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Leafs 2019-20 - Roster Even with Big AMMM

Created by: Billius
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Nov. 23, 2018
Published: Dec. 1, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
I put this together to show how even high-end assumptions for Marner and Matthews can fit with Nylander next year.
More explanations / writeup in comments.
* updated based on Nylander signing
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$900,000
6$9,500,000
1$1,000,000
1$1,000,000
2$750,000
7$12,000,000
3$2,700,000
3$2,100,000
1$1,000,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$800,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
TBD, RD
2$3,000,000
Defenceman, Reserve
2$800,000
Nylander, William
5$6,969,000
Trades
TOR
  1. 2020 2nd round pick (ANA)
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the ANA
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the SJS
2021
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2022
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$83,000,000$78,074,833$0$132,500$4,925,167
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,700,000$2,700,000
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$12,000,000$12,000,000
C
UFA - 5
Nylander, William
$6,969,000$6,969,000
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,000,000$1,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$9,500,000$9,500,000
RW
UFA - 6
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,100,000$2,100,000
LW, RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$4,500,000$4,500,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$767,500$767,500 (Performance Bonus$132,500$132K)
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$675,000$675,000
C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
TBD, RD
$3,000,000$3,000,000
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$863,333$863,333
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,000,000$1,000,000
RD
UFA
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$750,000$750,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,000,000$1,000,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$675,000$675,000
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,300,000$5,300,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1

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Dec. 1, 2018 at 2:10 p.m.
#1
Leafs Fan
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Looking for feedback and ideas.
This is my latest generation of the Leafs 2019-20.
NOTE THAT I PURPOSEFULLY PUT MATTHEWS AND MARNER $ AT HIGHER-END TO SHOW FEASIBILITY OF NYLANDER SIGNING.

My blog explains almost all of it. Projecting the Leafs 2019-20 Roster

Some changes Dec 1 prior to Nylander decision:
1. Added details on Connor Brown trade - he and Borgman for Rasmussen, a 22 year old RD in Calgary.
2. Rasmussen fills the third pair with Calle Rosen who is now affordable (instead of Marincin)
Dec. 1, 2018 at 2:12 p.m.
#2
Bcarlo25
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1. That isn’t the high end for Matthews and marner.
2. The cap probably won’t be that high

It doesn’t work
Dec. 1, 2018 at 2:23 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: Bcarlo25
1. That isn’t the high end for Matthews and marner.
2. The cap probably won’t be that high

It doesn’t work


What do you see for their $ and for the Cap?
Dec. 1, 2018 at 2:26 p.m.
#4
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1. Cap will not be that high
2. Kap will sign for around $3.5M, if not Leafs will have to let him walk. There is definitely not a chance he takes $2.7M, that will result in the league stepping in for arbitration and ironically, Dzingel with similar numbers and age, will be signed in the off season as a UFA and likely command around $3.5M to $4M give or take.
3. Most importantly, you need to understand how LITR works. You can read up on it on this website. You can just LITR 100% of the player salary prior to the season starting. The Leafs must be cap compliant prior to day 1 of the season. LITR, for full relief, doesn't happen until the 1st day of the season. There is a percentage of overage allowed but it's not even close to the $5M of Horton's cap hit. As a Hawks fan, we know this from the Hossa situation. This has a huge impact on roughly $3.5m they need to have available going into the start of the season. See that you have a blog and you have a lot of good logic on it, so no offense, but a strong suggestion would be that you fully understand the LITR process if you want people to take your blog seriously.
Dec. 1, 2018 at 2:29 p.m.
#5
Bcarlo25
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Quoting: Billius
What do you see for their $ and for the Cap?


12.5 and 10. More for kap, and good luck getting a guy to play on the top pair for 3 million
Dec. 1, 2018 at 2:38 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: Bcarlo25
12.5 and 10. More for kap, and good luck getting a guy to play on the top pair for 3 million


Assume you read the blog, right? It's a placeholder for a Hainsey level mid-quality D to plug the whole, not solve it.
About Kapanen, I covered Kase as a comparable and assumed a bridge.
Dec. 1, 2018 at 2:39 p.m.
#7
Bcarlo25
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Quoting: Billius
Assume you read the blog, right? It's a placeholder for a Hainsey level mid-quality D to plug the whole, not solve it.
About Kapanen, I covered Kase as a comparable and assumed a bridge.


That’s a bad comparable
Dec. 1, 2018 at 2:52 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: ChiHawk
1. Cap will not be that high
2. Kap will sign for around $3.5M, if not Leafs will have to let him walk. There is definitely not a chance he takes $2.7M, that will result in the league stepping in for arbitration and ironically, Dzingel with similar numbers and age, will be signed in the off season as a UFA and likely command around $3.5M to $4M give or take.
3. Most importantly, you need to understand how LITR works. You can read up on it on this website. You can just LITR 100% of the player salary prior to the season starting. The Leafs must be cap compliant prior to day 1 of the season. LITR, for full relief, doesn't happen until the 1st day of the season. There is a percentage of overage allowed but it's not even close to the $5M of Horton's cap hit. As a Hawks fan, we know this from the Hossa situation. This has a huge impact on roughly $3.5m they need to have available going into the start of the season. See that you have a blog and you have a lot of good logic on it, so no offense, but a strong suggestion would be that you fully understand the LITR process if you want people to take your blog seriously.


- On the Salary Cap, reports from the Florida Governor's meeting put the range at between $81.4 and $85.4 (ink in blog).
I took a little under the mid-point but there are those who believe that could be high, we'll have to wait and see.

- You don't think a bridge deal at 2-3 years for Kapanen for $2.7 is realistic? I looked at Ondrej Kase in blog. - both RFA's same draft year, Kase put up good numbers. Dzingel is a UFA with more bargaining power.

- Thanks for reminder on some of the LTIR details, when I did this I confess I took the easy route but I did acknowledge in the blog that any inefficiency by Leafs in using LTIR would hit that $3M reserve I had allocated at RD.
Last season the Leafs did implement LTIR right away (1st or 2nd day?) and did benefit from *most* of the $5.3M in Horton's hit (roughly $5M as I recall). I believe the offseason LTIR buffer is not an issue and would not be a problem, based on my recall of discussions here last season and CF's updated details. Can you explain that more?

Thanks for feedback, this is very helpful.
Dec. 1, 2018 at 3:19 p.m.
#9
hey look a squirrel
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Levio and Sparks will get more than that.
Dec. 1, 2018 at 3:42 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: Trickster
Levio and Sparks will get more than that.


They may not be happy and Leafs may have to fill with someone else. I assumed one player would balk and picked Lindholm but it could be one of them too.
Dec. 1, 2018 at 4:56 p.m.
#11
Buds all day
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Good post... Not a fan of Marleau playing centre though. He seems to be slowing down a little this year and playing centre (even on the 4th line) will make it worse. Why not resign Lindholm and leave Marchment in the A?

Also for those of you debating what Matthews and Marner will make...has it not become clear that Dubas and co will try to grind these guy's AAVs down as much as possible? It not like they're going through this whole Nylander fiasco so they can hand Matthews and Marner blank checks. Matthews will look for 13, Leafs will start at 10.5/11 and they'll probably meet in the middle around 11.5/12. I think they're gonna really try to keep Marner under 10...I mean Kucherov just signed for 9.5 so that seems reasonable...And you know he wouldn't miss 30 games next year trying to squeeze half a million more per year
Dec. 1, 2018 at 5:25 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: JimCarrey
Good post... Not a fan of Marleau playing centre though. He seems to be slowing down a little this year and playing centre (even on the 4th line) will make it worse. Why not resign Lindholm and leave Marchment in the A?

Also for those of you debating what Matthews and Marner will make...has it not become clear that Dubas and co will try to grind these guy's AAVs down as much as possible? It not like they're going through this whole Nylander fiasco so they can hand Matthews and Marner blank checks. Matthews will look for 13, Leafs will start at 10.5/11 and they'll probably meet in the middle around 11.5/12. I think they're gonna really try to keep Marner under 10...I mean Kucherov just signed for 9.5 so that seems reasonable...And you know he wouldn't miss 30 games next year trying to squeeze half a million more per year


Thanks. Yeah I put what I believe to be upper end estimates for AM and MM. But kinda hard to be certain so far away from the end of the season without a confirmed Cap for next season.
Dec. 1, 2018 at 5:27 p.m.
#13
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Breaking: Looks like Nylander's cap hit in 2019-20 will be $6.9M, almost 400K higher than my estimate above. I'll revise this when I get a chance.
Dec. 3, 2018 at 3:23 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: ChiHawk
1. Cap will not be that high
2. Kap will sign for around $3.5M, if not Leafs will have to let him walk. There is definitely not a chance he takes $2.7M, that will result in the league stepping in for arbitration and ironically, Dzingel with similar numbers and age, will be signed in the off season as a UFA and likely command around $3.5M to $4M give or take.
3. Most importantly, you need to understand how LITR works. You can read up on it on this website. You can just LITR 100% of the player salary prior to the season starting. The Leafs must be cap compliant prior to day 1 of the season. LITR, for full relief, doesn't happen until the 1st day of the season. There is a percentage of overage allowed but it's not even close to the $5M of Horton's cap hit. As a Hawks fan, we know this from the Hossa situation. This has a huge impact on roughly $3.5m they need to have available going into the start of the season. See that you have a blog and you have a lot of good logic on it, so no offense, but a strong suggestion would be that you fully understand the LITR process if you want people to take your blog seriously.


Thanks for the star but I'd rather have this report from Pierre Lebrun just announced today Dec 3rd.
"BOG meeting now underway here in Sea Island, Georgia. Part of agenda today is a salary cap projection/range from the league. The cap projection is around $83M for next season, up from $79.5M. That’s an estimate because the league needs to negotiate final number with NHLPA in June"
 
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