I think you are looking at it wrong. Its not hard to keep Matthews, Marner and Nylander. Its hard to keep all of the depth. Which isn't a huge issue when you have guys like Kadri, Andersen and Rielly locked up for the next while.

If you lose some depth wingers like Brown or Johnson and have to bring up a Marlie or two, that isn't really a problem. Connor Brown isn't the reason this team wins the cup, Nylander, Marner, Matthews and Tavares will carry the team wherever it goes.

Finally so truth. Matthews might a little more, nobody knows but it all looks very realistic, and yes defense will be a problem.

I think that depth plays a huge roll in winning a cup. Personally I'd rather have Kapanen, Johnsson and a legitimate top 4 right shot Dman than Nylander. But I definitely understand what you're saying and i do agree that they will need positive contributions from some Marlies moving forward. But that D needs help, especially someone to play with Rielly.

I figured he has to be less than McDavid but a little more than Tavares so 11.5 makes sense to me. Marner should be comparable to Eichel but I think he's the most likely to take some form of discount.

I cannot understand how people have Marner this high when Nylander is at 6.9. Marner is better, but not 2.5 million dollars better.
You can save another million to 1.5 million if you don't overpay Marner.

Also Matthews if he goes higher than JT will likely go to 11.34 to be cute with it, otherwise look for 11aav.

Maybe because every single reputable insider says Matthews and Marner will most likely cost around 23 million. I was being hopeful they could get them for those contracts. Try being realistic and stop dreaming that Dubas can pull off a magic trick to get these kids to sign for a lot less than they're worth.

Just look at Marner's numbers compared to Eichel and you'll see why he will be around 10 mill

Look at Marner's Numbers compared to Nylander. And after this whole Nylander saga you listen to the analysts? They are being just plain stupid if they think Marner gets that much. Look at the numbers yourself, don't have them explain it to you. In fact, here you go.

On to Marner: Marner's stats compared to Nylander, Pasternak, and Gaudreau as of today (am including Pasternak's following season as he did not play very much two seasons before his contract):

Marner points (16-17 - 17-18): 19G/61P - 22G/69P
Nylander points (16-17 - 17-18): 22G/61P - 20G/61P
Gaudreau points: 24G/64P - 30G/78P (14-15 - 15-16 before his contract)
Pasternak points: 15G/26P - 34G/70P - 35G/80P (15-16 (<-- 51 games) - 16-17 - 17-18 mostly before his contract)

Power-Play
Marner: 4ppg - 8ppg | 17ppa - 19ppa
Nylander: 9ppg - 5ppg | 17ppa - 7ppa
Gaudreau: 8ppg - 6ppg| 13ppa - 15ppa
Pasternak: 0 - 10 - 13 ppg | 1-14-13 ppa

Shooting
Marner: 176sog - 194sog | 10.8% - 11.3%
Nylander: 205sog - 184sog | 10.7% - 10.9%
Gaudreau: 167sog - 217sog | 14.4% - 13.8%
Pasternak: 108 - 262 - 246 sog | 13.9 - 14 - 14.2%

Icetime
Marner: 16:49 - 16:23 atoi
Nylander: 16:01 - 16:41 atoi
Gaudreau: 17:43 - 19:56 atoi
Pasternak: 13:57 - 17:59 - 17:58 atoi

Defensive stats:
Marner: 39-25 blocked shots|41-31 5v5 hits | 62 -50 giveaways | 67-85 takeaways
Nylander: 16-18 B.S | 25-21 5v5 hits | 30-54 giveaways | 59-68 takeaways
Gaudreau: 27 - 10 B.S | 14 - 26 5v5 hits | 78 - 90 giveaways | 67 - 41 takeaways
Pasternak: 15-32-31 BLK | 52-72-55 5v5 hits | 51-65-76 giveaways | 35-50-50 takeaways

ADV stats:
Marner: 50.8 - 52.9 CF4 | 0.3 - 3.8 rel | 55.9 - 56.2 Ozone starts
Nylander: 53.2 - 51.4 CF4 | 3.6 - 1.8 rel | 56.8 - 49.8 Ozone starts
Gaudreau: 47.3 - 50.5 CF4 | 3.7-3.1 rel | 56 - 56.7 Ozone starts
Pasternak: 51.9 - 57.8 - 55.5 CF4 | 3.2-4.5-3.1 rel | 51.3 - 57.7 - 62.8 Ozone

Nylander contract: 6@6.9 (6@7.268 with inflation @83 cap)
Gaudreau contract: 6@6.75 (6@7.677 with inflation @83 cap)
Pasternak Contract: 6@6.66 (6@7.378 with inflation @83 cap)
Marner: ?

Now tell me with a straight face Marner gets nearly 10 million aav.

Rielly needs a better partner. That is the only thing that I see as a potential need. With that said, TO without a doubt has a stud #1 d in Rielly. They don't need another stud #1, sure they'd like one, but the cost of that is astronomical. That would cost so much that it doesn't make sense to obtain it. It costs more than its worth. It makes way more sense to just find better value elsewhere. I think with how the team is structured now, adding someone like Chris Tanev would be a far better plan. 1) He'd cost a tenth of the assets to obtain him 2) there is a good likelihood that TO could get Van to retain some salary 3) He is actually what TO needs, a right handed defenceman who can play big minutes, kill penalties and let Rielly do what he does best which is dominate with his skating and vision.

I understand why Blues fans want something like this, it would help them reboot and retool to move forward relatively quickly. But from a TO perspective, its a short sighted trade that only can be called a success if they win the cup once in the next 2 years. If they fail to do that, then it was an expensive waste of assets.

A few things here:
-Gaudreau and Pastrnak signed their contracts over 1 and 2 years ago and you have to count for inflation which is big.
-Pastrnak's contract is an absolute steal and every hockey person knows that so it makes it very hard to use him as a comparable.
-If they signed Marner this past summer then I would say he would've been around 7-8 mill but they didn't because of Willy's debacle.
-The biggest difference between Marner and Nylander is who they played with their first 2 seasons. Marner was stuck with Bozak and JVR for the majority of those years and he carried that line. Nylander has spent 95% of his career with Matthews and the rare times he was on his own line, he struggled. Knowledgeable hockey people can see that and know there is a big difference between the 2 players and Marner is obviously a tier above Nylander.
-I also said to compare him to Eichel (I know Eichel is a centre and Marner is a winger but it still works). Comparing their first 3 seasons in the NHL (Marner is only 1/3 into his 3rd season)
Marner: 186GP, 47G, 121A, 168PTS, 0.90PPG
Eichel: 209GP, 73G, 104A, 177PTS, 0.85PPG

Marner is also on pace for 97 assists and 115 points this year. Even if he slows down and ends up around 100 points, do you really believe they can sign him for 6-7 million?????

1: I did account for inflation. It is literally right there:
Nylander contract: 6@6.9 (6@7.268 with inflation @83 cap)
Gaudreau contract: 6@6.75 (6@7.677 with inflation @83 cap)
Pasternak Contract: 6@6.66 (6@7.378 with inflation @83 cap)

2: Then take pasternak's contract and add a bit. That is still no where near 9-10.
3: He would be worth less than 7.5 if he signed already, that is what the stats say. He isn't so he will get more, thats why I indexed these to next years cap. Get the Marner number based off these, then add a bit for this years production. That still doesn't get you 9-10.

4: Marner played with average guys and was average. He played with elite guys and he is elite. That makes it seem more like JT is carrying him no? So why would they weigh this years total as much as the previous?
5: Eichel is off and above Marner, he is comparable with Matthews (he actually compares quite well). I have those stats too. Ill just link you the whole ACGM: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/884206 I am planning on re doing it after this season with the updated numbers.

6: There is a lot more to hockey than points. It is why my comparisons are so in depth. And remember that Eichel has been injured in both seasons (62 and 67 games).

Yeah Marner is better than Nylander, but not by a huge amount (not like the proposed 2.5 million), so saying Marner gets anything with a 9 or higher is absurd. In fact going much over 8 is almost laughable at this point. Marner at 8@8 is fair right now, with 8.5 being the absolute ceiling if he wins the scoring title and Dubas has a stroke during the contract talks.

Sorry i missed your inflation in your last post.

Calling Marner average the last 2 seasons is funny but I see your point. But I will turn your point around on you. Pastrnak has played almost his entire career with very elite players in Bergeron and The Licker except his first 2 seasons where he only had 26 and 27 points. Sure he didn't play full seasons but Marner had 61 and 69 points carrying "average" players. Also Nylander has played his entire career with a generational talent in Matthews and he still put up worse numbers than Marner, although they were close.

I also couldn't agree with you more that hockey is way more than just points. I'm a big believer is judging players with my eyes and watching them play. Seeing how they control the play and if they can dominate shifts and make their line mates better. Marner does that and just completely dominates soooo many shifts in pretty much every game. He made Bozak and JVR way better than they are and they both cashed in with stupid contracts. Sure he is better with Tavares on his line but again, if you watch the games, the majority of those goals are almost tap ins for JT because of the insane play/pass by Marner. And JT is on pace for a career year with Marner.

Either way, this is a fun debate and I wish we could make a bet. I say Marner's contract will start with at least a 9. What do you want to bet? haha

Oh I like bets. I just won one over willy's contract. Ill go for a 2nd round.

1) Matthews is low to mid 11's (11-11.5) or less.
2) Marner starts with an 8 or less

Book mark this and i'll see yah in 8 months.

Well I agree with you on Matthews. I'm thinking it will be around 11.5. Less than McDavid but more than Tavares.

It's the Marner contract we disagree on. I say over 9 and you say under 9?

What's the bet? haha

Im under 9 you are over 9. Its a bet.
Winner gets to gloat

You got yourself a deal lol

If you want to watch a good hockey podcast show on Youtube, check out my show I do with my friends. It's called "Odd Man Rush"

Ls

Ls??

Why the 1 star?