the Leafs deserve more value (assets) from the trade.


    I always appreciate a constructive beakdown. And very fair points for a debate.

    Having said that, there's a couple that I will argue.
    #1 Gallagher's injuries are not classified as "lingering". They were fractures from blocking shots (bad luck).

    #2 IMO you're over-emphasizing Nylander's chemistry with Matthews. It means that Marner will play with Tavares, which they don't have an existing chemistry. But Matthews and Marner do, they can play together since there's familiarity. If Tavares was to play with Gallagher, it would be the same unfamiliarity as Marner.

    #3 Also I'll add that your statement about Gallagher having reached his ceiling is arguable since he never played with a legit #1 C.

    In essence I'm making this trade based on alot of points you made about Nylander's higher potential, and the fact that by the time the Habs are true "contenders", Gallagher will be past him prime. I'm gambling on everything since I'm willing to give Nylander 7+ mill.

    But I'd like to think that if there were ever any true negotiations about this trade, I wouldn't be giving TO much of an edge on leverage, considering the cap situation, IF in fact Nylander is serious about getting Draisaitl type of contract.
     
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