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Nylander is worth way more than people think

Oct. 9, 2018 at 10:24 a.m.
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Check out this article and explain to me why Marner deserves 9+, Laine 10+ and Nylander less than 7?

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/definitive-ranking-nhls-top-20-right-wingers-three-seasons/
Oct. 9, 2018 at 10:26 a.m.
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It really does crack me up when people say that $9M will be money well spent on Marner, but that $7.5M is just Nylander being greedy... very similar players at 5v5 (both very, very good).
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Oct. 9, 2018 at 10:26 a.m.
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Ya TSN, very unbiased.
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Oct. 9, 2018 at 10:32 a.m.
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Quoting: wojme
Ya TSN, very unbiased.


I actually really enjoy those Sportsnet lists. They evaluate a lot more elements of the game than what you'd get from an NHL list or something like that. Most rankings are just fantasy rankings (all about points) that give the edge to the rising names and guys that the media hypes.
Oct. 9, 2018 at 10:33 a.m.
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With all due respect, any article that's written by Sportsnet might as well be thrown in the trash. They pump the Leafs every second they can. Didn't they have an article saying the Selke trophy was "Kadri's to lose?"

Yeah...
Oct. 9, 2018 at 10:34 a.m.
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Dubas/Sportsnet/TSN thinks he is worth exactly $6 million

Right now if another GM wants Nylander, there is gravity pulling the trade-price towards a cheap 3-5 year offer sheet

Timing matters in dealmaking. That's why the Oilers and many other teams, including all the preferred comparables, signed their stars a year ahead of schedule.
A year ago Dubas was worrying about adding old veterans
Oct. 9, 2018 at 10:34 a.m.
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Quoting: wojme
Ya TSN, very unbiased.


Sportsnet and they used the same criteria for all the players in the rankings. I will totally agree with you that Sportsnet has a bias towards the Leafs, however, in this case its a stats based ranking. It does show that Nylander statistically speaking is pretty well equal to Marner. I was shocked to see him ranked as highly as he was, I was also shocked to see Marner ranked so highly.

Secondly, this should quiet people on the whole "trade Nylander for any defenceman who shoots right handed non sense".

The moral of the story, Nylander is an elite talented young player with a tonne of upside. You just don't trade those unless you are getting a major return coming back.
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Oct. 9, 2018 at 10:36 a.m.
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Quoting: ibengals1
With all due respect, any article that's written by Sportsnet might as well be thrown in the trash. They pump the Leafs every second they can. Didn't they have an article saying the Selke trophy was "Kadri's to lose?"

Yeah...


Before you write off the whole article, give it a read. While I'll agree with you on Sportsnet having a bias, those generally are opinion columns. This is a statistical ranking, using the same criteria and metrics for each player which does provide a far more indepth look at the players. This isn't this guy scored more points, therefore he's better. There is a lot more going on in a hockey game than just scoring points.
Oct. 9, 2018 at 10:52 a.m.
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
Sportsnet and they used the same criteria for all the players in the rankings.


If the negotiations stall with Marner, then Marner too will be sandbagged by the same company that owns the team. Is that surprising for you?
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Oct. 9, 2018 at 11:00 a.m.
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Great article, thanks for sharing. While stats don't tell the full story (I've taken a lot of stats courses) this is a pretty solid list. I'm surprised at Nylander's defensive percentile based off of this model, it seems to be pretty common knowledge that his defensive game isn't as dynamic.

Without seeing exactly how Sportsnet calculated their model I don't think it's entirely fair to accuse them of ranking Leafs players "higher than they should be". It's possible their metrics favor Nylander and Marner but again you can't really judge that without seeing their complete methodology.
Oct. 9, 2018 at 11:00 a.m.
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Quoting: tatatavares
If the negotiations stall with Marner, then Marner too will be sandbagged by the same company that owns the team. Is that surprising for you?


What are you even talking about? You are literally the most negative person I may have ever encountered. Find a hobby man! You need joy in your life.
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Oct. 9, 2018 at 11:03 a.m.
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Quoting: arousedcat
Great article, thanks for sharing. While stats don't tell the full story (I've taken a lot of stats courses) this is a pretty solid list. I'm surprised at Nylander's defensive percentile based off of this model, it seems to be pretty common knowledge that his defensive game isn't as dynamic.


If have a hockey background, and watch Nylander you see that he gets a little absent in his own zone at times, but he also doesn't spend much time there. He is very good at blocking passes and stealing the puck in the defensive and neutral zones, that is where his defensive game is strong. The common knowledge you speak of is a narrow minded view that some share. He isn't the best in his own zone, so people will say he's terrible. Its just the way things go now a days, you are either good at something or you're bad at it. According to most people, being okay is the same as being really bad.
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Oct. 9, 2018 at 11:05 a.m.
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Quoting: tatatavares
If the negotiations stall with Marner, then Marner too will be sandbagged by the same company that owns the team. Is that surprising for you?


We will be fine, you’re a rain cloud.

Luckily this list means nothing... stats can go a lot of different ways... if anything this points to Laine being worth about 6m lol.
Oct. 9, 2018 at 11:06 a.m.
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
If have a hockey background, and watch Nylander you see that he gets a little absent in his own zone at times, but he also doesn't spend much time there. He is very good at blocking passes and stealing the puck in the defensive and neutral zones, that is where his defensive game is strong. The common knowledge you speak of is a narrow minded view that some share. He isn't the best in his own zone, so people will say he's terrible. Its just the way things go now a days, you are either good at something or you're bad at it. According to most people, being okay is the same as being really bad.

His zone entry helps a lot with his defensive stats lol...

Players who turn the puck over at the offensive blue line typically have bad defensive stats.
Oct. 9, 2018 at 11:07 a.m.
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
If have a hockey background, and watch Nylander you see that he gets a little absent in his own zone at times, but he also doesn't spend much time there. He is very good at blocking passes and stealing the puck in the defensive and neutral zones, that is where his defensive game is strong. The common knowledge you speak of is a narrow minded view that some share. He isn't the best in his own zone, so people will say he's terrible. Its just the way things go now a days, you are either good at something or you're bad at it. According to most people, being okay is the same as being really bad.


That's very fair. I can't say I've religiously watched his defensive game. Besides, it's not like he needs to be a great defensive forward! Being average at defense for an insanely offensively oriented player such as Nylander is as much as you can ask for.

Edit: I also didn't mean that his defensive game is terrible, just that it isn't as dynamic as his offensive game.
Oct. 9, 2018 at 11:08 a.m.
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Quoting: Jamiepo
We will be fine, you’re a rain cloud.

Luckily this list means nothing... stats can go a lot of different ways... if anything this points to Laine being worth about 6m lol.


They did make a good point of mentioning that Laine is pretty unique and many of his strengths don't quite translate statistically as well as you'd think. He's a guy who is going to score 40+ goals for the next 10 years at least so he's a star no doubt. He'll definitely get overpaid though because the top goal scorers often do. I think Laine should get no more than 8 million a year on a long term deal, only because he's a winger not a centre. Centres contribute way more than wingers so paying a winger a huge contract isn't the smartest of moves.
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Oct. 9, 2018 at 11:10 a.m.
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Quoting: Jamiepo
His zone entry helps a lot with his defensive stats lol...

Players who turn the puck over at the offensive blue line typically have bad defensive stats.


Which Nylander doesn't do much. Of all the Leaf players, he's the guy who is the most secure with the puck, he's the guy I'd want carrying the puck when the game is on the line. He handles the puck better than Matthews and is faster. He eludes defenders, draws them closer and chips it over to an open man better than anyone on the team. This is why his defensive game is stronger than people think.
Oct. 9, 2018 at 11:12 a.m.
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Quoting: arousedcat
That's very fair. I can't say I've religiously watched his defensive game. Besides, it's not like he needs to be a great defensive forward! Being average at defense for an insanely offensively oriented player such as Nylander is as much as you can ask for.

Edit: I also didn't mean that his defensive game is terrible, just that it isn't as dynamic as his offensive game.


It's also why Nylander is so hard to trade, he's really really good and people want him traded for a small upgrade at a different position. In reality, Nylander would be the best player on a lot of teams, how do you trade that for something that isn't equally as elite?
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Oct. 9, 2018 at 11:15 a.m.
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
It's also why Nylander is so hard to trade, he's really really good and people want him traded for a small upgrade at a different position. In reality, Nylander would be the best player on a lot of teams, how do you trade that for something that isn't equally as elite?


He'd be far and away the best player on the Wild, lol, and he's not even the best player on the Leafs. You all are incredibly lucky with the young talent you get to watch. I would kill for ONE of Nylander, Marner, Matthews, or Tavares.
Oct. 9, 2018 at 11:18 a.m.
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Quoting: arousedcat
He'd be far and away the best player on the Wild, lol, and he's not even the best player on the Leafs. You all are incredibly lucky with the young talent you get to watch. I would kill for ONE of Nylander, Marner, Matthews, or Tavares.


It really is a fun time to be a Leafs fan. When your talent level is so strong that Kapanen can't get off the 4th line, things are going well. (Not saying Kapanen is an elite player, but he should be playing higher than 4th line)
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Oct. 9, 2018 at 11:19 a.m.
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I couldn't agree more
Oct. 9, 2018 at 11:59 a.m.
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Every time Nylander's contract numbers come up, I think of Filip Forsberg's current contract. He was 22 when he signed his 6x6 contract and coming off 63 and 64 point seasons with 30+ goals in the last season. Up to that point, Forsberg had played 177 games got 60 goals 72 assists 132 points. Nylander up to this point has 48 goals 87 assists 135 points through 185 games. Forsberg just edges Nylander out in the point production per game 0.746 points per game (Forsberg) vs 0.730 points per game (Nylander). So when looking at point production and age I'd say they're pretty much a dead match as comparable.

Forsberg's new contract kicked in the 16-17 season. At the time the cap was 73 mil. So his contract comes in at 8.2% of the salary cap. 8.2% of this years cap is 6,519,000. So for a 6 year contract i'd expect somewhere in the 6.75-7.0 million range (due to cost of living adjustments). Then to get up to an 8 year contract, add an additional quarter to half a million per contract year to buy out some UFA years. So 7.5M should be about right for an 8 year contract.

The problem isn't that Nylander isn't worth this amount. It's that if Toronto doesn't get good value for this contract they're going to have a hard time keeping the group together as currently built. Nylander's contract is going to set the standard for Marner/Matthews.
Oct. 9, 2018 at 12:03 p.m.
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Quoting: herzausstein
Every time Nylander's contract numbers come up, I think of Filip Forsberg's current contract. He was 22 when he signed his 6x6 contract and coming off 63 and 64 point seasons with 30+ goals in the last season. Up to that point, Forsberg had played 177 games got 60 goals 72 assists 132 points. Nylander up to this point has 48 goals 87 assists 135 points through 185 games. Forsberg just edges Nylander out in the point production per game 0.746 points per game (Forsberg) vs 0.730 points per game (Nylander). So when looking at point production and age I'd say they're pretty much a dead match as comparable.

Forsberg's new contract kicked in the 16-17 season. At the time the cap was 73 mil. So his contract comes in at 8.2% of the salary cap. 8.2% of this years cap is 6,519,000. So for a 6 year contract i'd expect somewhere in the 6.75-7.0 million range (due to cost of living adjustments). Then to get up to an 8 year contract, add an additional quarter to half a million per contract year to buy out some UFA years. So 7.5M should be about right for an 8 year contract.

The problem isn't that Nylander isn't worth this amount. It's that if Toronto doesn't get good value for this contract they're going to have a hard time keeping the group together as currently built. Nylander's contract is going to set the standard for Marner/Matthews.


Sure, I think that's a fair deal as well. However, I don't see the contract coming until November. A contract signed then will have a much higher cap hit this season and the rest of the years of the cap hit will come with a lower hit than the actual average, which is found gold for TO. So Nylander is actually helping the team by holding out.
Oct. 9, 2018 at 12:13 p.m.
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
Sure, I think that's a fair deal as well. However, I don't see the contract coming until November. A contract signed then will have a much higher cap hit this season and the rest of the years of the cap hit will come with a lower hit than the actual average, which is found gold for TO. So Nylander is actually helping the team by holding out.


Depends on how they continue to play without him. They currently don't seem to having problems scoring goals without him. By holding out, he may be proving to them that he truly is expendable to them raising his chances of being traded for D help.
Oct. 9, 2018 at 12:16 p.m.
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Quoting: herzausstein
Depends on how they continue to play without him. They currently don't seem to having problems scoring goals without him. By holding out, he may be proving to them that he truly is expendable to them raising his chances of being traded for D help.


That is a hopeful fan from a different team thought right there. If they are a winner without him, then they are utterly dominant with him. Doesn't matter what anyone says, he's an elite offensive player who is far better all around then most guys say.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/definitive-ranking-nhls-top-20-right-wingers-three-seasons/

You just don't trade someone as good as Nylander for something less than his value.
 
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