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some wings a defenseman

Created by: Eli
Team: 2018-19 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Nov. 6, 2018
Published: Nov. 6, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I'm seeing overpays for 21 goal scorer W. Nylander. McDavid and Burakovsky each got 40 goals and 80 points together in juniors. Should be much cheaper, given the start Burakovsky is having this year, and Burakovsky at 23 with 122 NHL points and a Cup ring might still have almost as much upside as Nylander at 22 with 135 points. Especially when you look at the difference in trade prices.
Trades
1.
EDM
  1. Burakovsky, André
  2. Kammerer, Maximilian
  3. Williams, Colby
Additional Details:
Williams led the Caps' AHL RHD in points and PIM last year. Kammerer is a German-speaking wing prospect, who would fit better with the Oilers after this trade gives them three German speaking forwards, and leaves the Caps with zero.
WSH
  1. Nurse, Darnell
Additional Details:
The Caps end up with 8 defensemen, when healthy, but I think the value is there. You could probably offer Strome and a 2nd, instead, if you think Bura plays on McDavid's left, and lets RNH move back to 3C).
2.
3.
LAK
  1. Lucic, Milan
  2. Russell, Kris
  3. 2019 1st round pick (EDM)
  4. 2020 2nd round pick (EDM)
  5. 2021 3rd round pick (EDM)
Buyouts
Buried
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2018
2019
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2020
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2021
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$79,500,000$77,210,331$0$312,500$2,289,669
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$6,000,000$6,000,000
LW, C
UFA - 3
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$12,500,000$12,500,000
C
UFA - 8
Logo of the Washington Capitals
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,000,000$2,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$8,500,000$8,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 7
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$3,150,000$3,150,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$3,100,000$3,100,000
RW, C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$650,000$650,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$675,000$675,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,150,000$1,150,000
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$800,000$800,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$894,166$894,166 (Performance Bonus$230,000$230K)
RW
RFA - 3
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$650,000$650,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Los Angeles Kings
$7,000,000$7,000,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,166,666$4,166,666
G
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,167,000$4,167,000
LD
UFA - 5
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,166,666$4,166,666
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,500,000$2,500,000
G
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,500,000$5,500,000
LD/RD
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,900,000$1,900,000
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$700,000$700,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$870,000$870,000 (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
RD
UFA - 2

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Nov. 6, 2018 at 9:59 a.m.
#1
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what was the thinking behind the Doughty trade
Nov. 6, 2018 at 10:02 a.m.
#2
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I would also like to know the thinking behind the Domi trade...hes PPG right now...
Nov. 6, 2018 at 10:20 a.m.
#3
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Quoting: Hedman77
what was the thinking behind the Doughty trade


Kings just showed Doughty the money. He promptly showed them the basement of the league. I think he makes the Oilers a better team for the next few years, at a low trade cost, after which he's the new Lucic, and the Oilers are back where they started. LA rebuilds around a couple top five picks, finishing bottom three in a potential lockout year, like Chicago, Pittsburgh and Washington, last lockout, who drafted pretty well for two years, and have accounted, together, for about a third of the championships since? They're three teams, so one would only expect them to combine for one title every ten years. I think having two straight top ten picks coming off of a lockout really helped them each do well.

What am I missing? Help me understand?

Quoting: BrandonMcD11
I would also like to know the thinking behind the Domi trade...hes PPG right now...


PPG? Hadn't noticed. Thanks.

Kotkaniemi and Puljujarvi, as it says above, are top picks out of Finland who might do better this year and for the next few if they play with guys who speak their language. I don't think the Oilers are too picky. Their #4 wing right now was a healthy scratch last year for the Capitals. Chiasson is currently higher on their depth chart than Puljujarvi, who would be an awesome fit for Montreal. You're welcome.
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Nov. 6, 2018 at 10:35 a.m.
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You just remind me that weed is legal in Canada
Nov. 6, 2018 at 11:27 a.m.
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Quoting: Eli
Kotkaniemi and Puljujarvi, as it says above, are top picks out of Finland who might do better this year and for the next few if they play with guys who speak their language. I don't think the Oilers are too picky. Their #4 wing right now was a healthy scratch last year for the Capitals. Chiasson is currently higher on their depth chart than Puljujarvi, who would be an awesome fit for Montreal. You're welcome.


Domi is worth more than Puljujarvi at this point from MTL's perspective, given that he is a C and has more points in his worst season than Puljujarvi has total while not being much older. Kotkaniemi is on a line with too fellow Finns, one of which is from the same hometown, plus Niemi is there. MTL doesn't need to bring in a Finn just because they are from Finland. Plus you want MTL to take on Kassian, a cap dump they already moved on from? This is a terrible deal for Montreal. Puljujarvi might be a decent fit for MTL, but not at that price.
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Nov. 6, 2018 at 12:03 p.m.
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Edited Nov. 6, 2018 at 12:11 p.m.
Quoting: J2W
Domi is worth more than Puljujarvi at this point from MTL's perspective, given that he is a C and has more points in his worst season than Puljujarvi has total while not being much older. Kotkaniemi is on a line with too fellow Finns, one of which is from the same hometown, plus Niemi is there. MTL doesn't need to bring in a Finn just because they are from Finland. Plus you want MTL to take on Kassian, a cap dump they already moved on from? This is a terrible deal for Montreal. Puljujarvi might be a decent fit for MTL, but not at that price.


Thanks. Maybe for Byron, 2nd, future 4th? Or what do you think they would offer?

Edit: Kassian is only signed through next year, a potential lockout year. His buried cap hit this year is 1M. Cost this year is 2M. Oilers don't have cap space for Puljujarvi for Domi straight up. If they manage to dump Lucic on LA they can keep Kassian and almost trade Puljujarvi for Gallagher, but I'm not sure whether that works straight up for MTL. Also, wow, I had no idea Joel Armia was Finnish. What a totally North-American-sounding name. Cool. So they already figured that out, and Edmonton's bigger targets for a top-five pick slowly adjusting to North America (or to find someone to help him adjust) might be Carolina, Philly, and Vegas.
Nov. 6, 2018 at 12:10 p.m.
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Quoting: Eli
Thanks. Maybe for Byron, 2nd, future 4th? Or what do you think they would offer?


For Puljujarvi on his own, I would drop the 4th and make the 2nd conditional, something like .5 pts per game pace while playing at least 40 of the remaining 60 plus games, a 3rd if he doesn't meet that. If kassian is added then I would do scherbak and the lower of MTLs 2nds.
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Nov. 6, 2018 at 12:21 p.m.
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Quoting: J2W
For Puljujarvi on his own, I would drop the 4th and make the 2nd conditional, something like .5 pts per game pace while playing at least 40 of the remaining 60 plus games, a 3rd if he doesn't meet that. If kassian is added then I would do scherbak and the lower of MTLs 2nds.


That conditional is a bad deal. Puljujarvi is an ideal long term linemate for Kotkaniemi on what eventually becomes Montreal's top line, but this year he's an RFA in a contract year. You've given Montreal a second motivation, in addition to cap hit, to limit his ice time. There's no way they play him forty games after signing that deal, so there's no pick. I mean, they're in playoff position with Byron on the bench. I don't think Edmonton sees any increased value in Scherbak because they don't have anyone who speaks Russian either. They'd like to add someone who will fit better in their middle six and score 20 goals right away, and then hopefully not blow up and cost 8M a year like Nylander in all the trades I keep seeing people propose for them.

Byron's a 20 goal supporting guy locked in for the next four years at a 3.5M cap hit, so he fits their immediate needs better, but after that he's 50/50 ready to retire at 33 with money in the bank. Puljujarvi is younger than McDavid and Draisaitl and could be a part of the Oilers for a long time if he sticks around, so I do think draft picks are necessary in that option. Or good prospects. Like, if you meant Byron plus Sherbak, and the Oilers then trade Sherbak for a prospect they think fits their needs better, then it could be win-win?

I'm a Caps fan here, just trying to solve this as a puzzle, but I do think Puljujarvi is insanely talented.
Nov. 6, 2018 at 12:45 p.m.
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Quoting: Eli
That conditional is a bad deal. Puljujarvi is an ideal long term linemate for Kotkaniemi on what eventually becomes Montreal's top line, but this year he's an RFA in a contract year. You've given Montreal a second motivation, in addition to cap hit, to limit his ice time. There's no way they play him forty games after signing that deal, so there's no pick. I mean, they're in playoff position with Byron on the bench. I don't think Edmonton sees any increased value in Scherbak because they don't have anyone who speaks Russian either. They'd like to add someone who will fit better in their middle six and score 20 goals right away, and then hopefully not blow up and cost 8M a year like Nylander in all the trades I keep seeing people propose for them.

Byron's a 20 goal supporting guy locked in for the next four years at a 3.5M cap hit, so he fits their immediate needs better, but after that he's 50/50 ready to retire at 33 with money in the bank. Puljujarvi is younger than McDavid and Draisaitl and could be a part of the Oilers for a long time if he sticks around, so I do think draft picks are necessary in that option. Or good prospects. Like, if you meant Byron plus Sherbak, and the Oilers then trade Sherbak for a prospect they think fits their needs better, then it could be win-win?

I'm a Caps fan here, just trying to solve this as a puzzle, but I do think Puljujarvi is insanely talented.


If Puljujarvi isn't good enough to earn ice time he isn't worth the 2nd, the 3rd if he fails to meet the conditions is just me trying to sweeten the pot, I don't think it's needed. And no I meant that if a cap dump is coming to MTL it would be Scherbak and a 2nd for Puljujarvi and the cap dump. Even then I'm hesitant to give up the 2nd while taking on kassian. Puljujarvi has potential, but obviously their is something wrong and MTL is taking the bigger risk. Honestly, the Oilers are better off keeping Puljujarvi, because with how his career has gone he doesn't have a large amount of value in a trade.
Nov. 6, 2018 at 1:01 p.m.
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Quoting: J2W
If Puljujarvi isn't good enough to earn ice time he isn't worth the 2nd, the 3rd if he fails to meet the conditions is just me trying to sweeten the pot, I don't think it's needed. And no I meant that if a cap dump is coming to MTL it would be Scherbak and a 2nd for Puljujarvi and the cap dump. Even then I'm hesitant to give up the 2nd while taking on kassian. Puljujarvi has potential, but obviously their is something wrong and MTL is taking the bigger risk. Honestly, the Oilers are better off keeping Puljujarvi, because with how his career has gone he doesn't have a large amount of value in a trade.


Well, there have been articles written about whether or not he speaks English. On a team with three other Finnish forwards, that wouldn't be a big deal. On a team with none, he plays an oversimplified game, with a lot of waiting in front of the net for an odd bounce.
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Nov. 6, 2018 at 1:07 p.m.
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Quoting: Eli
Edit: Kassian is only signed through next year, a potential lockout year. His buried cap hit this year is 1M. Cost this year is 2M. Oilers don't have cap space for Puljujarvi for Domi straight up. If they manage to dump Lucic on LA they can keep Kassian and almost trade Puljujarvi for Gallagher, but I'm not sure whether that works straight up for MTL. Also, wow, I had no idea Joel Armia was Finnish. What a totally North-American-sounding name. Cool. So they already figured that out, and Edmonton's bigger targets for a top-five pick slowly adjusting to North America (or to find someone to help him adjust) might be Carolina, Philly, and Vegas.

Kassian is a waste of cap and roster space for MTL, they would probably buy him out but that can't happen until the offseason. MTL set their price for cap dumps when they took Mason on from the Jets.
MTL would never do Domi for Puljujarvi straight up anyway so cap working out in that deal doesn't matter. They also wouldn't do Gallagher for Puljujarvi 1 for 1 either, 1 is a proven 20 goal 50 point energy guy on a decent contract while the other is a 20 year old who can't solidify a spot on a team that has struggled to find winger depth. MTL would likely be happy to take Puljujarvi, but they wouldn't sell the farm for a project.
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Nov. 6, 2018 at 1:12 p.m.
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Quoting: Eli
Well, there have been articles written about whether or not he speaks English. On a team with three other Finnish forwards, that wouldn't be a big deal. On a team with none, he plays an oversimplified game, with a lot of waiting in front of the net for an odd bounce.


That might be the issue but whatever team trades for him is taking the risk that it's something else. At 20 and the end of his elc most teams probably look at him as a potential high reward reclamation project.
Nov. 6, 2018 at 1:26 p.m.
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Edited Nov. 6, 2018 at 1:32 p.m.
Quoting: J2W
That might be the issue but whatever team trades for him is taking the risk that it's something else. At 20 and the end of his elc most teams probably look at him as a potential high reward reclamation project.


Yeah. I think the Caps possibly would trade Burakovsky for him, and see him as someone younger, with similar potential, who hopefully speaks enough Swedish to play with their Swedish forwards (maybe Vrana and Eller get him going at first, while he learns enough English to try to play with Backstrom and Oshie), but then I saw some Oilers builds trading Nurse, whom I think Washington would value more highly, as a potential stay-at-home pairing for Carlson, and for help with penalty killing. Puljujarvi to MTL was just a continuation of the idea that Edmonton could use some wings, and isn't using Puljujarvi up to his potential.
Nov. 6, 2018 at 1:33 p.m.
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Quoting: J2W
If Puljujarvi isn't good enough to earn ice time he isn't worth the 2nd... Puljujarvi has potential, but obviously their is something wrong... he doesn't have a large amount of value in a trade.


Only 10 guys in his draft have more points than him. I get that this is disappointing given he was drafted 4th, but it's early days. I don't think your comments are justified - would you say the same things about Olli Juolevi, Alex Nylander, Tyson Jost or even Tage Thomson? Fans of those teams would hit the roof (justifiably so) if any of these players were traded for a 2nd round pick.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2016e.html
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Nov. 6, 2018 at 1:44 p.m.
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Quoting: CD282
Only 10 guys in his draft have more points than him. I get that this is disappointing given he was drafted 4th, but it's early days. I don't think your comments are justified - would you say the same things about Olli Juolevi, Alex Nylander, Tyson Jost or even Tage Thomson? Fans of those teams would hit the roof (justifiably so) if any of these players were traded for a 2nd round pick.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2016e.html


It's Byron and a 2nd. And yes I would say that any player from that draft that is proving incapable of earning regular ice time is diminishing their value, and are unlikely to get more than a 2nd and an established player with a lower ceiling due to the increasing risk of them not being legitimate NHLers. Every team has their prospects that they are high on that don't seem to be making the leap, other teams don't line up to give up the farm for them. Guys like Puljujarvi are more valuable to their own team, even if it's only for PR reasons, than what they are worth on the trade market.
Nov. 6, 2018 at 2:17 p.m.
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Quoting: J2W
It's Byron and a 2nd. And yes I would say that any player from that draft that is proving incapable of earning regular ice time is diminishing their value, and are unlikely to get more than a 2nd and an established player with a lower ceiling due to the increasing risk of them not being legitimate NHLers. Every team has their prospects that they are high on that don't seem to be making the leap, other teams don't line up to give up the farm for them. Guys like Puljujarvi are more valuable to their own team, even if it's only for PR reasons, than what they are worth on the trade market.


I don't think you realize just how young these players are. Many players haven't yet proved their potential entering their 20-year-old season. Here's a short example:

Ryan Johansen - 21 points
William Nylander - 13 points
Leon Draisaitl - 9 points
Filip Forsberg - 6 points
Mark Scheifele - 1 point
Mikko Rantanen - 0 points
Johnny Gaudreau - 0 points

Then there's the guys who didn't even make the league until their 20-year-old season (or later):

Nikita Kucherov
Alex DeBrincat
Timo Meier
Blake Wheeler
Max Domi
Mathew Barzal
Mark Stone
Viktor Arvidsson

How would it look if the GM's had traded any of these guys for "Byron + a 2nd"? With Puljujarvi you can see the raw skill, he will develop. NHL GM's know this; his value is higher than you think.
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Nov. 6, 2018 at 2:33 p.m.
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Quoting: CD282
I don't think you realize just how young these players are. Many players haven't yet proved their potential entering their 20-year-old season. Here's a short example:

Ryan Johansen - 21 points
William Nylander - 13 points
Leon Draisaitl - 9 points
Filip Forsberg - 6 points
Mark Scheifele - 1 point
Mikko Rantanen - 0 points
Johnny Gaudreau - 0 points

Then there's the guys who didn't even make the league until their 20-year-old season (or later):

Nikita Kucherov
Alex DeBrincat
Timo Meier
Blake Wheeler
Max Domi
Mathew Barzal
Mark Stone
Viktor Arvidsson

How would it look if the GM's had traded any of these guys for "Byron + a 2nd"? With Puljujarvi you can see the raw skill, he will develop. NHL GM's know this; his value is higher than you think.


The biggest issue with Puljujarvi is that he has been given a chance to prove himself, shown by the fact that he is already on the final year of his elc, and he hasn't. His points per game put him at a sub 30 point a season player, while getting ice time beside McDavid. He isn't a guy who went back to junior or to the ahl, he is in his 3rd season at the NHL level and he can't play at a level to earn a spot. You name a few players who didn't produce until after 20, but I would bet more 'top prospects' that don't earn a spot by the end of their elc wind up as depth guys or career ahlers than the number who become high end NHL talent. Ask yourself this, if Puljujarvi was the 20th overall pick and had these struggles, would you still believe he was worth whatever you think he is worth now? What do you think he is worth anyway?
Nov. 6, 2018 at 3:01 p.m.
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Quoting: J2W
The biggest issue with Puljujarvi is that he has been given a chance to prove himself, shown by the fact that he is already on the final year of his elc, and he hasn't. His points per game put him at a sub 30 point a season player, while getting ice time beside McDavid. He isn't a guy who went back to junior or to the ahl, he is in his 3rd season at the NHL level and he can't play at a level to earn a spot. You name a few players who didn't produce until after 20, but I would bet more 'top prospects' that don't earn a spot by the end of their elc wind up as depth guys or career ahlers than the number who become high end NHL talent. Ask yourself this, if Puljujarvi was the 20th overall pick and had these struggles, would you still believe he was worth whatever you think he is worth now? What do you think he is worth anyway?


Puljujarvi did play a couple of half seasons in the AHL. He is in his third partial season. He gets a couple moments a year with McDavid. Puljujarvi is 6th in his draft class in goals, and 10th in even strength points. I know this because I was looking for comparables a couple weeks ago to a 23rd overall draft pick having a slow start this year with the Capitals. The 10th guy in even strength points and 6th guy in even strength goals from the 2013 draft class is 23rd overall pick Andre Burakovsky. So I initially thought Burakovsky and Puljujarvi could be a natural trade for each other. Fans on each side go back and forth. My initial objection was that Burakovsky came into this year with 120 points, plus 16 in the playoffs. Puljujarvi came in with a lot less than that. But they're each struggling right now and maybe a change of scenery and a change of coaching gets them each a new start? Maybe a lucky bounce in game one or two in a new setting gets them more consistent ice time. I hate to give up Burakovsky's playoff heroics (two goals in game seven against Tampa; four points in five games to beat Vegas in the Stanley Cup FInals) and if I did, I think I'd rather see the Caps get back Nurse, especially with Orpik out for the moment; Orpik and Nurse each excel at checking and penalty killing, which are bigger immediate needs for the Caps, after losing Jay Beagle to free agency and Tom Wilson to a suspension. They still have plenty of offense.

Your impulse to compare Puljujarvi to older guys to find out who's turned out successful after a similar start is a good one. In the first five years after his draft year, Burakovsky got 44 goals. That ties him with Logan Couture five years after his draft, but it's ahead of Max Pacioretty or Wayne Simmonds. In the first two years after he was drafted, Burakovsky only had twelve even strength goals, compared to Puljujarvi's 14, so Puljujarvi is on track to one day become..... a guy having a slow start who comes up in trade rumors again in three years. : I don't really know if the first two years are statistically significant, especially because so many people don't get a chance yet, indeed. Puljujarvi falling relative to draft position isn't a great sign. But I'm confident that I understand what his problem is, and that if he moves to a team with a couple other FInnish speaking forwards, he'll do better. There are highlights of him playing at the WJC, where his main strength is in cycling the puck an dsetting up plays from behind the goal line, or making passes across the crease. THen you look at him with Edmonton, and he plays a simple, North-South game, pausing often to stand in front of the net and hope something happens.
Nov. 6, 2018 at 3:24 p.m.
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Quoting: CD282
I don't think you realize just how young these players are. Many players haven't yet proved their potential entering their 20-year-old season. Here's a short example:

Ryan Johansen - 21 points
William Nylander - 13 points
Leon Draisaitl - 9 points
Filip Forsberg - 6 points
Mark Scheifele - 1 point
Mikko Rantanen - 0 points
Johnny Gaudreau - 0 points

Then there's the guys who didn't even make the league until their 20-year-old season (or later):

Nikita Kucherov
Alex DeBrincat
Timo Meier
Blake Wheeler
Max Domi
Mathew Barzal
Mark Stone
Viktor Arvidsson

How would it look if the GM's had traded any of these guys for "Byron + a 2nd"? With Puljujarvi you can see the raw skill, he will develop. NHL GM's know this; his value is higher than you think.


Here's those players pts/gm at the end of their 3rd NHL eligible season (Puljujarvi's current) to remove stat differences caused by different birthdays, and their pts/gm at the end of their elc's.
Puljujarvi (to date) - .26, same stat for both obviously
Ryan Johansen - .31 and .51
William Nylander - .72 and .73
Leon Draisaitl - .72, same stat for both
Filip Forsberg - .69 and .73
Mark Scheifele - .47 and .64
Mikko Rantanen - .74 and .82(currently in final year of elc)
Johnny Gaudreau - .89, same for both stats
Nikita Kucherov - .35 and .82
Alex DeBrincat -.69, same stats for both (3rd year NHL eligible, 1 additional year left on elc)
Timo Meier - .36 and .44 (currently in final year of elc)
Blake Wheeler - was in NCAA and .51
Max Domi - .64 and .61
Mathew Barzal - 1.01 and .99 (1 additional elc year remaining)
Mark Stone - 0 in 4 games and .7
Viktor Arvidsson - .54, same stat for both

As you can see Puljujarvi is not on par with any of them. Players best seasons normally come before age 25, taking on a 20 year old who looks like a potential multi season project just isn't worth multiple good assets. If they Oilers do decide to move Puljujarvi he would likely bring back another project like Ho-Sang, or he would be part of a bigger package that is added to move a pick up a round or get salary retention/allow the Oilers to make a cap dump.
Nov. 6, 2018 at 3:57 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: Eli
Puljujarvi did play a couple of half seasons in the AHL. He is in his third partial season. He gets a couple moments a year with McDavid. Puljujarvi is 6th in his draft class in goals, and 10th in even strength points. I know this because I was looking for comparables a couple weeks ago to a 23rd overall draft pick having a slow start this year with the Capitals. The 10th guy in even strength points and 6th guy in even strength goals from the 2013 draft class is 23rd overall pick Andre Burakovsky. So I initially thought Burakovsky and Puljujarvi could be a natural trade for each other. Fans on each side go back and forth. My initial objection was that Burakovsky came into this year with 120 points, plus 16 in the playoffs. Puljujarvi came in with a lot less than that. But they're each struggling right now and maybe a change of scenery and a change of coaching gets them each a new start? Maybe a lucky bounce in game one or two in a new setting gets them more consistent ice time. I hate to give up Burakovsky's playoff heroics (two goals in game seven against Tampa; four points in five games to beat Vegas in the Stanley Cup FInals) and if I did, I think I'd rather see the Caps get back Nurse, especially with Orpik out for the moment; Orpik and Nurse each excel at checking and penalty killing, which are bigger immediate needs for the Caps, after losing Jay Beagle to free agency and Tom Wilson to a suspension. They still have plenty of offense.

Your impulse to compare Puljujarvi to older guys to find out who's turned out successful after a similar start is a good one. In the first five years after his draft year, Burakovsky got 44 goals. That ties him with Logan Couture five years after his draft, but it's ahead of Max Pacioretty or Wayne Simmonds. In the first two years after he was drafted, Burakovsky only had twelve even strength goals, compared to Puljujarvi's 14, so Puljujarvi is on track to one day become..... a guy having a slow start who comes up in trade rumors again in three years. : I don't really know if the first two years are statistically significant, especially because so many people don't get a chance yet, indeed. Puljujarvi falling relative to draft position isn't a great sign. But I'm confident that I understand what his problem is, and that if he moves to a team with a couple other FInnish speaking forwards, he'll do better. There are highlights of him playing at the WJC, where his main strength is in cycling the puck an dsetting up plays from behind the goal line, or making passes across the crease. THen you look at him with Edmonton, and he plays a simple, North-South game, pausing often to stand in front of the net and hope something happens.


He played enough to burn years of his elc, which means the team gave him a spot and he lost it which is why I say he wasn't sent to the AHL. It was poorly phrased, I should have simple said that he had burned years off his elc while the players mentioned had not in most cases. While comparables from a draft class can be an interesting stat, in the bigger picture it's not overly relevant due to draft classes differing in strength, the game changing from when certain players were drafted, players missing time due to injury and things like that. Also he has played roughly a quarter of hisice time with McDavid according to Corsica.
I think Puljujarvi can still end up being an amazing player in the league, I just don't think he is worth what some do. Like I've said, every team has that prospect they are high on, who the fans swear will turn the corner this season. Some do, most end up as career AHLers, 4th liners, or just as busts. As I've said, Puljujarvi's value to the Oilers is more than his trade value most likely, because to them he is a prospect on about to turn the corner, but to the rest of the league he is a project that might be worthwhile.
Nov. 6, 2018 at 3:59 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: J2W
Here's those players pts/gm at the end of their 3rd NHL eligible season (Puljujarvi's current) to remove stat differences caused by different birthdays, and their pts/gm at the end of their elc's.
Puljujarvi (to date) - .26, same stat for both obviously
Ryan Johansen - .31 and .51
William Nylander - .72 and .73
Leon Draisaitl - .72, same stat for both
Filip Forsberg - .69 and .73
Mark Scheifele - .47 and .64
Mikko Rantanen - .74 and .82(currently in final year of elc)
Johnny Gaudreau - .89, same for both stats
Nikita Kucherov - .35 and .82
Alex DeBrincat -.69, same stats for both (3rd year NHL eligible, 1 additional year left on elc)
Timo Meier - .36 and .44 (currently in final year of elc)
Blake Wheeler - was in NCAA and .51
Max Domi - .64 and .61
Mathew Barzal - 1.01 and .99 (1 additional elc year remaining)
Mark Stone - 0 in 4 games and .7
Viktor Arvidsson - .54, same stat for both

As you can see Puljujarvi is not on par with any of them. Players best seasons normally come before age 25, taking on a 20 year old who looks like a potential multi season project just isn't worth multiple good assets. If they Oilers do decide to move Puljujarvi he would likely bring back another project like Ho-Sang, or he would be part of a bigger package that is added to move a pick up a round or get salary retention/allow the Oilers to make a cap dump.


ELC's can slide for up to two years, so comparing the last year of each players ELC is stupid. You're comparing a guy who is 20 all year to guys who are up to 23, depending on their birthday and when they entered the league - not the same thing at all. Use draft year as a basis next time (draft+1, draft+2, etc.) for a better look at these players.
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Nov. 6, 2018 at 4:12 p.m.
#22
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Quoting: J2W
His points per game put him at a sub 30 point a season player, while getting ice time beside McDavid.


He's played all of 6 minutes with McDavid this season (5v5), and guess what? he scored! He has never been given a regular shift with McDavid this season. Check out the TOI/game in the attached link.

http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&view=log&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2018-10-03&td=2019-04-06&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8479344&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

He simply isn't getting the opportunities most players of his skill level get. McLellan doesn't play him on a skill line and he doesn't let him play on the first PP unit, prefering instead to play Lucic. Even Alex Chiasson, Tobias Rieder, Ty Rattie and Drake Caggiula have spent more time on the first PP unit than Puljujarvi - don't tell me that these guys are better, more skilled or more valuable than Jesse, because they just aren't.
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Nov. 6, 2018 at 4:26 p.m.
#23
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Quoting: CD282
ELC's can slide for up to two years, so comparing the last year of each players ELC is stupid. You're comparing a guy who is 20 all year to guys who are up to 23, depending on their birthday and when they entered the league - not the same thing at all. Use draft year as a basis next time (draft+1, draft+2, etc.) for a better look at these players.


I did, the first number listed is after their 3rd year of NHL eligibility, as in the 3rd season from when they were first draft eligible. Please read more carefully and we can avoid misunderstandings like this. I added the post elc numbers to show where the players you listed were after 3 seasons of playing in the NHL, with all the improvements that can be expected to come with it.
Quoting: CD282
He's played all of 6 minutes with McDavid this season (5v5), and guess what? he scored! He has never been given a regular shift with McDavid this season. Check out the TOI/game in the attached link.

http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&view=log&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2018-10-03&td=2019-04-06&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8479344&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

He simply isn't getting the opportunities most players of his skill level get. McLellan doesn't play him on a skill line and he doesn't let him play on the first PP unit, prefering instead to play Lucic. Even Alex Chiasson, Tobias Rieder, Ty Rattie and Drake Caggiula have spent more time on the first PP unit than Puljujarvi - don't tell me that these guys are better, more skilled or more valuable than Jesse, because they just aren't.


Puljujarvi has played 1307 minutes in his career, he has been on the ice with McDavid for 363 of those, or just over 25%. The fact that he hasn't been able to secure himself a spot means he either isn't as good as you are selling him, or their is an off ice issue that is holding him back. Top end players earn their ice time.
Nov. 6, 2018 at 4:28 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: J2W

Puljujarvi has played 1307 minutes in his career, he has been on the ice with McDavid for 363 of those, or just over 25%. The fact that he hasn't been able to secure himself a spot means he either isn't as good as you are selling him, or their is an off ice issue that is holding him back. Top end players earn their ice time.


Look what happens when Puljujarvi DOES play with skilled centers:

[all numbers 5v5 points/60 and (TOI)]

DRAFT +1
Rantanen w/ MacKinnon: 0.00 (0:43)
Rantanen w/ Duchene: 0.00 (29:09)
Pastrnak w/ Bergeron: 1.31 (45:49)
Pastrnak w/ Krejci: 2.55 (141:15)
Nylander: NO NHL TOI
Puljujarvi w/ McDavid: 2.86 (84:01)
Puljujarvi w/ Draisaitl: 1.67 (107:28)
Laine w/ Scheifele: 3.01 (538:42)
Laine w/ Little: 1.76 (340:13)
Meier: NO NHL TOI

William Nylander and Timo Meier didn't even make the NHL, Puljujarvi’s numbers were very similar to Pastrnak's. Despite the lack of TOI, JP is producing 95% of what Laine is when both players are in the top-6.

DRAFT +2
Rantanen w/ MacKinnon: 1.66 (684:55)
Rantanen w/ Duchene: 0.86 (350:34)
Pastrnak w/ Bergeron: 1.96 (61:19)
Pastrnak w/ Krejci: 2.04 (499:06)
Nylander w/ Kadri: 0.00 (4:57)
Nylander w/ Bozak: 0.00 (1.45)
Puljujarvi w/ McDavid: 1.87 (256:57)**
Puljujarvi w/ McDavid [w/o Lucic]: 2.42 (74:34)**
Puljujarvi w/ Draisaitl: 2.37 (101:22)
Laine w/ Scheifele: 1.13 (52:55)
Laine w/ Little: 1.58 (455:13)
Meier w/ Thornton: 0.93 (64:43)
Meier with Couture: 0.00 (16:43)

Nylander is still at zero, having barely played any NHL time and not having cracked the top-6. Puljujarvi’s numbers are close to Pastrnak’s, the Boston winger is starting to separate in TOI. Rantanen, whose production is well below Puljujarvi's, is getting over 1000 minutes with skill centers! Opportunity is everything here. Laine had his 1st line ice time cut drastically on sub-par production, a fact that is under-reported. Why? Probably because he continued to get cherry PP minutes, something his compatriot never did.

DRAFT +3
Rantanen w/ MacKinnon: 2.28 (946:52)
Rantanen w/ Duchene: 0.00 (12:48)
Pastrnak w/ Bergeron: 2.22 (541:19)
Pastrnak w/ Krejci: 1.54 (429:40)
Nylander w/ Kadri: 2.17 (360:06)
Nylander w/ Matthews: 1.82 (624:42)
Puljujarvi w/ McDavid: 8.76 (6:51) ***
Puljujarvi w/ Draisaitl: 0.00 (31:58) ***
Laine w/ Scheifele: 1.97 (30:25) ***
Laine w/ Little: 0.00 (105:49) ***
Meier w/ Thornton: 1.68 (250:00)
Meier with Couture: 0.00 (85:45)

So those 1000 minutes Rantanen got in the top-6 paid off the next year, he's now scoring at a 1st line pace. Pastrnak and Nylander are doing well too. Laine's struggles are getting more pronounced, but he continues to play on the 1st PP unit (TMac: take note). NONE of these players are scoring better in draft+3 than Puljujarvi did in draft+2.

** Much of this time included Lucic on the other wing, stunting JP's numbers (and McDavid's), so I also show Puljujarvi's P/60 without Lucic
*** These numbers are from this season, so small sample size alert.
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Nov. 6, 2018 at 4:44 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: CD282
Look what happens when Puljujarvi DOES play with skilled centers:

[all numbers 5v5 points/60 and (TOI)]

DRAFT +1
Rantanen w/ MacKinnon: 0.00 (0:43)
Rantanen w/ Duchene: 0.00 (29:09)
Pastrnak w/ Bergeron: 1.31 (45:49)
Pastrnak w/ Krejci: 2.55 (141:15)
Nylander: NO NHL TOI
Puljujarvi w/ McDavid: 2.86 (84:01)
Puljujarvi w/ Draisaitl: 1.67 (107:28)
Laine w/ Scheifele: 3.01 (538:42)
Laine w/ Little: 1.76 (340:13)
Meier: NO NHL TOI

William Nylander and Timo Meier didn't even make the NHL, Puljujarvi’s numbers were very similar to Pastrnak's. Despite the lack of TOI, JP is producing 95% of what Laine is when both players are in the top-6.

DRAFT +2
Rantanen w/ MacKinnon: 1.66 (684:55)
Rantanen w/ Duchene: 0.86 (350:34)
Pastrnak w/ Bergeron: 1.96 (61:19)
Pastrnak w/ Krejci: 2.04 (499:06)
Nylander w/ Kadri: 0.00 (4:57)
Nylander w/ Bozak: 0.00 (1.45)
Puljujarvi w/ McDavid: 1.87 (256:57)**
Puljujarvi w/ McDavid [w/o Lucic]: 2.42 (74:34)**
Puljujarvi w/ Draisaitl: 2.37 (101:22)
Laine w/ Scheifele: 1.13 (52:55)
Laine w/ Little: 1.58 (455:13)
Meier w/ Thornton: 0.93 (64:43)
Meier with Couture: 0.00 (16:43)

Nylander is still at zero, having barely played any NHL time and not having cracked the top-6. Puljujarvi’s numbers are close to Pastrnak’s, the Boston winger is starting to separate in TOI. Rantanen, whose production is well below Puljujarvi's, is getting over 1000 minutes with skill centers! Opportunity is everything here. Laine had his 1st line ice time cut drastically on sub-par production, a fact that is under-reported. Why? Probably because he continued to get cherry PP minutes, something his compatriot never did.

DRAFT +3
Rantanen w/ MacKinnon: 2.28 (946:52)
Rantanen w/ Duchene: 0.00 (12:48)
Pastrnak w/ Bergeron: 2.22 (541:19)
Pastrnak w/ Krejci: 1.54 (429:40)
Nylander w/ Kadri: 2.17 (360:06)
Nylander w/ Matthews: 1.82 (624:42)
Puljujarvi w/ McDavid: 8.76 (6:51) ***
Puljujarvi w/ Draisaitl: 0.00 (31:58) ***
Laine w/ Scheifele: 1.97 (30:25) ***
Laine w/ Little: 0.00 (105:49) ***
Meier w/ Thornton: 1.68 (250:00)
Meier with Couture: 0.00 (85:45)

So those 1000 minutes Rantanen got in the top-6 paid off the next year, he's now scoring at a 1st line pace. Pastrnak and Nylander are doing well too. Laine's struggles are getting more pronounced, but he continues to play on the 1st PP unit (TMac: take note). NONE of these players are scoring better in draft+3 than Puljujarvi did in draft+2.

** Much of this time included Lucic on the other wing, stunting JP's numbers (and McDavid's), so I also show Puljujarvi's P/60 without Lucic
*** These numbers are from this season, so small sample size alert.

He can produce when being carried by skilled centres, is that what you are trying to point out? What is Puljujarvi's issue that he is not placed with McDavid or Draisaitl consistently when the entire off-season and a good portion of last season was the talk in EDM was that they needed a winger for McDavid. Instead of comparing Puljujarvi playing with McDavid and Draisaitl to players on other teams, compare him to others on his team. Are his numbers in line with other, or are they better? Something to prove that he isn't being carried, or at least is being carried less than others because McDavid carries anyone put with him.
 
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