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Vegas Golden Knights signed Alex Tuch (7 Years / $4,750,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Oct 19 at 5:55 PM
#1
Alex Tuch has signed a new contract with the Vegas Golden Knights.
STANDARD CONTRACT
COMPARE THIS CONTRACT
LENGTH: 7 YEARS
EXPIRY STATUS: UFA
SIGNING TEAM: Vegas Golden Knights
VALUE: $33,250,000
C.H.% : 5.97
SIGNING DATE: October 19, 2018
SOURCE: @FriedgeHNIC
SEASONCLAUSECAP HIT AAV P. BONUSES S. BONUSES BASE SALARY TOTAL SALARY MINORS SALARY
2019-20$4,750,000$4,750,000$0$0$4,750,000$4,750,000$4,750,000
2020-21$4,750,000$4,750,000$0$0$4,750,000$4,750,000$4,750,000
2021-22$4,750,000$4,750,000$0$0$4,750,000$4,750,000$4,750,000
2022-23$4,750,000$4,750,000$0$0$4,750,000$4,750,000$4,750,000
2023-24Modified NTC$4,750,000$4,750,000$0$0$4,750,000$4,750,000$4,750,000
2024-25Modified NTC$4,750,000$4,750,000$0$0$4,750,000$4,750,000$4,750,000
2025-26Modified NTC$4,750,000$4,750,000$0$0$4,750,000$4,750,000$4,750,000
TOTAL$33,250,000$33,250,000$0$0$33,250,000$33,250,000$33,250,000
CLAUSE DETAILS: Player submits a 5 team no trade list.
CLAUSE SOURCE: @PierreVLeBrun
Oct 19 at 6:10 PM
#2
Greatest American
Joined: Oct 2018
Posts: 4
Likes: 1
A little quick I think, but I remember watching him at the WJC like 2 years ago or something and remember he was very aggressive.
Lilka liked this.
Oct 19 at 6:12 PM
#3
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 85
Likes: 33
Just a year or two ago it would have been unthinkable for a player with the track record of Tuch - who has been promising but certainly hasn’t established himself as a star, tho could be there one day - to get a Long-Term deal off of his ELC like this.

It’s almost senseless saying if this is a “good” or “bad” signing as it doesn’t even start til next season, and it’s based on him becoming a player that is NOT yet. In that sense it’s frought with risk for the GK’s. Conversely, if he comes close to being a star and can produce at a 2nd line rate (or even better) for the full duration of this contract then this is a fantastic deal. GMGM must be feeling lucky - or had a good night on the Strip.

This will set a precedent and we could be seeing the start of a trend wherein 21/22 year old middle-6 players sign LTCs (instead of Bridge deals) of their ELCs moving forward. Previously that was reserved for the best of the best. And then the best, and the close to best. Now it could be a free for all. And eventually teams are gonna guess wrong and regret these decisions. This one, it’ll probably be good, but no guarantee. Tuch just doesn’t have the track record yet.
Hockeylover360, Random2152, BostonBeat97 and 2 others liked this.
Oct 19 at 6:48 PM
#4
Habs/Pens fan
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 544
Likes: 113
We'll wait and see if this contract is good.
bixjohnson liked this.
Oct 19 at 6:57 PM
#5
MountRoyal514
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 323
Likes: 86
From what little I saw of Vegas last year he looked like quite a good player, but he just doesn't have much of a track record to judge if he can keep it up.
bixjohnson liked this.
Oct 19 at 9:36 PM
#6
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 304
Likes: 93
Another RFA deal that makes no sense to me from George McPhee and VGK. Such had very little leverage here! Why so expensive? He only put up 37 points last season. I don't understand why Theodore and Such got big extensions after solid but unspectacular years last season, but Karlsson only signed for one season. I remember posting here that if Karlsson had been offered a long term contract at say $7.5M he'd have taken the security in a heartbeat. McPhee is gambling a lot of money and the future of the franchise on last year's rookies. I don't get it. Not very consistent.
Oct 20 at 12:17 AM
#7
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 700
Likes: 81
Quoting: Brian2016
Another RFA deal that makes no sense to me from George McPhee and VGK. Such had very little leverage here! Why so expensive? He only put up 37 points last season. I don't understand why Theodore and Such got big extensions after solid but unspectacular years last season, but Karlsson only signed for one season. I remember posting here that if Karlsson had been offered a long term contract at say $7.5M he'd have taken the security in a heartbeat. McPhee is gambling a lot of money and the future of the franchise on last year's rookies. I don't get it. Not very consistent.


That's a good cap hit for a guy long term though if he increases point production to the 40-50 range.
Oct 20 at 12:40 AM
#8
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 304
Likes: 93
Quoting: goodfella
That's a good cap hit for a guy long term though if he increases point production to the 40-50 range.



He better produce more like 50-60 points for what he's gonna be getting paid. 40 point Wingers are a dime a dozen at $3M AAV.
bixjohnson liked this.
Oct 20 at 5:19 PM
#9
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 700
Likes: 81
Quoting: Brian2016
He better produce more like 50-60 points for what he's gonna be getting paid. 40 point Wingers are a dime a dozen at $3M AAV.


I think he has that potential, but with the cap going up, I'm not sure 3m wingers are expected to do 40 these days.
Hockeyplayer1 liked this.
Oct 21 at 2:17 AM
#10
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 304
Likes: 93
Quoting: goodfella
I think he has that potential, but with the cap going up, I'm not sure 3m wingers are expected to do 40 these days.


Either way, Jonathan Marchessault is probably the best "value" Winger in the league right now. $5M AAV for the next 5 years and he's probably gonna be at least a 70 point scorer this season. He's Vegas's best player imo and would be a value at $7.5M.
Oct 21 at 12:46 PM
#11
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 19,447
Likes: 2,365
Might be a little high at 4.75m, but if the Vegas think he a long term value,, then it makes sense. With a modest rising cap, it's about 3.75m AAV....which is good for # 2 RWer and OK for # 3 RWer.
The first of these such deals was Hamonic of Isles.
Oct 21 at 4:13 PM
#12
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 304
Likes: 93
Quoting: rebecca
Just a year or two ago it would have been unthinkable for a player with the track record of Tuch - who has been promising but certainly hasn’t established himself as a star, tho could be there one day - to get a Long-Term deal off of his ELC like this.

It’s almost senseless saying if this is a “good” or “bad” signing as it doesn’t even start til next season, and it’s based on him becoming a player that is NOT yet. In that sense it’s frought with risk for the GK’s. Conversely, if he comes close to being a star and can produce at a 2nd line rate (or even better) for the full duration of this contract then this is a fantastic deal. GMGM must be feeling lucky - or had a good night on the Strip.

This will set a precedent and we could be seeing the start of a trend wherein 21/22 year old middle-6 players sign LTCs (instead of Bridge deals) of their ELCs moving forward. Previously that was reserved for the best of the best. And then the best, and the close to best. Now it could be a free for all. And eventually teams are gonna guess wrong and regret these decisions. This one, it’ll probably be good, but no guarantee. Tuch just doesn’t have the track record yet.


Sam Reinhart had much better numbers (25G, 25A) last season and scored 47 points 2 seasons ago, as well. He accomplished this feat on a much worse team. He got a 2 year bridge deal w/ an AAV of only $3.65M. So I don't understand the rationale behind the Tuch contract. In my opinion, the downside risk far outweighs the upside potential here. His ceiling is probably no higher than Reinhart's. George McPhee seems to be a little loose with his spending so far. He was ultra conservative w/ Karlsson, yet ultra extravagant w/ Tuch and Theodore. Theodore was way, way overpaid. He's making more than guys like Gostisbhere and Klingberg. Jacob Slavin signed an extension last season for $5.3M AAV. He's much, much better in all facets of the game. Basically, my point is: Why set these precedents when you don't have to? Vegas now has a lot of money tied up on "potential".
bixjohnson liked this.
Oct 23 at 1:11 PM
#13
LAK GM v3
Joined: Sep 2018
Posts: 127
Likes: 30
I look at this contract in two ways:

1) Tuch gets a long term deal and has security with playing in the NHL becoming a reality. His projections and skill-set looks like he might land as a 2nd line player for most NHL teams. His absolute best outcome is landing a 1st line role, but I have doubts that'll ever materialize. Worst case scenario, he finds himself as a 3rd line player and ends up in a "player role" situation, depending on the team's needs.

2) VGK has a contract value that isn't completely "out-to-lunch" below the $5M range that can gain a player they hope for, and can easily be a trade option for teams that have that limited Cap Space for potential playoff runs. I don't see a NMC or a NTC in this contract, so its on Tuch to make his value known to the hockey world with this contract, or bust and trade!

Bottom line is that Tuch is still very young (at 22) and has put up 1 season of numbers worth looking at. If Tuch can get another year in with 40+ points, this deal might be valid. If we see one or two seasons with 55+ points, this will look like McPhee has exceptional forecasting on players and gains the best bang for his buck.
Oct 23 at 10:34 PM
#14
Discord COL's GM
Joined: Mar 2018
Posts: 2,448
Likes: 454
I think this is a cheap deal, but I also feel they signed him to quick.
Oct 24 at 10:13 AM
#15
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 27
Likes: 17
Quoting: rebecca
Just a year or two ago it would have been unthinkable for a player with the track record of Tuch - who has been promising but certainly hasn’t established himself as a star, tho could be there one day - to get a Long-Term deal off of his ELC like this.

It’s almost senseless saying if this is a “good” or “bad” signing as it doesn’t even start til next season, and it’s based on him becoming a player that is NOT yet. In that sense it’s frought with risk for the GK’s. Conversely, if he comes close to being a star and can produce at a 2nd line rate (or even better) for the full duration of this contract then this is a fantastic deal. GMGM must be feeling lucky - or had a good night on the Strip.

This will set a precedent and we could be seeing the start of a trend wherein 21/22 year old middle-6 players sign LTCs (instead of Bridge deals) of their ELCs moving forward. Previously that was reserved for the best of the best. And then the best, and the close to best. Now it could be a free for all. And eventually teams are gonna guess wrong and regret these decisions. This one, it’ll probably be good, but no guarantee. Tuch just doesn’t have the track record yet.



I agree that it's impossible to really rate it as a good/bad deal, it's more like guessing on whether or not it was a good/bad risk to take. We know it's a risk, we know there is upside, we know there is downside, so it's about figuring out what is the floor of what Tuch could be worth over the 7 years, versus the ceiling and whether or not the savings against what he COULD be are worth what was paid over the worst case scenario.

People are comparing it to the approach used Theodore and Karlsson, however I think it's more similar to Colin Miller's deal.

Miller's deal was very middling. It's an amount that you never think is exactly right for a defender. If you are paying a defense men somewhere between $3.5M-$4M you are pretty much guaranteed to either be overpaying or getting a steal, it never feels just right. I think it's because we are starting to see a big separation between those guys that are playing the most valuable minutes and guys you put on the ice to kill time before your good players can get back out there. So for D, that's basically the true top 4 guys versus bottom pairing talent. There are lots of guys playing in top 4 minutes who aren't suited to it, and for those teams those players are a weak link. I think they banked on the fact that Miller has had an excellent track record against bottom of the line up players in a sheltered role, and showed he could play the PP specialist role, so they banked heavily on the fact that his skill set would translate and allow him to play against tougher competition. They got him signed based on something he hasn't proven yet, because if he does, this will be an absolute steal of a contract.

They are trying the same thing with Tuch. The amount is in between what you would expect to pay an offensive driver versus a complimentary player. If Tuch is a complimentary player, then this will be a terrible deal, if he is the type of winger who can drive his line's offensive production, then this will be a steal.

Much like Miller, he looked like a driving force against weaker competition, so it seems they are making a similar bet. So they must figure that this skill set to drive play will translate to better and better performance as he plays higher up the line up with better players.

It's not a horrible idea, but I feel like the dollar amount is probably less of a discount on the higher side of his ability than it was for Miller, and is a lot more over the floor of what he could be than Miller's. It could work out great, but I do think the odds are a little less stacked in Vegas' favour than they were in the Miller deal.

It's interesting to see the way they work their contracts though.
rebecca liked this.
Oct 26 at 6:08 AM
#16
CSickmann
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 16
Likes: 11
Well...
IF it turns out that Tuch is the player that George McPhee expects this could become a bargain

IF NOT than this could become an anchor of a contract ... just as Nate Schmidt (and some others on that team... Hello Patches for that)
Oct 29 at 9:11 PM
#17
GM67
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 113
Likes: 32
Great for him but not team friendly.
Oct 31 at 11:56 PM
#18
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 304
Likes: 93
So far Tuch has been a better value than Pacioretty. That was the mistake by GM George McPhee. Paying UFA's huge money before they prove themselves on your team always seems to backfire.
palhal liked this.
Nov 1 at 7:16 AM
#19
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 19,447
Likes: 2,365
Quoting: Brian2016
So far Tuch has been a better value than Pacioretty. That was the mistake by GM George McPhee. Paying UFA's huge money before they prove themselves on your team always seems to backfire.


I think even worse is that in this case Vegas overpays to trade for Patches and then to justify the trade they feel the need extend him immediately. We see this often whether a RFA or UFA. I wonder how Tampa is going to feel about extending McDonaugh for 7 more years. Getting back to Vegas, James Neal signed as UFA with Calgary for 5.75m. I thought Vegas should've resigned Neal, for less than the 7m Patches and keep all those young assets too.
Brian2016 liked this.
Nov 1 at 8:33 AM
#20
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 304
Likes: 93
Quoting: palhal
I think even worse is that in this case Vegas overpays to trade for Patches and then to justify the trade they feel the need extend him immediately. We see this often whether a RFA or UFA. I wonder how Tampa is going to feel about extending McDonaugh for 7 more years. Getting back to Vegas, James Neal signed as UFA with Calgary for 5.75m. I thought Vegas should've resigned Neal, for less than the 7m Patches and keep all those young assets too.


I agree. Neal doesn't seem to fit in CGY yet either. He definitely fit in well in Vegas. I guarantee the McDonagh extension will backfire big time in 2-3 years, but Tampa is in "win-now mode." Vegas just has way to much money tied up on older players who are on the back end of their careers. The Pacioretty trade and subsequent extension was just too risky considering their other moves this past summer.
 
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