Joined: Jun. 2016
Posts: 3,253
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Every time Nylander's contract numbers come up, I think of Filip Forsberg's current contract. He was 22 when he signed his 6x6 contract and coming off 63 and 64 point seasons with 30+ goals in the last season. Up to that point, Forsberg had played 177 games got 60 goals 72 assists 132 points. Nylander up to this point has 48 goals 87 assists 135 points through 185 games. Forsberg just edges Nylander out in the point production per game 0.746 points per game (Forsberg) vs 0.730 points per game (Nylander). So when looking at point production and age I'd say they're pretty much a dead match as comparable.
Forsberg's new contract kicked in the 16-17 season. At the time the cap was 73 mil. So his contract comes in at 8.2% of the salary cap. 8.2% of this years cap is 6,519,000. So for a 6 year contract i'd expect somewhere in the 6.75-7.0 million range (due to cost of living adjustments). Then to get up to an 8 year contract, add an additional quarter to half a million per contract year to buy out some UFA years. So 7.5M should be about right for an 8 year contract.
The problem isn't that Nylander isn't worth this amount. It's that if Toronto doesn't get good value for this contract they're going to have a hard time keeping the group together as currently built. Nylander's contract is going to set the standard for Marner/Matthews.