Losing Dermott would hurt if Zaitsev causes it.

Big time, worst come to worst we could trade Zaitsev, it's a modified NMC, so we could dump him to one of the 10 teams on his list

Liljegren will be exempt from the draft if he doesn't play 10 games in the NHL this season. I think Dubas will purposefully not call him up for this fact. Grundstrom will need to be protected however if my understanding is correct. This all assumes that Seattle gets its team for the 2020 season. Unless Hyman has a monster year and scores 25 G and 25A, or if Johnsson doesn't excel with additional playing time, i think i would rather protect Johnsson over Hyman. it would be tough to possibly love Grundstrom too, after his development with the Marlies. Expansion sucks

Where does it say that Zaitsev has anykind of NMC?

My list is currently as follows:
7 Forwards:
Matthews
Marner
Tavares
Nylander
Kadri
Kapanen
Hyman

Notable Exposed:
Johnsson
Brown

3 Defencemen protected:
Rielly
Dermott
Zaitzev

Notable Exposed:
No one

1 Goalie protected
Andersen

Notable Exposed:
Sparks

Just a note: I assume we no longer have Jake Gardiner on the Team.
Another note: I propose we make a trade with Seattle to Keep Brown, a 2nd to take Grundstrom?

Grundstrom would have to be protected if he played 40 games in 2019, because Marleau will still be there and because I think Moore is ahead of him in the system I don't see that happening. He'll definitely play in the Nhl in the 2019 season but probably not 40 games.

As for Lilegren I'm not sure, this what it says on NHL.com

* All first- and second-year professionals, as well as all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward their club's applicable protection limits).

Not sure if the AHL would count for professional experience, but I am pretty sure he will play 40 games in 2019, unless we sign or trade for someone to replace Hainsey

If they keep Liljegren in the AHL long enough, they won't have to protect him. He's not NHL ready yet anyways and probably won't be for a couple season so they might get lucky there and be able to still protect 3 dman besides him. Presumably will be a different d core by then, but as of right now Zaitsev is worth protecting on this team and doesn't have to be protected cause it's only a modified NTC which the Leafs can choose to expose him I beleive without his consent. Freddy vs. Sparks debate yo mentioned is no question. Freddy is protected 10/10 times. He's a top 10 goalie in the league and Sparks will at best be a fringe starter. Leafs have goalies in the system to replace Sparks. Andreas Johnsson will probably be the odd man out and get claimed by Seattle which might hurt depending on his development but he'd also be 25-26 years old by then so it's not terrible to lose him. Leafs could work out a deal to keep him if he develops well but might turn into another Marchessault situation depending what Johnsson is signed for by then. With the depth and top players Toronto have though, I could see them giving up a second and a prospect to protect who they want and have Seattle take who the Leafs want. SHouldn't be an issue and Leafs are one of the few teams still in a good spot again for expansion when it happens as long as they don't do anything stupid between now and then. Also, why the hell would you be paying Leivo and Moore $2.5M? They're bottom 6 players who will be expendable when the big contracts come into play if they ask for that much.

It's a NTC starting next year, does that not count for the expansion draft?

If it takes place in 2021, which is a possibility. Sandin will need to be protected. So you’d lose either Dermott, Sandin, or Liljegren.

I'd keep Grundstrom over Brown just because we are already so deep on the right side and he'll be cheaper at that point then brown

its a modified NTC actually. click on his player profile and the modified NTC kicks in next season

I think if you are under 20 years old the only way to accrue a professional year of experience is to play at least 10 games in the NHL. So as long as LIlgegran doesn't play 10 games in the NHL this year he would still not have technically accrued any professional experience as defined by the CBA. Grundstrom on the other hand has a birthday that falls in a period where his age 19 season in the AHL is technically considered an age 20 season because of when his birthday happens.

NTC is a no trade clause. I don't think getting traded and getting selected in an expansion are the same thing. I think Zaitsev is okay to expose. Only players with full no move clauses have to be protected. This is my understanding anyway.

If he stays on the Marlies for the rest of this year and next he does not need to be protected. No way Dubas and management bring him over to the Marlies this year and risk him being exposed in an expansion.

Thanks for clearing that up.

Wow, so the expansion draft is looking pretty bleak for our forward crop, 5 of Brown, Hyman, Johnsson, Grundstrom, Moore, Leivo exposed

It could be a lot worse. We made out great in the last expansion so we shouldn't get to worked up about this one. It would suck for us to put so much effort into developing Grundstrom, just to watch him get taken and excel in Seattle though. I think i would move on from Brown and Hyman who will soon after need new more expensive contracts, and try and keep the presumably still cheap Grundstrom who has a ton of upside imo. We will be in a big cap crunch at that point and letting go of Brown and Hyman and replacing them with cheap internal options seems like something Dubas would do.

I was going to suggest we make a trade with them to ensure they take Brown lol.

AHL years count as professional years. So yeah he would need to be protected.

Not if he isn't 20 years old yet. Why would Dubas bring him over to the AHL and risk him being exposed in a possible 2021 draft when he could have left him over in sweden for a year and avoided that entirely. AHL seasons played by teenagers do not count as accrued professional experience as defined by the collective bargaining agreement.

By 2020, Johnsson, Hyman and Brown might be all about the same value. Why worry about protecting one or two or them and making a trade. Leave all three exposed, you only lose one. Hyman has only year left till UFA, why protect him over Grundstrom
Nylander, Tavares, Matthews, Kadri, Marner, Grundstrom, Kapanen. That would leave Hyman, Johnsson and Brown exposed.

Defence, Reilly, Dermot and one more. Maybe one of Zaitsev, or Ozhignkov are protected.

I hope Leaf fans don't drive themselves nuts because they are going to lose a good player. Isn't that a good thing? It's because you have a lot of good players. I remember for the Vegas draft, some Leafs fans were worried about losing Leivo or Leipsic. Wow. Now that was crazy silly.

Hmmm I’m seeing that the contract can still ‘’slide’’ or ‘’extend’’ even in the AHL if 18 or 19. But it purely only specify’s contracts. I’m not seeing it say that it doesn’t as a pro year according to the Vegas expansion draft rules.

You got a link?

I wonder if you protect just three Dmen, would you protect the kids, and then leave one year of till UFA Reilly exposed.

Chris Johnston Mentions it in this article.
"Players with two years of professional experience or less will be exempt from the process. Determining who that covers is based on the definition included in the collective bargaining agreement – meaning that 10 games played in the NHL at age 18 or 19 counts as a season, as does any American Hockey League or NHL season for players older than that."

Here.

The leafs actions only make sense if this is the case as well. They could have left both Liljegren and Sandin both play at least one more year home in Sweden and not pose any risk of losing either of them to the 2020 or possible 2021 draft. If AHL season count at age 18 and 19 it is completely terrible asset management knowing that bringing them over that early will cause them to be exposed in a basically guaranteed expansion draft.

My list is currently as follows:
7 Forwards:
Matthews
Marner
Tavares
Nylander
Kadri
Kapanen
Hyman

Notable Exposed:
Johnsson
Brown

3 Defencemen protected:
Rielly
Dermott
Oz
Notable Exposed:
Zaitsev

1 Goalie protected
Andersen

Notable Exposed:
Sparks

They likley take Zaitsev which will work out well. He will be almost 30 I think so he can move on.

My thoughts about expansion draft exposed.....