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Lundqvist trade (very unlikely, but worth looking at)

Created by: thants
Team: 2016-17 New York Rangers
Initial Creation Date: May 9, 2016
Published: May 9, 2016
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
So simple things first:

<strong>Yandle @ $6.5m / 6 yrs</strong>

I think this is the best deal we can make in the off season. I'd rather have him than save a few million going for other good UFAs like Demers and Goligoski. But I could be talked into targetting guys like those two instead if the cap hits require it.

<strong>Kreider @ $4.5m / 6 yrs</strong>

Get him on a slight discount on the long-term by getting RFA and UFA years. (I think I wrote 5 yrs in the signing block; pretend it says 6 yrs instead.)

<strong>Miller @ $3m / 2 yrs</strong>

I'd rather give him term, but this keeps his price down for the short term ends while he is in his last RFA year.

<strong>Hayes @ $2.2m / 2 yrs</strong>

I think he faltered a bit this past year so the price tag can stay a bit low. He'll still have two more RFA years when this ends so we have a bit of flexibility then.

<strong>Buchnevich @ $925k / 3 yrs</strong>

No brainer. Max possible deal. It's worth mentioning that he can get another ~$1.5m in perf. bonuses each year but the perf. bonus cushion means we get to kick that can down the road.

<strong>McIlrath @ $1.1m / 2 yr</strong>

No option arbitration so the team maintains leverage over him.

<strong>Stalberg $1.2m / 2 yrs</strong>

I liked him this year on the fourth line. But honestly there's many other people in this league who could replace him as long as they wanted the same kind of money.

<strong>Girardi bought out</strong>

So I tried not to do this, but it's just way too hard to make a good team that (a) has Girardi on it and (b) has Girardi's cap hit on it. So I bought him out.

The reasoning for trying to keep him was two-fold: (1) His NMC becomes a mNTC in one year so he could possibly be movable in the near future. Highly unlikely, but it's a better option for our cap if we move him, even with retained salary, than if we buy him out. (2) If we have a successful re-tool while retaining Girardi, it means that we have a lot of potential and can vastly improve by removing and replacing him.

All of the same logic above applies to Staal with the exception that his mNTC is two years away.

<strong>Ben Lovejoy @ $1.5m / 1 yr</strong>

Just there to play the part of 7th defenseman. Could be replaced by any other good defenseman in that price range. He serves as a decent veteran presence who can give Skjei or (preferably) Staal some time in the press box if they need motivation to do well.

=======================================================================

Alright, so on to the meat and potatoes. Just to preface:, I don't like this idea, but I did want to investigate it and determine (a) who trading partners might be and (b) what the return might be. Chances are, I might go looking at what other teams might do.

<strong>Lundqvist is traded to Dallas for Kari Lehtonen, (rights to) Valeri Nichushkin, and a 2017 2nd round pick.</strong>

Nichushkin is then signed to a $2.5m / 2 yrs deal.

From a needs standpoint, I think it makes sense. Lundqvist obviously solves Dallas's hugest weakness. It would have to be a goalie swap because of the cap situation that Dallas is in. The Stars can afford to move Nichushkin because of their talent up front.

I think the pick should be a 1st rounder, but I dropped it to a 2nd rounder because I know goalies are often overvalued by their fans (in terms of trade value). So maybe it's conditional on a WCF or SCF visit?

<strong>Now some monkey wrenches.</strong>

1. Lehtonen has an mNTC. I'm guessing that right now he can submit a list of 12 "no trade" locations based on the text of the clause here on CF. Would the NYR be one of them? I'd hope not.

2. The Stars already have the most expensive goalie tandem. This bumps up the goalie tandem by another $2.6m I think they would want to have a destination for Niemi as well before doing this, but Niemi has a mNTC as well.

3. The Stars might be in a general cap crunch next year. They currently have 8 pending UFAs and 3 pending RFAs this summer out of their current 24 roster skaters. (One of those RFAs is Nichushkin.) So this move would leave them with $14.6m in cap space (assuming a $74m cap) while needing to sign <em>at least</em> three bottom-six guys and arguably a top-, second-, and third-pairing defenseman. The top two defenseman alone could easily eat up more than half that space.

4. As mentioned above, Nichushkin is an RFA and the Stars will have a bit of a cap crunch. He could be a really good asset to keep as he would be a "cost-controlled" asset.

5. Lundqvist has a NMC. This trade likely ends before it can even be considered.

6. Do the Stars want to be married to that Lundqvist contract for that long? I worry about that contract once we're in the last few years f it.

7. What does the Rangers' goaltending look like going forward if this deal is done? Lehtonen has been <em>very bad</em> these last two years and I don't think he could be a starter without massively working on his game. But then you have to have the constant worry about Lehtonen getting injured randomly. Raanta is a good backup, but I wouldn't want him taking over 30 games in a year. Hellberg and Skapski look like backup material at most to me. Halverson and Shestyorkin need a lot more time in the minors/college before we should even consider leaning on them. Let them develop. So overall, the goaltending worries me for the rangers if we move Lundqvist.

=======================================================================

<strong>Overall</strong>

This is the first move I can think of if the Rangers want to move Lundqvist. This package for him is more for a re-tool than a rebuild. Overall, I don't like it.

Probably the biggest concern is what this means for the Rangers' goaltending. Lehtonen and Niemi would both be bad returns. I absolutely would not do this unless Benoit Allaire told me that he 100% guaranteed he could fix Lehtonen if we received him. Niemi I wouldn't even consider. He's too sporadic in his play. We don't have anyone in our system right now who can step up to fix this problem. I guess a third option is to get a package that contains no goalie in return and instead look around the market for a new goalie. That's a different post, I suppose.

I still have this feeling that the return needs to be about 50% better for Lundqvist, but I'm currently telling myself that I'm just being a homer. Any outside fans who want to weigh in? Should that package have another pick as well as a B-level prospect? After all, the goalie in return is horrible and is more a cap dump than anything.

I also think there's way too many monkey wrenches for this to happen without some other moves being made first by either team.

So overall, let's not do this one without some major tweaking on the deal. But maybe it can serve as a jumping off point in determining a fair return for Henrik Lundqvist and how that might shape the Rangers' future.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
5$4,500,000
3$3,000,000
2$2,200,000
1$1,100,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$1,200,000
6$6,500,000
Buchnevich, Pavel
3$925,000
Nichushkin, Valeri
2$2,500,000
1$1,500,000
Trades
NYR
  1. Lehtonen, Kari
Additional Details:
2017 2nd round pick; rights to Valeri Nichushkin
Buyouts
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$74,000,000$65,900,000$0$0$8,100,000
Left WingCentreRight Wing
$3,900,000$3,900,000
LW, RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2
$6,500,000$6,500,000
C, RW
UFA - 5
$3,150,000$3,150,000
RW, LW
UFA - 3
$4,500,000$4,500,000
LW
UFA - 4
$3,000,000$3,000,000
C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
$3,000,000$3,000,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 2
Buchnevich, Pavel
$925,000$925,000
$2,200,000$2,200,000
C
UFA - 2
Nichushkin, Valeri
$2,500,000$2,500,000
$1,200,000$1,200,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
$650,000$650,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
$950,000$950,000
RW
UFA - 1
$1,450,000$1,450,000
LW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
$4,700,000$4,700,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
$2,900,000$2,900,000
RD
UFA - 2
$5,900,000$5,900,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$6,500,000$6,500,000
LD
UFA - 7
$1,100,000$1,100,000
RD
UFA - 1
$1,000,000$1,000,000
G
UFA - 2
$925,000$925,000
LD
UFA - 2
$5,700,000$5,700,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 5
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RD
UFA - 3

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May 9, 2016 at 2:35 p.m.
#1
CGY
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IMO the Rangers window to win has closed/is quickly closing (at least with the current core) especially with the emergence of the Caps, Pens and Isles this season. This seasons early playoff exit proves that. Henrik has nothing left to do except win a cup. With the clock winding down on his career, a move to Dallas may be his best chance. If the Rangers were to move on from Hank I wonder if they would try to acquire a few more picks/prospects as the cupboards are bare after years of trying to go for it.
May 9, 2016 at 2:49 p.m.
#2
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I agree with your analysis completely. Not saying any of it might happen just saying i agree with it. Solid post thants!

Ultimately, Lundqvist isn't going anywhere because he doesn't want to go anywhere. The guy will be a Ranger for life. So although it would interesting, it really i just that and nothing more.

The Girardi buyout is a tough pill to swallow but Ranger fans have to come to the reality that his contract for what he brings is just not worth it and no team in the NHL will take it over without A) NYR retaining salary or B) sending an equally bad contract back to the Rags so that it evens out. The trade him with quite a bit of salary retained option is the best route IMO. I think this would be much better for everyone's reputation as well as the sense of honoring a contract. Remember if you buy him out the amount of years the remaining cap has with it is doubled. If you retain salary, its only for the duration of the contract. At least this way its not as long and hell if you retain enough salary, a team might be willing with a prospect in exchange for him. I know he has NMC as well but when given the option to either be bought out or to be traded, i think he'd ultimately reconsider and accept a trade to a team that could really use him.

The Staal contract is another one that needs to be moved out. Signing Yandle means Staal gets 3rd line duties on the LH side. Once again i think he is easily tradable but don't expect a huge return. The goal with trading Staal/Girardi is not to improve your team through the trade, its to take one as little salary as possible and use the freed up cap space to resign/sign new players.


IMO the Rangers are in fine position, they just need to deal with the costly contracts on their backend in Staal and Girardi. Other than that, the rest is fine (even if some others are underachieving like Nash).
May 9, 2016 at 6:00 p.m.
#3
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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The team you constructed is almost the same as before. With the bad contracts it almost impossible to improve the team via trades. When I look at the Eastern Conference, the two teams I see that were in the playoffs this year and who won't be next year....Rangers and Red Wings.

Admitting Dallas may not love Lehtonen, but Lundqvist is certainly not worth his contract either. Agree with Marco....The King is staying a Ranger, whether the Rangers and their fans like it or not.
May 9, 2016 at 6:09 p.m.
#4
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Yandle isn't the answer and Dylan isn't a 2nd pairing Dman. He's 29 years old and just don't know if his D will totally be shot by ages 33-35. He's not a great defender as is. Hank will stay one more season, then waive it after. I think if shat is somehow acquired, it'd help our D and allow Klein to he 2nd pair dman.
May 9, 2016 at 8:15 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: palhal
The team you constructed is almost the same as before. With the bad contracts it almost impossible to improve the team via trades. When I look at the Eastern Conference, the two teams I see that were in the playoffs this year and who won't be next year....Rangers and Red Wings.

Admitting Dallas may not love Lehtonen, but Lundqvist is certainly not worth his contract either. Agree with Marco....The King is staying a Ranger, whether the Rangers and their fans like it or not.


You're saying a team that's largely the same as one that finished 4th in the Eastern Conference last year is not a playoff team next year. I really need to point out how you need to expand on your thoughts there since the conclusion does not follow from your premises as is.

I'd also disagree that Lundqvist isn't worth his contract. That's to imply that few or no teams in is league would take him on with his current cap hit. I find that very hard believe.

Quoting: Philu916
Yandle isn't the answer and Dylan isn't a 2nd pairing Dman. He's 29 years old and just don't know if his D will totally be shot by ages 33-35. He's not a great defender as is. Hank will stay one more season, then waive it after. I think if shat is somehow acquired, it'd help our D and allow Klein to he 2nd pair dman.


Yandle was our second-best defenseman all season despite being underutilized by AV. Get him on top-pairing minutes and on the top PP and he'll be transformative for the team. He also takes a lot of pressure off McDonagh. And as long as he doesn't fall off a cliff like Girardi and Staal, he'll be a fine deal at 33-35. Point production might slip about 10%, but I think we'd still be doing well with a guy who can give us 7-35-42 each year while being a steady defender, which he is.

McIlrath has been a pleasant surprise. I think he'll be a lot better this year when he isn't playing with anchors named Staal and Boyle. He's a 2nd pairing guy.

I don't see how we get Shattenkirk. We don't have many tradeable assets. I rarely see Nash for Shattenkirk deals that make sense to me. I think it's more likely we could sign guys like Demers or Goligoski. But I imagine you'd be concerned about their age.
May 9, 2016 at 9:51 p.m.
#6
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Hello thants: Enjoyed your assessment of the Rangers, and your post has garnered constructive discussion. To answer your questions. The East is very tight and who really knows how performance and injuries (or lack of) will affect the playoff standings. The Rangers seem to have faded late in the season. They likely will lose Yandle, who only cost them 2.65m in cap hit last year. IMO the Rangers are getting old and not better. And with NTCs and just players that are not wanted by other teams at their salaries I don't think there is much room for improvement for the Rangers. And their prospect level is probably among the worse in the league.
Lundqvist: He makes 8.25m a year, only one other goalie is makes over 7m. You probably see the Rangers a lot more than me, but it seems his performance has declined and his age, doesn't his contract go till he's 39, hard to believe he will get better and his contract might be a real hinderance to the Rangers or any team that has him.
 
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