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I want some of what Dubas is smoking

Created by: junoandkeisha
Team: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Oct. 4, 2018
Published: Oct. 4, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Considering that Chicago is paying their top 4 players a total of $33,375,000, and Toronto is paying Tavares $11,000,00, that means that Toronto would have to pay the other 3 an average of $7M to $8M in order to not blow past Chicago's numbers. Something in the range of $6M, $8M, and $10M. I don't think any of those numbers work. If they bump it up to $7M, $9.5, and $12.5M that would be $40M. I don't see it. Nylander is going to end up being traded.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
8$7,000,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Salary Increase, Auston Matthews
8$11,455,000
Salary Increase, Mitchell Marner
8$8,605,833
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TOR
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    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    22$79,500,000$70,044,166$2,550,000$6,250,000$9,455,834
    Left WingCentreRight Wing
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $2,250,000$2,250,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 3
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    $11,000,000$11,000,000
    C, LW
    NMC
    UFA - 7
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    $894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
    RW
    UFA - 1
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    $650,000$650,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,850,000$3M)
    C
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $7,000,000$7,000,000
    RW
    UFA - 6
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $787,500$787,500
    LW, RW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $4,500,000$4,500,000
    C
    M-NTC
    UFA - 4
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    $863,333$863,333
    RW
    UFA - 1
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    $925,000$925,000
    RW, LW
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    $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
    LW, C
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $650,000$650,000
    RW
    UFA - 1
    Salary Increase, Auston Matthews
    $11,455,000$11,455,000
    Salary Increase, Mitchell Marner
    $8,605,833$8,605,833
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $5,000,000$5,000,000
    LD
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $675,000$675,000
    RD
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $5,000,000$5,000,000
    G
    M-NTC
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $800,000$800,000
    LD
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $675,000$675,000
    G
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
    RD
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
    LD
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $863,333$863,333
    LD/RD
    UFA - 2
    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
    Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
    $5,300,000$5,300,000
    RW
    M-NTC, NMC
    UFA - 2

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    Oct. 4, 2018 at 1:29 p.m.
    #1
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    Comparing Toronto's situation to Chicago's proves that you fundamentally don't understand how to operate in a salary cap.

    Here is the situation in Chicago.

    They underpaid Toews, Kane and Seabrook when they were in their early 20's and were dominating the league. The money they saved on them, they put into overpaying playoff folk heroes and aging vets. Then after their stars carried the team to 3 championships, they paid their stars huge money when they were entering their 30's. Now their stars are good but not super elite anymore and because they have several other bad contracts, they just can't compete.

    Now in the case of Toronto, they are in a much better position, they don't have any bad contracts and draft better than most teams in the league (They are right there with Winnipeg). So giving the stars star money at a point in their career where we can expect them to only get better isn't a problem. It makes the most sense from a value point of view. Players in the NHL on average, have their statistically best season around the age of 24 (look it up with any 10 higher end players), and continue to play close to that level through their 20's before declining in their 30's. The rate of decline varies (see crosby vs Perry, Crosby is still elite in his early 30's while Perry is an 8 million + 3rd liner). So with that in mind, TO can lock up their 3 prized young guys for long term contracts that will provide the highest level of value for the team. (Meaning, they'll get paid fairly for their best years, instead of getting paid what they deserved for what they did in their best years.)

    Chicago is paying their core for what they did in the good old days. Toronto will be paying their stars top dollar for their best years, not the years that follow. Chicago is like LA, paying guys for the glory days that are long gone.
    Oct. 4, 2018 at 1:47 p.m.
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    the leafs dont have any bad contracts? nathan horton?
    Oct. 4, 2018 at 3:55 p.m.
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    Quoting: sens65
    the leafs dont have any bad contracts? nathan horton?


    That wasn't their contract - they dumped Clarkson's deal and in return took Horton's because his was insured and they have the money to pay it out. This current regime (Lou/Dubas) hasn't signed a bad contract so far, which is why Dubas is being VERY cautious in his negotiations with Nylander. If he overpays Nylander, he'll set a precedent and then Marner's and Matthew's agents will respectively ask for overpayments and put this team in cap trouble.
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    Oct. 4, 2018 at 4:23 p.m.
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    Quoting: rush5154
    That wasn't their contract - they dumped Clarkson's deal and in return took Horton's because his was insured and they have the money to pay it out. This current regime (Lou/Dubas) hasn't signed a bad contract so far, which is why Dubas is being VERY cautious in his negotiations with Nylander. If he overpays Nylander, he'll set a precedent and then Marner's and Matthew's agents will respectively ask for overpayments and put this team in cap trouble.


    Curious...
    Everyone in Maple Leaf land seems so put out that Nylander is not yet signed.
    You make a valid point above (both about Chicago vs. Toronto situation as well as overpaying).
    ((side-note...Columbus knew just how difficult Johanssen was going to be so traded him to Nashville for Jones, who in my opinion is an even better player)).

    Question is why so many Armchair GM's seem to value Marner higher on their posts when re-signing both Nylander (2018) and Marner (2019).
    They both play wing, they are very close in age (Marner 1 year younger from contract standpoint), and both have very similar stats...
    (Nylander has 22+39=61 & 20+41=61 in the last 2 years / Marner has 19+42=61 & 22+47=69 in the last 2 years).
    Nylander seems to show between $6M & $7.5M, and most posts show Marner at $8M - $9M.
    Even yours above is $7M vs. $8.6M.
    Why do you value Marner higher than Nylander?
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    Oct. 4, 2018 at 5:09 p.m.
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    I disagree that the five players you've listed are not only expendable but virtually valueless. Every team needs depth, which means bottom 6 forwards and bottom-pairing defensemen. Zaitsev in particular may turn out to be an extremely valuable player -- compare his stats last year to Jake Muzzin's from 2016-2017 and you'll see how wrong a premature evaluation can be. As to Hainsey, I only have to point to Brooks Orpik. I won't bore everyone with my opinion on the others.

    There have been lots of constructions (not only mine) on CapFriendly showing how all of Toronto's free agents-to-be can be re-signed this year and next, with only modest increases in the cap ceiling to $82M or $82.5M. It can and will be done unless Nylander's agent is going to try to insist on re-fighting and winning the battle he lost with Gaudreau a few years ago. And I say that as a labor guy, although my patience is being tested.
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    Oct. 4, 2018 at 5:13 p.m.
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    Quoting: LoganOllivier
    . . . Players in the NHL on average, have their statistically best season around the age of 24 (look it up with any 10 higher end players), and continue to play close to that level through their 20's before declining in their 30's. The rate of decline varies (see Crosby vs Perry; Crosby is still elite in his early 30's while Perry is an 8 million + 3rd liner). So with that in mind, TO can lock up their 3 prized young guys for long term contracts that will provide the highest level of value for the team. (Meaning, they'll get paid fairly for their best years, instead of getting paid what they deserved for what they did in their best years.)

    Chicago is paying their core for what they did in the good old days. Toronto will be paying their stars top dollar for their best years, not the years that follow. Chicago is like LA, paying guys for the glory days that are long gone.


    (I'm only quoting part of your comment to save space.) As usual, every piece of analysis here is spot on -- so accurate that in the two places where you referred to my local teams, I said "ouch."
    Oct. 4, 2018 at 5:24 p.m.
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    Quoting: OldNYIfan
    (I'm only quoting part of your comment to save space.) As usual, every piece of analysis here is spot on -- so accurate that in the two places where you referred to my local teams, I said "ouch."


    Thank you for the kind words. In a different life I think I could have been a successful executive.
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    Oct. 4, 2018 at 5:30 p.m.
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    Quoting: LoganOllivier
    Thank you for the kind words. In a different life I think I could have been a successful executive.


    Yeah, me too . . . I was just looking at your Edmonton post . . . you mention Josh Anderson, who is a player BlueJackets2000 drew my attention to. Las Vegas had a hole on RW that has now been enlarged by Tuch's injury . . . there's some opportunity there.
    Oct. 5, 2018 at 11:03 a.m.
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    Quoting: LoganOllivier
    Comparing Toronto's situation to Chicago's proves that you fundamentally don't understand how to operate in a salary cap.

    Here is the situation in Chicago.

    They underpaid Toews, Kane and Seabrook when they were in their early 20's and were dominating the league. The money they saved on them, they put into overpaying playoff folk heroes and aging vets. Then after their stars carried the team to 3 championships, they paid their stars huge money when they were entering their 30's. Now their stars are good but not super elite anymore and because they have several other bad contracts, they just can't compete.

    Now in the case of Toronto, they are in a much better position, they don't have any bad contracts and draft better than most teams in the league (They are right there with Winnipeg). So giving the stars star money at a point in their career where we can expect them to only get better isn't a problem. It makes the most sense from a value point of view. Players in the NHL on average, have their statistically best season around the age of 24 (look it up with any 10 higher end players), and continue to play close to that level through their 20's before declining in their 30's. The rate of decline varies (see crosby vs Perry, Crosby is still elite in his early 30's while Perry is an 8 million + 3rd liner). So with that in mind, TO can lock up their 3 prized young guys for long term contracts that will provide the highest level of value for the team. (Meaning, they'll get paid fairly for their best years, instead of getting paid what they deserved for what they did in their best years.)

    Chicago is paying their core for what they did in the good old days. Toronto will be paying their stars top dollar for their best years, not the years that follow. Chicago is like LA, paying guys for the glory days that are long gone.


    It's too bad that everyone missed the point of this post.

    1) I raised the Chicago point because their top 4 players are the most in the league. I wasn't comparing Chicago's top 4 to Toronto's top 4. I agree that signing youth to long term is way more valuable. Toronto's 4 have a higher future potential ceiling than Chicago's 4.
    2) I traded those 5 players to show what would need to be done in order to do what Dubas says can be done. Not that I think that have no value. I personally like Conner Brown and Patrick Marleau. (Although they over paid for Marleau) It would be nice to see Zaitsev have a bounce back year. If Gardiner could reduce his bonehead defensive blunders, he would have a shot at being considered a 1 or 2 D by the rest of the league. Hainsey, I am afraid, is washed up.
    Oct. 5, 2018 at 11:06 a.m.
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    Quoting: Bluejackets2000
    Curious...
    Everyone in Maple Leaf land seems so put out that Nylander is not yet signed.
    You make a valid point above (both about Chicago vs. Toronto situation as well as overpaying).
    ((side-note...Columbus knew just how difficult Johanssen was going to be so traded him to Nashville for Jones, who in my opinion is an even better player)).

    Question is why so many Armchair GM's seem to value Marner higher on their posts when re-signing both Nylander (2018) and Marner (2019).
    They both play wing, they are very close in age (Marner 1 year younger from contract standpoint), and both have very similar stats...
    (Nylander has 22+39=61 & 20+41=61 in the last 2 years / Marner has 19+42=61 & 22+47=69 in the last 2 years).
    Nylander seems to show between $6M & $7.5M, and most posts show Marner at $8M - $9M.
    Even yours above is $7M vs. $8.6M.
    Why do you value Marner higher than Nylander?


    I rate Marner higher than Nylander, just like most of the GM's in the league probably do. That's not to say I don't like him as a player, but I think Marner's potential has yet to peak.
    Oct. 5, 2018 at 11:13 a.m.
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    Quoting: junoandkeisha
    It's too bad that everyone missed the point of this post.

    1) I raised the Chicago point because their top 4 players are the most in the league. I wasn't comparing Chicago's top 4 to Toronto's top 4. I agree that signing youth to long term is way more valuable. Toronto's 4 have a higher future potential ceiling than Chicago's 4.
    2) I traded those 5 players to show what would need to be done in order to do what Dubas says can be done. Not that I think that have no value. I personally like Conner Brown and Patrick Marleau. (Although they over paid for Marleau) It would be nice to see Zaitsev have a bounce back year. If Gardiner could reduce his bonehead defensive blunders, he would have a shot at being considered a 1 or 2 D by the rest of the league. Hainsey, I am afraid, is washed up.


    Most people failed to see it but Gardiner made a very smart play in OT on Wednesday when he held the puck and turned back a bit to let Tavares change. He needs to do that with greater conistency and he'll be much better. He loves the stretch pass way too much and tries to move into traffic way too often and thats when he turns things over. If he starts turning back a tad and luring guys in before moving up again he'll find a whole new avenue to be successful.
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    Oct. 5, 2018 at 11:22 a.m.
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    Quoting: LoganOllivier
    Most people failed to see it but Gardiner made a very smart play in OT on Wednesday when he held the puck and turned back a bit to let Tavares change. He needs to do that with greater conistency and he'll be much better. He loves the stretch pass way too much and tries to move into traffic way too often and thats when he turns things over. If he starts turning back a tad and luring guys in before moving up again he'll find a whole new avenue to be successful.


    Most NHL defensemen would have broken into the zone, but Gardiner allowed the play to develop by holding back. It was a smart play. His faults are mostly defensive ones, not offensive. Unfortunately, the league loves those stretch passes now, and Gardiner tries them way too often. It removes the surprise factor.
    Oct. 5, 2018 at 11:56 a.m.
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    Quoting: junoandkeisha
    Most NHL defensemen would have broken into the zone, but Gardiner allowed the play to develop by holding back. It was a smart play. His faults are mostly defensive ones, not offensive. Unfortunately, the league loves those stretch passes now, and Gardiner tries them way too often. It removes the surprise factor.


    Very true, the guy is about as soft as he comes along the boards and in front of his net and he's not very fast anymore so he gets caught from behind too often when he tries to skate it out of his zone. He's gone next year anyways so maybe trade him for a right handed guy like Myers if possible and then put Hainsey down onto the 3rd pairing on his strong side.
     
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