Come all ye Leaf Trolls - What will MatthersMarner sign for read description - CapFriendly

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Come all ye Leaf Trolls - What will MatthersMarner sign for read description

Created by: Juice

Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Dec. 4, 2018

Published: Dec. 4, 2018

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Come on...you know you want to. You just can't help yourself but to see a Leafs ACGM team and jump on to find something to proclaim as the truth.

All I will say is this....

Matthews:
Anyone who says "Auston will get at least xxx " can go take a flying leap off a bridge. Unless you're regularly talking with the guy, you have no clue. Look, if he demands $13+ million if he worth it? Will the leafs give it to him? I think they'll do whatever they need to in order to keep him. So sure...yes he can demand that and probably get it.

Can you compare him to McDavid money? Sure. Give him the same...or give him the save % of the cap...and it can certainly be justified. But the Leafs can also point to McDavid and Edmonton and ask Matthews if he wants to be surrounded by similar talent as Edmonton or Toronto. Players aren't stupid. Not saying he'll take a huge discount, but I don't think it'd be surprising if he agrees to $11m - $12m (on 7+ years) which is certainly a ton of cash and likely a discount.

Marner:
I will probably take the opposite point of view from most Leaf fans on Marner. I don't think claiming he's a 'hometown kid and will take ..." is realistic. I know (at least from his father), that Marner is looking to piggy pack off of Matthews. Why has his agent come out and said he's not negotiating in-season? The Marner team is waiting for Matthews to sign so they can put his stats up against his and ask for something similar. I think $9.5 for marner would be a huge discount (on 7+ years) but he's realistically over $10m

Will the leafs sign them both? Yes, I think absolutely they will...even if they have to trade all the pieces around them to do it. But come on...tell me what you "know" or how I'm being "adorable". Bring the hate but come prepared to back up your comments.

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Borgman, Andreas	1	$800,000
Carcone, Michael	1	$800,000
Johnsson, Andreas	1	$1,500,000
Kapanen, Kasperi	2	$2,200,000
Marner, Mitchell	8	$10,000,000
Matthews, Auston	8	$11,750,000
Ozhiganov, Igor	1	$900,000
Sparks, Garret	1	$900,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Lindholm, Pär		2	$1,100,000
Brouwer, Troy		1	$800,000

Buyouts

Mikhail Grabovski: $0

Retained Salary Transactions

Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$83,500,000	$77,133,199	$0	$400,000	$6,366,801

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 2	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 6	Marner, Mitchell $10,000,000$10,000,000 RW UFA - 6
Kapanen, Kasperi $2,200,000$2,200,000 RW UFA - 3	Matthews, Auston $11,750,000$11,750,000 C UFA - 5	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 5
Marleau, Patrick $700,000$700,000 LW, C UFA - 1	Kadri, Nazem $4,500,000$4,500,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3	Brown, Connor $2,100,000$2,100,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Johnsson, Andreas $1,500,000$1,500,000 LW, RW UFA - 4	Lindholm, Pär $1,100,000$1,100,000 LW, C UFA - 2
Carcone, Michael $800,000$800,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Gauthier, Frédérik $675,000$675,000 C UFA - 1	Brouwer, Troy $800,000$800,000 LW, RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA - 3	Zaitsev, Nikita $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 5	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Dermott, Travis $863,333$863,333 LD/RD UFA - 1	Ozhiganov, Igor $900,000$900,000 RD UFA
Sandin, Rasmus $894,167$894,167 LD UFA - 3	Liljegren, Timothy $863,333$863,333 ($400,000$400K) RD RFA - 3	Sparks, Garret $900,000$900,000 G UFA - 1
Holl, Justin $675,000$675,000 RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Horton, Nathan $5,300,000$5,300,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Matthews, A.		Tavares, J.		Kadri, N.
	Rielly, M.		Marner, M.

Power Play 2
Marleau, P.		Nylander, W.		Kapanen, K.
	Dermott, T.		Liljegren, T.

Penalty Kill 1
	Hyman, Z.	Brown, C.
	Rielly, M.	Zaitsev, N.

Penalty Kill 2
	Lindholm, P.	Brouwer, T.
	Dermott, T.	Ozhiganov, I.

Dec. 4, 2018 at 4:33 p.m.

TorMapLeafs34

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 93

Likes: 14

Leafs will make cap space for them

Dec. 4, 2018 at 4:36 p.m.

brokos73

Joined: Mar. 2018

Posts: 62

Likes: 6

I think it'll be a win to get Marner for under 10 mill and Matthews under 12 mill.

Could be tough getting Kapanen for that low but I'd love it if they did.

That D scares the crap out of me though. haha

Dec. 4, 2018 at 4:37 p.m.

Juice

Thread Starter

Joined: Apr. 2016

Posts: 3,301

Likes: 1,512

Quoting: TorMapLeafs34

Leafs will make cap space for them

They will for sure. It'll be a dance to see what they ultimately demand/sign for and who their teammates will be as a result.

Dec. 4, 2018 at 4:38 p.m.

Juice

Thread Starter

Joined: Apr. 2016

Posts: 3,301

Likes: 1,512

Quoting: brokos73

Agree with everything you've mentioned.

brokos73 liked this.

Dec. 4, 2018 at 4:40 p.m.

Juice

Thread Starter

Joined: Apr. 2016

Posts: 3,301

Likes: 1,512

The other thing we can't predict right now is Sparks. If he shines when given the chance it might make Andersen available for trade. I personally don't think that'll be the case...but other teams (TB, Pittsburgh, Anaheim) have been able to transition to their younger goalie relatively seamlessly.

Dec. 4, 2018 at 4:48 p.m.

Gauss

Joined: Dec. 2018

Posts: 254

Likes: 94

I think that both Mathews and Marner will sign at a discount. I think they both want to be part of team that will be a cup contender for the next 6+ years with an excellent chance more than one cup in that time. They both will still have the UFA big payday down the road and they can chase the money then.

Mathews loves playing with Nylander and for that reason I think he will sign at 11 million for 7 or 8 eights - same money as Tavares - just so that the leafs do not have to trade Nylander.

I think Marner right now loves playing in Toronto, playing with Tavares, being with the players on this team and will also sign for less that his true worth to keep the team together. Probably between 9-9.5 million per year for 7 or 8 years.

Juice liked this.

Dec. 4, 2018 at 4:57 p.m.

Juice

Thread Starter

Joined: Apr. 2016

Posts: 3,301

Likes: 1,512

Quoting: Gauss

I guess it's all relative. If most hockey heads look at $12.5m as fair value for Matthews...anything less than that is a discount. Then again...he could get a $14m offer sheet and anything less than that is a discount.

Similarly...if Matthews is at $12.5m, it's not unrealistic to say Marner is worth less than $11m. Something tells me he'll push to get to the $10m figure but I hope you're right

Dec. 4, 2018 at 5:02 p.m.

justaBoss

What in tarnation

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 32,709

Likes: 31,449

I think Matthews is gonna be $12M and Marner $10M...I believe those signings are quite correct...except for Kapanen. He's in pace for 50-60 points...there's just no way a guy with those statistics would agree to a $2M deal...

Dec. 4, 2018 at 5:58 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,515

Likes: 22,674

Let's hope the cap is that high and the Leafs aren't carrying over any Performance Bonus
I would prefer Kappy and maybe even Ozhigankov are signed for more even longer term. Grundstrom makes the team. Sandin and Liljegren starting? To me that's too much hopeful, How do the Leaf pay more for the lower end RFAs and maybe a short term quality Dmen. Kadri or Nylander traded for cap space. Nylander would move to centre if Kadri is traded.
Matthews, IMO, he wants to play on a real good team...the Leafs for fun and for international exposure. But Nylander signed a contract that took one year past his UFA. So Matthews does the same, he holds the Leafs "hostage" so he signs 11.5m X 5 years. After a good Leaf run, he's off to New York, maybe LA.
Marner sees the value of being a hometown Leaf. Sittler, Gilmour, Clark, Sundin are held to icon status in this town despite not winning much. Marner signs 9.5 X 8...a Kucherov contract, how can really get much more? He gets to sleep in parents basement so he saves rent. If the Leafs win a Cup in his tenure as Leaf, he will be hometown god, during his playing life, his life, and even after his death.

blowing_the_zone liked this.

Dec. 4, 2018 at 6:00 p.m.

#10

Juice

Thread Starter

Joined: Apr. 2016

Posts: 3,301

Likes: 1,512

Quoting: BurgerBoss

I've posted something of this ilk on other threads...but I don't think it's unrealistic for Kapanen to take a 1-2 year deal between 2-2.5m. Not necessarily saying it's probable...but he's going to try and adjust to the LW now that Nylander is back so that he can stay on the top line. If he does well and can solidify himself as a top line winger...he could set himself up for a $6m + payday in a couple years. I think he has his best chance of achieving that playing with the leafs...and I think he knows that the leafs can't afford to keep him until at least Marleau comes off the books...so maybe he looks at a smaller 2yr deal as a good investment in himself

Dec. 4, 2018 at 6:09 p.m.

#11

NucksFanForLife

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 892

Likes: 301

Quoting: Juice

I agree with the Matthews contract being 11-12 million as elite players tend to be more likely to take discounted contracts, for example see Kucherov's deal. Marner is not like that, and I agree with that as well. Your post is the best I've seen yet of this kind. I tend to disagree with the Kapanen and Johnsson contracts. Kapanen could be given a top line role on other playoff teams so it's a choice between winning a cup and playing in an ideal position. For example, Edmonton would be more than happy to give him 3.5+ million to play with McDavid. Would Kapanen pass that up to have a shot at winning the cup? I honestly don't know. Johnsson has been playing quite well as of late and is a wild card player who could surprise people with a 40 point year. He's not as good as Kapanen, so I see him signing closer to 2 million.

Juice liked this.

Dec. 4, 2018 at 6:10 p.m.

#12

NucksFanForLife

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 892

Likes: 301

I forgot to rate

Dec. 4, 2018 at 6:34 p.m.

#13

UpsideDownQue

Joined: Aug. 2017

Posts: 8,440

Likes: 6,060

they will both take discounts to win.

$7M for Matthews and $6M for Marner.

Dec. 4, 2018 at 6:47 p.m.

#14

Bcarlo25

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 21,147

Likes: 6,988

This is a phenomenal post. I’ve made a lot of posts saying “give marner and Matthews more,” and of course I don’t know anything, I more meant to comment on what I think fair market value is. I think it’s 12.5-13 and 10. Of course they could take less. I think the pitch to Matthews to take less to surround him with more talent would have to be for less term, say 6 years at 11.

Well put all around sir

Juice liked this.

Dec. 4, 2018 at 7:02 p.m.

#15

blowing_the_zone

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 1,540

Quoting: palhal

I like your take on both Matthews and Marners motivations and rationale for signing at those numbers. The fact that Marner can save rent money by living in his basement apartment is the comment of the day!

Dec. 4, 2018 at 9:21 p.m.

#16

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,515

Likes: 22,674

Quoting: blowing_the_zone

Thanks for acknowledging. I'm 64 years old but I had can identify with Mitch when we both 21 years ago. You spend your money/time on booze/drugs and girls. So you have to save money, so your live in your parents basement.

Dec. 4, 2018 at 9:58 p.m.

#17

blowing_the_zone

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 1,540

Quoting: palhal

That's a universal way of life at 21. Come to think of it, its pretty universal as we get older.. we all need a reason to get outta bed in the morning

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