Just a year or two ago it would have been unthinkable for a player with the track record of Tuch - who has been promising but certainly hasn’t established himself as a star, tho could be there one day - to get a Long-Term deal off of his ELC like this.
It’s almost senseless saying if this is a “good” or “bad” signing as it doesn’t even start til next season, and it’s based on him becoming a player that is NOT yet. In that sense it’s frought with risk for the GK’s. Conversely, if he comes close to being a star and can produce at a 2nd line rate (or even better) for the full duration of this contract then this is a fantastic deal. GMGM must be feeling lucky - or had a good night on the Strip.
This will set a precedent and we could be seeing the start of a trend wherein 21/22 year old middle-6 players sign LTCs (instead of Bridge deals) of their ELCs moving forward. Previously that was reserved for the best of the best. And then the best, and the close to best. Now it could be a free for all. And eventually teams are gonna guess wrong and regret these decisions. This one, it’ll probably be good, but no guarantee. Tuch just doesn’t have the track record yet.
I agree that it's impossible to really rate it as a good/bad deal, it's more like guessing on whether or not it was a good/bad risk to take. We know it's a risk, we know there is upside, we know there is downside, so it's about figuring out what is the floor of what Tuch could be worth over the 7 years, versus the ceiling and whether or not the savings against what he COULD be are worth what was paid over the worst case scenario.
People are comparing it to the approach used Theodore and Karlsson, however I think it's more similar to Colin Miller's deal.
Miller's deal was very middling. It's an amount that you never think is exactly right for a defender. If you are paying a defense men somewhere between $3.5M-$4M you are pretty much guaranteed to either be overpaying or getting a steal, it never feels just right. I think it's because we are starting to see a big separation between those guys that are playing the most valuable minutes and guys you put on the ice to kill time before your good players can get back out there. So for D, that's basically the true top 4 guys versus bottom pairing talent. There are lots of guys playing in top 4 minutes who aren't suited to it, and for those teams those players are a weak link. I think they banked on the fact that Miller has had an excellent track record against bottom of the line up players in a sheltered role, and showed he could play the PP specialist role, so they banked heavily on the fact that his skill set would translate and allow him to play against tougher competition. They got him signed based on something he hasn't proven yet, because if he does, this will be an absolute steal of a contract.
They are trying the same thing with Tuch. The amount is in between what you would expect to pay an offensive driver versus a complimentary player. If Tuch is a complimentary player, then this will be a terrible deal, if he is the type of winger who can drive his line's offensive production, then this will be a steal.
Much like Miller, he looked like a driving force against weaker competition, so it seems they are making a similar bet. So they must figure that this skill set to drive play will translate to better and better performance as he plays higher up the line up with better players.
It's not a horrible idea, but I feel like the dollar amount is probably less of a discount on the higher side of his ability than it was for Miller, and is a lot more over the floor of what he could be than Miller's. It could work out great, but I do think the odds are a little less stacked in Vegas' favour than they were in the Miller deal.
It's interesting to see the way they work their contracts though.